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Identification of patients at risk for pancreatic cancer in a 3-year timeframe based on machine learning algorithms

Zhu, Weicheng; Chen, Long; Aphinyanaphongs, Yindalon; Kastrinos, Fay; Simeone, Diane M; Pochapin, Mark; Stender, Cody; Razavian, Narges; Gonda, Tamas A
Early detection of pancreatic cancer (PC) remains challenging largely due to the low population incidence and few known risk factors. However, screening in at-risk populations and detection of early cancer has the potential to significantly alter survival. In this study, we aim to develop a predictive model to identify patients at risk for developing new-onset PC at two and a half to three year time frame. We used the Electronic Health Records (EHR) of a large medical system from 2000 to 2021 (N = 537,410). The EHR data analyzed in this work consists of patients' demographic information, diagnosis records, and lab values, which are used to identify patients who were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and the risk factors used in the machine learning algorithm for prediction. We identified 73 risk factors of pancreatic cancer with the Phenome-wide Association Study (PheWAS) on a matched case-control cohort. Based on them, we built a large-scale machine learning algorithm based on EHR. A temporally stratified validation based on patients not included in any stage of the training of the model was performed. This model showed an AUROC at 0.742 [0.727, 0.757] which was similar in both the general population and in a subset of the population who has had prior cross-sectional imaging. The rate of diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in those in the top 1 percentile of the risk score was 6 folds higher than the general population. Our model leverages data extracted from a 6-month window of time in the electronic health record to identify patients at nearly sixfold higher than baseline risk of developing pancreatic cancer 2.5-3 years from evaluation. This approach offers an opportunity to define an enriched population entirely based on static data, where current screening may be recommended.
PMID: 40188106
ISSN: 2045-2322
CID: 5819542

Extracellular vesicles from the lung pro-thrombotic niche drive cancer-associated thrombosis and metastasis via integrin beta 2

Lucotti, Serena; Ogitani, Yusuke; Kenific, Candia M; Geri, Jacob; Kim, Young Hun; Gu, Jinghua; Balaji, Uthra; Bojmar, Linda; Shaashua, Lee; Song, Yi; Cioffi, Michele; Lauritzen, Pernille; Joseph, Oveen M; Asao, Tetsuhiko; Grandgenett, Paul M; Hollingsworth, Michael A; Peralta, Christopher; Pagano, Alexandra E; Molina, Henrik; Lengel, Harry B; Dunne, Elizabeth G; Jing, Xiaohong; Schmitter, Madeleine; Borriello, Lucia; Miller, Thomas; Zhang, Haiying; Romin, Yevgeniy; Manova, Katia; Paul, Doru; Remmel, H Lawrence; O'Reilly, Eileen M; Jarnagin, William R; Kelsen, David; Castellino, Sharon M; Giulino-Roth, Lisa; Jones, David R; Condeelis, John S; Pascual, Virginia; Bussel, James B; Boudreau, Nancy; Matei, Irina; Entenberg, David; Bromberg, Jacqueline F; Simeone, Diane M; Lyden, David
Cancer is a systemic disease with complications beyond the primary tumor site. Among them, thrombosis is the second leading cause of death in patients with certain cancers (e.g., pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) and advanced-stage disease. Here, we demonstrate that pro-thrombotic small extracellular vesicles (sEVs) are secreted by C-X-C motif chemokine 13 (CXCL13)-reprogrammed interstitial macrophages in the non-metastatic lung microenvironment of multiple cancers, a niche that we define as the pro-thrombotic niche (PTN). These sEVs package clustered integrin β2 that dimerizes with integrin αX and interacts with platelet-bound glycoprotein (GP)Ib to induce platelet aggregation. Blocking integrin β2 decreases both sEV-induced thrombosis and lung metastasis. Importantly, sEV-β2 levels are elevated in the plasma of PDAC patients prior to thrombotic events compared with patients with no history of thrombosis. We show that lung PTN establishment is a systemic consequence of cancer progression and identify sEV-β2 as a prognostic biomarker of thrombosis risk as well as a target to prevent thrombosis and metastasis.
PMID: 39938515
ISSN: 1097-4172
CID: 5812692

Longitudinal assessment of disparities in pancreatic cancer care: A retrospective analysis of the National Cancer Database

Grewal, Mahip; Kroon, Victor J; Kaslow, Sarah R; Sorrentino, Anthony M; Winner, Megan D; Allendorf, John D; Shah, Paresh C; Simeone, Diane M; Welling, Theodore H; Berman, Russell S; Cohen, Steven M; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Sacks, Greg D; Javed, Ammar A
BACKGROUND:The existence of sociodemographic disparities in pancreatic cancer has been well-studied but how these disparities have changed over time is unclear. The purpose of this study was to longitudinally assess patient management in the context of sociodemographic factors to identify persisting disparities in pancreatic cancer care. METHODS:Using the National Cancer Database, patients diagnosed with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from 2010 to 2017 were identified. The primary outcomes were surgical resection and/or receipt of chemotherapy. Outcome measures included changes in associations between sociodemographic factors (i.e., sex, age, race, comorbidity index, SES, and insurance type) and treatment-related factors (i.e., clinical stage at diagnosis, surgical resection, and receipt of chemotherapy). For each year, associations were assessed via univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS:Of 75,801 studied patients, the majority were female (51%), White (83%), and had government insurance (65%). Older age (range of OR 2010-2017 [range-OR]:0.19-0.29), Black race (range-OR: 0.61-0.78), lower SES (range-OR: 0.52-0.94), and uninsured status (range-OR: 0.46-0.71) were associated with lower odds of surgical resection (all p < 0.005), with minimal fluctuations over the study period. Older age (range-OR: 0.11-0.84), lower SES (range-OR: 0.41-0.63), and uninsured status (range-OR: 0.38-0.61) were associated with largely stable lower odds of receiving chemotherapy (all p < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS:Throughout the study period, age, SES, and insurance type were associated with stable lower odds for both surgery and chemotherapy. Black patients exhibited stable lower odds of resection underscoring the continued importance of mitigating racial disparities in surgery. Investigation of mechanisms driving sociodemographic disparities are needed to promote equitable care.
PMID: 39653505
ISSN: 1432-2323
CID: 5762392

The role of family history in predicting germline pathogenic variant carriers who develop pancreatic cancer: Results of a multicenter collaboration

Karloski, Eve; Dudley, Beth; Diergaarde, Brenda; Blanco, Amie; Everett, Jessica N; Levinson, Elana; Rangarajan, Tara; Stanich, Peter P; Childers, Kimberly; Brown, Sandra; Drogan, Christine; Cavestro, Giulia Martina; Gordon, Kelly; Singh, Aparajita; Simeone, Diane M; Reich, Hannah; Kastrinos, Fay; Zakalik, Dana; Hampel, Heather; Pearlman, Rachel; Gordon, Ora K; Kupfer, Sonia S; Puzzono, Marta; Zuppardo, Raffaella Alessia; Brand, Randall E
BACKGROUND:Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance is recommended for some individuals with a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant (PV/LPV) in a PDAC susceptibility gene; the recommendation is often dependent on family history of PDAC. This study aimed to describe PDAC family history in individuals with PDAC who underwent genetic testing to determine the appropriateness of including a family history requirement in these recommendations. METHODS:Individuals with PDAC with a germline heterozygous PV/LPV in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, EPCAM, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PALB2, or PMS2 (PV/LPV carriers) were assessed for family history of PDAC in first-degree relatives (FDRs) or second-degree relatives (SDRs) from nine institutions. A control group of individuals with PDAC without a germline PV/LPV was also assessed. RESULTS:The study included 196 PV/LPV carriers and 1184 controls. In the PV/LPV carriers, 25.5% had an affected FDR and/or SDR compared to 16.9% in the control group (p = .004). PV/LPV carriers were more likely to have an affected FDR compared to the controls (p = .003) but there was no statistical difference when assessing only affected SDRs (p = .344). CONCLUSIONS:Most PV/LPV carriers who developed PDAC did not have a close family history of PDAC and would not have met most current professional societies' recommendations for consideration of PDAC surveillance before diagnosis. However, PV/LPV carriers were significantly more likely to have a family history of PDAC, particularly an affected FDR. These findings support family history as a risk modifier in PV/LPV carriers, and highlight the need to identify other risk factors.
PMID: 38809542
ISSN: 1097-0142
CID: 5663572

Blockade of IL1β and PD1 with Combination Chemotherapy Reduces Systemic Myeloid Suppression in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer with Heterogeneous Effects in the Tumor

Oberstein, Paul E; Dias Costa, Andressa; Kawaler, Emily A; Cardot-Ruffino, Victoire; Rahma, Osama E; Beri, Nina; Singh, Harshabad; Abrams, Thomas A; Biller, Leah H; Cleary, James M; Enzinger, Peter; Huffman, Brandon M; McCleary, Nadine J; Perez, Kimberly J; Rubinson, Douglas A; Schlechter, Benjamin L; Surana, Rishi; Yurgelun, Matthew B; Wang, S Jennifer; Remland, Joshua; Brais, Lauren K; Bollenrucher, Naima; Chang, Eugena; Ali, Lestat R; Lenehan, Patrick J; Dolgalev, Igor; Werba, Gregor; Lima, Cibelle; Keheler, C Elizabeth; Sullivan, Keri M; Dougan, Michael; Hajdu, Cristina; Dajee, Maya; Pelletier, Marc R; Nazeer, Saloney; Squires, Matthew; Bar-Sagi, Dafna; Wolpin, Brian M; Nowak, Jonathan A; Simeone, Diane M; Dougan, Stephanie K
Innate inflammation promotes tumor development, although the role of innate inflammatory cytokines in established human tumors is unclear. Herein, we report clinical and translational results from a phase Ib trial testing whether IL1β blockade in human pancreatic cancer would alleviate myeloid immunosuppression and reveal antitumor T-cell responses to PD1 blockade. Patients with treatment-naïve advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (n = 10) were treated with canakinumab, a high-affinity monoclonal human antiinterleukin-1β (IL1β), the PD1 blocking antibody spartalizumab, and gemcitabine/n(ab)paclitaxel. Analysis of paired peripheral blood from patients in the trial versus patients receiving multiagent chemotherapy showed a modest increase in HLA-DR+CD38+ activated CD8+ T cells and a decrease in circulating monocytic myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC) by flow cytometry for patients in the trial but not in controls. Similarly, we used patient serum to differentiate monocytic MDSCs in vitro and showed that functional inhibition of T-cell proliferation was reduced when using on-treatment serum samples from patients in the trial but not when using serum from patients treated with chemotherapy alone. Within the tumor, we observed few changes in suppressive myeloid-cell populations or activated T cells as assessed by single-cell transcriptional profiling or multiplex immunofluorescence, although increases in CD8+ T cells suggest that improvements in the tumor immune microenvironment might be revealed by a larger study. Overall, the data indicate that exposure to PD1 and IL1β blockade induced a modest reactivation of peripheral CD8+ T cells and decreased circulating monocytic MDSCs; however, these changes did not lead to similarly uniform alterations in the tumor microenvironment.
PMCID:11369625
PMID: 38990554
ISSN: 2326-6074
CID: 5687222

Somatic Mutational Analysis in EUS-Guided Biopsy of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: Assessing Yield and Impact

Dong, Sue; Agarunov, Emil; Fasullo, Matthew; Kim, Ki-Yoon; Khanna, Lauren; Haber, Gregory; Janec, Eileen; Simeone, Diane; Oberstein, Paul; Gonda, Tamas
OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:We sought to determine the yield of somatic mutational analysis from EUS-guided biopsies of pancreatic adenocarcinoma compared to that of surgical resection and to assess the impact of these results on oncologic treatment. METHODS:We determined the yield of EUS sampling and surgical resection. We evaluated the potential impact of mutational analysis by identifying actionable mutations and its direct impact by reviewing actual treatment decisions. RESULTS:Yield of EUS sampling was 89.5%, comparable to the 95.8% yield of surgical resection. Over a quarter in the EUS cohort carried actionable mutations, and of these, over one in six had treatment impacted by mutational analysis. CONCLUSIONS:EUS sampling is nearly always adequate for somatic testing and may have substantial potential and real impact on treatment decisions.
PMID: 38546128
ISSN: 1572-0241
CID: 5645102

Progression of Site-specific Recurrence of Pancreatic Cancer and Implications for Treatment

Rompen, Ingmar F; Levine, Jonah; Habib, Joseph R; Sereni, Elisabetta; Mughal, Nabiha; Hewitt, Daniel Brock; Sacks, Greg D; Welling, Theodore H; Simeone, Diane M; Kaplan, Brian; Berman, Russell S; Cohen, Steven M; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Javed, Ammar A
OBJECTIVE:To analyze postrecurrence progression in the context of recurrence sites and assess implications for postrecurrence treatment. BACKGROUND:Most patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) recur within 2 years. Different survival outcomes for location-specific patterns of recurrence are reported, highlighting their prognostic value. However, a lack of understanding of postrecurrence progression and survival remains. METHODS:This retrospective analysis included surgically treated patients with PDAC at NYU Langone Health (2010-2021). Sites of recurrence were identified at the time of diagnosis and further follow-up. Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test, and Cox regression analyses were applied to assess survival outcomes. RESULTS:Recurrence occurred in 57.3% (196/342) patients with a median time to recurrence of 11.3 months (95% CI: 12.6-16.5). The first site of recurrence was local in 43.9% of patients, liver in 23.5%, peritoneal in 8.7%, lung in 3.6%, whereas 20.4% had multiple sites of recurrence. Progression to secondary sites was observed in 11.7%. Only lung involvement was associated with significantly longer survival after recurrence compared with other sites (16.9 vs 8.49 months, P = 0.003). In local recurrence, 21 (33.3%) patients were alive after 1 year without progression to secondary sites. This was associated with a CA19-9 of <100 U/mL at the time of primary diagnosis ( P = 0.039), nodal negative disease ( P = 0.023), and well-moderate differentiation ( P = 0.042) compared with patients with progression. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Except for lung recurrence, postrecurrence survival after PDAC resection is associated with poor survival. A subset of patients with local-only recurrence do not quickly succumb to systemic spread. This is associated with markers for favorable tumor biology, making them candidates for potential curative re-resections when feasible.
PMCID:11259998
PMID: 37870253
ISSN: 1528-1140
CID: 5697432

Multi-parametric atlas of the pre-metastatic liver for prediction of metastatic outcome in early-stage pancreatic cancer

Bojmar, Linda; Zambirinis, Constantinos P; Hernandez, Jonathan M; Chakraborty, Jayasree; Shaashua, Lee; Kim, Junbum; Johnson, Kofi Ennu; Hanna, Samer; Askan, Gokce; Burman, Jonas; Ravichandran, Hiranmayi; Zheng, Jian; Jolissaint, Joshua S; Srouji, Rami; Song, Yi; Choubey, Ankur; Kim, Han Sang; Cioffi, Michele; van Beek, Elke; Sigel, Carlie; Jessurun, Jose; Velasco Riestra, Paulina; Blomstrand, Hakon; Jönsson, Carolin; Jönsson, Anette; Lauritzen, Pernille; Buehring, Weston; Ararso, Yonathan; Hernandez, Dylanne; Vinagolu-Baur, Jessica P; Friedman, Madison; Glidden, Caroline; Firmenich, Laetitia; Lieberman, Grace; Mejia, Dianna L; Nasar, Naaz; Mutvei, Anders P; Paul, Doru M; Bram, Yaron; Costa-Silva, Bruno; Basturk, Olca; Boudreau, Nancy; Zhang, Haiying; Matei, Irina R; Hoshino, Ayuko; Kelsen, David; Sagi, Irit; Scherz, Avigdor; Scherz-Shouval, Ruth; Yarden, Yosef; Oren, Moshe; Egeblad, Mikala; Lewis, Jason S; Keshari, Kayvan; Grandgenett, Paul M; Hollingsworth, Michael A; Rajasekhar, Vinagolu K; Healey, John H; Björnsson, Bergthor; Simeone, Diane M; Tuveson, David A; Iacobuzio-Donahue, Christine A; Bromberg, Jaqueline; Vincent, C Theresa; O'Reilly, Eileen M; DeMatteo, Ronald P; Balachandran, Vinod P; D'Angelica, Michael I; Kingham, T Peter; Allen, Peter J; Simpson, Amber L; Elemento, Olivier; Sandström, Per; Schwartz, Robert E; Jarnagin, William R; Lyden, David
Metastasis occurs frequently after resection of pancreatic cancer (PaC). In this study, we hypothesized that multi-parametric analysis of pre-metastatic liver biopsies would classify patients according to their metastatic risk, timing and organ site. Liver biopsies obtained during pancreatectomy from 49 patients with localized PaC and 19 control patients with non-cancerous pancreatic lesions were analyzed, combining metabolomic, tissue and single-cell transcriptomics and multiplex imaging approaches. Patients were followed prospectively (median 3 years) and classified into four recurrence groups; early (<6 months after resection) or late (>6 months after resection) liver metastasis (LiM); extrahepatic metastasis (EHM); and disease-free survivors (no evidence of disease (NED)). Overall, PaC livers exhibited signs of augmented inflammation compared to controls. Enrichment of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), Ki-67 upregulation and decreased liver creatine significantly distinguished those with future metastasis from NED. Patients with future LiM were characterized by scant T cell lobular infiltration, less steatosis and higher levels of citrullinated H3 compared to patients who developed EHM, who had overexpression of interferon target genes (MX1 and NR1D1) and an increase of CD11B+ natural killer (NK) cells. Upregulation of sortilin-1 and prominent NETs, together with the lack of T cells and a reduction in CD11B+ NK cells, differentiated patients with early-onset LiM from those with late-onset LiM. Liver profiles of NED closely resembled those of controls. Using the above parameters, a machine-learning-based model was developed that successfully predicted the metastatic outcome at the time of surgery with 78% accuracy. Therefore, multi-parametric profiling of liver biopsies at the time of PaC diagnosis may determine metastatic risk and organotropism and guide clinical stratification for optimal treatment selection.
PMID: 38942992
ISSN: 1546-170x
CID: 5680082

The Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection (PRECEDE) Study is a Global Effort to Drive Early Detection: Baseline Imaging Findings in High-Risk Individuals

Zogopoulos, George; Haimi, Ido; Sanoba, Shenin A; Everett, Jessica N; Wang, Yifan; Katona, Bryson W; Farrell, James J; Grossberg, Aaron J; Paiella, Salvatore; Klute, Kelsey A; Bi, Yan; Wallace, Michael B; Kwon, Richard S; Stoffel, Elena M; Wadlow, Raymond C; Sussman, Daniel A; Merchant, Nipun B; Permuth, Jennifer B; Golan, Talia; Raitses-Gurevich, Maria; Lowy, Andrew M; Liau, Joy; Jeter, Joanne M; Lindberg, James M; Chung, Daniel C; Earl, Julie; Brentnall, Teresa A; Schrader, Kasmintan A; Kaul, Vivek; Huang, Chenchan; Chandarana, Hersh; Smerdon, Caroline; Graff, John J; Kastrinos, Fay; Kupfer, Sonia S; Lucas, Aimee L; Sears, Rosalie C; Brand, Randall E; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Simeone, Diane M; ,
BACKGROUND:Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC) is a highly lethal malignancy with a survival rate of only 12%. Surveillance is recommended for high-risk individuals (HRIs), but it is not widely adopted. To address this unmet clinical need and drive early diagnosis research, we established the Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection (PRECEDE) Consortium. METHODS:PRECEDE is a multi-institutional international collaboration that has undertaken an observational prospective cohort study. Individuals (aged 18-90 years) are enrolled into 1 of 7 cohorts based on family history and pathogenic germline variant (PGV) status. From April 1, 2020, to November 21, 2022, a total of 3,402 participants were enrolled in 1 of 7 study cohorts, with 1,759 (51.7%) meeting criteria for the highest-risk cohort (Cohort 1). Cohort 1 HRIs underwent germline testing and pancreas imaging by MRI/MR-cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound. RESULTS:A total of 1,400 participants in Cohort 1 (79.6%) had completed baseline imaging and were subclassified into 3 groups based on familial PC (FPC; n=670), a PGV and FPC (PGV+/FPC+; n=115), and a PGV with a pedigree that does not meet FPC criteria (PGV+/FPC-; n=615). One HRI was diagnosed with stage IIB PC on study entry, and 35.1% of HRIs harbored pancreatic cysts. Increasing age (odds ratio, 1.05; P<.001) and FPC group assignment (odds ratio, 1.57; P<.001; relative to PGV+/FPC-) were independent predictors of harboring a pancreatic cyst. CONCLUSIONS:PRECEDE provides infrastructure support to increase access to clinical surveillance for HRIs worldwide, while aiming to drive early PC detection advancements through longitudinal standardized clinical data, imaging, and biospecimen captures. Increased cyst prevalence in HRIs with FPC suggests that FPC may infer distinct biological processes. To enable the development of PC surveillance approaches better tailored to risk category, we recommend adoption of subclassification of HRIs into FPC, PGV+/FPC+, and PGV+/FPC- risk groups by surveillance protocols.
PMID: 38626807
ISSN: 1540-1413
CID: 5726272

A Blueprint for a Comprehensive, Multidisciplinary Pancreatic Cancer Screening Program

Fasullo, Matthew; Simeone, Diane; Everett, Jessica; Agarunov, Emil; Khanna, Lauren; Gonda, Tamas
PMID: 37782292
ISSN: 1572-0241
CID: 5691062