Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVES: The presence of tubulointerstitial damage (TID) on renal biopsy is considered to be a late sequela of lupus nephritis (LN). The objective of this study was to determine if TID predicts progression to end stage renal disease (ESRD) in LN patients without advanced kidney disease. METHODS: All SLE patients with an index biopsy consistent with LN between January 2005 and July 2015, and eGFR >/= 30mL/min/1.73m2 were included. Moderate-to-severe TID was defined as the presence of moderate-to-severe tubular atrophy and/or interstitial fibrosis. Time to ESRD was defined as time from the index biopsy date to incident ESRD date; non-ESRD patients were censored at the time of death or the last visit before December 2015. Time-dependent analyses were conducted to evaluate whether moderate-to-severe TID was predictive of ESRD progression. RESULTS: Of the 131 LN patients with eGFR >/= 30mL/min/1.73m2, 17 (13%) patients progressed to ESRD. Moderate-to-severe TID was present in 13% of biopsies with eGFR >/= 60mL/min/1.73m2 and in 33% of biopsies with eGFR between 30 and 60mL/min/1.73m2. Moderate-to-severe TID was associated with a higher risk of ESRD progression: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 4.1, 95% CI: 1.4-12.1, p = 0.01 for eGFR >/= 30mL/min/1.73m2; HR = 6.2, 95% CI: 1.7-23.2, p = 0.008 for eGFR >/= 60mL/min/1.73m2. There was no association between tubulointerstitial inflammation (TII) and ESRD progression. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate-to-severe TID, but not TII, was a strong predictor of ESRD progression independent of eGFR or glomerular findings, therefore, providing an important window for potential early interventions.

Objective/UNASSIGNED:To evaluate response duration and identify predictors of transitioning into and out of the response state in patients with SLE receiving standard of care (SoC) in 52-week clinical trials. Methods/UNASSIGNED:A multistate model (MSM) allowing for bidirectional transitions between response and non-response states was fit to data on 759 patients with SLE with active disease randomised to SoC. The probability of being in response at 52 weeks, average duration of response (sojourn time) and mean total time in response for SLE Responder Index (SRI-4, SRI-5, SRI-6) and BILAG-based Composite Lupus Assessment (BICLA) were estimated. Predictors of attainment and loss of SRI-5 response were also assessed. Results/UNASSIGNED:The MSM estimated probability of being in response at 52 weeks ranged from 42% (SRI-6) to 61% (SRI-4). Mean duration of response ranged from 20.4 weeks (BICLA) to 31.5 weeks (SRI-4). Mean total time in response was 16.4-24.8 weeks. Baseline characteristics predictive of shorter SRI-5 response duration were African descent (p=0.005), longer history of disease (p=0.03), higher anti-dsDNA antibody titres (p=0.039), lower lymphocyte count (p=0.008) and lower haemoglobin (p=0.006). Younger age (p<0.001) and higher protein/creatinine ratio (p<0.001) were associated with higher likelihood of achieving SRI-5 but also shorter response duration. Conclusion/UNASSIGNED:Factors associated with disease severity were more predictive of shorter response duration than of 52-week response status. Analysing landmark response rates and response duration using MSM may be a more powerful way to distinguish effective investigational treatments from background SoC, although this remains to be evaluated in future trials.

OBJECTIVE: The Manhattan Lupus Surveillance Program (MLSP) is a population-based registry designed to determine the prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in 2007 and the incidence from 2007 to 2009 among residents of New York County (Manhattan), New York, and to characterize cases by race/ethnicity, including Asians and Hispanics, for whom data are lacking. METHODS: We identified possible SLE cases from hospital records, rheumatologist records, and administrative databases. Cases were defined according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) classification criteria, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) classification criteria, or the treating rheumatologist's diagnosis. Rates among Manhattan residents were age-standardized, and capture-recapture analyses were conducted to assess case underascertainment. RESULTS: By the ACR definition, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates of SLE were 62.2 and 4.6 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Rates were approximately 9 times higher in women than in men for prevalence (107.4 versus 12.5) and incidence (7.9 versus 1.0). Compared with non-Hispanic white women (64.3), prevalence was higher among non-Hispanic black (210.9), Hispanic (138.3), and non-Hispanic Asian (91.2) women. Incidence rates were higher among non-Hispanic black women (15.7) compared with non-Hispanic Asian (6.6), Hispanic (6.5), and non-Hispanic white (6.5) women. Capture-recapture adjustment increased the prevalence and incidence rates (75.9 and 6.0, respectively). Alternate SLE definitions without capture-recapture adjustment revealed higher age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates (73.8 and 6.2, respectively, by the SLICC definition and 72.6 and 5.0 by the rheumatologist definition) than the ACR definition, with similar patterns by sex and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSION: The MLSP confirms findings from other registries on disparities by sex and race/ethnicity, provides new estimates among Asians and Hispanics, and provides estimates using the SLICC criteria.