Faculty Bibliography

Time is of the essence in evaluating potential drugs and biologics for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. There are currently 876 randomized clinical trials (phase 2 and 3) of treatments for COVID-19 registered on clinicaltrials.gov. Covariate adjustment is a statistical analysis method with potential to improve precision and reduce the required sample size for a substantial number of these trials. Though covariate adjustment is recommended by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency, it is underutilized, especially for the types of outcomes (binary, ordinal, and time-to-event) that are common in COVID-19 trials. To demonstrate the potential value added by covariate adjustment in this context, we simulated two-arm, randomized trials comparing a hypothetical COVID-19 treatment versus standard of care, where the primary outcome is binary, ordinal, or time-to-event. Our simulated distributions are derived from two sources: longitudinal data on over 500 patients hospitalized at Weill Cornell Medicine New York Presbyterian Hospital and a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention preliminary description of 2449 cases. In simulated trials with sample sizes ranging from 100 to 1000 participants, we found substantial precision gains from using covariate adjustment-equivalent to 4-18% reductions in the required sample size to achieve a desired power. This was the case for a variety of estimands (targets of inference). From these simulations, we conclude that covariate adjustment is a low-risk, high-reward approach to streamlining COVID-19 treatment trials. We provide an R package and practical recommendations for implementation.

The consistency of doubly robust estimators relies on the consistent estimation of at least one of two nuisance regression parameters. In moderate-to-large dimensions, the use of flexible data-adaptive regression estimators may aid in achieving this consistency. However, n^1/2 -consistency of doubly robust estimators is not guaranteed if one of the nuisance estimators is inconsistent. In this paper, we present a doubly robust estimator for survival analysis with the novel property that it converges to a Gaussian variable at an n^1/2 -rate for a large class of data-adaptive estimators of the nuisance parameters, under the only assumption that at least one of them is consistently estimated at an n^1/4 -rate. This result is achieved through the adaptation of recent ideas in semiparametric inference, which amount to (i) Gaussianizing (ie, making asymptotically linear) a drift term that arises in the asymptotic analysis of the doubly robust estimator and (ii) using cross-fitting to avoid entropy conditions on the nuisance estimators. We present the formula of the asymptotic variance of the estimator, which allows for the computation of doubly robust confidence intervals and p values. We illustrate the finite-sample properties of the estimator in simulation studies and demonstrate its use in a phase III clinical trial for estimating the effect of a novel therapy for the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer.

We present a general method for estimating the effect of a treatment on an ordinal outcome in randomized trials. The method is robust in that it does not rely on the proportional odds assumption. Our estimator leverages information in prognostic baseline variables, and has all of the following properties: (i) it is consistent; (ii) it is locally efficient; (iii) it is guaranteed to have equal or better asymptotic precision than both the inverse probability-weighted and the unadjusted estimators. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first estimator of the causal relation between a treatment and an ordinal outcome to satisfy these properties. We demonstrate the estimator in simulations based on resampling from a completed randomized clinical trial of a new treatment for stroke; we show potential gains of up to 39% in relative efficiency compared to the unadjusted estimator. The proposed estimator could be a useful tool for analyzing randomized trials with ordinal outcomes, since existing methods either rely on model assumptions that are untenable in many practical applications, or lack the efficiency properties of the proposed estimator. We provide R code implementing the estimator.

IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:The comparative effectiveness of 2 transitions of care programs for improving health status and reducing readmissions among patients hospitalized with heart failure is unknown. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To compare the effectiveness adding mobile integrated health (MIH) to a transitions of care coordinator for improving health status and reducing 30-day all-cause readmissions among patients discharged after heart failure. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:The Mighty-Heart randomized clinical trial included Medicare- or Medicaid-enrolled adult (≥18 years) patients hospitalized with heart failure in 11 New York City (New York) hospitals between January 2021 and September 2024. Participants were randomized 1:1 to MIH or TOCC. TOCC provided a follow-up call by a nurse 48 to 72 hours after discharge. MIH included the same TOCC postdischarge call, and added ongoing nurse care coordination, community paramedic home visits, and facilitated synchronous telehealth with emergency medicine physicians. Data analysis occurred between September 2024 and June 2025. INTERVENTIONS/UNASSIGNED:Receiving MIH plus TOCC or TOCC alone during the first 30 days after hospital discharge. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:Coprimary outcomes were health status at 30 days measured with the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary score, and 30-day all-cause hospital readmission, with heart failure-specific readmissions as a secondary outcome. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Among 2003 participants (median [IQR] age, 67 [58-78] years; 1040 female [52%]), no adjusted differences were observed in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary score at 30 days between MIH and TOCC groups (mean difference, 1.83; 95% CI, -0.75 to 4.40; P = .16). Exploratory analysis showed a significant age-by-treatment interaction effect, with younger participants who received MIH having larger improvement in health status (β: 4.40; 95% CI, 1.01 to 7.79). There were no significant differences in overall 30-day readmissions between study groups (20.3% vs 20.4%; odds ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.19; P = .95). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:This randomized clinical trial found that MIH conferred no additional benefit on health status or 30-day readmissions for postacute patients with heart failure compared to TOCC alone. Preliminary subgroup analyses suggest potential variations in MIH effects by age and sex; therefore, further research is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION/UNASSIGNED:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04662541.

We estimated the extent to which different pain management practices, considered together as well as individually, mediated the relationship between chronic pain or physical disability and new-onset opioid use disorder (OUD) in a large cohort of adult Medicaid patients. Considering the plausibility of the assumptions required to identify different mediational estimands, we estimated natural indirect effects when considering mediation through the group of mediators together and estimated interventional indirect effects when considering mediation through each pain management practice individually. We estimated each effect using a nonparametric one-step estimator. The pain management variables we examined mediated all of the total effect of chronic pain on OUD risk and nearly half of the total effect of physical disability on OUD risk. High-dose, long-duration opioid prescribing and co-prescription of opioids with benzodiazepines, gabapentinoids, and muscle relaxants each contributed substantially to the increased risk of OUD due to chronic pain (contributing to 10-37% of the overall effect) and more moderately to the increased risk of OUD due to physical disability (contributing to 3-19% of the overall effect). Antidepressant or anti-inflammatory prescribing and physical therapy generally did not contribute to increased OUD risk, and, in some cases, even contributed to small reductions in risk.