Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND: Efficacy trials have shown that antiviral therapy improves the outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, prospective data regarding the effect of antiviral therapy on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially among patients without cirrhosis, are limited. The authors examined the impact of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) on the incidence of HCC using a validated prediction model. METHODS: The incidence of HCC in patients treated with TDF was obtained in the pivotal TDF registration studies after 384 weeks of follow-up. The predicted risk of HCC in individual patients was calculated using the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) model, which estimates HCC incidence for up to 10 years based on age, sex, alanine aminotransferase level, hepatitis B e antigen status, and HBV-DNA. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated comparing the observed and predicted numbers of HCC cases in the study cohort. RESULTS: Among 634 patients with evaluable baseline biopsies, 152 had cirrhosis (Ishak fibrosis score of 5 or 6) and 482 did not. During the 384 weeks of study, 14 cases of HCC were reported, with 4 occurring within the first year. The incidence of HCC was 0.37% per year in the study as a whole (0.28% among patients without cirrhosis and 0.65% among patients with cirrhosis). Among patients without cirrhosis, the observed incidence of HCC was significantly lower than predicted (SIR, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.199-0.795). The last HCC case in a patient with cirrhosis occurred around week 192 with an SIR of 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.231-1.144) reported at week 384. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the REACH-B risk calculator, long-term therapy with TDF was associated with a reduced incidence of HCC among patients without cirrhosis who met treatment criteria.

OBJECTIVE: The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN: We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as >/= 0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (>/= 20 g/day for >/= 5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS: Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS: Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.