Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Hurricanes are severe weather events that can disrupt power, water, and transportation systems. These disruptions may be deadly for patients requiring maintenance dialysis. We hypothesized that the mortality risk among patients requiring maintenance dialysis would be increased in the 30 days after a hurricane. METHODS:Patients registered as requiring maintenance dialysis in the United States Renal Data System who initiated treatment between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2017 in one of 108 hurricane-afflicted counties were followed from dialysis initiation until transplantation, dialysis discontinuation, a move to a nonafflicted county, or death. Hurricane exposure was determined as a tropical cyclone event with peak local wind speeds ≥64 knots in the county of a patient's residence. The risk of death after the hurricane was estimated using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS:The median age of the 187,388 patients was 65 years (IQR, 53-75) and 43.7% were female. There were 27 hurricanes and 105,398 deaths in 529,339 person-years of follow-up on dialysis. In total, 29,849 patients were exposed to at least one hurricane. Hurricane exposure was associated with a significantly higher mortality after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic covariates (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.22). The association persisted when adjusting for seasonality. CONCLUSIONS:Patients requiring maintenance dialysis have a higher mortality risk in the 30 days after a hurricane.

A recent study concluded that SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine responses were improved among transplant patients taking mTOR inhibitors (mTORi). This could have profound implications for vaccine strategies in transplant patients; however, limitations in the study design raise concerns about the conclusions. To address this issue more robustly, in a large cohort with appropriate adjustment for confounders, we conducted various regression- and machine learning-based analyses to compare antibody responses by immunosuppressive agents in a national cohort (n = 1037). MMF was associated with significantly lower odds of positive antibody response (aOR = _0.09 0.13_0.18 ). Consistent with the recent mTORi study, the odds tended to be higher with mTORi (aOR = _1.00 1.45_2.13 ); however, importantly, this seemingly protective tendency disappeared (aOR = _0.47 0.73_1.12 ) after adjusting for MMF. We repeated this comparison by combinations of immunosuppression agents. Compared to MMF + tacrolimus, MMF-free regimens were associated with higher odds of positive antibody response (aOR = _2.39 4.26_7.92 for mTORi+tacrolimus; _2.34 5.54_15.32 for mTORi-only; and _6.78 10.25_15.93 for tacrolimus-only), whereas MMF-including regimens were not, regardless of mTORi use (aOR = _0.81 1.54_2.98 for MMF + mTORi; and _0.81 1.51_2.87 for MMF-only). We repeated these analyses in an independent cohort (n = 512) and found similar results. Our study demonstrates that the recently reported findings were confounded by MMF, and that mTORi is not independently associated with improved vaccine responses.

BACKGROUND:Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are less likely to mount an antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. Understanding risk factors for impaired vaccine response can guide strategies for antibody testing and additional vaccine dose recommendations. METHODS:Using a nationwide observational cohort of 1031 SOTRs, we created a machine learning model to explore, identify, rank, and quantify the association of 19 clinical factors with antibody responses to 2 doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. External validation of the model was performed using a cohort of 512 SOTRs at Houston Methodist Hospital. RESULTS:Mycophenolate mofetil use, a shorter time since transplant, and older age were the strongest predictors of a negative antibody response, collectively contributing to 76% of the model's prediction performance. Other clinical factors, including transplanted organ, vaccine type (mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2), sex, race, and other immunosuppressants, showed comparatively weaker associations with an antibody response. This model showed moderate prediction performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 in our cohort and 0.67 in the external validation cohort. An online calculator based on our prediction model is available at http://transplantmodels.com/covidvaccine/. CONCLUSIONS:Our machine learning model helps understand which transplant patients need closer follow-up and additional doses of vaccine to achieve protective immunity. The online calculator based on this model can be incorporated into transplant providers' practice to facilitate patient-centric, precision risk stratification and inform vaccination strategies among SOTRs.

BACKGROUND:Among adult kidney transplant (KT) candidates, 21% are frail and 55% have cognitive impairment, increasing the risk of pre- and post-KT mortality. Centers often assess frailty status and cognitive function during transplant evaluation to help identify appropriate candidate. Yet, there are no ethical guidelines regarding the use of frailty and cognitive function during this evaluation. We seek to develop a clinical consensus on balancing utility and justice in access to KT for frail and cognitively impaired patients. METHODS:Twenty-seven experts caring for ESRD patients completed a two-round Delphi panel designed to facilitate consensus (> 80% agreement). RESULTS:Experts believed that denying patients transplantation based solely on expected patient survival was inequitable to frail or cognitively impaired candidates; 100% agreed that frailty and cognitive impairment are important factors to consider during KT evaluation. There was consensus that health related quality of life and social support are important to consider before waitlisting frail or cognitively impaired patients. Experts identified important factors to consider before waitlisting frail (likely to benefit from KT, frailty reversibility, age, and medical contraindications) and cognitively impaired (degree of impairment and medication adherence) patients. CONCLUSIONS:Clinical experts believed it was ethically unacceptable to allocate organs solely based on patients' expected survival; frailty and cognitive impairment should be measured at evaluation when weighed against other clinical factors. Ethical guidelines regarding the use of frailty and cognitive function during KT evaluation ought to be developed.

BACKGROUND:Elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported as a potential risk factor for cognitive impairment. Compared to the general population, older adults with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who are frequently affected by secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) are at increased risk of developing dementia. The main objective of our study was to evaluate if the risk of dementia in older (age ≥ 65) ESRD patients differed if they were treated for SHPT. METHODS:Using the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) and Medicare claims, we identified 189 433 older adults without a diagnosis of dementia, who initiated dialysis between 2006-2016. SHPT treatment was defined as use of vitamin D analogs, phosphate binders, calcimimetics, or parathyroidectomy. We quantified the association between treated SHPT and incident dementia during dialysis using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with inverse probability weighting, considering SHPT treatment as a time varying exposure. RESULTS:Of 189 433 older ESRD adults, 92% had a claims diagnosis of SHPT, and 123 388 (65%) were treated for SHPT. The rate of incident dementia was 6 cases per 100 person-years among SHPT treated patients compared to 11 cases per 100 person-years among untreated patients. Compared to untreated SHPT patients, the risk of dementia was 42% lower (aHR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.56-0.59) among SHPT treated patients. The magnitude of the beneficial effect of SHPT treatment differed by sex (pinteraction = 0.02) and race (pinteraction ≤ 0.01) with females (aHR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.54-0.58) and those of Asian (aHR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.46-0.57) or Black race (aHR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.48-0.53) having greatest reduction in dementia risk. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Receiving treatment for SHPT was associated with a lower risk of incident dementia among older patients with ESRD. This work provides additional support for treatment of SHPT in older ESRD patients.

Background:Humoral responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are attenuated in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs), necessitating additional booster vaccinations. The Omicron variant demonstrates substantial immune evasion, and it is unknown whether additional vaccine doses increase neutralizing capacity versus this variant of concern (VOC) among SOTRs. Methods:Within an observational cohort, 25 SOTRs with low seroresponse underwent anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 spike and receptor-binding domain immunoglobulin (Ig)G testing using a commercially available multiplex ELISA before and after a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose (D4). Surrogate neutralization (percent angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 inhibition [%ACE2i], range 0%-100% with >20% correlating with live virus neutralization) was measured against full-length spike proteins of the vaccine strain and 5 VOCs including Delta and Omicron. Changes in IgG level and %ACE2i were compared using the paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results:Anti-receptor-binding domain and anti-spike seropositivity increased post-D4 from 56% to 84% and 68% to 88%, respectively. Median (interquartile range) anti-spike antibody significantly increased post-D4 from 42.3 (4.9-134.2) to 228.9 (1115.4-655.8) World Health Organization binding antibody units. %ACE2i (median [interquartile range]) also significantly increased against the vaccine strain (5.8% [0%-16.8%] to 20.6% [5.8%-45.9%]) and the Delta variant (9.1% [4.9%-12.8%] to 17.1% [10.3%-31.7%]), yet neutralization versus Omicron was poor, did not increase post-D4 (4.1% [0%-6.9%] to 0.5% [0%-5.7%]), and was significantly lower than boosted healthy controls. Conclusions:Although a fourth vaccine dose increases anti-spike IgG and neutralizing capacity against many VOCs, some SOTRs may remain at high risk for Omicron infection despite boosting. Thus, additional protective interventions or alternative vaccination strategies should be urgently explored.