Faculty Bibliography

Since their early development in the 1980s, Simulated Allocation Models (SAMs) have helped policymakers forecast the impact of proposed allocation policy changes on patient outcomes before implementation. In the United States, models like the Kidney-Pancreas Simulated Allocation Model, Liver Simulated Allocation Model, and Thoracic Simulated Allocation Model have been instrumental in shaping organ allocation policies. Analogous models have emerged globally, including the ETKidney and Eurotransplant Liver Allocation System simulators for the Eurotransplant region, to address country and region-specific allocation challenges. This review categorizes and compares SAMs based on their core assumptions, data, and modeling approaches. We highlight challenges in model validation, the use of synthetic data, and model transparency. While simplifying assumptions are often necessary because of limited data, their influence on results should be clearly communicated to ensure policymakers can interpret model predictions accurately. Furthermore, model validation using both retrospective and prospective data is essential to assess performance under evolving policies. Greater transparency through open-source models, detailed reporting of assumptions, and validation efforts can enhance collaboration, reproducibility, and confidence in transplant research. By providing a global perspective on SAMs, this review aims to inform future research and policy development, promoting evidence-based policy development in organ transplantation.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Kidney transplant recipients are at risk for adverse health outcomes. Digital health tools such as wearable accelerometers and continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) can provide detailed, noninvasive tracking of health behaviors and measures, such as physical activity, sleep, and glucose levels, that may offer insights into future health concerns, such as posttransplant diabetes mellitus, cognitive health, and transplant rejection. However, there is limited evidence on the feasibility and acceptability of these devices in kidney transplant candidates older than 50 y. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:This observational cross-sectional pilot study aimed to examine the feasibility of 2 digital health tools: an accelerometer and a continuous glucose monitor. Participants were eligible for the study if they were living donor kidney transplant candidates, aged 50 y or older, had no known cognitive impairments, and could provide informed consent. Participants were asked to wear a CGM and an accelerometer for up to 14 d before their kidney transplant surgery. Device feasibility was quantified by (1) the total time the devices were worn, and (2) the validated System Usability Scale survey administered after the devices were returned. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:20 participants enrolled in the study (mean age 64 ± 9 y, 25% women, 40% with type 2 diabetes). The median number of days of accelerometer and CGM wear were 7 (interquartile range, 6-10) d and 7 (interquartile range, 7-10) d, respectively. Ninety percent of participants reported a favorable opinion of both devices. Participants wore the CGM 100% of the time and the accelerometer 90% of the time, indicating high adherence. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:The use of digital devices was acceptable among kidney transplant candidates aged older than 50 y, paving the way for larger studies to identify early digital biomarkers of health outcomes in this high-risk population.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Understanding center-level decision-making for suboptimal kidney (SOK) offers is critical to ensure utilization of all transplantable kidneys. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:We quantified center-level variation in accepting SOK deceased donor kidney transplant (DDKT) offers using 2021-2023 national registry data. SOK subtypes included: donor age >60, ultimate cold ischemia time >24 h, hepatitis C positive, terminal serum creatinine >2.0 mg/dL, donation after circulatory death, kidney donor profile index >85%, and public health service increased risk donors. Gini coefficient (Gini) was used to analyze inequality in DDKT utilization by SOK subtype. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to calculate the median odds ratio (mOR), measuring center-level variation in accepting SOK donor offers among adult centers. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Of all DDKTs, 72.6% were from donors with at least 1 SOK characteristic. Inequality persisted in utilization of SOK DDKTs (Gini of all SOKs: 0.53, Gini of all non-SOKs: 0.47). The 193 adult centers accepted a median (interquartile range) of 12.5% (8.4%-19.2%) offered non-SOK donors and 7.2% (4.6%-10.8%) offered SOK donors. Non-SOK donors and SOK donors were refused by a median (interquartile range) of 5 (3-10) and 9 (4-23) centers, respectively. The SOK subtypes with the least and the most center-level variance in acceptance were increased risk donor (mOR = 2.06) and cold ischemia time >36 h (mOR = 4.86), respectively. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Centers vary sharply in their willingness to accept certain types of SOK offers. Informing centers of their patterns of accepting specific donor phenotypes compared with their peers may motivate centers to accept more SOKs for clinically suitable recipients, thus improving patient access to DDKT.

BACKGROUND:Multiorgan heart and kidney transplants (HKTx) performed for patients with end-stage heart failure and chronic kidney disease have increased in recent years. However, no established protocols exist on whether a heart and kidney from the same donor should be transplanted in the same operation versus 1-2 days apart. METHODS:Using SRTR data 1993-2023, we compared same-donor HKTx recipients with both transplants performed on the same day ("simultaneous") to recipients with kidney transplants performed within 1 day of the heart transplant ("staged"). We examined differences in weighted post-transplant clinical characteristics using average treatment effect. Post-transplant mortality and graft failure was also assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and instrumental variable analysis adjusted for recipient characteristics and year of transplant. RESULTS:, p < 0.001). Weighted patient mortality, all cause heart failure (ACHF), and all cause kidney failure (ACKF) 4 years post-transplant were slightly lower for simultaneous versus staged HKTx recipients (17.1% vs. 19.9%, 17.2% vs. 20.1%, 20.8% vs. 24.7%). However, instrumental variable analysis found no meaningful differences in adjusted patient survival, ACHF, or ACKF by HKTx type. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Simultaneous HKTx recipients have shorter hospital stays, decreased mortality, and higher rates of graft survival post-transplant compared to staged HKTx recipients, which may reflect favorable patient factors that enable both operations to be performed on the same day rather than an inherent benefit of simultaneous HKTx, given equivalent adjusted patient mortality, ACHF, and ACKF.

BACKGROUND:Kidney transplantation (KT) from donors with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) to recipients with HIV (HIV D+/R+) is noninferior to KT from donors without HIV (HIV D-/R+) with regard to safety. However, there may be differences in posttransplant infections. METHODS:We performed a secondary analysis of the HOPE in Action KT Study (NCT02602262) comparing the time to first clinically relevant infection within 24 months posttransplantation in 99 HIV D+/R+ versus 99 HIV D-/R+. Secondary outcomes included incidence rates, infection-related death, and timing of clinically relevant infection, each stratified by donor HIV status. RESULTS:The cumulative incidence of a clinically relevant infection at 24 months posttransplantation was 73.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 63.1%-81.2%) for HIV D+/R+ versus 64.7% (95% CI: 53.0%-73.4%) for HIV D-/R+. Comparing time to first clinically relevant infection in HIV D+/R+ versus HIV D-/R+, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.01-2.04) at 24 months posttransplantation; for infections associated with hospitalization, the aHR was not significantly higher (1.21 [95% CI: .78-1.86). There were no significant differences in the number of infections, death from infection, duration, or site of infection between HIV D+/R+ versus HIV D-/R+, though viral infections were numerically more common in HIV D+/R+ (40% vs 35%). CONCLUSIONS:Although there was a statistically significant association between receipt of a kidney from a donor with HIV and time to first clinically relevant infection in the 24 months posttransplantation, there were no differences in infections associated with hospitalization. These data are overall reassuring as this emerging practice expands into clinical care. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02602262.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:exposure and mortality, overall and by race and ethnicity. STUDY DESIGN/UNASSIGNED:Cohort study (2003-2019). SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:National registry for patients with kidney failure. EXPOSURES/UNASSIGNED:), segregation scores (Theil's H method), deprivation scores (American Community Survey), and built environment factors (medically underserved areas [MUA] and urbanicity) by patients' residential ZIP code at dialysis initiation. OUTCOME/UNASSIGNED:All-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH/UNASSIGNED:and mortality, overall and stratified by race and ethnicity. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:< 0.001]). LIMITATIONS/UNASSIGNED:may not reflect individual-level exposures. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:and reduce related mortality.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Elevated concentrations of air pollutants in residential neighborhoods are associated with poorer survival, cognitive, and cardiovascular health among older adults. Older kidney transplant (KT) recipients may be more vulnerable due to chronic immunosuppression and age-related co-morbidities. Therefore, we quantified the associations between pollutant concentrations and post-KT outcomes among older recipients. METHODS:]) were obtained from the Center for Air, Climate and Energy Solutions, and matched by ZIP code and year of KT. We used shared frailty models (cluster = state) to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of mortality and death-censored graft failure (DCGF) and competing risk models with cluster-robust standard errors to estimate the adjusted subhazard ratios (aSHR) of dementia and stroke by pollutant concentrations. RESULTS:concentrations were associated with a 3% (aSHR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.07) and 4% higher risk of stroke (aSHR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07), respectively. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Residence in neighborhoods with high concentrations of ambient air pollutants can worsen patient and graft survival, as well as increase the risk of stroke among older KT recipients. Early screening and interventions targeting older recipients living in such neighborhoods may be crucial for preserving cognitive and cerebrovascular health, as well as improving longitudinal quality of life.

BACKGROUND:Bariatric surgery has long been established as an effective treatment option for obesity and diabetes [Kalainov et al. in J Am Acad Orthop Surg [32(10):427-438, 2025] and Ogden et al. in JAMA 311(8):806-806, 2025. 10.1001/jama.2014.732]. Recently, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists' (GLP-1RAs) use has expanded as an alternative therapy for weight loss and diabetes management. While GLP1RAs are known to be safe and effective, few have compared long term outcomes of GLP-1RAs versus the "gold standard" of bariatric surgery among Medicare/Medicaid patients, who make up the largest payer group in the U.S. [Kalainov et al. in J Am Acad Orthop Surg [32(10):427-438, 2025]. METHODS:This was a retrospective, multicenter study of obese, type-2 diabetic patients (T2D) ≥ 18 years old, who initiated weekly injectable semaglutide or tirzepatide or underwent bariatric surgery between January 1st, 2018 to July 31st, 2024. Patients with a baseline BMI ≤ 35, those with prior GLP1-RA use, or any prior bariatric procedure were excluded from analysis. The primary outcome of interest was % total body weight loss 3 months to 3 years post intervention among bariatrics surgery patients vs. GLP1-RA patients (any GLP1-RA prescription and 12 months continuous GLP1-RA prescription). RESULTS:7667 patients were included for analysis (7200 GLP1-RA, 467 bariatric surgery). Bariatric surgery patients were younger (median (IQR): 43 (34, 53) vs. 65 (54, 72); p < 0.001) and more likely to be female (67.5% vs. 60.8%; p < 0.01) and Hispanic (58.7% vs. 19.4%; p < 0.001) while GLP1-RA users were more likely to be white (58.5% vs. 10.7%; p < 0.001). In models adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, bariatric surgery was associated with a 22.9% total weight loss 3 years following surgery compared to 2.3% for patients with any GLP1-RA use, and 15.9% vs 2.4% for patients with 12 months consecutive GLP1-RA use (22.9 [21.0-24.8] vs 2.3 [0.5-4.1], 15.9 [6.9-24.9] vs. 2.4 [6.7-11.5]. CONCLUSIONS:Among obese, T2D, publicly insured patients, bariatric surgery was associated with greater weight loss than GLP1-RAs at all measured periods from 3 months to 3 years post op.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:A potential long-term complication of living kidney donation in male donors is scrotal swelling on the same side as the nephrectomy, and some undergo surgery to relieve discomfort from the fluid collection. The long-term risk for this outcome attributable to donation is unknown. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To evaluate long-term scrotal surgery rates after laparoscopic nephrectomy in male living kidney donors compared with nondonors. DESIGN/UNASSIGNED:Population-based cohort study (2002 to 2024). (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT06716723). SETTING/UNASSIGNED:Linked administrative health care databases in Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:898 male living kidney donors who had a laparoscopic nephrectomy were matched in a 1:10 ratio with 8980 male nondonors from the general population. The matching characteristics were age, date of cohort entry, rural residence, income, prior vasectomy, and prior inguinal hernia repair. Participants were followed for a median of 9 years, up to 22 years. MEASUREMENTS/UNASSIGNED:The primary outcome was hospitalization for surgery to address a unilateral scrotal fluid collection. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:< 0.001). The median time from donation to scrotal surgery was 5.2 years (IQR, 3.3 to 8.4 years); more than 90% of the surgeries were hydrocelectomies and were performed under general anesthesia. Over 20 years, the cumulative incidence was 13.8% in donors versus 0.7% in nondonors. LIMITATION/UNASSIGNED:The precise causal mechanism remains unknown. CONCLUSION/UNASSIGNED:Laparoscopic nephrectomy is associated with a higher risk for subsequent scrotal surgery in male living kidney donors. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE/UNASSIGNED:Canadian Institutes of Health Research.