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Comparative validity of 3 diabetes mellitus risk prediction scoring models in a multiethnic US cohort: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
Mann, Devin M; Bertoni, Alain G; Shimbo, Daichi; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Chen, Haiying; Jenny, Nancy Swords; Muntner, Paul
Several models for estimating risk of incident diabetes in US adults are available. The authors aimed to determine the discriminative ability and calibration of published diabetes risk prediction models in a contemporary multiethnic cohort. Participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis without diabetes at baseline (2000-2002; n = 5,329) were followed for a median of 4.75 years. The predicted risk of diabetes was calculated using published models from the Framingham Offspring Study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, and the San Antonio Heart Study. The mean age of participants was 61.6 years (standard deviation, 10.2); 29.3% were obese, 53.1% had hypertension, 34.9% had a family history of diabetes, 27.5% had high triglyceride levels, 33.8% had low high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and 15.3% had impaired fasting glucose. There were 446 incident cases of diabetes (fasting glucose level >or=126 mg/dL or initiation of antidiabetes medication use) diagnosed during follow-up. C statistics were 0.78, 0.84, and 0.83 for the Framingham, ARIC, and San Antonio risk prediction models, respectively. There were significant differences between observed and predicted diabetes risks (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-squared test for each model: P < 0.001). The recalibrated and best-fit models achieved sufficient goodness of fit (each P > 0.10). The Framingham, ARIC, and San Antonio models maintained high discriminative ability but required recalibration in a modern, multiethnic US cohort.
PMCID:2877477
PMID: 20375194
ISSN: 1476-6256
CID: 2173582
Endothelial dysfunction and the risk of hypertension: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis
Shimbo, Daichi; Muntner, Paul; Mann, Devin; Viera, Anthony J; Homma, Shunichi; Polak, Joseph F; Barr, R Graham; Herrington, David; Shea, Steven
Hypertension is associated with impaired endothelial function in cross-sectional studies. However, few longitudinal data exist on whether endothelial dysfunction precedes the development of hypertension. We examined the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between endothelial-dependent brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and hypertension prevalence and incidence in 3500 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, an ethnically diverse, community-based cohort study. At baseline, the prevalence ratios (95% CI) of hypertension from the highest to the lowest quartile of FMD were 1.00 (referent), 1.26 (1.12 to 1.40), 1.35 (1.21 to 1.52), and 1.68 (1.50 to 1.87; linear trend P<0.001). This association remained (P=0.017) after adjustment for demographics (age, sex, and ethnicity), Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis site, and other risk factors. Of the 1869 participants without hypertension at baseline, 584 (31.3%) developed hypertension over a median follow-up of 4.8 years. The unadjusted relative risks (95% CI) of incident hypertension from the highest to the lowest quartile of FMD were 1.00 (referent), 1.38 (1.14 to 1.67), 1.44 (1.19 to 1.74), and 1.64 (1.36 to 1.97; linear trend P<0.001). However, after adjustment for demographics and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis site, the relationship between FMD and incident hypertension was attenuated and not statistically significant: 1.00 (referent), 1.26 (1.04 to 1.52), 1.19 (0.98 to 1.44), and 1.18 (0.97 to 1.44). The longitudinal results also did not appreciably change after adjustment for additional risk factors and baseline blood pressure levels. In this sample, reduced FMD was not an independent predictor of hypertension incidence, suggesting that impaired endothelial function does not play a major role in the development of hypertension.
PMCID:2896877
PMID: 20308612
ISSN: 1524-4563
CID: 2173592
Combined role of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate and microalbuminuria on the prevalence of peripheral arterial disease
Baber, Usman; Mann, Devin; Shimbo, Daichi; Woodward, Mark; Olin, Jeffrey W; Muntner, Paul
Chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined by either microalbuminuria (MA) or a reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), is associated with an increased risk of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The presence of both abnormalities might identify a subgroup of adults at particularly high risk of PAD. Accordingly, we sought to evaluate the combined effect of a reduced eGFR and MA on the prevalence of PAD among United States adults. United States adults >or=40 years old (n = 6,951) participating in the 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were cross-classified into 4 groups according to the presence or absence of MA (urinary albumin/creatinine ratio >or=30 mg/g) and reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). PAD was defined as an ankle-brachial index of <0.9. The prevalence of PAD among adults without MA or a reduced eGFR was 3.6% compared to 9.7%, 14.8%, and 25.4% among adults with MA alone, reduced eGFR alone, and both reduced eGFR and MA, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, the odds ratio for prevalent PAD associated with MA alone, reduced eGFR alone, and both reduced eGFR and MA compared to those without MA or reduced eGFR was 1.72 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 2.55), 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.29), and 2.26 (95% confidence interval 1.30 to 3.94), respectively. In conclusion, the coexistence of MA and reduced eGFR was associated with a high prevalence of PAD and might be useful in identifying patients with vascular disease.
PMID: 19892066
ISSN: 1879-1913
CID: 2173612
Trends in medication use among US adults with diabetes mellitus: glycemic control at the expense of controlling cardiovascular risk factors [Letter]
Mann, Devin M; Woodward, Mark; Ye, Fen; Krousel-Wood, Marie; Muntner, Paul
PMID: 19822830
ISSN: 1538-3679
CID: 2173632
Assessing the validity of self-reported medication adherence among inner-city asthmatic adults: the Medication Adherence Report Scale for Asthma
Cohen, Jessica L; Mann, Devin M; Wisnivesky, Juan P; Home, Robert; Leventhal, Howard; Musumeci-Szabo, Tamara J; Halm, Ethan A
BACKGROUND: A validated tool to assess adherence with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) could help physicians and researchers determine whether poor asthma control is due to poor adherence or severe intrinsic asthma. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the Medication Adherence Report Scale for Asthma (MARS-A), a 10-item, self-reported measure of adherence with ICS. METHODS: We interviewed 318 asthmatic adults receiving care at 2 inner-city clinics. Self-reported adherence with ICS was measured by MARS-A at baseline and 1 and 3 months. ICS adherence was measured electronically in 53 patients. Electronic adherence was the percentage of days patients used ICS. Patients with a mean MARS-A score of 4.5 or higher or with electronic adherence of more than 70% were defined as good adherers. We assessed internal validity (Cronbach alpha, test-retest correlations), criterion validity (associations between self-reported adherence and electronic adherence), and construct validity (correlating self-reported adherence with ICS beliefs). RESULTS: The mean patient age was 47 years; 40% of patients were Hispanic, 40% were black, and 18% were white; 53% had prior asthma hospitalizations; and 70% had prior oral steroid use. Electronic substudy patients were similar to the rest of the cohort in age, sex, race, and asthma severity. MARS-A had good interitem correlation in English and Spanish (Cronbach alpha = 0.85 and 0.86, respectively) and good test-retest reliability (r = 0.65, P < .001). According to electronic measurements, patients used ICS 52% of days. Continuous MARS-A scores correlated with continuous electronic adherence (r = 0.42, P<.001), and dichotomized high self-reported adherence predicted high electronic adherence (odds ratio, 10.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-44.5; P < .001). Construct validity was good, with self-reported adherence higher in those saying daily ICS use was important and ICS were controller medications (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: MARS-A demonstrated good psychometric performance as a self-reported measure of adherence with ICS among English- and Spanish-speaking, low-income, minority patients with asthma.
PMID: 19852197
ISSN: 1081-1206
CID: 2173622
Resistant disease or resistant patient: problems with adherence to cardiovascular medications in the elderly
Mann, Devin M
When faced with difficult-to-control cardiovascular risk factors, clinicians need to address the potential role of patient adherence to medication. Among the elderly in particular, careful consideration must be paid to accurately diagnosing an adherence problem in the context of often worsening atherosclerosis. This process includes moving beyond relying on clinical intuition to ascertain whether a patient has "real" (e.g., identifiable) reasons for suboptimal risk factor control and becoming comfortable using evidence-based questions and other ancillary data, when available, to more objectively identify patients with adherence issues. Once identified, a tailored search for an etiology that explores elderly specific patient, physician, and health care system factors needs to be conducted to understand why adherence is a problem for the patient. Finally, clinicians should employ simple tools and clear communication to work with patients and to help them overcome the relevant barriers.
PMID: 20722243
ISSN: 0016-867x
CID: 2173542
Is measuring C-reactive protein useful for guiding treatment in women > or = 60 years and men > or = 50 years of age?
Muntner, Paul; Mann, Devin; Razzouk, Louai; Klarenbach, Scott; Manns, Braden; Tonelli, Marcello; Farkouh, Michael E
Using the results of the JUPITER trial, a recent report estimated that up to 11 million older United States (US) adults with C-reactive protein (CRP) levels > or =2 mg/L not currently recommended statins may benefit from treatment. However, the need to measure CRP in making this treatment decision has not been evaluated. Using data from 887 older US men and women (men > or =50 years old, women > or =60 years old) not currently on or recommended statin therapy participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006, we determined the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of patient characteristics in identifying the presence of CRP > or =2 mg/L. If CRP > or =2 mg/L were included as an indication for statin therapy, then 90% of older US adults would be recommended treatment. Patients with CRP > or =2 mg/L were more likely (p <0.05) to be current smokers, obese, and have chronic kidney disease. However, characteristics (including demographics, cigarette smoking, obesity, chronic kidney disease, and metabolic syndrome) had low positive predictive values (<70%) for identifying patients with CRP > or =2 mg/L and negative predictive values (<60%) for those with CRP <2 mg/L. In conclusion, these findings suggest patient characteristics cannot be easily used to identify patients with CRP > or =2 mg/L. Given the demonstrated benefits of statin therapy, cost of measuring CRP, and large percentage of older US adults with high CRP, universal statin therapy for older US adults warrants investigation.
PMID: 19616667
ISSN: 0002-9149
CID: 1130252
Age-related associations of hypertension and diabetes mellitus with chronic kidney disease
Islam, Tareq M; Fox, Caroline S; Mann, Devin; Muntner, Paul
BACKGROUND: Studies suggest end-stage renal disease incidence and all-cause mortality rates among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) differ by age. The association of diabetes mellitus and hypertension with CKD across the adult lifespan is not well established. METHODS: Data from NHANES 1999-2004 were used to determine the association of risk factors for stage 3 or 4 CKD (n = 12,518) and albuminuria (n = 12,778) by age grouping (20 to 49, 50 to 69, and > or =70 years). Stage 3 or 4 CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 15 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 and albuminuria as an albumin to creatinine ratio > or =30 mg/g. RESULTS: For adults 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and > or =70 years of age, the prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) of stage 3 or 4 CKD associated with hypertension were 1.94 (0.86 - 4.35), 1.51 (1.09 - 2.07), 1.31 (1.15 - 1.49), respectively (p-trend = 0.038). The analogous prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) were 3.01 (1.35 - 6.74), 1.61 (1.15 - 2.25), 1.40 (1.15 - 1.69), respectively, for diagnosed diabetes mellitus (p-trend = 0.067); and 2.67 (0.53 - 13.4), 1.35 (0.69 - 2.63), 1.08 (0.78 - 1.51), respectively, for undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (p-trend = 0.369). The prevalence ratios of albuminuria associated with hypertension and diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus were lower at older age (each p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Among US adults, diabetes mellitus and hypertension are associated with CKD and albuminuria regardless of age. However, the associations were stronger at younger ages.
PMCID:2714514
PMID: 19563681
ISSN: 1471-2369
CID: 2173642
Predictors of adherence to diabetes medications: the role of disease and medication beliefs
Mann, Devin M; Ponieman, Diego; Leventhal, Howard; Halm, Ethan A
Despite the effectiveness of drug therapy in diabetes management high rates of poor adherence persist. The purpose of this study was to identify potentially modifiable patient disease and medication beliefs associated with poor medication adherence among people with diabetes. A cohort of patients with diabetes was recruited from an urban primary-care clinic in New York City. Patients were interviewed in English or Spanish about: disease beliefs, medication beliefs, regimen complexity, diabetes knowledge, depression, self-efficacy, and medication adherence (Morisky scale). Logistic regression was used to identify multivariate predictors of poor medication adherence (Morisky > 1). Patients (n = 151) had diabetes for an average of 13 years with a mean HgA1C of 7.6 (SD 1.7). One-in-four (28%) were poor adherers to their diabetes medicines. In multivariate analyses, predictors of poor medication adherence were: believing you have diabetes only when your sugar is high (OR = 7.4;2-27.2), saying there was no need to take medicine when the glucose was normal (OR = 3.5;0.9-13.7), worrying about side-effects of diabetes medicines (OR = 3.3;1.3-8.7), lack of self-confidence in controlling diabetes (OR = 2.8;1.1-7.1), and feeling medicines are hard to take (OR = 14.0;4.4-44.6). Disease and medication beliefs inconsistent with a chronic disease model of diabetes were significant predictors of poor medication adherence. These suboptimal beliefs are potentially modifiable and are logical targets for educational interventions to improve diabetes self-management.
PMID: 19184390
ISSN: 1573-3521
CID: 2173652
Misconceptions about diabetes and its management among low-income minorities with diabetes
Mann, Devin M; Ponieman, Diego; Leventhal, Howard; Halm, Ethan A
OBJECTIVE: To determine diabetic patients' knowledge and beliefs about the disease and medications that could hinder optimal disease management. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 151 type 2 diabetic patients characterizing diabetes knowledge and beliefs about the disease and medications was conducted. RESULTS: Mean diabetes duration was 13 years. Over half of the patients (56%) believed that normal glucose is
PMCID:2660470
PMID: 19131457
ISSN: 1935-5548
CID: 2173672