Faculty Bibliography

IntroductionOlder adults with IBD are at higher risk for postoperative complications as compared to their younger counterparts, however factors contributing to this are unknown. We assessed risk factors associated with adverse IBD-related surgical outcomes, evaluated trends in emergency surgery, and explored differential risks by age.MethodsUsing the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database, we identified adults ≥18 years of age who underwent an IBD-related intestinal resection from 2005-2019. Our primary outcome included a 30-day composite of mortality, readmission, reoperation, and/or major postoperative complication.ResultsOverall, 49,746 intestinal resections were performed with 9,390 (18.8%) occurring among older adults with IBD. Nearly 37% of older adults experienced an adverse outcome as compared to 28.1% among younger adults with IBD (p<0.01). Among all adults with IBD, the presence of preoperative sepsis (aOR, 2.08; 95%CI 1.94-2.24), malnutrition (aOR, 1.22; 95%CI 1.14-1.31), dependent functional status (aOR, 6.92; 95%CI 4.36-11.57), and requiring emergency surgery (aOR, 1.50; 95%CI 1.38-1.64) increased the odds of an adverse postoperative outcome, with similar results observed when stratifying by age. Further, 8.8% of surgeries among older adults were emergent, with no change observed over time (p=0.16).DiscussionPreoperative factors contributing to the risk of an adverse surgical outcome are similar between younger and older individuals with IBD, and include elements such as malnutrition and functional status. Incorporating these measures into surgical decision-making can reduce surgical delays in older individuals at low-risk and help target interventions in those at high risk, transforming care for thousands of older adults with IBD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE:Older adults initiating dialysis have a high risk of mortality and that risk may be related to potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs). Our objective was to identify and validate mortality risk associated with American Geriatrics Society Beers Criteria PIM classes and concomitant PIM use. METHODS:We used US Renal Data System data to establish a cohort of adults aged ≥ 65 years initiating dialysis (2013-2014) and had no PIM prescriptions in the 6 months prior to dialysis initiation. In a development cohort (40% sample), adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were performed to determine which of 30 PIM classes were associated with mortality (or "high-risk" PIMs). Adjusted Cox models were performed to assess the association of the number of "high-risk" PIM fills/month with mortality. All models were repeated in the validation cohort (60% sample). RESULTS:In the development cohort (n = 15,570), only 13 of 30 PIM classes were associated with a higher mortality risk. Compared with those with no "high-risk" PIM fills/month, patients having one "high-risk" PIM fill/month had a 1.29-fold (95% confidence interval 1.21-1.38) increased risk of death; those with two or more "high-risk" PIM fills/month had a 1.40-fold (95% confidence interval 1.24-1.58) increased risk. These findings were similar in the validation cohort (n = 23,569). CONCLUSIONS:Only a minority of Beers Criteria PIM classes may be associated with mortality in the older dialysis population; however, mortality risk increases with concomitant use of "high-risk" PIMs. Additional studies are needed to confirm these associations and their underlying mechanisms.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT:Cardiovascular diseases account for 32% of deaths among kidney transplant recipients. Statin therapy is common in this population. However, its effect on mortality prevention remains unclear among kidney transplant recipients, whose clinical risk profile might be unique because of concomitant immunosuppressive therapy. In this national study of 58,264 single-kidney transplant recipients, statin use was associated with a 5% decrease in mortality. More importantly, this protective association was stronger among those who used a mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor for immunosuppression (27% decrease in mTOR inhibitor users versus 5% in nonusers). Our results suggest that statin therapy may reduce mortality in kidney transplant recipients and that the strength of this protective association may vary by immunosuppression regimen. BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in kidney transplant (KT) recipients, accounting for 32% of deaths. Statins are widely used in KT recipients, but effectiveness for preventing mortality remains unclear in this population, especially because of interaction between statins and immunosuppressive agents. We analyzed a national cohort to assess the real-world effectiveness of statins for reducing all-cause mortality in KT recipients. METHODS:We studied statin use and mortality among 58,264 adults (18 years or older) who received single kidneys between 2006 and 2016 and had Medicare part A/B/D. Statin use was ascertained from Medicare prescription drug claims and deaths from Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services records. We estimated the association of statin use with mortality using multivariable Cox models, with statin use as a time-varying exposure and immunosuppression regimen as effect modifiers. RESULTS:Statin use increased from 45.5% at KT to 58.2% at 1-year post-KT to 70.9% at 5-year post-KT. We observed 9785 deaths over 236,944 person-years. Overall, statin use was significantly associated with lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 0.99). The strength of this protective association varied by calcineurin inhibitor use (among tacrolimus users, aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.03 versus among calcineurin nonusers, aHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.87; interaction P =0.002), mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor use (among mTOR inhibitor users, aHR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.92 versus among nonusers, aHR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.00; interaction P =0.03), and mycophenolate use (among mycophenolate users, aHR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.02 versus among nonusers, aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.89; interaction P =0.002). CONCLUSION:Real-world evidence supports statin therapy for reducing all-cause mortality in KT recipients. Effectiveness might be greater when combined with mTOR inhibitor-based immunosuppression.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:The COVID-19 pandemic led to the urgent implementation of telehealth visits in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) care; however, data assessing feasibility remain limited. OBJECTIVES/UNASSIGNED:We looked to determine the completion rate of telehealth appointments for adults with IBD, as well as to evaluate demographic, clinical, and social predictors of incomplete appointments. DESIGN/UNASSIGNED:We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients with IBD who had at least one scheduled telehealth visit at the NYU IBD Center between 1 March 2020 and 31 August 2021, with only the first scheduled telehealth appointment considered. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Medical records were parsed for relevant covariables, and multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted association between demographic factors and an incomplete telehealth appointment. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED: = 0.22). After adjustment, patients with CD had higher odds of an incomplete appointment as compared to patients with UC [adjusted odds ratio (adjOR): 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.69], as did females (adjOR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.04-1.54), and patients who had a non-first-degree relative listed as an emergency contact (adjOR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.16-2.44). While age ⩾60 years was not associated with appointment completion status, we did find that age >80 years was an independent predictor of missed telehealth appointments (adjOR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.12-7.63) when compared to individuals aged 60-70 years. CONCLUSION/UNASSIGNED:telehealth, particularly those aged 60-80 years, may therefore provide an additional venue to complement in-person care.

The latent viral reservoir(LVR) remains a major barrier to HIV-1 curative strategies. It is unknown whether receiving a liver transplant from a donor with HIV might lead to an increase in the LVR since the liver is a large lymphoid organ. We found no differences in intact provirus, defective provirus, or the ratio of intact to defective provirus between recipients with ART-supporesed HIV who received a liver from a donor with(n = 19) or without HIV(n = 10). All measures remained stable from baseline by one-year post transplant. These data demonstrate that the LVR is stable after liver transplantation in people living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE:To examine whether body mass index (BMI) changes modify the association between kidney donation and incident hypertension. BACKGROUND:Obesity increases hypertension risk in both general and living kidney donor (LKD) populations. Donation-attributable risk in the context of obesity, and whether weight change modifies that risk, is unknown. METHODS:Nested case-control study among 1558 adult LKDs (1976-2020) with obesity (median follow-up: 3.6 years; interquartile range: 2.0-9.4) and 3783 adults with obesity in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) studies (9.2 y; interquartile range: 5.3-15.8). Hypertension incidence was compared by donor status using conditional logistic regression, with BMI change investigated for effect modification. RESULTS:Overall, LKDs and nondonors had similar hypertension incidence [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.16, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.94-1.43, P =0.16], even after adjusting for BMI change (IRR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.99-1.58, P =0.05). Although LKDs and nondonors who lost >5% BMI had comparable hypertension incidence (IRR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.46-1.34, P =0.36), there was a significant interaction between donor and >5% BMI gain (multiplicative interaction IRR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.15-2.29, P =0.006; relative excess risk due to interaction: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.24-1.56, P =0.007), such that LKDs who gained weight had higher hypertension incidence than similar nondonors (IRR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.32-2.53, P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Overall, LKDs and nondonors with obesity had similar hypertension incidence. Weight stability and loss were associated with similar hypertension incidence by donor status. However, LKDs who gained >5% saw increased hypertension incidence versus similar nondonors, providing support for counseling potential LKDs with obesity on weight management postdonation.

Machine learning (ML) models have recently shown potential for predicting kidney allograft outcomes. However, their ability to outperform traditional approaches remains poorly investigated. Therefore, using large cohorts of kidney transplant recipients from 14 centers worldwide, we developed ML-based prediction models for kidney allograft survival and compared their prediction performances to those achieved by a validated Cox-Based Prognostication System (CBPS). In a French derivation cohort of 4000 patients, candidate determinants of allograft failure including donor, recipient and transplant-related parameters were used as predictors to develop tree-based models (RSF, RSF-ERT, CIF), Support Vector Machine models (LK-SVM, AK-SVM) and a gradient boosting model (XGBoost). Models were externally validated with cohorts of 2214 patients from Europe, 1537 from North America, and 671 from South America. Among these 8422 kidney transplant recipients, 1081 (12.84%) lost their grafts after a median post-transplant follow-up time of 6.25 years (Inter Quartile Range 4.33-8.73). At seven years post-risk evaluation, the ML models achieved a C-index of 0.788 (95% bootstrap percentile confidence interval 0.736-0.833), 0.779 (0.724-0.825), 0.786 (0.735-0.832), 0.527 (0.456-0.602), 0.704 (0.648-0.759) and 0.767 (0.711-0.815) for RSF, RSF-ERT, CIF, LK-SVM, AK-SVM and XGBoost respectively, compared with 0.808 (0.792-0.829) for the CBPS. In validation cohorts, ML models' discrimination performances were in a similar range of those of the CBPS. Calibrations of the ML models were similar or less accurate than those of the CBPS. Thus, when using a transparent methodological pipeline in validated international cohorts, ML models, despite overall good performances, do not outperform a traditional CBPS in predicting kidney allograft failure. Hence, our current study supports the continued use of traditional statistical approaches for kidney graft prognostication.

Background: Pediatric transplant candidates have historically been disadvantaged on the transplant waitlist, with nearly half of pediatric deceased donor organs allocated to adult recipients (Hsu, Gastroenterology, 2017), and allocation pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) scores that underestimate children's expected 3-month mortality compared to that of adult patients (Chang, JAMA Pediatrics, 2018). Disparities in organ distribution prompted revision of the liver allocation policy in 2020 from donation services areas (DSA) to a series of distance-based concentric circles called acuity circles (AC) before being offered nationally (US GAO, 2022), which was designed to minimize geographic inequity in liver transplant. Prior to implementation of the new liver allocation policy, analysis using the Liver Simulated Allocation Model projected that AC allocation would decrease disparities for pediatric liver transplant candidates and recipients by increasing transplants and decreasing waitlist mortality (Mogul, Transplantation, 2020). In this study, we evaluate differences in pediatric whole liver transplants performed before and after the implementation of acuity circle liver allocation policy.
Study Design: We evaluated patient characteristics, adjusted MELD/PELD at time of transplant, calculated donor age at time of transplant among pediatric whole liver transplant recipients in low versus high-volume pediatric liver transplant centers performed before and after implementation of AC-based liver allocation policy using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.
Result(s): Before and after the implementation of ACs, differences in pediatric liver transplants by age group (<2 years, 2-5 years old, 5-12 years old, and 12-18 years old) remained significantly different between low and high-volume pediatric transplant centers. Under DSA allocation policy, the median MELD/PELD at transplant was 37.0 (IQR 30.0-41.0) in low-volume centers and 40.0 (IQR 30.0-41.0) in high-volume centers. After the implementation of acuity circles, median MELD/PELD at transplant decreased to 35.0 (IQR 21.0-41.0) in low-volume centers and 35.0 (IQR 25.0-41.0) in high-volume centers. Finally, donor age at time of transplant increased from 8.0 (IQR 2.00-18.0) to 13.5 (IQR 4.5-21.0) at low-volume centers, and from 3.0 (IQR 1.0-14.0) to 4.0 (IQR 1.0-14.0) at high-volume centers before and after the implementation of ACs.
Conclusion(s): The change from DSAs to ACs in allocation policy and the shift from regional to national review boards have affected the characteristics of organ recipients, adjusted MELD/PELD at time of transplant, and donor age at time of transplant differentially between whole liver transplant recipients at low-and high-volume pediatric liver transplant centers