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The hidden risk of round numbers and sharp thresholds in clinical practice

Lengerich, Benjamin J; Caruana, Rich; Nunnally, Mark E; Kellis, Manolis
Clinical decision-making often simplifies continuous risk data into discrete levels using round-number thresholds. These simplifications can distort risk assessments. To systematically uncover these distortions, we develop an interpretable machine learning model that identifies anomalies caused by threshold-based practices. Through simulations, real-world data, and longitudinal studies, we demonstrate how round-number thresholds can lead to discontinuities and counter-causal paradoxes in mortality risk. Despite advances in medicine, these anomalies persist, underscoring the need for dynamic and nuanced risk assessment methods in healthcare. Our findings suggest continuous reassessment of clinical protocols, especially in critical settings like intensive care, to improve patient outcomes by aligning thresholds with the continuous nature of risk.
PMCID:12638946
PMID: 41272088
ISSN: 2398-6352
CID: 5976212

Impact of phenobarbital when used in combination with benzodiazepines for the treatment of alcohol withdrawal syndrome: A retrospective analysis

Cheng, Xian Jie Cindy; Chung, Juri; Yoo, Noah; Akerman, Meredith; Bender, Michael; Chan, Kathryn; Meier, Erin; Nunnally, Mark
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE:Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) is a serious complication of alcohol use disorder. Although benzodiazepines are the mainstay of treatment, some patients may be resistant to them, requiring rapidly escalating doses. Phenobarbital has emerged as an effective adjunct therapy in severe alcohol withdrawal, but studies have yielded inconsistent results and carry safety risks. The purpose of our study was to examine the effectiveness and the potential harm of phenobarbital in AWS. METHODS:In this multi-center, retrospective cohort study, patients who were admitted for AWS and received phenobarbital with benzodiazepine were compared to patients who received benzodiazepine monotherapy. The primary outcome was time to AWS resolution. Other secondary and safety outcomes included length of stay (LOS), rate of mechanical ventilation, and incidence of aspiration pneumonia. RESULTS:The phenobarbital group received significantly higher doses of benzodiazepines compared to the benzodiazepine monotherapy group (660 mg vs 340 mg, p < 0.0001). After adjustment, the use of phenobarbital was associated with significantly reduced time to AWS resolution (141.65 h vs 165.72 h, p < 0.0001). However, the use of phenobarbital was associated with the likelihood of mechanical ventilation (19.42 %vs. 0.96 %, p < 0.0001), aspiration pneumonia (22.33 % vs 5.77 %, p = 0.0006), and increased hospital LOS (8 days vs. 6 days, p = 0.0197). In the combination group, earlier phenobarbital initiation (within 24 h) was associated with significantly lower cumulative benzodiazepine dose (530 mg vs 887.50 mg, p = 0.002) and hospital LOS (6 days vs 10 days, p = 0.0017). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE/CONCLUSIONS:In our study, patients who received phenobarbital in combination with benzodiazepines had a quicker resolution of AWS but also had a higher incidence of mechanical ventilation, prolonged hospital LOS, and an increased risk of aspiration pneumonia. For patients at high risk of severe alcohol withdrawal, earlier initiation of phenobarbital appeared to yield the most optimal benefit.
PMID: 40080990
ISSN: 1532-8171
CID: 5808812

Invited Commentary: The Stress Index [Editorial]

Nunnally, Mark E
PMID: 38918096
ISSN: 1532-8422
CID: 5733102

Perioperative Considerations in Older Kidney and Liver Transplant Recipients: A Review

Chanan, Emily L; Wagener, Gebhard; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Berger, Jonathan C; McAdams-DeMarco, Mara A; Yeh, Joseph S; Nunnally, Mark E
With the growth of the older adult population, the number of older adults waitlisted for and undergoing kidney and liver transplantation has increased. Transplantation is an important and definitive treatment for this population. We present a contemporary review of the unique preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative issues that patients older than 65 y face when they undergo kidney or liver transplantation. We focus on geriatric syndromes that are common in older patients listed for kidney or liver transplantation including frailty, sarcopenia, and cognitive dysfunction; discuss important considerations for older transplant recipients, which may impact preoperative risk stratification; and describe unique challenges in intraoperative and postoperative management for older patients. Intraoperative challenges in the older adult include using evidence-based best anesthetic practices, maintaining adequate perfusion pressure, and using minimally invasive surgical techniques. Postoperative concerns include controlling acute postoperative pain; preventing cardiovascular complications and delirium; optimizing immunosuppression; preventing perioperative kidney injury; and avoiding nephrotoxicity and rehabilitation. Future studies are needed throughout the perioperative period to identify interventions that will improve patients' preoperative physiologic status, prevent postoperative medical complications, and improve medical and patient-centered outcomes in this vulnerable patient population.
PMCID:11442682
PMID: 38557579
ISSN: 1534-6080
CID: 5728962

Lessons Learned From Extracorporeal Life Support Practice and Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Gill, George; O'Connor, Michael; Nunnally, Mark E; Combes, Alain; Harper, Michael; Baran, David; Avila, Mary; Pisani, Barbara; Copeland, Hannah; Nurok, Michael
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation is increasingly being used to support patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure and cardiogenic shock. During the COVID-19 pandemic, consensus guidance recommended extracorporeal life support for patients with COVID-19-related cardiopulmonary disease refractory to optimal conventional therapy, prompting a substantial expansion in the use of this support modality. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was particularly integral to the bridging of COVID-19 patients to heart or lung transplantation. Limited human and physical resources precluded widespread utilization of mechanical support during the COVID-19 pandemic, necessitating careful patient selection and optimal management by expert healthcare teams for judicious extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. This review outlines the evidence supporting the use of extracorporeal life support in COVID-19, describes the practice and outcomes of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for COVID-19-related respiratory failure and cardiogenic shock, and proposes lessons learned for the implementation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a bridge to transplantation in future public health emergencies.
PMID: 39469754
ISSN: 1399-0012
CID: 5746842

Subclavian Catheter: When Ultrasound Tells Us Left Is "Right"

Nunnally, Mark E
PMID: 39283210
ISSN: 1530-0293
CID: 5719992

The vial can help: Standardizing vial design to reduce the risk of medication errors

Bitan, Yuval; O'Connor, Michael F; Nunnally, Mark E
PMID: 38251720
ISSN: 1537-1913
CID: 5624642

A Review and Discussion of Full-Time Equivalency and Appropriate Compensation Models for an Adult Intensivist in the United States Across Various Base Specialties

Nurok, Michael; Flynn, Brigid C; Pineton de Chambrun, Marc; Kazemian, Mina; Geiderman, Joel; Nunnally, Mark E
OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:Physicians with training in anesthesiology, emergency medicine, internal medicine, neurology, and surgery may gain board certification in critical care medicine upon completion of fellowship training. These clinicians often only spend a portion of their work effort in the ICU. Other work efforts that benefit an ICU infrastructure, but do not provide billing opportunities, include education, research, and administrative duties. For employed or contracted physicians, there is no singular definition of what constitutes an intensive care full-time equivalent (FTE). Nevertheless, hospitals often consider FTEs in assessing hiring needs, salary, and eligibility for benefits. DATA SOURCES/METHODS:Review of existing literature, expert opinion. STUDY SELECTION/METHODS:Not applicable. DATA EXTRACTION/METHODS:Not applicable. DATA SYNTHESIS/RESULTS:Not applicable. CONCLUSIONS:Understanding how an FTE is calculated, and the fraction of an FTE to be assigned to a particular cost center, is therefore important for intensivists of different specialties, as many employment models assign salary and benefits to a base specialty department and not necessarily the ICU.
PMCID:10965199
PMID: 38533294
ISSN: 2639-8028
CID: 5644842

Surviving Sepsis Campaign Research Priorities 2023

De Backer, Daniel; Deutschman, Clifford S; Hellman, Judith; Myatra, Sheila Nainan; Ostermann, Marlies; Prescott, Hallie C; Talmor, Daniel; Antonelli, Massimo; Pontes Azevedo, Luciano Cesar; Bauer, Seth R; Kissoon, Niranjan; Loeches, Ignacio-Martin; Nunnally, Mark; Tissieres, Pierre; Vieillard-Baron, Antoine; Coopersmith, Craig M; ,
OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:To identify research priorities in the management, epidemiology, outcome, and pathophysiology of sepsis and septic shock. DESIGN/METHODS:Shortly after publication of the most recent Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines, the Surviving Sepsis Research Committee, a multiprofessional group of 16 international experts representing the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the Society of Critical Care Medicine, convened virtually and iteratively developed the article and recommendations, which represents an update from the 2018 Surviving Sepsis Campaign Research Priorities. METHODS:Each task force member submitted five research questions on any sepsis-related subject. Committee members then independently ranked their top three priorities from the list generated. The highest rated clinical and basic science questions were developed into the current article. RESULTS:A total of 81 questions were submitted. After merging similar questions, there were 34 clinical and ten basic science research questions submitted for voting. The five top clinical priorities were as follows: 1) what is the best strategy for screening and identification of patients with sepsis, and can predictive modeling assist in real-time recognition of sepsis? 2) what causes organ injury and dysfunction in sepsis, how should it be defined, and how can it be detected? 3) how should fluid resuscitation be individualized initially and beyond? 4) what is the best vasopressor approach for treating the different phases of septic shock? and 5) can a personalized/precision medicine approach identify optimal therapies to improve patient outcomes? The five top basic science priorities were as follows: 1) How can we improve animal models so that they more closely resemble sepsis in humans? 2) What outcome variables maximize correlations between human sepsis and animal models and are therefore most appropriate to use in both? 3) How does sepsis affect the brain, and how do sepsis-induced brain alterations contribute to organ dysfunction? How does sepsis affect interactions between neural, endocrine, and immune systems? 4) How does the microbiome affect sepsis pathobiology? 5) How do genetics and epigenetics influence the development of sepsis, the course of sepsis and the response to treatments for sepsis? CONCLUSIONS:Knowledge advances in multiple clinical domains have been incorporated in progressive iterations of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines, allowing for evidence-based recommendations for short- and long-term management of sepsis. However, the strength of existing evidence is modest with significant knowledge gaps and mortality from sepsis remains high. The priorities identified represent a roadmap for research in sepsis and septic shock.
PMID: 38240508
ISSN: 1530-0293
CID: 5624442

Is Expertise Evidence? Insights From A New Guideline

Nunnally, Mark E
PMID: 37971342
ISSN: 1530-0293
CID: 5610572