Faculty Bibliography

AIMS:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS:The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION:Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

OBJECTIVE:The plasma proteome preceding diabetes can improve our understanding of diabetes pathogenesis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:In 8,923 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants (aged 47-70 years, 57% women, 19% Black), we conducted discovery and internal validation for associations of 4,955 plasma proteins with incident diabetes. We externally validated results in the Singapore Multi-Ethnic Cohort (MEC) nested case-control (624 case subjects, 1,214 control subjects). We used Cox regression to discover and validate protein associations and risk-prediction models (elastic net regression with cardiometabolic risk factors and proteins) for incident diabetes. We conducted a pathway analysis and examined causality using genetic instruments. RESULTS:There were 2,147 new diabetes cases over a median of 19 years. In the discovery sample (n = 6,010), 140 proteins were associated with incident diabetes after adjustment for 11 risk factors (P < 10-5). Internal validation (n = 2,913) showed 64 of the 140 proteins remained significant (P < 0.05/140). Of the 63 available proteins, 47 (75%) were validated in MEC. Novel associations with diabetes were found for 22 the 47 proteins. Prediction models (27 proteins selected by elastic net) developed in discovery had a C statistic of 0.731 in internal validation, with ΔC statistic of 0.011 (P = 0.04) beyond 13 risk factors, including fasting glucose and HbA1c. Inflammation and lipid metabolism pathways were overrepresented among the diabetes-associated proteins. Genetic instrument analyses suggested plasma SHBG, ATP1B2, and GSTA1 play causal roles in diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS:We identified 47 plasma proteins predictive of incident diabetes, established causal effects for 3 proteins, and identified diabetes-associated inflammation and lipid pathways with potential implications for diagnosis and therapy.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT:Low muscle mass is related to frailty and increased mortality in older adults. However, muscle mass is not easily assessed in routine clinical practice. This paper describes a novel creatinine muscle index (CMI) on the basis of serum creatinine and cystatin C. CMI was moderately associated with frailty among older adults. A significantly higher proportion of individuals with weak grip strength were in the lowest tertile of CMI. The index was also associated with mortality. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that creatinine filtration may be an index of muscle mass, which may have utility in clinical practice. BACKGROUND:Low muscle mass is related to frailty and increased mortality in older adults. However, muscle mass is not easily assessed in routine clinical practice. METHODS:This study describes a novel creatinine muscle index (CMI) on the basis of serum creatinine and cystatin C in a community-based sample of older adults from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Analyses included 4639 participants who attended visit 5 (2011-2013) and 12,786 participants who attended visit 2 (1990-1992). CMI was defined as creatinine filtration (the product of serum creatinine times eGFR on the basis of cystatin C) and was analyzed in sex-specific tertiles. Cross-sectional associations of CMI with a frailty trichotomy, defined by the number (robust [0]/prefrail [1-2]/frail [3-5]) of five frailty components (weight loss, slowness, exhaustion, weakness, and low physical activity), were studied using polychotomous logistic regression and binary logistic regression with each frailty component. Cox regression was used to estimate associations of CMI at visit 5 and visit 2 with mortality. Models were adjusted for demographics, clinical variables, and comorbid conditions. RESULTS:CMI (tertile 1 versus 3) was moderately associated with frailty (visit 5: adjusted odds ratio 4.23 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.02 to 8.87] in men and 2.34 [95% CI, 1.41 to 3.89] in women) and with mortality (visit 5: adjusted hazard ratio 1.45 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.94] in men and 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13 to 2.12] in women; similar results were seen at visit 2). CONCLUSION:Lower CMI was associated with frailty and increased mortality, two clinical outcomes known to be associated with decreased muscle mass. Creatinine filtration may be an index of muscle mass and have utility in clinical practice, particularly at low levels.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT:The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND:The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS:Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS:The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS:The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

AIMS/OBJECTIVE:The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an 'Add-on' to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach. METHODS:In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets. RESULTS:In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.

BACKGROUND:The association of renin with adverse kidney outcomes is largely unknown, and renin measurement strategies vary. We aimed to measure the clinical correlates of different renin measurements and the association between renin and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), and mortality. METHODS:We performed a prospective cohort analysis 9420 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study followed from 1996-1998 through 2019. We estimated longitudinal associations of renin measured using SomaScan modified nucleotide aptamer assay with incident CKD, ESKD, and death using Cox proportional hazards models. Using samples from a subsequent study visit, we compared SomaScan renin with plasma renin activity (PRA) and renin level from Olink, and estimated associations with covariates using univariate and multivariable regression. RESULTS:Higher SomaScan renin levels were associated with higher risk of incident CKD (hazard ratio per two-fold higher [HR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.20), ESKD (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.41), and mortality (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.13) in analyses adjusted for demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic covariates. SomaScan renin was moderately correlated with PRA (r=0.61) and highly correlated with Olink renin (r=0.94). SomaScan renin and PRA had similar clinical correlates except for divergent associations with age and beta blocker use, both of which correlated positively with SomaScan renin but negatively with PRA. CONCLUSIONS:SomaScan aptamer-based renin level was associated with higher risk of CKD, ESKD, and mortality. It was moderately correlated with PRA, sharing generally similar clinical covariate associations.

BACKGROUND:Testican-2 was recently identified as a podocyte-derived protein that is released into circulation by the kidneys and is positively correlated with eGFR and eGFR slope. However, whether higher testican-2 levels are associated with lower risk of ESKD is unknown. METHODS:Aptamer-based proteomics assessed blood testican-2 levels among participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK, n =703), the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study ( n =3196), and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study ( n =4378). We compared baseline characteristics by testican-2 tertile and used Cox proportional hazards models to study the association of testican-2 with incident ESKD. RESULTS:Higher testican-2 levels were associated with higher measured GFR (mGFR) in AASK, higher eGFR in the CRIC and ARIC studies, and lower albuminuria in all cohorts. Baseline testican-2 levels were significantly associated with incident ESKD in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and race (model 1) and model 1+mGFR or eGFR+comorbidities (model 2). In model 3 (model 2+proteinuria), the associations between testican-2 (per SD increase) and incident ESKD were AASK (hazard ratio [HR]=0.84 [0.72 to 0.98], P =0.023), CRIC (HR=0.95 [0.89 to 1.02], P =0.14), ARIC (HR=0.54 [0.36 to 0.83], P =0.0044), and meta-analysis (HR=0.92 [0.86 to 0.98], P =0.0073). CONCLUSIONS:Across three cohorts spanning >8000 individuals, testican-2 is associated with kidney health and prognosis, with higher levels associated with reduced risk of ESKD.

BACKGROUND:Proteins and metabolites are essential for many biological functions and often linked through enzymatic or transport reactions. Individual molecules have been associated with all-cause mortality. Many of these are correlated and might jointly represent pathways or endophenotypes involved in diseases. RESULTS:We present an integrated analysis of proteomics and metabolomics via a local dimensionality reduction clustering method. We identified 224 modules of correlated proteins and metabolites in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a general population cohort of older adults (N = 4046, mean age 75.7, mean eGFR 65). Many of the modules displayed strong cross-sectional associations with demographic and clinical characteristics. In comprehensively adjusted analyses, including fasting plasma glucose, history of cardiovascular disease, systolic blood pressure and kidney function among others, 60 modules were associated with mortality. We transferred the network structure to the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) (N = 694, mean age 54.5, mean mGFR 46) and identified mortality associated modules relevant in this disease specific cohort. The four mortality modules relevant in both the general population and CKD were all a combination of proteins and metabolites and were related to diabetes / insulin secretion, cardiovascular disease and kidney function. Key components of these modules included N-terminal (NT)-pro hormone BNP (NT-proBNP), Sushi, Von Willebrand Factor Type A, EGF And Pentraxin (SVEP1), and several kallikrein proteases. CONCLUSION:Through integrated biomarkers of the proteome and metabolome we identified functions of (patho-) physiologic importance related to diabetes, cardiovascular disease and kidney function.

Investigations into the causal underpinnings of disease processes can be aided by the incorporation of genetic information. Genetic studies require populations varied in both ancestry and prevalent disease in order to optimize discovery and ensure generalizability of findings to the global population. Here, we report the genetic determinants of the serum proteome in 466 African Americans with chronic kidney disease attributed to hypertension from the richly phenotyped African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) study. Using the largest aptamer-based protein profiling platform to date (6,790 proteins or protein complexes), we identified 969 genetic associations with 900 unique proteins; including 52 novel cis (local) associations and 379 novel trans (distant) associations. The genetic effects of previously published cis-protein quantitative trait loci (pQTLs) were found to be highly reproducible, and we found evidence that our novel genetic signals colocalize with gene expression and disease processes. Many trans- pQTLs were found to reflect associations mediated by the circulating cis protein, and the common trans-pQTLs are enriched for processes involving extracellular vesicles, highlighting a plausible mechanism for distal regulation of the levels of secreted proteins. Thus, our study generates a valuable resource of genetic associations linking variants to protein levels and disease in an understudied patient population to inform future studies of drug targets and physiology.