Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Clinical management of boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) relies on in-depth understanding of cardiac involvement, but right ventricular (RV) structural and functional remodeling remains understudied. PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE:To evaluate several analysis methods and identify the most reliable one to measure RV pre- and postcontrast T1 (RV-T1) and to characterize myocardial remodeling in the RV of boys with DMD. STUDY TYPE/METHODS:Prospective. POPULATION/METHODS:Boys with DMD (N = 27) and age-/sex-matched healthy controls (N = 17) from two sites. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE/UNASSIGNED:3.0 T using balanced steady state free precession, motion-corrected phase sensitive inversion recovery and modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequences. ASSESSMENT/RESULTS:Biventricular mass (Mi), end-diastolic volume (EDVi) and ejection fraction (EF) assessment, tricuspid annular excursion (TAE), late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), pre- and postcontrast myocardial T1 maps. The RV-T1 reliability was assessed by three observers in four different RV regions of interest (ROI) using intraclass correlation (ICC). STATISTICAL TESTS/UNASSIGNED:The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare RV-T1 differences between DMD boys with negative LGE(-) or positive LGE(+) and healthy controls. Additionally, correlation of precontrast RV-T1 with functional measures was performed. A P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS:), and TAE (22.0 [3.2] cm vs. 26.0 [4.7] cm). Significant correlations were found between precontrast RV-T1 and RVEF (β = -0.48%/msec) and between LV-T1 and LVEF (β = -0.51%/msec). DATA CONCLUSION/UNASSIGNED:Precontrast RV-T1 is elevated in boys with DMD compared to healthy controls and is negatively correlated with RVEF. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE/METHODS:1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Background In a recent multicenter study of perinatal outcome in fetuses with Ebstein anomaly or tricuspid valve dysplasia, we found that one third of live-born patients died before hospital discharge. We sought to further describe postnatal management strategies and to define risk factors for neonatal mortality and circulatory outcome at discharge. Methods and Results This 23-center, retrospective study from 2005 to 2011 included 243 fetuses with Ebstein anomaly or tricuspid valve dysplasia. Among live-born patients, clinical and echocardiographic factors were evaluated for association with neonatal mortality and palliated versus biventricular circulation at discharge. Of 176 live-born patients, 7 received comfort care, 11 died <24 hours after birth, and 4 had insufficient data. Among 154 remaining patients, 38 (25%) did not survive to discharge. Nearly half (46%) underwent intervention. Mortality differed by procedure; no deaths occurred in patients who underwent right ventricular exclusion. At discharge, 56% of the cohort had a biventricular circulation (13% following intervention) and 19% were palliated. Lower tricuspid regurgitation jet velocity (odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [1.1-5.0], 95% CI, per m/s; P=0.025) and lack of antegrade flow across the pulmonary valve (OR, 4.5 [1.3-14.2]; P=0.015) were associated with neonatal mortality by multivariable logistic regression. These variables, along with smaller pulmonary valve dimension, were also associated with a palliated outcome. Conclusions Among neonates with Ebstein anomaly or tricuspid valve dysplasia diagnosed in utero, a variety of management strategies were used across centers, with poor outcomes overall. High-risk patients with low tricuspid regurgitation jet velocity and no antegrade pulmonary blood flow should be considered for right ventricular exclusion to optimize their chance of survival.

BACKGROUND:Little is known about the early time course of biventricular function and mechanics after tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) repair. We sought to evaluate and describe the evolution of the right ventricle (RV) after TOF repair in young infants and children using conventional echocardiographic parameters and global longitudinal strain (GLS). METHODS:A retrospective review was performed of all patients with TOF and pulmonary stenosis who underwent repair from January 2002 to September 2015 and had at least 3 serial postsurgical echocardiograms spanning from infancy to early childhood (<8 years). Student's t test was performed to compare patients who underwent valve sparing (VS) versus transannular patch (TAP) repair. ANOVA was used to track measures of ventricular systolic function over time. RESULTS:We analyzed 151 echocardiograms performed on 42 patients. Pulmonary regurgitation (PR, moderate or severe) and the RV to left ventricular (LV) basal dimension ratio were higher in TAP patients (P < .04 at all-time points). Along with a significant increase in RV basal diameter Z-score in the TAP group (P < .001), there was an improvement in RV and LV GLS over time in both groups (P < .001). The LV GLS at last follow-up was lower in patients who underwent reoperation than those who did not (P = .050). LV GLS at the last follow-up echocardiogram was lower in patients with significant PR than those without (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS:Ventricular function appeared improve over time from the initial postoperative period in TOF patients. TAP repair was associated with a progressively higher RV/LV ratio in young children. GLS and RV/LV basal diameter ratio may be useful when following young children after TOF repair. Further research is necessary to understand the trajectory of ventricular functional and volumetric changes in young children in order to provide the most effective lifetime management of patients with TOF.

BACKGROUND:The rapid deterioration observed in the condition of some hospitalized patients can be attributed to either disease progression or imperfect triage and level of care assignment after their admission. An early warning system (EWS) to identify patients at high risk of subsequent intrahospital death can be an effective tool for ensuring patient safety and quality of care and reducing avoidable harm and costs. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to prospectively validate a real-time EWS designed to predict patients at high risk of inpatient mortality during their hospital episodes. METHODS:Data were collected from the system-wide electronic medical record (EMR) of two acute Berkshire Health System hospitals, comprising 54,246 inpatient admissions from January 1, 2015, to September 30, 2017, of which 2.30% (1248/54,246) resulted in intrahospital deaths. Multiple machine learning methods (linear and nonlinear) were explored and compared. The tree-based random forest method was selected to develop the predictive application for the intrahospital mortality assessment. After constructing the model, we prospectively validated the algorithms as a real-time inpatient EWS for mortality. RESULTS:The EWS algorithm scored patients' daily and long-term risk of inpatient mortality probability after admission and stratified them into distinct risk groups. In the prospective validation, the EWS prospectively attained a c-statistic of 0.884, where 99 encounters were captured in the highest risk group, 69% (68/99) of whom died during the episodes. It accurately predicted the possibility of death for the top 13.3% (34/255) of the patients at least 40.8 hours before death. Important clinical utilization features, together with coded diagnoses, vital signs, and laboratory test results were recognized as impactful predictors in the final EWS. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we prospectively demonstrated the capability of the newly-designed EWS to monitor and alert clinicians about patients at high risk of in-hospital death in real time, thereby providing opportunities for timely interventions. This real-time EWS is able to assist clinical decision making and enable more actionable and effective individualized care for patients' better health outcomes in target medical facilities.

BACKGROUND:Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Early detection of individuals at risk of lung cancer is critical to reduce the mortality rate. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prospective risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident lung cancer within the next 1 year in the general population. METHODS:Data from individual patient electronic health records (EHRs) were extracted from the Maine Health Information Exchange network. The study population consisted of patients with at least one EHR between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2018, who had no history of lung cancer. A retrospective cohort (N=873,598) and a prospective cohort (N=836,659) were formed for model construction and validation. An Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was adopted to build the model. It assigned a score to each individual to quantify the probability of a new incident lung cancer diagnosis from October 1, 2016, to September 31, 2017. The model was trained with the clinical profile in the retrospective cohort from the preceding 6 months and validated with the prospective cohort to predict the risk of incident lung cancer from April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2018. RESULTS:The model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.881 (95% CI 0.873-0.889) in the prospective cohort. Two thresholds of 0.0045 and 0.01 were applied to the predictive scores to stratify the population into low-, medium-, and high-risk categories. The incidence of lung cancer in the high-risk category (579/53,922, 1.07%) was 7.7 times higher than that in the overall cohort (1167/836,659, 0.14%). Age, a history of pulmonary diseases and other chronic diseases, medications for mental disorders, and social disparities were found to be associated with new incident lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS:We retrospectively developed and prospectively validated an accurate risk prediction model of new incident lung cancer occurring in the next 1 year. Through statistical learning from the statewide EHR data in the preceding 6 months, our model was able to identify statewide high-risk patients, which will benefit the population health through establishment of preventive interventions or more intensive surveillance.

BACKGROUND:Transcatheter aortic and pulmonary valves have been used to treat stenosis or regurgitation after prior surgical tricuspid valve (TV) replacement or repair. Little is known about intermediate-term valve-related outcomes after transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement (TTVR), including valve function, thrombus, and endocarditis. OBJECTIVES:The authors sought to evaluate mid-term outcomes in a large cohort of patients who underwent TTVR after surgical TV repair or replacement, with a focus on valve-related outcomes. METHODS:Patients who underwent TTVR after prior surgical TV replacement or repair were collected through an international registry. Time-related outcomes were modeled and risk factors assessed. RESULTS:Data were collected for 306 patients who underwent TTVR from 2008 through 2017 at 80 centers; 52 patients (17%) had a prior history of endocarditis. Patients were followed for a median of 15.9 months after implantation (0.1 to 90 months), with 64% of patients estimated to be alive without TV reintervention or a valve-related event at 3 years. The cumulative 3-year incidence of death, reintervention, and valve-related adverse outcomes (endocarditis, thrombosis, or significant dysfunction) were 17%, 12%, and 8%, respectively. Endocarditis was diagnosed in 8 patients 2 to 29 months after TTVR, for an annualized incidence rate of 1.5% per patient-year (95% confidence interval: 0.45% to 2.5%). An additional 8 patients were diagnosed with clinically relevant valve thrombosis, 3 in the short term, 2 within 2 months, and 3 beyond 6 months. Only 2 of these 8 patients received anticoagulant therapy before thrombus detection (p = 0.13 vs. patients without thrombus). Prior endocarditis was not a risk factor for reintervention, endocarditis, or valve thrombosis, and there was no difference in valve-related outcomes according to TTVR valve type. CONCLUSIONS:TV dysfunction, endocarditis, and leaflet thrombosis were uncommon after TTVR. Patients with prior endocarditis were not at higher risk for endocarditis or other adverse outcomes after TTVR, and endocarditis occurred with similar frequency in different valve types. Though rare, leaflet thrombosis is an important adverse outcome, and further study is necessary to determine the appropriate level of prophylactic therapy after TTVR.

BACKGROUND:For many elderly patients, a disproportionate amount of health care resources and expenditures is spent during the last year of life, despite the discomfort and reduced quality of life associated with many aggressive medical approaches. However, few prognostic tools have focused on predicting all-cause 1-year mortality among elderly patients at a statewide level, an issue that has implications for improving quality of life while distributing scarce resources fairly. OBJECTIVE:Using data from a statewide elderly population (aged ≥65 years), we sought to prospectively validate an algorithm to identify patients at risk for dying in the next year for the purpose of minimizing decision uncertainty, improving quality of life, and reducing futile treatment. METHODS:Analysis was performed using electronic medical records from the Health Information Exchange in the state of Maine, which covered records of nearly 95% of the statewide population. The model was developed from 125,896 patients aged at least 65 years who were discharged from any care facility in the Health Information Exchange network from September 5, 2013, to September 4, 2015. Validation was conducted using 153,199 patients with same inclusion and exclusion criteria from September 5, 2014, to September 4, 2016. Patients were stratified into risk groups. The association between all-cause 1-year mortality and risk factors was screened by chi-squared test and manually reviewed by 2 clinicians. We calculated risk scores for individual patients using a gradient tree-based boost algorithm, which measured the probability of mortality within the next year based on the preceding 1-year clinical profile. RESULTS:The development sample included 125,896 patients (72,572 women, 57.64%; mean 74.2 [SD 7.7] years). The final validation cohort included 153,199 patients (88,177 women, 57.56%; mean 74.3 [SD 7.8] years). The c-statistic for discrimination was 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-0.98) in the development group and 0.91 (95% CI 0.90-0.94) in the validation cohort. The mortality was 0.99% in the low-risk group, 16.75% in the intermediate-risk group, and 72.12% in the high-risk group. A total of 99 independent risk factors (n=99) for mortality were identified (reported as odds ratios; 95% CI). Age was on the top of list (1.41; 1.06-1.48); congestive heart failure (20.90; 15.41-28.08) and different tumor sites were also recognized as driving risk factors, such as cancer of the ovaries (14.42; 2.24-53.04), colon (14.07; 10.08-19.08), and stomach (13.64; 3.26-86.57). Disparities were also found in patients' social determinants like respiratory hazard index (1.24; 0.92-1.40) and unemployment rate (1.18; 0.98-1.24). Among high-risk patients who expired in our dataset, cerebrovascular accident, amputation, and type 1 diabetes were the top 3 diseases in terms of average cost in the last year of life. CONCLUSIONS:Our study prospectively validated an accurate 1-year risk prediction model and stratification for the elderly population (≥65 years) at risk of mortality with statewide electronic medical record datasets. It should be a valuable adjunct for helping patients to make better quality-of-life choices and alerting care givers to target high-risk elderly for appropriate care and discussions, thus cutting back on futile treatment.

BACKGROUND:As a high-prevalence health condition, hypertension is clinically costly, difficult to manage, and often leads to severe and life-threatening diseases such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to develop and validate prospectively a risk prediction model of incident essential hypertension within the following year. METHODS:Data from individual patient electronic health records (EHRs) were extracted from the Maine Health Information Exchange network. Retrospective (N=823,627, calendar year 2013) and prospective (N=680,810, calendar year 2014) cohorts were formed. A machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, was adopted in the process of feature selection and model building. It generated an ensemble of classification trees and assigned a final predictive risk score to each individual. RESULTS:The 1-year incident hypertension risk model attained areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.917 and 0.870 in the retrospective and prospective cohorts, respectively. Risk scores were calculated and stratified into five risk categories, with 4526 out of 381,544 patients (1.19%) in the lowest risk category (score 0-0.05) and 21,050 out of 41,329 patients (50.93%) in the highest risk category (score 0.4-1) receiving a diagnosis of incident hypertension in the following 1 year. Type 2 diabetes, lipid disorders, CVDs, mental illness, clinical utilization indicators, and socioeconomic determinants were recognized as driving or associated features of incident essential hypertension. The very high risk population mainly comprised elderly (age>50 years) individuals with multiple chronic conditions, especially those receiving medications for mental disorders. Disparities were also found in social determinants, including some community-level factors associated with higher risk and others that were protective against hypertension. CONCLUSIONS:With statewide EHR datasets, our study prospectively validated an accurate 1-year risk prediction model for incident essential hypertension. Our real-time predictive analytic model has been deployed in the state of Maine, providing implications in interventions for hypertension and related diseases and hopefully enhancing hypertension care.

We sought to describe the acute results and short- to medium-term durability of transcatheter tricuspid valve-in-valve (TVIV) implantation within surgical bioprostheses among patients with Ebstein anomaly (EA). Cases were identified from a voluntary, multicenter, international registry of 29 institutions that perform TVIV. Demographic, clinical, procedural, and follow-up data were analyzed. Eighty-one patients with EA underwent TVIV from 2008 to 2016. Thirty-four patients (42%) were New York Heart Association (NYHA) class 3/4 at time of TVIV. The most common indication for TVIV was the presence of moderate or severe tricuspid regurgitation (40%). Most patients received a Melody valve (64%). TVIV was ultimately successful in all patients, and there was no procedural mortality. Four patients (5%) developed acute valve thrombosis, 4 patients (5%) developed endocarditis, and 9 patients (11%) developed valve dysfunction not related to thrombosis or endocarditis. Eight patients (10%) underwent reintervention (2 transcatheter, 6 surgical) due to thrombosis (3), endocarditis (2), other valve dysfunction (2), and patient-prosthesis mismatch without valve dysfunction (1). Among 69 patients who were alive without reintervention at latest follow-up, 96% of those with NYHA status reported were class 1/2, a significant improvement from baseline (62% NYHA class 1/2, p <0.001). In conclusion, transcatheter TVIV offers a low-risk, minimally invasive alternative to surgical tricuspid valve re-replacement in patients with EA and a failing tricuspid valve bioprosthesis.