Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Whether types of hospitals with high readmission rates also have high overall postdischarge acute care utilization (including emergency department and observation care) is unknown. DESIGN/METHODS:Cross-sectional analysis. SUBJECTS/METHODS:Nonfederal United States acute care hospitals. MEASURES/METHODS:Using methodology established by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, we calculated each hospital's "excess days in acute care" for fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries aged over 65 years discharged after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure (HF), or pneumonia, representing the mean difference between predicted and expected total days of acute care utilization in the 30 days following hospital discharge, per 100 discharges. We assessed the multivariable association of 8 hospital characteristics with excess days in acute care and the proportion of hospitals with each characteristic that were statistical outliers (95% credible interval estimate does not include 0). RESULTS:We included 2184 hospitals for acute myocardial infarction [228 (10.4%) better than expected, 549 (25.1%) worse than expected], 3720 hospitals for HF [484 (13.0%) better and 840 (22.6%) worse], and 4195 hospitals for pneumonia [673 (16.0%) better, 1005 (24.0%) worse]. Results for all conditions were similar. Worse than expected outliers for pneumonia included: 18.8% of safety net hospitals versus 26.1% of nonsafety net hospitals; 16.7% of public hospitals versus 33.1% of for-profit hospitals; 19.5% of nonteaching hospitals versus 52.2% of major teaching hospitals; 7.9% of rural hospitals versus 42.1% of large urban hospitals; 5.9% of hospitals with 24-<50 beds versus 58% of hospitals with >500 beds; and 29.0% of hospitals with nurse-to-bed ratios >1.0-1.5 versus 21.7% of hospitals with ratios >2.0. CONCLUSIONS:Including emergency department and observation stays in measures of postdischarge utilization produces similar results as measuring only readmissions in that major teaching, urban and for-profit hospitals still perform disproportionately poorly versus nonteaching or public hospitals. However, it enables identification of more outliers and a more granular assessment of the association of hospital factors and outcomes.

PURPOSE: To better understand the decision making behind the ordering of CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) in the emergency department. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with our institution's emergency medicine (EM) providers and radiologists who read CTPAs performed in the emergency department. We employed the Theoretical Domains Framework-a formal, structured approach used to better understand the motivations and beliefs of physicians surrounding a complex medical decision making-to categorize the themes that arose from our interviews. RESULTS: EM providers were identified as the main drivers of CTPA ordering. Both EM and radiologist groups perceived the radiologist's role as more limited. Experience- and gestalt-based heuristics were the most important factors driving this decision and more important, in many cases, than established algorithms for CTPA ordering. There were contrasting views on the value of d-dimer in the suspected PE workup, with EM providers finding this test less useful than radiologists. EM provider and radiologist suggestions for improving the appropriateness of CTPA ordering consisted of making this process more arduous and incorporating d-dimer tests and prediction rules into a decision support tool. CONCLUSION: EM providers were the main drivers of CTPA ordering, and there was a marginalized role for the radiologist. Experience- and gestalt-based heuristics were the main influencers of CTPA ordering. Our findings suggest that a more nuanced intervention than simply including a d-dimer and a prediction score in each preimaging workup may be necessary to curb overordering of CTPA in patients suspected of PE.

BACKGROUND: Interventions to reduce readmissions following acute heart failure hospitalization require early identification of patients. The purpose of this study was to develop and test accuracies of various approaches to identify patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) using data derived from the electronic health record. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 37,229 hospitalizations of adult patients at a single hospital in 2013-2015. We developed four algorithms to identify hospitalization with a principal discharge diagnosis of ADHF: 1) presence of one of three clinical characteristics; 2) logistic regression of 31 structured data elements; 3) machine learning with unstructured data; 4) machine learning with both structured and unstructured data. In data validation, Algorithm 1 had a sensitivity of 0.98 and positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.14 for ADHF. Algorithm 2 had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.96, while both machine learning algorithms had AUCs of 0.99. Based on a brief survey of three providers who perform chart review for ADHF, we estimated providers spent 8.6 minutes per chart review; using this this parameter, we estimated providers would spend 61.4, 57.3, 28.7, and 25.3 minutes on secondary chart review for each case of ADHF if initial screening was done with algorithms 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. CONCLUSION: Machine learning algorithms with unstructured notes had best performance for identification of ADHF and can improve provider efficiency for delivery of quality improvement interventions.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalized medical patients undergoing transition of care by house staff teams at the end of a ward rotation are associated with an increased risk of mortality, yet best practices surrounding this transition are lacking. AIM: To assess the impact of a warm handoff protocol for end-of-rotation care transitions. SETTING: A large, university-based internal medicine residency using three different training sites. PARTICIPANTS: PGY-2 and PGY-3 internal medicine residents. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION: Implementation of a warm handoff protocol whereby the incoming and outgoing residents meet at the hospital to sign out in-person and jointly round at the bedside on sicker patients using a checklist. PROGRAM EVALUATION: An eight-question survey completed by 60 of 99 eligible residents demonstrated that 85% of residents perceived warm handoffs to be safer for patients (p < 0.001), while 98% felt warm handoffs improved their knowledge and comfort level of patients on day 1 of an inpatient rotation (p < 0.001) as compared to prior handoff techniques. Finally, 88% felt warm handoffs were worthwhile despite requiring additional time (p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: A warm handoff protocol represents a novel strategy to potentially mitigate the known risks associated with end-of-rotation care transitions. Additional studies analyzing patient outcomes will be needed to assess the impact of this strategy.

Background: Heart failure is among the most common reasons for admission to hospital and is associated with high rates of readmission. Studies have shown that the frequency of heart failure hospitalisation in temperate climates increases in winter months. While such findings suggest that the risk of hospitalisation is higher in winter as compared to summer months, there has been little evaluation of whether there is seasonal variation in the readmission risk of patients who are hospitalised for heart failure. Purpose: To examine seasonal variations in: 1) readmission risk for patients hospitalised with heart failure; and 2) frequency of heart failure hospitalisation for patients at different risk of readmission. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of United States Medicare beneficiaries age >=65 who were hospitalised for heart failure between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2015. We used a predictive model for 30-day unplanned hospital readmission to assign each hospitalisation a predicted risk of readmission; this model adds demographic and prior utilization data to the hospital-wide readmission model used by the Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Each hospitalisation was categorized as lowest 20%, middle 60%, and highest 20% of predicted readmission risk. We calculated rate of hospitalisations per calendar month, predicted readmission risk, and monthly rate of hospitalisations for each risk stratum in the study period; monthly hospitalisations were standardized to 30 days. When comparing risk strata, we divided the totals for the middle 60% stratum by three. Results: Among 2,661,837 heart failure hospitalisations, we observed the highest rates of hospitalisation in January through March (range 37,185-37,949 per month) and the lowest rates in July through September (range 29,901-30,603 per month). Conversely, predicted readmission rates were lowest in January and highest in August, with rates of 23.1% and 24.0%, respectively. The number of hospitalisations increased in winter months for patients in all three risk strata, with greatest variation in seasonal differences observed for patients in the lowest 20% of predicted risk (Figure). For example, hospitalisation rates for highest risk patients were 7058 per 30 days in January versus 6473 per 30 days in August; for lowest risk patients, these values were 7852 versus 5595, respectively. (Figure Presented) Conclusion: Readmission risk decreased in winter versus summer months for patients hospitalised for heart failure. Much of the seasonal variation in heart failure hospitalisations appears to be due to a large excess of hospitalisations of these low risk patients in winter months. Our results suggest that preventative measures, such as vaccinations or dietary education, that target lower risk patients in colder months may reduce overall utilisation

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic interchange of a same class medication for an outpatient medication is a widespread practice during hospitalization in response to limited hospital formularies. However, therapeutic interchange may increase risk of medication errors. The objective was to characterize the prevalence and safety of therapeutic interchange. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Secondary analysis of a transitions of care study. We included patients over age 64 admitted to a tertiary care hospital between 2009-2010 with heart failure, pneumonia, or acute coronary syndrome who were taking a medication in any of six commonly-interchanged classes on admission: proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2 blockers), hydroxymethylglutaryl CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). There was limited electronic medication reconciliation support available. Main measures were presence and accuracy of therapeutic interchange during hospitalization, and rate of medication reconciliation errors on discharge. We examined charts of 303 patients taking 555 medications at time of admission in the six medication classes of interest. A total of 244 (44.0%) of medications were therapeutically interchanged to an approved formulary drug at admission, affecting 64% of the study patients. Among the therapeutically interchanged drugs, we identified 78 (32.0%) suspected medication conversion errors. The discharge medication reconciliation error rate was 11.5% among the 244 therapeutically interchanged medications, compared with 4.2% among the 311 unchanged medications (relative risk [RR] 2.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45-5.19). CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic interchange was prevalent among hospitalized patients in this study and elevates the risk for potential medication errors during and after hospitalization. Improved electronic systems for managing therapeutic interchange and medication reconciliation may be valuable.

Stagnation in hospitals' adoption of data integration functionalities coupled with reduction in the number of operational health information exchanges could become a significant impediment to hospitals' adoption of 3 critical capabilities: electronic health information exchange, interoperability, and medication reconciliation, in which electronic systems are used to assist with resolving medication discrepancies and improving patient safety. Against this backdrop, we assessed the relationships between the 3 capabilities.We conducted an observational study applying partial least squares-structural equation modeling technique to 27 variables obtained from the 2013 American Hospital Association annual survey Information Technology (IT) supplement, which describes health IT capabilities.We included 1330 hospitals. In confirmatory factor analysis, out of the 27 variables, 15 achieved loading values greater than 0.548 at P < .001, as such were validated as the building blocks of the 3 capabilities. Subsequent path analysis showed a significant, positive, and cyclic relationship between the capabilities, in that decreases in the hospitals' adoption of one would lead to decreases in the adoption of the others.These results show that capability for high quality medication reconciliation may be impeded by lagging adoption of interoperability and health information exchange capabilities. Policies focused on improving one or more of these capabilities may have ancillary benefits.

Background To isolate hospital effects on risk-standardized hospital-readmission rates, we examined readmission outcomes among patients who had multiple admissions for a similar diagnosis at more than one hospital within a given year. Methods We divided the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services hospital-wide readmission measure cohort from July 2014 through June 2015 into two random samples. All the patients in the cohort were Medicare recipients who were at least 65 years of age. We used the first sample to calculate the risk-standardized readmission rate within 30 days for each hospital, and we classified hospitals into performance quartiles, with a lower readmission rate indicating better performance (performance-classification sample). The study sample (identified from the second sample) included patients who had two admissions for similar diagnoses at different hospitals that occurred more than 1 month and less than 1 year apart, and we compared the observed readmission rates among patients who had been admitted to hospitals in different performance quartiles. Results In the performance-classification sample, the median risk-standardized readmission rate was 15.5% (interquartile range, 15.3 to 15.8). The study sample included 37,508 patients who had two admissions for similar diagnoses at a total of 4272 different hospitals. The observed readmission rate was consistently higher among patients admitted to hospitals in a worse-performing quartile than among those admitted to hospitals in a better-performing quartile, but the only significant difference was observed when the patients were admitted to hospitals in which one was in the best-performing quartile and the other was in the worst-performing quartile (absolute difference in readmission rate, 2.0 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.4 to 3.5; P=0.001). Conclusions When the same patients were admitted with similar diagnoses to hospitals in the best-performing quartile as compared with the worst-performing quartile of hospital readmission performance, there was a significant difference in rates of readmission within 30 days. The findings suggest that hospital quality contributes in part to readmission rates independent of factors involving patients. (Funded by Yale-New Haven Hospital Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation and others.).

INTRODUCTION: Orthopaedic care is shifting to alternative payment models. We examined whether New York University Langone Medical Center achieved savings under the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Bundled Payments for Care Improvement initiative. METHODS: This study was a difference-in-differences study of Medicare fee-for-service patients hospitalized from April 2011 to June 2012 and October 2013 to December 2014 for lower extremity joint arthroplasty, cardiac valve procedures, or spine surgery (intervention groups), or for congestive heart failure, major bowel procedures, medical peripheral vascular disorders, medical noninfectious orthopaedic care, or stroke (control group). We examined total episode costs and costs by service category. RESULTS: We included 2,940 intervention episodes and 1,474 control episodes. Relative to the trend in the control group, lower extremity joint arthroplasty episodes achieved the greatest savings: adjusted average episode cost during the intervention period decreased by $3,017 (95% confidence interval [CI], -$6,066 to $31). For cardiac procedures, the adjusted average episode cost decreased by $2,999 (95% CI, -$8,103 to $2,105), and for spinal fusion, it increased by $8,291 (95% CI, $2,879 to $13,703). Savings were driven predominantly by shifting postdischarge care from inpatient rehabilitation facilities to home. Spinal fusion index admission costs increased because of changes in surgical technique. DISCUSSION: Under bundled payment, New York University Langone Medical Center decreased total episode costs in patients undergoing lower extremity joint arthroplasty. For patients undergoing cardiac valve procedures, evidence of savings was not as strong, and for patients undergoing spinal fusion, total episode costs increased. For all three conditions, the proportion of patients referred to inpatient rehabilitation facilities upon discharge decreased. These changes were not associated with an increase in index hospital length of stay or readmission rate. CONCLUSION: Opportunities for savings under bundled payment may be greater for lower extremity joint arthroplasty than for other conditions.