Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVE:Medical students' abilities to predict postoperative complications and death are unknown. We hypothesize that medical students will lack confidence in determining surgical risk and will significantly overestimate surgical risk for post-operative morbidities and mortality. DESIGN/METHODS:Participants were invited to participate in an electronic, anonymous survey to assess their ability to predict surgical risk. The survey presented 7 complex clinical scenarios representative of a diverse general surgery practice. Participants were asked to assess the likelihood of different morbidities and mortality on a 0-100% scale, and predictions were compared to the ACS NSQIP risk calculator. SETTING/METHODS:Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut; Tertiary medical center PARTICIPANTS: Third year medical students on their surgery clerkship as well as general surgery residents were invited to participate. RESULTS:Most students were not confident about predicting postoperative complications (83.3%) or mortality (70.8%). Most students did not feel that the surgery clerkship adequately prepared them to assess surgical risk (69.6%). When compared to surgical residents for most presented cases (57% of cases), students and residents similarly overestimated postoperative morbidities and mortality. Estimates varied significantly, with wide 95% confidence intervals. Only 17% of NSQIP predicted estimates fell within the 95% confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS:Medical students overestimate morbidity and mortality following surgery in complex patients. Additionally, they lack confidence in their ability to predict surgical complications. A formal curriculum for risk prediction is needed for medical students.

The traditional apprenticeship model of research mentorship, where residents pursue research projects directed by attending surgeons, may be ill-suited to optimize research innovation, productivity, and leadership experience. This is particularly true in an era of ever mounting demands of academic attending surgeons, easier availability of powerful clinical databases, and more residents beginning training with prior research experience and advanced degrees. To help makeup the gaps of traditional research mentorship, we propose a complementary peer-focused, "sideways mentorship" approach. This model revolves around a consortium of residents who develop their own research ideas, and obtain feedback and technical input from fellow residents. Such a model provides trainees more opportunities to explore their own ideas, become exposed to a wider range of disciplines, share technical knowledge and prior experience, and practice being mentors themselves. We believe sideways mentoring model can be successful in this changing research era, and is a valuable addition to the traditional research model and encourage educational programs to support efforts in establishing resident-run research collaborative.

BACKGROUND:The number of patients undergoing preoperative risk stratification in the United States is expected to increase as the population ages. A large percentage of patients undergo some form of preoperative testing, and society guidelines suggest that up to 50% of the testing in lower risk surgical subgroups is unnecessary. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index and the risk calculator of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program are widely used tools as the first step of preoperative cardiac evaluation. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index was developed to fill a need for objective perioperative cardiac risk evaluation. Despite the ease of use of Revised Cardiac Risk Index, it is uncertain if the stratification is accurate for surgical patients because its accuracy in large surgical samples has not been tested. With the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk calculator having excellent accuracy in estimating cardiac complications (area under the receiver operating characteristic 0.895), a unique opportunity to test the predictive accuracy of postsurgical cardiac events became available. The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index for predicting cardiovascular complications after adhesiolysis for small bowel obstruction. METHODS:From 2005 to 2015, 34,032 cases of open or laparoscopic adhesiolysis (Current Procedural Terminology codes 44005 and 44180) for small bowel obstruction (International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition [ICD-10]) were analyzed using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program dataset. Revised Cardiac Risk Index estimates were calculated for each case and compared to reported cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction or cardiac arrest) using univariable logistic regression. Overall predictive accuracy was assessed by measuring model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic) and model calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistics). RESULTS:Although the Revised Cardiac Risk Index predicted cardiovascular complications with an odds ratio of 2.3 and a 95% confidence interval of 1.9 to 2.8 (P < .001) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square was significant (0.22, P = 0.64), the area under the receiver operating characteristic was poor (0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.67). CONCLUSION:Despite its relative simplicity, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index performed poorly as a predictor of cardiovascular complications after adhesiolysis for small bowel obstruction. These findings question the utility of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index in this patient population. Future studies should aim to develop models that are computationally simple while retaining predictive accuracy.

BACKGROUND:Although Hartmann procedure is common for operatively managed acute diverticulitis, there is accumulating evidence that primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion is safe, even in emergent cases. This study seeks to clarify the current adoption of primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion among emergent, operatively managed cases of acute diverticulitis and compare outcomes between primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion and Hartmann procedure. METHODS:Patients who underwent open, emergent Hartmann procedure or primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion for a primary diagnosis of diverticulitis between 2005 and 2015 were identified in the database of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. Outcomes were compared with logistic regression adjusted for patient and operative characteristics. RESULTS:From 2005-2015 the proportion of primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion decreased from 33% to 17% among emergent cases. Although mortality and complications were similar, primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion resulted in a greater risk of returning to the operating room in emergent cases (odds ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.74). CONCLUSION:Despite previous suggestions of clinical equipoise, the adoption of primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion for emergent, operatively managed acute diverticulitis among National Surgical Quality Improvement Program hospitals appears to be decreasing. Primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion resulted in increased return to the operating room for emergent cases, suggesting that caution should be exercised in selecting primary anastomosis with proximal small bowel diversion for emergent cases.

BACKGROUND:Falls are the leading source of injury and trauma-related hospital admissions for elderly adults in the USA. Elderly patients with a history of a fall have the highest risk of falling again, and the decision on whether to continue anticoagulation after a fall is difficult. To inform this decision, we evaluated the rate of recurrent falls and the impact of anticoagulation on outcomes. METHODS:All patients of age  ≥ 65 years and hospitalized for a fall in the first 6 months of 2013 and 2014 were identified in the nationwide readmission database, a nationally representative all-payer database tracking patient readmissions. Readmissions for a recurrent fall within 6 months, and mortality and bleeding injuries (intracranial hemorrhage, solid organ bleed, and hemothorax) during readmission were identified. Logistic regression evaluated factors associated with mortality on repeat falls. RESULTS:Of the 331,982 patients admitted for a fall, 15,565 (4.7%) were admitted for a recurrent fall within 6 months. The median time to repeat fall was 57 days (IQR 19-111 days), and 9.0% (1406) of repeat fallers were on anticoagulation. The rate of bleeding injury was similar regardless of anticoagulation status (12.8 vs. 12.7% not on anticoagulation, p = 0.97); however, among patients with a bleeding injury, those on anticoagulation had significantly higher mortality (21.5 vs. 6.9% not on anticoagulation, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION:Among patients hospitalized for a fall, 4.7% will be hospitalized for a recurrent fall within 6 months. Patients on anticoagulation with repeat falls do not have increased rates of bleeding injury but do have significantly higher rates of death with a bleeding injury. This information is essential to discuss with patients when deciding to restart their anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND:Under the Affordable Care Act, eligibility for Medicaid coverage was expanded to all adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level in states that participated. We sought to examine the national impact Medicaid expansion has had on insurance coverage for patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) and the cost burden to patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS:The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used to identify adults ≥18 y old who underwent the 10 most burdensome EGS operations (defined as a combination of frequency, cost, and morbidity). Distribution of insurance type before and after Medicaid expansion and charges to uninsured patients was evaluated. Weighted averages were used to produce nationally representative estimates. RESULTS:A total of 6,847,169 patients were included. The percentage of uninsured EGS patients changed from 9.4% the year before Medicaid expansion to 7.0% after (P < 0.01), whereas the percentage of patients on Medicaid increased from 16.4% to 19.4% (P < 0.01). The cumulative charges to uninsured patients for EGS decreased from $1590 million before expansion to $1211 million after. CONCLUSIONS:In the first year of Medicaid expansion, the number of uninsured EGS patients dropped by 2.4%. The cost burden to uninsured EGS patients decreased by over $300 million.

IMPORTANCE:Reliance on prescription opioids for postprocedural analgesia has contributed to the opioid epidemic. With the implementation of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, there has been increasing use of computerized order entry systems for medication prescriptions, which is now more common than handwritten prescriptions. The EMR can autopopulate a default number of pills prescribed, and 1 potential method to alter prescriber behavior is to change the default number presented via the EMR system. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the association of lowering the default number of pills presented when prescribing opioids in an EMR system with the amount of opioid prescribed after procedures. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:A prepost intervention study was conducted to compare postprocedural prescribing patterns during the 3 months before the default change (February 18 to May 17, 2017) with the 3 months after the default change (May 18 to August 18, 2017). The setting was a multihospital health care system that uses Epic EMR (Hyperspace 2015 IU2; Epic Systems Corporation). Participants were all patients in the study period undergoing 1 of the 10 most common operations and discharged by postoperative day 1. INTERVENTION:The default number of opioid pills autopopulated in the EMR when prescribing discharge analgesia was lowered from 30 to 12. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Linear regression estimating the change in the median number of opioid pills and the total dose of opioid prescribed was performed. Opioid doses were converted into morphine milligram equivalents (MME) for comparison. The frequency of patients requiring analgesic prescription refills was also evaluated. RESULTS:There were 1447 procedures (mean [SD] age, 54.4 [17.3] years; 66.9% female) before the default change and 1463 procedures (mean [SD] age, 54.5 [16.4] years; 67.0% female) after the default change. After the default change, the median number of opioid pills prescribed decreased from 30 (interquartile range, 15-30) to 20 (interquartile range, 12-30) per prescription (P < .001). The percentage of prescriptions written for 30 pills decreased from 39.7% (554 of 1397) before the default change to 12.9% (183 of 1420) after the default change (P < .001), and the percentage of prescriptions written for 12 pills increased from 2.1% (29 of 1397) before the default change to 24.6% (349 of 1420) after the default change (P < .001). Regression analysis demonstrated a decrease of 5.22 (95% CI, -6.12 to -4.32) opioid pills per prescription after the default change, for a total decrease of 34.41 (95% CI, -41.36 to -27.47) MME per prescription. There was no statistical difference in opioid refill rates (3.0% [4 of 135] before the default change vs 1.5% [2 of 135] after the default change, P = .41). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:Lowering the default number of opioid pills prescribed in an EMR system is a simple, effective, cheap, and potentially scalable intervention to change prescriber behavior and decrease the amount of opioid medication prescribed after procedures.

BACKGROUND:The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and ascites correlate with surgical morbidity and mortality. However, the MELD score does not account for ascites. We sought to evaluate whether the MELD score accurately risk stratifies patients with ascites. METHODS:We analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2005-2014) to examine the risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality of cirrhotic patients with and without ascites undergoing colectomy for diverticulitis. Patients were stratified by MELD score, and the presence of ascites and outcomes were compared between patients with and without ascites to the reference group of low MELD and no ascites. Multivariable logistic regression was used to control for demographic factors and comorbidities. RESULTS:A total of 16,877 colectomies were analyzed. For each MELD stratum, patients with ascites have increased risk of complications compared to those without ascites (P < 0.05 unless indicated): low MELD ascites OR 1.13, P = 0.69, moderate MELD no ascites OR 1.37, moderate MELD ascites OR 2.06, high MELD no ascites OR 1.93, and high MELD ascites OR 3.54. These trends hold true for mortality: low MELD ascites OR 2.91, P = 0.063, moderate MELD no ascites OR 1.47, moderate MELD ascites OR 5.62, high MELD no ascites OR 3.04, and high MELD ascites OR 9.91. CONCLUSION:Ascites predicts an increased risk for postoperative morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing colectomy for all MELD classifications. These findings suggest that the MELD score significantly underestimates postoperative risk as it does not account for ascites.

BACKGROUND:Ascites and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score have both been shown to independently correlate with surgical morbidity and mortality. We evaluated if incorporating the presence of ascites changed postoperative risk as assessed by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. METHODS:Data originated from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005-2014. Patients undergoing hernia repair, adhesiolysis, and cholecystectomy were included. Univariate analysis and logistic regression stratified by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and presence of ascites was performed. RESULTS:A total of 30,391 patients were analyzed. When compared to low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease stratum without ascites, the presence of ascites predicted increased risk for complications (low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence interval [2.00-5.18], moderate Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 3.70, 95% confidence interval [2.64-5.19], high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 6.38, 95% confidence interval [4.39-9.26]). These findings hold true for mortality as well (low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 9.40 95% confidence interval [3.53-25.01], moderate Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 15.24 95% confidence interval [8.17-28.45], high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 28.56 95% confidence interval [15.43-52.88]). CONCLUSIONS:Ascites increased the risk of morbidity and mortality across multiple general surgery operations. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease may underestimate surgical risk in patients with ascites. Predictive models inclusive of ascites may more accurately predict the perioperative risk of these complex patients.

BACKGROUND:There is evidence to suggest outcomes may be related to surgeon experience or skill level. Lower extremity amputations are performed by both general surgeons (GSs) and vascular surgeons (VSs); however, the effect of specialty on postoperative outcome in below-knee amputation is not known. This retrospective study compares outcomes in below-knee amputations (BKA) between VS and GS. METHODS:Patients who underwent below-knee amputations between 2005 and 2014 were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project database. Data collected included patient demographics, comorbid conditions, and indication for procedures. Univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression models and linear regression models were employed to evaluate the associations between various outcomes and indications for surgery, emergency and teaching status, and surgical specialty. RESULTS:Amputations performed by GSs experienced an increased risk of developing pneumonia (odds ratio [OR] = 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.86), pulmonary embolism (OR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.10-4.01), and sepsis (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05-1.59). When stratified by indications for BKA, similar outcomes were noted between GS and VS if indication for surgery was diabetes or peripheral vascular disease; however, there was increased risk of pneumonia (OR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.26-2.74), sepsis (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.39-2.75), and death (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.04-2.07, P = 0.027) when GS performed BKA for infectious indications. Overall complications were higher when GS performed BKA emergently (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:There are less postoperative complications when VSs performed BKA for infectious indications, during emergencies, and at nonteaching hospitals. Clinicians should consider vascular consultation for these specific scenarios.