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Development and Validation of the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT) Equations

Khan, Sadiya S; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Grams, Morgan E; Surapaneni, Aditya; Blaha, Michael J; Carson, April P; Chang, Alexander R; Ciemins, Elizabeth; Go, Alan S; Gutierrez, Orlando M; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Jassal, Simerjot K; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Shlipak, Michael G; Palaniappan, Latha P; Sperling, Laurence; Virani, Salim S; Tuttle, Katherine; Neeland, Ian J; Chow, Sheryl L; Rangaswami, Janani; Pencina, Michael J; Ndumele, Chiadi E; Coresh, Josef; ,
PMID: 37947085
ISSN: 1524-4539
CID: 5607782

Trial Emulation Methods

Shin, Jung-Im; Grams, Morgan E
PMID: 37783304
ISSN: 1523-6838
CID: 5614162

Predictors of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) among COVID-19 Patients at the US Department of Veterans Affairs: The Important Role of COVID-19 Vaccinations

Lukowsky, Lilia R; Der-Martirosian, Claudia; Northcraft, Heather; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Goldfarb, David S; Dobalian, Aram
BACKGROUND:There are knowledge gaps about factors associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) among COVID-19 patients. To examine AKI predictors among COVID-19 patients, a retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted between January 2020 and December 2022. Logistic regression models were used to examine predictors of AKI, and survival analysis was performed to examine mortality in COVID-19 patients. RESULTS:A total of 742,799 veterans diagnosed with COVID-19 were included and 95,573 were hospitalized within 60 days following COVID-19 diagnosis. A total of 45,754 developed AKI and 28,573 AKI patients were hospitalized. Use of vasopressors (OR = 14.73; 95% CL 13.96-15.53), history of AKI (OR = 2.22; CL 2.15-2.29), male gender (OR = 1.90; CL 1.75-2.05), Black race (OR = 1.62; CL 1.57-1.65), and age 65+ (OR = 1.57; CL 1.50-1.63) were associated with AKI. Patients who were vaccinated twice and boosted were least likely to develop AKI (OR = 0.51; CL 0.49-0.53) compared to unvaccinated COVID-19 patients. Patients receiving two doses (OR = 0.77; CL = 0.72-0.81), or a single dose (OR = 0.88; CL = 0.81-0.95) were also less likely to develop AKI compared to the unvaccinated. AKI patients exhibited four times higher mortality compared to those without AKI (HR = 4.35; CL 4.23-4.50). Vaccinated and boosted patients had the lowest mortality risk compared to the unvaccinated (HR = 0.30; CL 0.28-0.31). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Use of vasopressors, being unvaccinated, older age, male gender, and Black race were associated with post COVID-19 AKI. Whether COVID-19 vaccination, including boosters, decreases the risk of developing AKI warrants additional studies.
PMCID:10892207
PMID: 38400130
ISSN: 2076-393x
CID: 5634622

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and the risk of atrial fibrillation in adults with diabetes: a real-world study

Xu, Yunwen; Boyle, Thomas A; Lyu, Beini; Ballew, Shoshana H; Selvin, Elizabeth; Chang, Alexander R; Inker, Lesley A; Grams, Morgan E; Shin, Jung-Im
BACKGROUND:Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) have cardiovascular benefits in type 2 diabetes, but none of the cardiovascular trials studied atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF) as a primary endpoint. Data from post-marketing surveillance studies remains sparse. OBJECTIVE:To examine the real-world risk of AF comparing GLP-1RA with other non-insulin glucose-lowering agents. DESIGN/METHODS:Cohort study using de-identified electronic health record data from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Adult patients with diabetes who were newly prescribed add-on non-insulin glucose-lowering agents and were on metformin between 2005-2020. EXPOSURES/METHODS:New users of GLP-1RA were separately compared with new users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), using 1:1 propensity score matching to adjust for differences in patient characteristics. MAIN MEASURES/METHODS:The primary outcome was incident AF, defined and captured by diagnosis code for AF. Incidence rate difference (IRD) and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated in the matched cohorts. KEY RESULTS/RESULTS:In the matched cohort of 14,566 pairs of GLP-1RA and DPP4i followed for a median of 3.8 years, GLP-1RA use was associated with a lower risk of AF (IRD, -1.0; 95% CI, -1.8 to -0.2 per 1000 person-years; HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.96). In the matched cohort of 9,424 pairs of patients on GLP-1RA and SGLT2i with a median follow-up of 2.9 years, there was no difference in the risk for AF (IRD, 0.4; 95% CI -0.7 to 1.5 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.42). CONCLUSIONS:In this real-word study, GLP-1RA was associated with a lower risk of AF compared with DPP4i, but no difference compared with SGLT2i, suggesting that cardiovascular benefits of GLP-1RA use may extend to prevention for AF in patients with diabetes. Our findings call for future randomized controlled trials to focus on the effects of GLP-1RA on AF prevention.
PMID: 38191976
ISSN: 1525-1497
CID: 5642282

Climate change and kidney stones

Maline, Grace E; Goldfarb, David S
PURPOSE OF REVIEW/OBJECTIVE:Kidney stones affect an increasing proportion of the population. We suggest that these trends are in part influenced by exposure to higher temperatures as a result of climate change and urbanization. The changing epidemiology of kidney stones is a topic worthy of discussion due to the economic and healthcare burden the condition poses as well as the quality-of-life disruption faced by individuals with kidney stones. RECENT FINDINGS/RESULTS:The relationship between heat and kidney stones is well supported. Exposure to high temperatures has been shown to increase risk for stone development within a short time frame. Effects are modified by factors such as sex, comorbid conditions, and population vulnerability and adaptability. Urban heat islands (UHIs) likely exaggerate the effect of increasing global surface temperature. The concentration of UHIs often coincides with historic redlining practices in the United States, potentially contributing to observed disparities in kidney health among minoritized populations. As global surface temperature increases and urbanization trends continue, a greater proportion of the world's population is exposed to significant temperature extremes each year, leading to the expectation that kidney stone prevalence will continue to increase. SUMMARY/CONCLUSIONS:This work describes the effect of increasing global surface temperature as a result of climate change on kidney stone disease and kidney health. These effects may result in further perpetuation of significant kidney stone related social disparities. We suggest strategies to mitigate the effects of heat exposure on stone formation.
PMID: 37725125
ISSN: 1473-6543
CID: 5611462

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and the risk of atrial fibrillation in adults with diabetes: a real-world study

Xu, Yunwen; Boyle, Thomas A.; Lyu, Beini; Ballew, Shoshana H.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Chang, Alexander R.; Inker, Lesley A.; Grams, Morgan E.; Shin, Jung Im
Background: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) have cardiovascular benefits in type 2 diabetes, but none of the cardiovascular trials studied atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF) as a primary endpoint. Data from post-marketing surveillance studies remains sparse. Objective: To examine the real-world risk of AF comparing GLP-1RA with other non-insulin glucose-lowering agents. Design: Cohort study using de-identified electronic health record data from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse. Participants: Adult patients with diabetes who were newly prescribed add-on non-insulin glucose-lowering agents and were on metformin between 2005-2020. Exposures: New users of GLP-1RA were separately compared with new users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), using 1:1 propensity score matching to adjust for differences in patient characteristics. Main Measures: The primary outcome was incident AF, defined and captured by diagnosis code for AF. Incidence rate difference (IRD) and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated in the matched cohorts. Key Results: In the matched cohort of 14,566 pairs of GLP-1RA and DPP4i followed for a median of 3.8 years, GLP-1RA use was associated with a lower risk of AF (IRD, -1.0; 95% CI, -1.8 to -0.2 per 1000 person-years; HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.96). In the matched cohort of 9,424 pairs of patients on GLP-1RA and SGLT2i with a median follow-up of 2.9 years, there was no difference in the risk for AF (IRD, 0.4; 95% CI -0.7 to 1.5 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.42). Conclusions: In this real-word study, GLP-1RA was associated with a lower risk of AF compared with DPP4i, but no difference compared with SGLT2i, suggesting that cardiovascular benefits of GLP-1RA use may extend to prevention for AF in patients with diabetes. Our findings call for future randomized controlled trials to focus on the effects of GLP-1RA on AF prevention.
SCOPUS:85181678387
ISSN: 0884-8734
CID: 5630152

Eicosanoids and related metabolites associated with end stage kidney disease in a community-based cohort

Surapaneni, Aditya L; Schlosser, Pascal; Rhee, Eugene P; Cheng, Susan; Jain, Mohit; Alotaiabi, Mona; Coresh, Josef; Grams, Morgan E
BACKGROUND:Eicosanoids are derivatives of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and participate in the inflammatory response as well as the maintenance of endothelial function. Specific eicosanoids have been linked to various diseases, including hypertension and asthma, and may also reduce renal blood flow. A systematic investigation of eicosanoid-related metabolites and adverse kidney outcomes could identify key mediators of kidney disease and inform ongoing work in drug development. METHODS:Profiling of eicosanoid-related metabolites was performed in 9,650 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (visit 2; mean age, 57 years). The associations between metabolite levels and the development of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) was investigated using a series of progressively adjusted models and Cox proportional hazards regression (N= 256 events; median follow-up, 25.5 years). Metabolites with statistically significant associations with ESKD were evaluated for a potential causal role using bidirectional Mendelian randomization techniques, linking genetic instruments for eicosanoid levels to genome-wide association study summary statistics of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS:The 223 eicosanoid-related metabolites that were profiled and passed QC were generally uncorrelated with eGFR in cross-sectional analyses (median Spearman correlation, -0.03; IQR -0.05 to 0.002). In models adjusted for multiple covariates, including baseline eGFR, three metabolites had statistically significant associations with ESKD (p-value <0.05/223). These included a hydroxyoctadecenoic acid, a dihydroxydocosapentaenoic acid, and arachidonic acid, with higher levels of the former two protective against ESKD and higher levels of arachidonic acid having a positive association with risk of ESKD. Mendelian randomization analyses suggested a causal role for the hydroxyoctadecenoic and arachidonic acid in determining eGFR. Spectral analysis identified the former metabolite as either 11-hydroxy-9-octadecenoic acid or 10-hydroxy-11-octadecenoic acid. CONCLUSIONS:High throughput eicosanoid profiling can identify metabolites that may play a protective role in the development of kidney disease.
PMID: 38047655
ISSN: 2641-7650
CID: 5583422

CKD-Associated Pruritus and Clinical Outcomes in Nondialysis CKD

Scherer, Jennifer S.; Tu, Charlotte; Pisoni, Ronald L.; Speyer, Elodie; Lopes, Antonio A.; Wen, Warren; Menzaghi, Frederique; Cirulli, Joshua; Alencar de Pinho, Natalia; Pecoits-Filho, Roberto; Karaboyas, Angelo; Lopes, Antonio; Combe, Christian; Jacquelinet, Christian; Massy, Ziad; Stengel, Benedicte; Duttlinger, Johannes; Fliser, Danilo; Lonnemann, Gerhard; Reichel, Helmut; Wada, Takashi; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Pisoni, Ron; Robinson, Bruce; Calice da Silva, Viviane; Sesso, Ricardo; Asahi, Koichi; Hoshino, Junichi; Narita, Ichiei; Perlman, Rachel; Port, Friedrich; Sukul, Nidhi; Wong, Michelle; Young, Eric; Zee, Jarcy
Rationale & Objective: Itching is a frequent symptom experienced by people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated the associations of CKD-associated pruritus (CKD-aP) with clinical outcomes. Study Design: This was a longitudinal cohort study. Setting & Participants: Patients from Brazil, France, and the United States enrolled in the Chronic Kidney Disease Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (CKDopps) from 2013 to 2021, an international prospective cohort study of adults with nondialysis dependent CKD, and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were included. Exposure: CKD-aP was self-reported by response to the question: "During the past 4 weeks, to what extent were you bothered by itchy skin?" Outcomes: The outcomes were as follows: CKD progression, kidney replacement therapy (KRT) initiation, mortality, hospitalization, cardiovascular events, infection events. Analytical Approach: Associations with time-to-event outcomes were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders. Results: There were 4,410 patients from 91 clinics with a median age of 69 years and a median eGFR at patient questionnaire completion of 29 (21-38) mL/min/1.73 m2. The proportion of patients not at all, somewhat, moderately, very much, and extremely bothered by itchy skin was 49%, 27%, 13%, 7%, and 3%, respectively. Patients with more advanced stages of CKD, older age, and greater comorbidities reported to be more likely bothered by itchy skin. Among patients at least moderately bothered, 23% were prescribed at least 1 pharmacotherapy (35% in the United States, 19% in France, 4% in Brazil), including antihistamine (10%), gabapentin (6%), topical corticosteroids (4%), pregabalin (3%), or sedating antihistamine (3%). The HR (95% CI) for patients extremely (vs not at all) bothered was 1.74 (1.11-2.73) for all-cause mortality, 1.56 (1.11-2.18) for all-cause hospitalization, and 1.84 (1.22-2.75) for cardiovascular events. As CKD-aP severity increased, patients also had higher rates of infection events (P = 0.04); CKD-aP severity was not associated with KRT initiation (P = 0.20) or CKD progression (P = 0.87). Limitations: The limitations were 25% nonresponse rate, recall bias, and residual confounding factors. Conclusions: These results demonstrate a strong association between severe itch and clinical outcomes, providing the nephrology community new insights into the possible adverse consequences of CKD-aP in individuals with nondialysis CKD, and warrant further exploration. Plain-Language Summary: Chronic kidney disease-associated pruritus (CKD-aP) is a common disturbing symptom of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This article analyzes longitudinal data from the Chronic Kidney Disease Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (CKDopps) to describe prevalence of CKD-aP in 4,410 individuals with nondialysis CKD, and its association with clinical outcomes. We found that 51% of the surveyed population were bothered by pruritus. CKD-aP was more prevalent in those with more advanced stages of CKD, older age, and with more comorbid conditions. Compared to those not at all bothered by pruritus, those who were extremely bothered had a higher risk of all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, and cardiovascular events. Severity of CKD-aP was not associated with CKD progression or initiation of kidney replacement therapy.
SCOPUS:85180563655
ISSN: 2590-0595
CID: 5630452

Baclofen and the risk of fall and fracture in older adults: A real-world cohort study

Hwang, Y Joseph; Chang, Alex R; Brotman, Daniel J; Inker, Lesley A; Grams, Morgan E; Shin, Jung-Im
BACKGROUND:The growth of oral muscle relaxant prescriptions among older adults in the United States is concerning due to the drugs' adverse sedative effects. Baclofen is a gamma-aminobutyric acid agonist muscle relaxant that is associated with encephalopathy. We characterized the risk of fall and fracture associated with oral baclofen against other muscle relaxants (tizanidine or cyclobenzaprine) in older adults. METHODS:We designed a new-user, active-comparator study using tertiary health system data from Geisinger Health, Pennsylvania (January 2005 through December 2018). Older adults (aged ≥65 years) newly treated with baclofen, tizanidine, or cyclobenzaprine were included. Propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance the treatment groups on 58 baseline characteristics. Fine-Gray competing risk regression was used to estimate the risk of fall and fracture. RESULTS:The study cohort comprised of 2205 new baclofen users, 1103 new tizanidine users, and 9708 new cyclobenzaprine users. During a median follow-up of 100 days, baclofen was associated with a higher risk of fall compared to tizanidine (IPTW incidence rate, 108.4 vs. 61.9 per 1000 person-years; subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 1.68 [95% CI, 1.20-2.36]). The risk of fall associated with baclofen was comparable to cyclobenzaprine (SHR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.93-1.47]) with a median follow-up of 106 days. The risk of fracture was similar among patients treated with baclofen versus tizanidine (SHR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.63-1.14]) or cyclobenzaprine (SHR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.67-1.07]). CONCLUSIONS:The risk of fall associated with baclofen was greater than tizanidine, but not compared to cyclobenzaprine in older adults. The risk of fracture was comparable among the older users of baclofen, tizanidine, and cyclobenzaprine. Our findings may inform risk-benefit considerations in the increasingly common clinical encounters where oral muscle relaxants are prescribed.
PMID: 37933734
ISSN: 1532-5415
CID: 5624322

Associations of Baseline and Longitudinal Serum Uromodulin With Kidney Failure and Mortality: Results From the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) Trial

Chen, Teresa K; Estrella, Michelle M; Appel, Lawrence J; Surapaneni, Aditya L; Köttgen, Anna; Obeid, Wassim; Parikh, Chirag R; Grams, Morgan E
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE:Uromodulin (UMOD) is the most abundant protein found in urine and has emerged as a promising biomarker of tubule health. Circulating UMOD is also detectable, but at lower levels. We evaluated whether serum UMOD levels were associated with the risks of incident kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and mortality. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Participants in AASK (the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension) with available stored serum samples from the 0-, 12-, and 24-month visits for biomarker measurement. PREDICTORS/METHODS:Baseline log-transformed UMOD and change in UMOD over 2 years. OUTCOMES/RESULTS:KFRT and mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH/METHODS:Cox proportional hazards and mixed-effects models. RESULTS:Among 500 participants with baseline serum UMOD levels (mean age, 54y; 37% female), 161 KFRT events occurred during a median of 8.5 years. After adjusting for baseline demographic factors, clinical factors, glomerular filtration rate, log-transformed urine protein-creatinine ratio, and randomized treatment groups, a 50% lower baseline UMOD level was independently associated with a 35% higher risk of KFRT (adjusted HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07-1.70). For annual UMOD change, each 1-standard deviation lower change was associated with a 67% higher risk of KFRT (adjusted HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.41-1.99). Baseline UMOD and UMOD change were not associated with mortality. UMOD levels declined more steeply for metoprolol versus ramipril (P<0.001) as well as for intensive versus standard blood pressure goals (P = 0.002). LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Small sample size and limited generalizability. CONCLUSIONS:Lower UMOD levels at baseline and steeper declines in UMOD over time were associated with a higher risk of subsequent KFRT in a cohort of African American adults with chronic kidney disease and hypertension. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY/UNASSIGNED:Prior studies of uromodulin (UMOD), the most abundant protein in urine, and kidney disease have focused primarily on urinary UMOD levels. The present study evaluated associations of serum UMOD levels with the risks of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and mortality in a cohort of African American adults with hypertension and chronic kidney disease. It found that participants with lower levels of UMOD at baseline were more likely to experience KFRT even after accounting for baseline kidney measures. Similarly, participants who experienced steeper annual declines in UMOD also had a heightened risk of kidney failure. Neither baseline nor annual change in UMOD was associated with mortality. Serum UMOD is a promising biomarker of kidney health.
PMID: 37690632
ISSN: 1523-6838
CID: 5594272