Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer incidence and death in the US. Risk factor-based guidelines and risk model-based strategies are used to identify patients who could benefit from LDCT screening. Few studies compare guidelines/models within the same cohort. We evaluate lung cancer screening performance of two risk factor-based guidelines (US Preventive Services Task Force 2014 recommendations [USPSTF-2014] and National Comprehensive Cancer Network Group 2 [NCCN-2]) and two risk model-based strategies PLCOm2012 and Bach model) in the same occupational cohort. RESEARCH QUESTION/OBJECTIVE:Which risk factor-based guideline or model-based strategy is most accurate in detecting lung cancers in a highly exposed occupational cohort? STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:and Methods: Fire Department of New York City (FDNY) rescue/recovery workers exposed to the 9/11/2001 attacks underwent LDCT lung cancer screening based on smoking history and age. The USPSTF-2014, NCCN-2, PLCOm2012 model and Bach model were retrospectively applied to determine how many lung cancers were diagnosed using each approach. RESULTS:Among the study population (N=3,953), 930 underwent a baseline scan that met at least one risk-factor or model-based LDCT screening strategy; 74% received follow-up annual scans. Among the 3,953, 63 lung cancers were diagnosed of which 50 were detected by at least one LDCT screening strategy. The NCCN-2 guideline was the most sensitive (79.4%; 50/63). When compared to NCCN-2, stricter age and smoking criteria reduced sensitivity of the other guidelines/models (USPSTF-2014[44%], PLCOm2012[51%] and Bach[46%]). The 13 missed lung cancers were mainly due to smoking less and quitting longer than guideline/model eligibility criteria. False-positive rates were similar across all four guidelines/models. INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:In this cohort, our findings support expanding eligibility for LDCT lung cancer screening by lowering smoking history from ≥30 to ≥20 pack-years and age from 55-years to 50-years old. Additional studies are needed to determine its generalizability to other occupational/environmental exposed cohorts.

Objective/UNASSIGNED:To determine if oxygen saturation (out-of-hospital SpO2), measured by New York City (NYC) 9-1-1 Emergency Medical Services (EMS), was an independent predictor of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in-hospital mortality and length of stay, after controlling for the competing risk of death. If so, out-of-hospital SpO2 could be useful for initial triage. Methods/UNASSIGNED:A population-based longitudinal study of adult patients transported by EMS to emergency departments (ED) between March 5 and April 30, 2020 (the NYC COVID-19 peak period). Inclusion required EMS prehospital SpO2 measurement while breathing room air, transport to emergency department, and a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test. Multivariable logistic regression modeled mortality as a function of prehospital SpO2, controlling for covariates (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and comorbidities). A competing risk model also was performed to estimate the absolute risks of out-of-hospital SpO2 on the cumulative incidence of being discharged from the hospital alive. Results/UNASSIGNED:In 1673 patients, out-of-hospital SpO2 and age were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and length of stay, after controlling for the competing risk of death. Among patients ≥66 years old, the probability of death was 26% with an out-of-hospital SpO2 >90% versus 54% with an out-of-hospital SpO2 ≤90%. Among patients <66 years old, the probability of death was 11.5% with an out-of-hospital SpO2 >90% versus 31% with an out-of-hospital SpO2 ≤ 90%. An out-of-hospital SpO2 level ≤90% was associated with over 50% decreased likelihood of being discharged alive, regardless of age. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:Out-of-hospital SpO2 and age predicted in-hospital mortality and length of stay: An out-of-hospital SpO2 ≤90% strongly supports a triage decision for immediate hospital admission. For out-of-hospital SpO2 >90%, the decision to admit depends on multiple factors, including age, resource availability (outpatient vs inpatient), and the potential impact of new treatments.

Mortality among patients with COVID-19 and respiratory failure is high and there are no known lower airway biomarkers that predict clinical outcome. We investigated whether bacterial respiratory infections and viral load were associated with poor clinical outcome and host immune tone. We obtained bacterial and fungal culture data from 589 critically ill subjects with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation. On a subset of the subjects that underwent bronchoscopy, we also quantified SARS-CoV-2 viral load, analyzed the microbiome of the lower airways by metagenome and metatranscriptome analyses and profiled the host immune response. We found that isolation of a hospital-acquired respiratory pathogen was not associated with fatal outcome. However, poor clinical outcome was associated with enrichment of the lower airway microbiota with an oral commensal ( Mycoplasma salivarium ), while high SARS-CoV-2 viral burden, poor anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody response, together with a unique host transcriptome profile of the lower airways were most predictive of mortality. Collectively, these data support the hypothesis that 1) the extent of viral infectivity drives mortality in severe COVID-19, and therefore 2) clinical management strategies targeting viral replication and host responses to SARS-CoV-2 should be prioritized.

Mortality among patients with COVID-19 and respiratory failure is high and there are no known lower airway biomarkers that predict clinical outcome. We investigated whether bacterial respiratory infections and viral load were associated with poor clinical outcome and host immune tone. We obtained bacterial and fungal culture data from 589 critically ill subjects with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation. On a subset of the subjects that underwent bronchoscopy, we also quantified SARS-CoV-2 viral load, analyzed the microbiome of the lower airways by metagenome and metatranscriptome analyses and profiled the host immune response. We found that isolation of a hospital-acquired respiratory pathogen was not associated with fatal outcome. However, poor clinical outcome was associated with enrichment of the lower airway microbiota with an oral commensal ( Mycoplasma salivarium ), while high SARS-CoV-2 viral burden, poor anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody response, together with a unique host transcriptome profile of the lower airways were most predictive of mortality. Collectively, these data support the hypothesis that 1) the extent of viral infectivity drives mortality in severe COVID-19, and therefore 2) clinical management strategies targeting viral replication and host responses to SARS-CoV-2 should be prioritized.

Risk factors for #COVID19 infection and severe disease (hospitalisation or death) in NYC first responders: greater pre-pandemic rate of FEV₁ decline is associated with severe COVID-19, as is emergency medical service work versus firefighting https://bit.ly/3nZPuZY.

The factors that predict treatment of lung injury in occupational cohorts are poorly defined. We aimed to identify patient characteristics associated with initiation of treatment with inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting beta-agonist (ICS/LABA) >2 years among World Trade Center (WTC)-exposed firefighters. The study population included 8530 WTC-exposed firefighters. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the association of patient characteristics with ICS/LABA treatment for >2 years over two-year intervals from 11 September 2001-10 September 2017. Cox proportional hazards models measured the association of high probability of ICS/LABA initiation with actual ICS/LABA initiation in subsequent intervals. Between 11 September 2001-1 July 2018, 1629/8530 (19.1%) firefighters initiated ICS/LABA treatment for >2 years. Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 s (FEV₁), wheeze, and dyspnea were consistently and independently associated with ICS/LABA treatment. High-intensity WTC exposure was associated with ICS/LABA between 11 September 2001-10 September 2003. The 10th percentile of risk for ICS/LABA between 11 September 2005-10 Septmeber 2007 was associated with a 3.32-fold increased hazard of actual ICS/LABA initiation in the subsequent 4 years. In firefighters with WTC exposure, FEV₁, wheeze, and dyspnea were independently associated with prolonged ICS/LABA treatment. A high risk for treatment was identifiable from routine monitoring exam results years before treatment initiation.

Objectives/UNASSIGNED:To describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on New York City's (NYC) 9-1-1 emergency medical services (EMS) system and assess the efficacy of pandemic planning to meet increased demands. Methods/UNASSIGNED:Longitudinal analysis of NYC 9-1-1 EMS system call volumes, call-types, and response times during the COVID-19 peak-period (March 16-April 15, 2020) and post-surge period (April 16-May 31, 2020) compared with the same 2019 periods. Results/UNASSIGNED: < 0.001). Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:COVID-19-associated NYC 9-1-1 EMS volume surge was primarily due to respiratory and cardiovascular call-types. As the pandemic stabilized, call volume declined to below pre-pandemic levels. Our results highlight the importance of EMS system-wide pandemic crisis planning.

Importance/UNASSIGNED:Risk factors for out-of-hospital death due to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are poorly defined. From March 1 to April 25, 2020, New York City, New York (NYC), reported 17 118 COVID-19-related deaths. On April 6, 2020, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests peaked at 305 cases, nearly a 10-fold increase from the prior year. Objective/UNASSIGNED:To describe the characteristics (race/ethnicity, comorbidities, and emergency medical services [EMS] response) associated with outpatient cardiac arrests and death during the COVID-19 pandemic in NYC. Design, Setting, and Participants/UNASSIGNED:This population-based, cross-sectional study compared patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest receiving resuscitation by the NYC 911 EMS system from March 1 to April 25, 2020, compared with March 1 to April 25, 2019. The NYC 911 EMS system serves more than 8.4 million people. Exposures/UNASSIGNED:The COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcomes and Measures/UNASSIGNED:Characteristics associated with out-of-hospital arrests and the outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. Results/UNASSIGNED:A total of 5325 patients were included in the main analysis (2935 men [56.2%]; mean [SD] age, 71 [18] years), 3989 in the COVID-19 period and 1336 in the comparison period. The incidence of nontraumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in those who underwent EMS resuscitation in 2020 was 3 times the incidence in 2019 (47.5/100 000 vs 15.9/100 000). Patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during 2020 were older (mean [SD] age, 72 [18] vs 68 [19] years), less likely to be white (611 of 2992 [20.4%] vs 382 of 1161 [32.9%]), and more likely to have hypertension (2134 of 3989 [53.5%] vs 611 of 1336 [45.7%]), diabetes (1424 of 3989 [35.7%] vs 348 of 1336 [26.0%]), and physical limitations (2259 of 3989 [56.6%] vs 634 of 1336 [47.5%]). Compared with 2019, the odds of asystole increased in the COVID-19 period (odds ratio [OR], 3.50; 95% CI, 2.53-4.84; P < .001), as did the odds of pulseless electrical activity (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.31-3.02; P = .001). Compared with 2019, the COVID-19 period had substantial reductions in return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (727 of 3989 patients [18.2%] vs 463 of 1336 patients [34.7%], P < .001) and sustained ROSC (423 of 3989 patients [10.6%] vs 337 of 1336 patients [25.2%], P < .001), with fatality rates exceeding 90%. These associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for potential confounders (OR for ROSC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.50-0.70; P < .001]; OR for sustained ROSC, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.43-0.64; P < .001]). Conclusions and Relevance/UNASSIGNED:In this population-based, cross-sectional study, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased compared with the same period the previous year and were associated with older age, nonwhite race/ethnicity, hypertension, diabetes, physical limitations, and nonshockable presenting rhythms. Identifying patients with the greatest risk for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and death during the COVID-19 pandemic should allow for early, targeted interventions in the outpatient setting that could lead to reductions in out-of-hospital deaths.