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Decision Modeling to Guide Management of Pancreatic IPMNs: Immediate Surgery or Initial Surveillance?

Sacks, Greg D; Levine, Jonah; Habib, Joseph R; Hunter, Madeleine; Javed, Ammar A; Marchegiani, Giovanni; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Braithwaite, R Scott
BACKGROUND:Most branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are indolent, but distinguishing those harboring high-grade dysplasia or invasive cancer remains difficult. This analysis focuses not on incidental small BD-IPMNs but on the subset whose cyst characteristics bring surgery into the decision-making discussion. Surgery prevents malignant progression but carries morbidity; surveillance avoids overtreatment but risks delayed cancer detection. Current guidelines rely on fixed thresholds that may not reflect individual variation. Our study compared immediate surgery and initial surveillance in patients with BD-IPMNs, using a decision-analytic model that incorporates patient-specific risk factors. METHODS:A Markov decision model compared immediate surgery with initial surveillance, incorporating age, comorbidities, and cyst location. Health states reflected progression from low-grade to high-grade dysplasia and invasive cancer, postoperative complications, recurrence, and quality-of-life decrements. Transition probabilities were derived from published studies and American College of Surgeons (ACS)-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. The primary outcome was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS:For a 60-year-old patient with mild comorbidities and a pancreatic head BD-IPMN, immediate surgery provided 16.8 QALYs versus 16.3 with surveillance (incremental gain, 0.5 QALYs). Lifetime cancer probability was lower with surgery (24.5% vs 33.5%), as was cancer-related mortality (9.3% vs 20.3%), though surgery resulted in more resections for low-grade dysplasia (55.0% vs 15.3%). Age, baseline cancer probability, and perioperative mortality were the strongest determinants of the preferred strategy. CONCLUSIONS:Among patients with BD-IPMNs being considered for surgery, immediate resection offers a modest benefit for younger, healthier individuals, whereas surveillance remains appropriate for older or comorbid patients. These findings support individualized, risk-based management rather than universal application of guideline thresholds.
PMID: 42012736
ISSN: 1534-4681
CID: 6032502

ASO Visual Abstract: Evaluating the Kyoto Guidelines' Worrisome Features and High-Risk Stigmata to Predict High Grade Dysplasia and Invasive Cancer in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

Levine, Jonah M; Habib, Joseph R; Rompen, Ingmar F; Hewitt, D Brock; Kaplan, Brian; Morgan, Katherine A; Kluger, Michael D; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Javed, Ammar A; Sacks, Greg D
PMID: 41678048
ISSN: 1534-4681
CID: 6002412

Evaluating the Kyoto Guidelines' Worrisome Features and High-Risk Stigmata to Predict High-Grade Dysplasia and Invasive Cancer in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

Levine, Jonah M; Habib, Joseph R; Rompen, Ingmar F; Hewitt, D Brock; Kaplan, Brian; Morgan, Katherine A; Kluger, Michael D; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Javed, Ammar A; Sacks, Greg D
BACKGROUND:The 2024 Kyoto guidelines for the management of intraductal mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) build on previous guidelines that consider worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS) to recommend surveillance or resection. These new guidelines have not yet been validated. METHODS:Patients undergoing pancreatectomy for an IPMN at an academic medical center between 2012 and 2023 were included. IPMNs were categorized as low-grade dysplasia (LGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), or invasive carcinoma (IC). Preoperative imaging was used to determine HRS and WF in accordance with the 2024 Kyoto guidelines. We compared IPMNs with LGD to those with HGD or IC using univariate analyses and evaluated logistic regression models with c-statistics. RESULTS:Of 211 patients, 84 (40%) had LGD, 49 (23%) had HGD, and 78 (37%) had IC. Among HRS, obstructive jaundice (p = 0.004), pancreatic duct ≥ 10 mm (p < 0.001), and suspicious or positive cytology (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with HGD/IC. An increasing number of HRS were associated with higher rates of HGD/IC. Among WFs, an abrupt change in the caliber of pancreatic duct with distal pancreatic atrophy (p = 0.001) and cystic growth ≥ 2.5 mm/year (p = 0.033) were significantly associated with higher rates of HGD/IC. Increasing numbers of WFs were also associated with higher rates of HGD/IC. The 2024 Kyoto model showed improved discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.849) compared with the 2017 Fukuoka model (AUC=0.780, p = 0.06). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:The risk of HGD/IC in IPMNs increased in a stepwise fashion as the number of WFs increased. The 2024 guidelines represent an advancement over the 2017 guidelines, notably with the inclusion of suspicious cytology as an HRS.
PMID: 41392225
ISSN: 1534-4681
CID: 5978982

Clinical and molecular features of resected early onset pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: insights from the NCDB and cBioPortal

Mughal, Nabiha A; Mahmud, Omar; Rompen, Ingmar F; Riachi, Mansour E; Kaplan, Brian D; Hewitt, Daniel B; Sacks, Greg D; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Javed, Ammar A
BACKGROUND:Pancreatic cancer with early onset is increasing but comparisons with average onset cases have yielded mixed results (EOPC versus AOPC; age <50 versus ≥50). We compared clinicopathologic features, prognosis, and molecular traits of resected EOPC versus AOPC. METHODS:We retrospectively included patients with PDAC resected between 2010 and 2017 from The National Cancer Database (NCDB). Clinicopathologic data were compared across EOPC versus AOPC. Kaplan-Meier curves and cox-regression were used to perform survival analysis. Molecular features were compared using data from the cBioPortal. RESULTS:24,078 patients with resected PDAC were included, of whom 1698 (7.1 %) had EOPC. Poor prognostic factors, including high grade, advanced T-stage, and lymphovascular invasion, were less prevalent in EOPC (All p < 0.05). Patients with EOPC more frequently received neoadjuvant (28 % vs. 22 %; p < 0.001) and adjuvant chemotherapy (68 % vs. 58 %; p < 0.001) and experienced improved OS (median OS 29.5 vs 25.9 months, p = 0.023; 5-year OS: 26.9 % vs 20.8 %). No differences in the presence of key driver mutations were observed between the two groups but some distinct oncogenic mutations were observed in EOPC. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:EOPC and AOPC are clinically similar but some cases of EOPC may harbor divergent molecular changes. These patients may have only marginally improved survival.
PMID: 41483963
ISSN: 1477-2574
CID: 6001392

Spatial transcriptomics defines the molecular progression, invasion and immune landscape of IPMN and IPMN-derived pancreatic cancer

Cui, Ming; Mo, Shengwei; Bai, Jialu; Javed, Ammar A; Habib, Joseph R; Yang, Sen; Chen, Tianqi; Xiao, Ruiling; Diao, Wenfei; Jiang, Decheng; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Chang, Xiaoyan; Hu, Ya; Zhao, Yupei
BACKGROUND:Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer with highly variable malignant potential. Current understanding of their biology remains incomplete, limiting accurate risk stratification and targeted interventions. OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to characterise the molecular and immune features of IPMN across different dysplasia grades and histological subtypes, with a focus on IPMN-associated invasive carcinoma (IPMN-IC). DESIGN/METHODS:Spatial whole-transcriptome profiling using Digital Spatial Profiling was conducted on 12 patients, capturing the full histological and dysplastic spectrum of IPMN and conventional pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. A total of 117 epithelial, immune and stromal areas of interest were analysed. An expanded cohort of 43 patients with IPMN was used to validate selected key markers. RESULTS:Transcriptomic analysis unveiled stage-specific molecular alterations and identified two distinct subsets of high-grade (HG) IPMN lesions: one resembling indolent lesions (HG) and the other IC (HG+). Key markers associated with divergent biological behaviours were identified, including MUC5AC and TFF1 in indolent lesions, and Claudin-1 in lesions with invasive potential. Immune profiling revealed a trajectory from activation to suppression during IPMN progression. Several characteristic immune checkpoint molecules, including CEACAM1 and CD44, were identified in IPMN-IC. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:This study provides a spatially resolved molecular map of IPMN progression, delineating key transcriptomic and immune signatures. These findings advance the understanding of IPMN biology and highlight potential biomarkers for risk stratification and therapeutic strategies.
PMID: 41381181
ISSN: 1468-3288
CID: 5977902

Incidental Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer and Association with Improved Patient Outcomes: Assessing the Potential Clinical Utility of Liquid Biopsy Based Screening Tests

Javed, Ammar A; Habib, Joseph R; Fishman, Elliot K; Cameron, John L; Hruban, Ralph H; Wolfgang, Christopher L; He, Jin
BACKGROUND:Poor outcomes in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are associated with delayed diagnosis and early systemic spread of disease. Development of liquid biopsies for screening could help detect low-stage disease in asymptomatic patients. We aimed to evaluate the association between incidental diagnosis on outcomes and assess the potential role of liquid biopsies. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:An institutional registry was used to identify patients undergoing resection for PDAC at between 2010 and 2015. Patients were stratified based on presenting symptoms, and outcomes were analyzed. Preoperatively collected plasma that was available on these patients was analyzed using a multianalyte screening test based on ctDNA and proteins. RESULTS:Seventy-nine (9.6%) of 823 patients were diagnosed incidentally (asymptomatic at diagnosis). Incidental diagnosis was associated with type of surgery, and absence of nodal disease and lymphovascular invasion (all P<0.05). On multivariable analysis incidental diagnosis (HR, 0.561; 95%CI, 0.406-0.775; P<0.001) was independently associated with improved overall survival (OS), while tumor size ≥4cm (HR, 1.617; 95%CI, 1.201-2.176; P=0.002), nodal disease (HR, 1.259; 95%CI, 1.018-1.558; P=0.034), perineural invasion (HR,1.338; 95%CI, 1.030-1.739; P=0.029), and positive margins (HR,1.302; 95%CI, 1.058-1.602; P=0.013) were associated with poorer OS. Asymptomatic patients had a significantly longer OS (median-OS: 38 vs. 19 months (P<0.001). The rate of multianalyte test positivity was 75% (6/8) in asymptomatic patients compared to 73% (59/81) in symptomatic patients (P=0.895). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Approximately 10% of patients with PDAC are diagnosed incidentally. In resected PDAC, incidental diagnosis is independently associated with improved OS. Multianalyte screening tests perform equally well in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. These findings further reinforce the need for development of screening tools that can increase the rate of diagnosis at an asymptomatic stage and improve survival.
PMID: 41363792
ISSN: 1879-1190
CID: 5977212

The OligoPanc project: an interdisciplinary expert consensus statement on oligometastatic pancreatic cancer

Leonhardt, Carl-Stephan; Adham, Mustapha; Bazarbashi, Shouki; Ben-Aharon, Irit; Beets-Tan, Regina G H; Boggi, Ugo; Brunner, Thomas B; Cellini, Francesco; Chiti, Arturo; Daamen, Lois; De Bari, Berardino; De Dosso, Sara; Ducreux, Michel; Eng, Cathy; Falconi, Massimo; Ferrone, Cristina R; Frigerio, Isabella; Garajova, Ingrid; Gerum, Sabine; Ghadimi, Michael; Gruenberger, Thomas; Hammel, Pascal; Haustermans, Karin; Hawkins, Maria; He, Jin; Heerkens, Hanne D; Huguet, Florence; Intven, Martijn P W; Klaiber, Ulla; Kroese, Tiuri E; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Lordick, Florian; Ludmir, Ethan B; Macarulla, Teresa; Matzinger, Oscar; Morganti, Alessio G; Mukherjee, Somnath; O'Reilly, Eileen M; Park, Joon Oh; Papamichael, Demetris; Pfeiffer, Per; Ramia, José M; Roeder, Falk; Ruiz-García, Erika; Satoi, Sohei; Scorsetti, Marta; Schneider, Martin; Seufferlein, Thomas; Serrablo, Alejandro; Shrikhande, Shailesh V; Smyth, Elizabeth C; Svrcek, Magali; Takaori, Kyoichi; Tempero, Margaret A; Tissera, Natalia S; Tie, Jeanne; Torres, Orlando J M; Turpin, Anthony; Van Cutsem, Eric; Versteijne, Eva; Vivaldi, Caterina; Wainberg, Zev A; Weichselbaum, Ralph R; Weitz, Juergen; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Prager, Gerald W; Strobel, Oliver
Currently, no consensus exists regarding the definition of oligometastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, its necessary diagnostic measures, and potential treatment approaches. To address these knowledge gaps, the OligoPanc project brought together an interdisciplinary group of experts to establish consensus using a modified Delphi process and clinical vignettes. Participants agreed that the number of metastatic lesions and the number of affected organs are key elements in defining oligometastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Specifically, up to three lesions in a single organ, either the liver or the lung, define oligometastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and could be either synchronous or metachronous. Necessary diagnostics include a triple-phase contrast-enhanced CT scan of the chest and abdomen and MRI of the liver with a hepatocyte-specific contrast agent. In unclear cases, [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose-PET CT or MRI can be considered. A multidisciplinary tumour board is essential. Patient-intrinsic factors, including age, do not define oligometastatic disease but should be considered for any treatment decision. Systemic treatment before any local consolidative treatment, including surgery, stereotactic ablative radiotherapy, or other locally ablative techniques, is mandatory. The proposed definition should be incorporated into future trials to improve comparability and enable validation.
PMID: 41785904
ISSN: 1474-5488
CID: 6009122

Staging laparoscopy to detect occult metastases in localized pancreatic cancer: global survey among nine international societies

Stoop, Thomas F; Lutchman, Kishan R D; Theijse, Rutger T; Larsson, Patrik; Oba, Atsushi; Groot Koerkamp, Bas; van Eijck, Casper H J; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Rangelova, Elena; Marchegiani, Giovanni; Endo, Itaru; Jang, Jin-Young; Primrose, John M; Ramia, Jose M; Katz, Matthew H G; Abu Hilal, Mohammed; Ghorbani, Poya; Shrikhande, Shailesh V; Hackert, Thilo; Nealon, William H; Truty, Mark J; Del Chiaro, Marco; Besselink, Marc G; ,; ,; ,; ,; ,; ,; ,
BACKGROUND:Staging laparoscopy (SL) is performed to detect occult metastases in patients with localized pancreatic cancer. However, current guideline recommendations vary widely on routinely performing SL. This global survey investigated use and indications of SL. METHODS:An online survey was sent to members of nine international societies and working groups. Information was obtained about SL use, indications SL and adjunct diagnostic modalities across four clinical scenarios. RESULTS:Among 617 responding surgeons (76 countries, six continents), 82% used SL which varied between regions (Americas 90%, Asia 85%, Oceania 81%, Europe 76%, Africa 59%; P < 0.050). Most perform SL during the same session as the scheduled laparotomy (63-79%). A SL was mainly performed at the time of upfront surgery (71%), after (60%) or before (37%) neoadjuvant/induction therapy, and before radiotherapy (31%). SL was mainly performed in selected patients, either based on indeterminate/suspicious lesions on cross-sectional imaging (78-87%), resectability status (54-64%), and/or elevated CA19-9 level (60-69%). Most common used adjuncts were cytological lavage (37-55%) and intra-abdominal liver ultrasonography (36-50%). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Despite considerable global variability, SL is widely used to detect occult metastases in pancreatic cancer, mainly in high-risk patients and often during the scheduled laparotomy. The observed variability highlights the need for more evidence leading to stronger guideline recommendations.
PMID: 41421934
ISSN: 1477-2574
CID: 5979892

The International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) Definition and Classification of Postpancreatectomy Mortality

Giuliani, Tommaso; Siriwardena, Ajith K; Vollmer, Charles M; Hilal, Mohammed Abu; Adham, Mustapha; Barreto, Savio George; Boggi, Ugo; Castillo, Carlos Fernández-Del; Del Chiaro, Marco; Falconi, Massimo; Friess, Helmut; Frigerio, Isabella; Fusai, Giuseppe Kito; Gianotti, Luca; Goh, Brian K P; Halloran, Christopher M; Hartwig, Werner; He, Jin; Hogg, Melissa E; Jiang, Kuirong; Katz, Matthew H G; Kleeff, Jörg; Labori, Knut Jørgen; Lillemoe, Keith D; Pandanaboyana, Sanjay; Rangelova, Elena; Schwarz, Lilian; Serrablo, Alejandro; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Zerbi, Alessandro; Dervenis, Christos; Neoptolemos, John P; Büchler, Markus W; Besselink, Marc G; Ferrone, Cristina R; Hackert, Thilo; Salvia, Roberto; Shrikhande, Shailesh V; Strobel, Oliver; Werner, Jens; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Marchegiani, Giovanni; ,
OBJECTIVE:The International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) aimed to uniform the definition and classification of mortality following pancreatic resections, to guide strategies for reducing preventable deaths and standardize reporting. BACKGROUND:Reported rates of mortality after pancreatic surgery vary widely depending on patient comorbidities, case mix, and institutional expertise and resources. Conventional reporting lacks granularity and fails to capture the mechanisms leading to death. A standardized classification rooted in causal analysis may provide a more meaningful framework to appraise outcomes and design targeted interventions. METHODS:A systematic review of the literature, focusing on mortality rates, causes of death, and existing classification systems after pancreatectomy was conducted. A consensus definition and tripartite classification were developed through iterative discussions, revisions, and final approval by the ISGPS board members. RESULTS:Postpancreatectomy mortality (PPM) was defined as death occurring within 90 days of any pancreatic resection, directly or indirectly attributable to a surgical complication and retrospectively linked to it through root-cause analysis. Three categories were established: PPM 1, vascular/technical complexity-related mortality (15-30%); PPM 2, pancreatectomy-specific complication-related deaths, mainly due to postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and secondary systemic deterioration (45-65%); and PPM 3, cardiopulmonary and cerebrovascular deaths (10-25%). Each category reflects distinct mechanisms, timing of onset, intervention windows, and opportunities for rescue. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:The proposed ISGPS classification of mortality enables the development of targeted strategies to reduce potentially preventable deaths and provides a more robust framework for the appraisal and benchmarking of surgical outcomes. Prospective validation is warranted to standardize this newly defined quality metric, ensuring its consistent use in future reporting and ultimately enhancing surgical quality and patient safety on a global scale.
PMID: 41572457
ISSN: 1528-1140
CID: 5988722

Quantifying Patient Risk Threshold in Managing Pancreatic Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

Kaslow, Sarah R; Sharma, Acacia R; Hewitt, D Brock; Bridges, John F P; Javed, Ammar A; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Braithwaite, Scott; Sacks, Greg D
OBJECTIVE:We aimed to better understand patients' treatment preferences and quantify the level of cancer risk at which treatment preferences change (risk threshold) to inform better counseling of patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA/BACKGROUND:The complexity of IPMN management provides an opportunity to align treatment with individual preference. METHODS:We surveyed a sample of healthy volunteers simulating a common scenario: undergoing an imaging study that incidentally identifies an IPMN. In the scenario, the estimated risk of cancer in the IPMN was 5%. Patients were asked their treatment preference (surgery or surveillance), to quantify the level of cancer risk in the IPMN at which their treatment preference would change (i.e. risk threshold), and their level of cancer anxiety as measured on a 5-point Likert scale. We examined associations between participant characteristics, treatment preferences, and risk threshold using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS:The median risk threshold among the 520 participants was 25% (IQR 2.3-50%). The risk threshold had a bimodal distribution: 40% of participants had a risk threshold between 0-10% and 47% had a risk threshold above 30%. When informed that the risk of cancer was 5%, 62% of participants (n=323) preferred surveillance, and the remaining 38% (n=197) preferred surgery. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants who expressed "worry" or "extreme worry" about the malignancy risk of IPMN had significantly lower risk thresholds than participants who were "not at all worried" (Coefficient -12, 95%CI -21 to -2, P=0.015 and Coefficient -18, 95%CI -29 to -8, P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Participants varied in treatment preference and risk threshold of incidentally identified IPMNs. Given the uncertainty in estimating the true malignant potential of IPMNs, a better understanding of a patient's risk threshold, as influenced by patient concern about malignancy, will help inform the shared decision-making process.
PMID: 38810270
ISSN: 1528-1140
CID: 5663642