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Development and external validation of a dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care units using machine learning

Hu, Yuxuan; Lui, Albert; Goldstein, Mark; Sudarshan, Mukund; Tinsay, Andrea; Tsui, Cindy; Maidman, Samuel D; Medamana, John; Jethani, Neil; Puli, Aahlad; Nguy, Vuthy; Aphinyanaphongs, Yindalon; Kiefer, Nicholas; Smilowitz, Nathaniel R; Horowitz, James; Ahuja, Tania; Fishman, Glenn I; Hochman, Judith; Katz, Stuart; Bernard, Samuel; Ranganath, Rajesh
BACKGROUND:Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US with the morbidity and mortality being highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock allows prompt implementation of treatment measures. Our objective is to develop a new dynamic risk score, called CShock, to improve early detection of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS:We developed and externally validated a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. We prepared a cardiac ICU dataset using MIMIC-III database by annotating with physician adjudicated outcomes. This dataset that consisted of 1500 patients with 204 having cardiogenic/mixed shock was then used to train CShock. The features used to train the model for CShock included patient demographics, cardiac ICU admission diagnoses, routinely measured laboratory values and vital signs, and relevant features manually extracted from echocardiogram and left heart catheterization reports. We externally validated the risk model on the New York University (NYU) Langone Health cardiac ICU database that was also annotated with physician adjudicated outcomes. The external validation cohort consisted of 131 patients with 25 patients experiencing cardiogenic/mixed shock. RESULTS:CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.821 (95% CI 0.792-0.850). CShock was externally validated in the more contemporary NYU cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI 0.717-0.884), demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs. Having an elevated heart rate is most predictive of cardiogenic shock development based on Shapley values. The other top ten predictors are having an admission diagnosis of myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, having an admission diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure, Braden Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, Blood urea nitrogen, Systolic blood pressure, Serum chloride, Serum sodium, and Arterial blood pH. CONCLUSIONS:The novel CShock score has the potential to provide automated detection and early warning for cardiogenic shock and improve the outcomes for the millions of patients who suffer from myocardial infarction and heart failure.
PMID: 38518758
ISSN: 2048-8734
CID: 5640892

Physiology-Guided Resuscitation: Monitoring and Augmenting Perfusion during Cardiopulmonary Arrest

Bernard, Samuel; Pashun, Raymond A; Varma, Bhavya; Yuriditsky, Eugene
Given the high morbidity and mortality associated with cardiopulmonary arrest, there have been multiple trials aimed at better monitoring and augmenting coronary, cerebral, and systemic perfusion. This article aims to elucidate these interventions, first by detailing the physiology of cardiopulmonary resuscitation and the available tools for managing cardiopulmonary arrest, followed by an in-depth examination of the newest advances in the monitoring and delivery of advanced cardiac life support.
PMCID:11205151
PMID: 38930056
ISSN: 2077-0383
CID: 5733252

Echocardiography in the Recognition and Management of Mechanical Complications of Acute Myocardial Infarction

Zhang, Robert S; Ro, Richard; Bamira, Daniel; Vainrib, Alan; Zhang, Lily; Nayar, Ambika C; Saric, Muhamed; Bernard, Samuel
PURPOSE OF REVIEW/OBJECTIVE:Although rare, the development of mechanical complications following an acute myocardial infarction is associated with a high morbidity and mortality. Here, we review the clinical features, diagnostic strategy, and treatment options for each of the mechanical complications, with a focus on the role of echocardiography. RECENT FINDINGS/RESULTS:The growth of percutaneous structural interventions worldwide has given rise to new non-surgical options for management of mechanical complications. As such, select patients may benefit from a novel use of these established treatment methods. A thorough understanding of the two-dimensional, three-dimensional, color Doppler, and spectral Doppler findings for each mechanical complication is essential in recognizing major causes of hemodynamic decompensation after an acute myocardial infarction. Thereafter, echocardiography can aid in the selection and maintenance of mechanical circulatory support and potentially facilitate the use of a percutaneous intervention.
PMID: 38526749
ISSN: 1534-3170
CID: 5644472

Outcomes of Patients With Cancer With Myocardial Infarction-Associated Cardiogenic Shock Managed With Mechanical Circulatory Support

Leiva, Orly; Cheng, Richard K; Pauwaa, Sunil; Katz, Jason N; Alvarez-Cardona, Jose; Bernard, Samuel; Alviar, Carlos; Yang, Eric H
BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the leading cause of death among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and is managed with temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS) in advanced cases. Patients with cancer are at high risk of AMI and CS. However, outcomes of patients with cancer and AMI-CS managed with tMCS have not been rigorously studied. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Adult patients with AMI-CS managed with tMCS from 2006 to 2018 with and without cancer were identified using the National Inpatient Sample. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed for variables associated with cancer. Primary outcome was in-hospital death, and secondary outcomes were major bleeding and thrombotic complications. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:< .001). After PSM, there was no difference in in-hospital death (odds ratio [OR], 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88-1.13) or thrombotic complications (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.91-1.34) between patients with and without cancer. Patients with cancer had a higher risk of major bleeding (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.15-1.46). CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Among patients with AMI-CS managed with tMCS, cancer is becoming increasingly frequent and associated with increased risk of major bleeding, although there was no difference in in-hospital death. Further studies are needed to further characterize outcomes, and inclusion of patients with cancer in trials of tMCS is needed.
PMCID:11307771
PMID: 39131775
ISSN: 2772-9303
CID: 5726622

Intracardiac Versus Transesophageal Echocardiography Guided Percutaneous Debulking of Tricuspid Endocarditis

Zhang, Robert S; Bailey, Eric; Maqsood, Muhammad H; Harari, Rafael; Bernard, Samuel; Xia, Yuhe; Keller, Norma; Alviar, Carlos L; Bangalore, Sripal
PMID: 38401653
ISSN: 1879-1913
CID: 5634712

Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: Life-saving or Resource Wasting?

Elliott, Andrea M; van Diepen, Sean; Hollenberg, Steven M; Bernard, Samuel
The morbidity and mortality for patients having a cardiac arrest is substantial. Even if optimally performed, conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation is an inadequate substitute for native cardiac output and results in a 'low-flow' perfusion state. Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation during cardiac arrest, also known as extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR), has been proposed as an alternative to restore systemic perfusion. However, conflicting results regarding its efficacy compared to routine advanced cardiac life support have left its role in clinical practice uncertain. In this article, the merits and limitations of the existing data for eCPR are reviewed in a 'point- counterpoint' style debate, followed by potential considerations for future trials.
PMCID:11526500
PMID: 39494402
ISSN: 1758-390x
CID: 5803482

Utility of Left and Right Ventricular Strain in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Prospective Multicenter Registry

Namasivayam, Mayooran; Bertrand, Philippe B; Bernard, Samuel; Churchill, Timothy W; Khurshid, Shaan; Marcus, Frank I; Mestroni, Luisa; Saffitz, Jeffrey E; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Zareba, Wojciech; Picard, Michael H; Sanborn, Danita Yoerger; ,
BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Imaging evaluation of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) remains challenging. Myocardial strain assessment by echocardiography is an increasingly utilized technique for detecting subclinical left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic utility of LV and RV strain in ARVC. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Patients with suspected ARVC (n = 109) from a multicenter registry were clinically phenotyped using the 2010 ARVC Revised Task Force Criteria and underwent baseline strain echocardiography. Diagnostic performance of LV and RV strain was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis against the 2010 ARVC Revised Task Force Criteria, and the prognostic value was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:=0.04). CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:In a prospective, multicenter registry of ARVC, RV strain assessment added diagnostic value to current echocardiographic criteria by identifying patients who are missed by current echocardiographic criteria yet still fulfill the diagnosis of ARVC. LV strain, by contrast, did not add incremental diagnostic value but was prognostic for identification of high-risk patients.
PMID: 38113321
ISSN: 1942-0080
CID: 5612352

Apical Aneurysms and Mid-Left Ventricular Obstruction in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Sherrid, Mark V; Bernard, Samuel; Tripathi, Nidhi; Patel, Yash; Modi, Vivek; Axel, Leon; Talebi, Soheila; Ghoshhajra, Brian B; Sanborn, Danita Y; Saric, Muhamed; Adlestein, Elizabeth; Alvarez, Isabel Castro; Xia, Yuhe; Swistel, Daniel G; Massera, Daniele; Fifer, Michael A; Kim, Bette
BACKGROUND:Apical left ventricular (LV) aneurysms in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) are associated with adverse outcomes. The reported frequency of mid-LV obstruction has varied from 36% to 90%. OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:The authors sought to ascertain the frequency of mid-LV obstruction in HCM apical aneurysms. METHODS:The authors analyzed echocardiographic and cardiac magnetic resonance examinations of patients with aneurysms from 3 dedicated programs and compared them with 63 normal controls and 47 controls with apical-mid HCM who did not have aneurysms (22 with increased LV systolic velocities). RESULTS:]; P = 0.004). Complete emptying occurs circumferentially around central PMs that contribute to obstruction. Late gadolinium enhancement was always brightest and the most transmural apical of, or at the level of, complete emptying. CONCLUSIONS:The great majority (95%) of patients in the continuum of apical aneurysms have associated mid-LV obstruction. Further research to investigate obstruction as a contributing cause to apical aneurysms is warranted.
PMID: 36681586
ISSN: 1876-7591
CID: 5419392

Sex Differences in Extensive Mitral Annular Calcification With Associated Mitral Valve Dysfunction

Churchill, Timothy W; Yucel, Evin; Bernard, Samuel; Namasivayam, Mayooran; Nagata, Yasufumi; Lau, Emily S; Deferm, Sebastien; He, Wei; Danik, Jacqueline S; Sanborn, Danita Y; Picard, Michael H; Levine, Robert A; Hung, Judy; Bertrand, Philippe B
Mitral annular calcification (MAC)-related mitral valve (MV) dysfunction is an increasingly recognized entity, which confers a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Although more common among women, there is a paucity of data regarding how the phenotype of MAC and the associated adverse clinical implications may differ between women and men. A total of 3,524 patients with extensive MAC and significant MAC-related MV dysfunction (i.e., transmitral gradient ≥3 mm Hg) were retrospectively analyzed from a large institutional database, with the goal of defining gender differences in clinical and echocardiographic characteristics and the prognostic importance of MAC-related MV dysfunction. We stratified patients into low- (3 to 5 mm Hg), moderate- (5 to 10 mm Hg), and high- (≥10 mm Hg) gradient groups and analyzed the gender differences in phenotype and outcome. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, assessed using adjusted Cox regression models. Women represented the majority (67%) of subjects, were older (79.3 ± 10.4 vs 75.5 ± 10.9 years, p <0.001) and had a lower burden of cardiovascular co-morbidities than men. Women had higher transmitral gradients (5.7 ± 2.7 vs 5.3 ± 2.6 mm Hg, p <0.001), more concentric hypertrophy (49% vs 33%), and more mitral regurgitation. The median survival was 3.4 years (95% confidence interval 3.0 to 3.6) among women and 3.0 years (95% confidence interval 2.6 to 4.5) among men. The adjusted survival was worse among men, and the prognostic impact of the transmitral gradient did not differ overall by gender. In conclusion, we describe important gender differences among patients with MAC-related MV dysfunction and show worse adjusted survival among men; although, the adverse prognostic impact of the transmitral gradient was similar between men and women.
PMID: 36881941
ISSN: 1879-1913
CID: 5432712

Transesophageal Echocardiographic Screening for Structural Heart Interventions

Ro, Richard; Bamira, Daniel; Bernard, Samuel; Vainrib, Alan; Ibrahim, Homam; Staniloae, Cezar; Williams, Mathew R; Saric, Muhamed
PURPOSE OF REVIEW/OBJECTIVE:Percutaneous structural interventions have provided patients with an effective therapeutic option, and its growth has been aided by echocardiography. We describe the vital role that transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) plays in screening patients prior to their procedure. RECENT FINDINGS/RESULTS:A multimodality imaging approach is employed by the valve team, but TEE plays a unique role in diagnosis and planning. Utilization of all TEE views and features such as biplane, 3D imaging, and multiplanar reconstruction ensures accurate assessment of the structural lesion of interest. The role of TEE remains essential in the planning of structural interventions, and these studies should be performed in a systematic and comprehensive manner.
PMID: 36680732
ISSN: 1534-3170
CID: 5405192