Faculty Bibliography

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s43058-020-00027-3.].

Background/UNASSIGNED:Implementation science (IS) has the potential to serve an important role in encouraging the successful uptake of evidence-based interventions. The current state of IS awareness and engagement among health researchers, however, is relatively unknown. Methods/UNASSIGNED:To determine IS awareness and engagement among health researchers, we performed an online survey of health researchers in the USA in 2018. Basic science researchers were excluded from the sample. Engagement in and awareness of IS were measured with multiple questionnaire items that both directly and indirectly ask about IS methods used. Unrecognized IS engagement was defined as participating in research using IS elements and not indicating IS as a research method used. We performed simple logistic regressions and tested multivariable logistic regression models of researcher characteristics as predictors of IS engagement. Results/UNASSIGNED:< 0.001). Conclusion/UNASSIGNED:Overall, awareness of IS is high among health researchers, yet there is also a high prevalence of unrecognized IS engagement. Efforts are needed to further disseminate what constitutes IS research and increase IS awareness among health researchers.

BACKGROUND:Less than 25% of stroke patients arrive to an emergency department within the 3-hour treatment window. OBJECTIVE:We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a stroke preparedness behavioral intervention study (Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment [SWIFT]), a stroke intervention demonstrating capacity to decrease race-ethnic disparities in ED arrival times. METHODS:Using the literature and SWIFT outcomes for 2 interventions, enhanced educational (EE) materials, and interactive intervention (II), we assess the cost-effectiveness of SWIFT in 2 ways: (1) Markov model, and (2) cost-to-outcome ratio. The Markov model primary outcome was the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained using the cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000/QALY. The primary cost-to-outcome endpoint was cost per additional patient with ED arrival <3 hours, stroke knowledge, and preparedness capacity. We assessed the ICER of II and EE versus standard care (SC) from a health sector and societal perspective using 2015 USD, a time horizon of 5 years, and a discount rate of 3%. RESULTS:The cost-effectiveness of the II and EE programs was, respectively, $227.35 and $74.63 per additional arrival <3 hours, $440.72 and $334.09 per additional person with stroke knowledge proficiency, and $655.70 and $811.77 per additional person with preparedness capacity. Using a societal perspective, the ICER for EE versus SC was $84 643 per QALY gained and the ICER for II versus EE was $59 058 per QALY gained. Incorporating fixed costs, EE and II would need to administered to 507 and 1693 or more patients, respectively, to achieve an ICER of $100 000/QALY. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:II was a cost-effective strategy compared with both EE and SC. Nevertheless, high initial fixed costs associated with II may limit its cost-effectiveness in settings with smaller patient populations.

In integrated health care systems, techniques that identify successes and opportunities for targeted improvement are needed. The authors propose a new method for estimating population health that provides a more accurate and dynamic assessment of performance and priority setting. Member data from a large integrated health system (n = 96,246, 73.8% female, mean age = 44 ± 0.01 years) were used to develop a mechanistic mathematical simulation, representing the top causes of US mortality in 2014 and their associated risk factors. An age- and sex-matched US cohort served as comparator group. The simulation was recalibrated and retested for validity employing the outcome measure of 5-year mortality. The authors sought to estimate potential population health that could be gained by improving health risk factors in the study population. Potential gains were assessed using both average life years (LY) gained and average quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The simulation validated well compared to integrated health system data, producing an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.88 for 5-year mortality. Current population health was estimated as a life expectancy of 84.7 years or 69.2 QALYs. Comparing potential health gain in the US cohort to the Kaiser Permanente cohort, eliminating physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, smoking, and uncontrolled diabetes resulted in an increase of 1.5 vs. 1.3 LY, 1.1 vs. 0.8 LY, 0.5 vs. 0.2 LY, and 0.5 vs. 0.5 LY on average per person, respectively. Using mathematical simulations may inform efforts by integrated health systems to target resources most effectively, and may facilitate goal setting.

Background. Reference life expectancies inform frequently used health metrics, which play an integral role in determining resource allocation and health policy decision making. Existing reference life expectancies are not able to account for variation in geographies, populations, and disease states. Using a computer simulation, we developed a reference life expectancy estimation that considers competing causes of mortality, and is tailored to population characteristics. Methods. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model that explicitly represented the top causes of US mortality in 2014 and the risk factors associated with their onset. The microsimulation follows a birth cohort of hypothetical individuals resembling the population of the United States. To estimate a reference life expectancy, we compared current circumstances with an idealized scenario in which all modifiable risk factors were eliminated and adherence to evidence-based therapies was perfect. We compared estimations of years of potential years life lost with alternative approaches. Results. In the idealized scenario, we estimated that overall life expectancy in the United States would increase by 5.9 years to 84.7 years. Life expectancy for men would increase from 76.4 years to 82.5 years, and life expectancy for women would increase from 81.3 years to 86.8 years. Using age-75 truncation to estimate potential years life lost compared to using the idealized life expectancy underestimated potential health gains overall (38%), disproportionately underestimated potential health gains for women (by 70%) compared to men (by 40%), and disproportionately underestimated the importance of heart disease for white women and black men. Conclusion. Mathematical simulations can be used to estimate an idealized reference life expectancy among a population to better inform and assess progress toward targets to improve population health.

BACKGROUND:A study of a comprehensive HIV Care Coordination Program (CCP) showed effectiveness in increasing viral load suppression (VLS) among PLWH in New York City (NYC). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a scale-up of the CCP in NYC. METHODS:We incorporated observed effects and costs of the CCP into a computer simulation of HIV in NYC, comparing strategy scale-up with no implementation. The simulation combined a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission with a stochastic microsimulation of HIV progression, and was calibrated to NYC HIV epidemiological data from 1997 to 2009. We assessed incremental cost-effectiveness from a health sector perspective using 2017 $US, a 20-year time horizon, and a 3% annual discount rate. We explored two scenarios: (1) two-year average enrollment and (2) continuous enrollment. RESULTS:In scenario 1, scale-up resulted in a cost-per-infection-averted of $898,104 and a cost-per-QALY-gained of $423,721. In sensitivity analyses, scale-up achieved cost-effectiveness if effectiveness increased from RR1.11 to RR1.37 or costs decreased by 41.7%. Limiting the intervention to persons with unsuppressed viral load prior to enrollment (RR1.32) attenuated the cost reduction necessary to 11.5%. In scenario 2, scale-up resulted in a cost-per-infection-averted of $705,171 and cost-per-QALY-gained of $720,970. In sensitivity analyses, scale-up achieved cost-effectiveness if effectiveness increased from RR1.11 to RR1.46 or program costs decreased by 71.3%. Limiting the intervention to persons with unsuppressed viral load attenuated the cost reduction necessary to 38.7%. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Cost-effective CCP scale-up would require reduced costs and/or focused enrollment within NYC, but may be more readily achieved in cities with lower background VLS levels.

BACKGROUND:Hepatocelluar cancer (HCC) is the leading cause of death among people with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis. Our aim was to determine the optimal surveillance frequency for patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis. METHODS:We developed a decision analytic Markov model and validated it against data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) study group and published epidemiologic studies. Four strategies of different surveillance intervals were compared: no surveillance and ultrasound surveillance every 12, 6, and 3 months. We estimated lifetime survival, life expectancy, quality adjusted life years (QALY), total costs associated with each strategy, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. We applied a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000. Analysis was conducted for two scenarios: a scenario reflecting current HCV and HCC surveillance compliance rates and treatment use and an aspirational scenario. RESULTS:In the current scenario the preferred strategy was 3-month surveillance with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $7,159/QALY. In the aspirational scenario, 6-month surveillance was preferred with an ICER of $82,807/QALY because treating more people with HCV led to a lower incidence of HCC. Sensitivity analyses suggested that surveillance every 12 months would suffice in the particular circumstance when patients are very likely to return regularly for testing and when appropriate HCV and HCC treatment is readily available. Compared with the current scenario, the aspirational scenario resulted in a 1.87 year gain in life expectancy for the cohort because of large reductions in decompensated cirrhosis and HCC incidence. CONCLUSIONS:HCC surveillance has good value for money for patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis. Investments to improve adherence to surveillance should be made when rates are suboptimal. Surveillance every 12 months will suffice when patients are very likely to return regularly for testing and when appropriate HCV and HCC treatment is readily available.

BACKGROUND:The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) recently published a rigorous framework to guide integration of economic data into clinical guidelines. We assessed the quality of economic evaluations in a major ACC/AHA clinical guidance report. METHODS:We systematically identified cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of RCTs cited in the ACC/AHA 2012 Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients with Stable Ischemic Heart Disease. We extracted: (1) study identifiers; (2) parent RCT information; (3) economic analysis characteristics; and (4) study quality using the Quality of Health Economic Studies instrument (QHES). RESULTS:Quality scores were categorized as high (≥75 points) or low (<75 points). Of 1,266 citations in the guideline, 219 were RCTs associated with 77 CEAs. Mean quality score was 81 (out of 100) and improved over time, though 29.9% of studies were low-quality. Cost-per-QALY was the most commonly reported primary outcome (39.0%). Low-quality studies were less likely to report study perspective, use appropriate time horizons, or address statistical and clinical uncertainty. Funding was overwhelmingly private (83%). A detailed methodological assessment of high-quality studies revealed domains of additional methodological issues not identified by the QHES. CONCLUSIONS:Economic evaluations of RCTs in the 2012 ACC/AHA ischemic heart disease guideline largely had high QHES scores but methodological issues existed among "high-quality" studies. Because the ACC/AHA has generally been more systematic in its integration of scientific evidence compared to other professional societies, it is likely that most societies will need to proceed more cautiously in their integration of economic evidence.

BACKGROUND:Unhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. Given the competition for health care resources in East Africa, this study aims to determine the optimal sample size given the opportunity cost of potentially re-allocating trial funds towards cost-effective alcohol treatments. METHODS:We used value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size by maximizing the expected net benefit of sampling for a hypothetical 2-arm intervention vs. control randomized trial, across ranges of policymaker's willingness-to-pay for the health benefit of an intervention. Probability distributions describing the relative likelihood of alternative trial results were imputed based on prior studies. In the base case, policymaker's willingness-to-pay was based on a simultaneously resource-constrained priority (routine HIV virological testing). Sensitivity analysis was performed for various willingness-to-pay thresholds and intervention durations. RESULTS:A new effectiveness trial accounting for the benefit of more precise decision-making on alcohol intervention implementation would benefit East Africa $67,000 with the optimal sample size of 100 persons per arm under the base case willingness-to-pay threshold and intervention duration of 20 years. At both a conservative willingness-to-pay of 1 x GDP/capita and a high willingness-to-pay of 3 x GDP/capita for an additional health gain added by an alcohol intervention, a new trial was not recommended due to limited decision uncertainty. When intervention duration was 10 or 5 years, there was no return on investment across suggested willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS:Value of information methods could be used as an alternative approach to assist the efficient design of alcohol trials. If reducing unhealthy alcohol use is a long-term goal for HIV programs in East Africa, additional new trials with optimal sample sizes ranging from 100 to 250 persons per arm could save the opportunity cost of implementing less cost-effective alcohol strategies in HIV prevention. Otherwise, conducting a new trial is not recommended.

INTRODUCTION: We used a computer simulation of HIV progression and transmission to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a scale-up of three strategies to seek out and test individuals with undiagnosed HIV in New York City (NYC). SETTING: Hypothetical NYC population METHODS:: We incorporated the observed effects and costs of the three "seek and test" strategies in a computer simulation of HIV in NYC, comparing a scenario in which the strategies were scaled up with a one-year implementation or a long-term implementation with a counterfactual scenario with no scale-up. The simulation combined a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission with a stochastic microsimulation of HIV progression, calibrated to NYC epidemiological data from 2003 to 2015. The three approaches were respondent driven sampling (RDS) with anonymous HIV testing ("RDS-A"), RDS with a two-session confidential HIV testing approach ("RDS-C"), and venue-based sampling ("VBS"). RESULTS: RDS-A was the most cost-effective strategy tested. When implemented for only one year and then stopped thereafter, using a societal perspective, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus no intervention was $812/QALY, $18,110/QALY, and $20,362/QALY for RDS-A, RDS-C, and VBS, respectively. When interventions were implemented long-term, the cost per QALY gained versus no intervention was cost-saving, $31,773/QALY, and $35,148/QALY for RDS-A, RDS-C, and VBS, respectively. When compared to RDS-A the incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for both VBS and RDS-C were dominated. CONCLUSION: The expansion of the RDS-A strategy would substantially reduce HIV-related deaths and new HIV infections in NYC, and would be either cost-saving or have favorable cost-effectiveness.