Faculty Bibliography

Recent Bayesian reanalyses of prominent trials in critical illness have generated controversy by contradicting the initial conclusions based on conventional frequentist analyses. Many clinicians might be sceptical that Bayesian analysis, a philosophical and statistical approach that combines prior beliefs with data to generate probabilities, provides more useful information about clinical trials than the frequentist approach. In this Personal View, we introduce clinicians to the rationale, process, and interpretation of Bayesian analysis through a systematic review and reanalysis of interventional trials in critical illness. In the majority of cases, Bayesian and frequentist analyses agreed. In the remainder, Bayesian analysis identified interventions where benefit was probable despite the absence of statistical significance, where interpretation depended substantially on choice of prior distribution, and where benefit was improbable despite statistical significance. Bayesian analysis in critical care medicine can help to distinguish harm from uncertainty and establish the probability of clinically important benefit for clinicians, policy makers, and patients.

BACKGROUND:Current incidence and outcome of patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit (ICU) are unknown, especially for patients not meeting criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). METHODS:bilateral opacities were compared. FINDINGS:40.4%). Patients with unilateral-infiltrate had lower unadjusted mortality, but similar adjusted mortality compared to those with ARDS. The number of quadrants on chest imaging was associated with an increased risk of death. There was no difference in mortality comparing patients with unilateral-infiltrate and ARDS with only two quadrants involved. INTERPRETATION:More than one-third of patients receiving mechanical ventilation have hypoxaemia and new infiltrates with a hospital mortality of 38.6%. Survival is dependent on the degree of pulmonary involvement whether or not ARDS criteria are reached.

Identifying new effective treatments for the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), including COVID-19 ARDS, remains a challenge. The field of ARDS investigation is moving increasingly toward innovative approaches such as the personalization of therapy to biological and clinical sub-phenotypes. Additionally, there is growing recognition of the importance of the global context to identify effective ARDS treatments. This review highlights emerging opportunities and continued challenges for personalizing therapy for ARDS, from identifying treatable traits to innovative clinical trial design and recognition of patient-level factors as the field of critical care investigation moves forward into the twenty-first century.

BACKGROUND:To determine the frequency of, and factors associated with, death in hospital following ICU discharge to the ward. METHODS:The Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients with severe respiratory failure, conducted across 459 ICUs from 50 countries globally. This study aimed to understand the frequency and factors associated with death in hospital in patients who survived their ICU stay. We examined outcomes in the subpopulation discharged with no limitations of life sustaining treatments ('treatment limitations'), and the subpopulations with treatment limitations. RESULTS:2186 (94%) patients with no treatment limitations discharged from ICU survived, while 142 (6%) died in hospital. 118 (61%) of patients with treatment limitations survived while 77 (39%) patients died in hospital. Patients without treatment limitations that died in hospital after ICU discharge were older, more likely to have COPD, immunocompromise or chronic renal failure, less likely to have trauma as a risk factor for ARDS. Patients that died post ICU discharge were less likely to receive neuromuscular blockade, or to receive any adjunctive measure, and had a higher pre- ICU discharge non-pulmonary SOFA score. A similar pattern was seen in patients with treatment limitations that died in hospital following ICU discharge. CONCLUSIONS:A significant proportion of patients die in hospital following discharge from ICU, with higher mortality in patients with limitations of life-sustaining treatments in place. Non-survivors had higher systemic illness severity scores at ICU discharge than survivors. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02010073 .