Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Delays to timely admission from emergency departments (EDs) are known to harm patients. OBJECTIVE:To assess and quantify the increased risk of death resulting from delays to inpatient admission from EDs, using Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data in England. METHODS:A cross-sectional, retrospective observational study was carried out of patients admitted from every type 1 (major) ED in England between April 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was death from all causes within 30 days of admission. Observed mortality was compared with expected mortality, as calculated using a logistic regression model to adjust for sex, age, deprivation, comorbidities, hour of day, month, previous ED attendances/emergency admissions and crowding in the department at the time of the attendance. RESULTS:Between April 2016 and March 2018, 26 738 514 people attended an ED, with 7 472 480 patients admitted relating to 5 249 891 individual patients, who constituted the study's dataset. A total of 433 962 deaths occurred within 30 days. The overall crude 30-day mortality rate was 8.71% (95% CI 8.69% to 8.74%). A statistically significant linear increase in mortality was found from 5 hours after time of arrival at the ED up to 12 hours (when accurate data collection ceased) (p<0.001). The greatest change in the 30-day standardised mortality ratio was an 8% increase, occurring in the patient cohort that waited in the ED for more than 6 to 8 hours from the time of arrival. CONCLUSIONS:Delays to hospital inpatient admission for patients in excess of 5 hours from time of arrival at the ED are associated with an increase in all-cause 30-day mortality. Between 5 and 12 hours, delays cause a predictable dose-response effect. For every 82 admitted patients whose time to inpatient bed transfer is delayed beyond 6 to 8 hours from time of arrival at the ED, there is one extra death.

BACKGROUND:Reducing costs while increasing or maintaining quality is crucial to delivering high value care. OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of a hospital value-based management programme on cost and quality. DESIGN/METHODS:Time series analysis of non-psychiatric, non-rehabilitation, non-newborn patients discharged between 1 September 2011 and 31 December 2017 from a US urban, academic medical centre. INTERVENTION/METHODS:NYU Langone Health instituted an institution-wide programme in April 2014 to increase value of healthcare, defined as health outcomes achieved per dollar spent. Key features included joint clinical and operational leadership; granular and transparent cost accounting; dedicated project support staff; information technology support; and a departmental shared savings programme. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Change in variable direct costs; secondary outcomes included changes in length of stay, readmission and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS:The programme chartered 74 projects targeting opportunities in supply chain management (eg, surgical trays), operational efficiency (eg, discharge optimisation), care of outlier patients (eg, those at end of life) and resource utilisation (eg, blood management). The study cohort included 160 434 hospitalisations. Adjusted variable costs decreased 7.7% over the study period. Admissions with medical diagnosis related groups (DRG) declined an average 0.20% per month relative to baseline. Admissions with surgical DRGs had an early increase in costs of 2.7% followed by 0.37% decrease in costs per month. Mean expense per hospitalisation improved from 13% above median for teaching hospitals to 2% above median. Length of stay decreased by 0.25% per month relative to prior trends (95% CI -0.34 to 0.17): approximately half a day by the end of the study period. There were no significant changes in 30-day same-hospital readmission or in-hospital mortality. Estimated institutional savings after intervention costs were approximately $53.9 million. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Observational analysis. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:A systematic programme to increase healthcare value by lowering the cost of care without compromising quality is achievable and sustainable over several years.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. METHODS: We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. FINDINGS: Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0.0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0.11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0.05-0.16, p<0.0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. INTERPRETATION: Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines. FUNDING: Heart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health.

BACKGROUND: -In March 2008, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended stopping antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) for those at risk of infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing dental procedures in the United Kingdom, citing a lack of evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. We have performed a new economic evaluation of AP on the basis of contemporary estimates of efficacy, adverse events, and resource implications. METHODS: -A decision analytic cost-effectiveness model was used. Health service costs and benefits (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) were estimated. Rates of IE before and after the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance were available to estimate prophylactic efficacy. AP adverse event rates were derived from recent UK data, and resource implications were based on English Hospital Episode Statistics. RESULTS: -AP was less costly and more effective than no AP for all patients at risk of IE. The results are sensitive to AP efficacy, but efficacy would have to be substantially lower for AP not to be cost-effective. AP was even more cost-effective in patients at high risk of IE. Only a marginal reduction in annual IE rates (1.44 cases in high-risk and 33 cases in all at-risk patients) would be required for AP to be considered cost-effective at pound20 000 ($26 600) per quality-adjusted life-year. Annual cost savings of pound5.5 to pound8.2 million ($7.3-$10.9 million) and health gains >2600 quality-adjusted life-years could be achieved from reinstating AP in England. CONCLUSIONS: -AP is cost-effective for preventing IE, particularly in those at high risk. These findings support the cost-effectiveness of guidelines recommending AP use in high-risk individuals.

Aims: There are scant comparative data quantifying the risk of infective endocarditis (IE) and associated mortality in individuals with predisposing cardiac conditions. Methods and results: English hospital admissions for conditions associated with increased IE risk were followed for 5 years to quantify subsequent IE admissions. The 5-year risk of IE or dying during an IE admission was calculated for each condition and compared with the entire English population as a control. Infective endocarditis incidence in the English population was 36.2/million/year. In comparison, patients with a previous history of IE had the highest risk of recurrence or dying during an IE admission [odds ratio (OR) 266 and 215, respectively]. These risks were also high in patients with prosthetic valves (OR 70 and 62) and previous valve repair (OR 77 and 60). Patients with congenital valve anomalies (currently considered 'moderate risk') had similar levels of risk (OR 66 and 57) and risks in other 'moderate-risk' conditions were not much lower. Congenital heart conditions (CHCs) repaired with prosthetic material (currently considered 'high risk' for 6 months following surgery) had lower risk than all 'moderate-risk' conditions-even in the first 6 months. Infective endocarditis risk was also significant in patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic devices. Conclusion: These data confirm the high IE risk of patients with a history of previous IE, valve replacement, or repair. However, IE risk in some 'moderate-risk' patients was similar to that of several 'high-risk' conditions and higher than repaired CHC. Guidelines for the risk stratification of conditions predisposing to IE may require re-evaluation.

IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:Menu labeling has been implemented in restaurants in some US jurisdictions as early as 2008, but the extent to which menu labeling is associated with calories purchased is unclear. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To estimate the association of menu labeling with calories and nutrients purchased and assess geographic variation in results. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:A cohort study was conducted with a quasi-experimental design using actual transaction data from Taco Bell restaurants from calendar years 2007 to 2014 US restaurants with menu labeling matched to comparison restaurants using synthetic control methods. Data were analyzed from May to October 2023. EXPOSURE/UNASSIGNED:Menu labeling policies in 6 US jurisdictions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:The primary outcome was calories per transaction. Secondary outcomes included total and saturated fat, carbohydrates, protein, sugar, fiber, and sodium. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:The final sample included 2329 restaurants, with menu labeling in 474 (31 468 restaurant-month observations). Most restaurants (94.3%) were located in California. Difference-in-differences model results indicated that customers purchased 24.7 (95% CI, 23.6-25.7) fewer calories per transaction from restaurants in the menu labeling group in the 3- to 24-month follow-up period vs the comparison group, including 21.9 (95% CI, 20.9-22.9) fewer calories in the 3- to 12-month follow-up period and 25.0 (95% CI, 24.0-26.1) fewer calories in the 13- to 24-month follow-up period. Changes in the nutrient content of transactions were consistent with calorie estimates. Findings in California were similar to overall estimates in magnitude and direction; yet, among restaurants outside of California, no association was observed in the 3- to 24-month period. The outcome of menu labeling also differed by item category and time of day, with a larger decrease in the number of tacos vs other items purchased and a larger decrease in calories purchased during breakfast vs other times of the day in the 3- to 24-month period. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:In this quasi-experimental cohort study, fewer calories were purchased in restaurants with calorie labels compared with those with no labels, suggesting that consumers are sensitive to calorie information on menu boards, although associations differed by location.

BACKGROUND:Overprescribing of antibiotics for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) remains a major issue in outpatient settings. Use of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing but they remain underutilized by physicians and advanced practice providers. A registered nurse (RN)-led model of an electronic health record-integrated CPR (iCPR) for low-acuity ARIs may be an effective alternative to address the barriers to a physician-driven model. METHODS:Following qualitative usability testing, we will conduct a stepped-wedge practice-level cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT) examining the effect of iCPR-guided RN care for low acuity patients with ARI. The primary hypothesis to be tested is: Implementation of RN-led iCPR tools will reduce antibiotic prescribing across diverse primary care settings. Specifically, this study aims to: (1) determine the impact of iCPRs on rapid strep test and chest x-ray ordering and antibiotic prescribing rates when used by RNs; (2) examine resource use patterns and cost-effectiveness of RN visits across diverse clinical settings; (3) determine the impact of iCPR-guided care on patient satisfaction; and (4) ascertain the effect of the intervention on RN and physician burnout. DISCUSSION:This study represents an innovative approach to using an iCPR model led by RNs and specifically designed to address inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. This study has the potential to provide guidance on the effectiveness of delegating care of low-acuity patients with ARIs to RNs to increase use of iCPRs and reduce antibiotic overprescribing for ARIs in outpatient settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04255303, Registered February 5 2020, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04255303 .

BACKGROUND:Hospital acquired anemia is common during admission and can result in increased transfusion and length of stay. Recumbent posture is known to lead to lower hemoglobin measurements. We tested to see if an initiative promoting evening lab draws would lead to higher hemoglobin measurements due to more time in upright posture during the day and evening. METHODS:We included patients hospitalized on 2 medical units, beginning March 26, 2020 and discharged prior to January 25, 2021. On one of the units, we implemented an initiative to have routine laboratory draws in the evening rather than the morning starting on August 26, 2020. There were 1217 patients on the control unit and 1265 on the intervention unit during the entire study period. First we used a linear mixed-effects model to see if timing of blood draw was associated with hemoglobin level in the pre-intervention period. We then compared levels of hemoglobin before and after the intervention using a difference-in-difference analysis. RESULTS:In the pre-intervention period, evening blood draws were associated with higher hemoglobin compared to morning (0.28; 95% CI, 0.22-0.35). Evening blood draws increased with the intervention (10.3% vs 47.9%, P > 0.001). However, the intervention floor was not associated with hemoglobin levels in difference-in-difference analysis (coefficient of -0.15; 95% CI, -0.51-0.21). CONCLUSIONS:While evening blood draws were associated with higher hemoglobin levels, an intervention that successfully changed timing of routine labs to the evening did not lead to an increase in hemoglobin levels.