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Dynamic prediction of renal survival among deeply phenotyped kidney transplant recipients using artificial intelligence: an observational, international, multicohort study

Raynaud, Marc; Aubert, Olivier; Divard, Gillian; Reese, Peter P; Kamar, Nassim; Yoo, Daniel; Chin, Chen-Shan; Bailly, Élodie; Buchler, Matthias; Ladrière, Marc; Le Quintrec, Moglie; Delahousse, Michel; Juric, Ivana; Basic-Jukic, Nikolina; Crespo, Marta; Silva, Helio Tedesco; Linhares, Kamilla; Ribeiro de Castro, Maria Cristina; Soler Pujol, Gervasio; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Ulloa, Camilo; Akalin, Enver; Böhmig, Georg; Huang, Edmund; Stegall, Mark D; Bentall, Andrew J; Montgomery, Robert A; Jordan, Stanley C; Oberbauer, Rainer; Segev, Dorry L; Friedewald, John J; Jouven, Xavier; Legendre, Christophe; Lefaucheur, Carmen; Loupy, Alexandre
BACKGROUND:Kidney allograft failure is a common cause of end-stage renal disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic artificial intelligence approach to enhance risk stratification for kidney transplant recipients by generating continuously refined predictions of survival using updates of clinical data. METHODS:In this observational study, we used data from adult recipients of kidney transplants from 18 academic transplant centres in Europe, the USA, and South America, and a cohort of patients from six randomised controlled trials. The development cohort comprised patients from four centres in France, with all other patients included in external validation cohorts. To build deeply phenotyped cohorts of transplant recipients, the following data were collected in the development cohort: clinical, histological, immunological variables, and repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria (measured using the proteinuria to creatininuria ratio). To develop a dynamic prediction system based on these clinical assessments and repeated measurements, we used a Bayesian joint models-an artificial intelligence approach. The prediction performances of the model were assessed via discrimination, through calculation of the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04258891. FINDINGS/RESULTS:13 608 patients were included (3774 in the development cohort and 9834 in the external validation cohorts) and contributed 89 328 patient-years of data, and 416 510 eGFR and proteinuria measurements. Bayesian joint models showed that recipient immunological profile, allograft interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy, allograft inflammation, and repeated measurements of eGFR and proteinuria were independent risk factors for allograft survival. The final model showed accurate calibration and very high discrimination in the development cohort (overall dynamic AUC 0·857 [95% CI 0·847-0·866]) with a persistent improvement in AUCs for each new repeated measurement (from 0·780 [0·768-0·794] to 0·926 [0·917-0·932]; p<0·0001). The predictive performance was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from Europe (overall AUC 0·845 [0·837-0·854]), the USA (overall AUC 0·820 [0·808-0·831]), South America (overall AUC 0·868 [0·856-0·880]), and the cohort of patients from randomised controlled trials (overall AUC 0·857 [0·840-0·875]). INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:Because of its dynamic design, this model can be continuously updated and holds value as a bedside tool that could refine the prognostic judgements of clinicians in everyday practice, hence enhancing precision medicine in the transplant setting. FUNDING/BACKGROUND:MSD Avenir, French National Institute for Health and Medical Research, and Bettencourt Schueller Foundation.
PMID: 34756569
ISSN: 2589-7500
CID: 5050482

Imlifidase Desensitization in Crossmatch-positive, Highly Sensitized Kidney Transplant Recipients: Results of an International Phase 2 Trial (Highdes)

Jordan, Stanley C; Legendre, Christophe; Desai, Niraj M; Lorant, Tomas; Bengtsson, Mats; Lonze, Bonnie E; Vo, Ashley A; Runström, Anna; Laxmyr, Lena; Sjöholm, Kristoffer; Schiött, Ã…sa; Sonesson, Elisabeth; Wood, Kathryn; Winstedt, Lena; Kjellman, Christian; Montgomery, Robert A
BACKGROUND:Highly HLA sensitized patients have limited access to life-saving kidney transplantation because of a paucity of immunologically suitable donors. Imlifidase is a cysteine protease that cleaves IgG leading to a rapid decrease in antibody level and inhibition of IgG-mediated injury. This study investigates the efficacy and safety of imlifidase in converting a positive crossmatch test to negative, allowing highly sensitized patients to be transplanted with a living or deceased donor kidney. METHODS:This open-label, single-arm, phase 2 trial conducted at 5 transplant centers, evaluated the ability of imlifidase to create a negative crossmatch test within 24 h. Secondary endpoints included postimlifidase donor-specific antibody levels compared with predose levels, renal function, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic profiles. Safety endpoints included adverse events and immunogenicity profile. RESULTS:Of the transplanted patients, 89.5% demonstrated conversion of baseline positive crossmatch to negative within 24 h after imlifidase treatment. Donor-specific antibodies most often rebounded 3-14 d postimlifidase dose, with substantial interpatient variability. Patient survival was 100% with graft survival of 88.9% at 6 mo. With this, 38.9% had early biopsy proven antibody-mediated rejection with onset 2-19 d posttransplantation. Serum IgG levels began to normalize after ~3-7 d posttransplantation. Antidrug antibody levels were consistent with previous studies. Seven adverse events in 6 patients were classified as possibly or probably related to treatment and were mild-moderate in severity. CONCLUSIONS:Imlifidase was well tolerated, converted positive crossmatches to negative, and enabled patients with a median calculated panel-reactive antibody of 99.83% to undergo kidney transplantation resulting in good kidney function and graft survival at 6 mo.
PMID: 33093408
ISSN: 1534-6080
CID: 5003552

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination, Immune Responses, and Antibody Testing in Immunosuppressed Populations: Tip of the Iceberg [Comment]

Woodle, E Steve; Gebel, Howard M; Montgomery, Robert A; Maltzman, Jonathan S
PMID: 34144554
ISSN: 1534-6080
CID: 4995322

Outcomes at 3 years post-transplant in imlifidase-desensitized kidney transplant patients

Kjellman, Christian; Maldonado, Angela Q; Sjöholm, Kristoffer; Lonze, Bonnie E; Montgomery, Robert A; Runström, Anna; Lorant, Tomas; Desai, Niraj M; Legendre, Christophe; Lundgren, Torbjörn; von Zur Mühlen, Bengt; Vo, Ashley A; Olsson, HÃ¥kan; Jordan, Stanley C
Imlifidase is a cysteine proteinase which specifically cleaves IgG, inhibiting Fc-mediated effector function within hours of administration. Imlifidase converts a positive crossmatch to a potential donor (T cell, B cell, or both), to negative, enabling transplantation to occur between previously HLA incompatible donor-recipient pairs. To date, 39 crossmatch positive patients received imlifidase prior to a kidney transplant in four single-arm, open-label, phase 2 studies. At 3 years, for patients who were AMR+ compared to AMR-, death-censored allograft survival was 93% vs 77%, patient survival was 85% vs 94%, and mean eGFR was 49 ml/min/1.73 m2 vs 61 ml/min/1.73 m2 , respectively. The incidence of AMR was 38% with most episodes occurring within the first month post-transplantation. Sub-analysis of patients deemed highly sensitized with cPRA ≥ 99.9%, and unlikely to be transplanted who received crossmatch-positive, deceased donor transplants had similar rates of patient survival, graft survival, and eGFR but a higher rate of AMR. These data demonstrate that outcomes and safety up to 3 years in recipients of imlifidase-enabled allografts is comparable to outcomes in other highly sensitized patients undergoing HLA-incompatible transplantation. Thus, imlifidase is a potent option to facilitate transplantation among patients who have a significant immunologic barrier to successful kidney transplantation. Clinical Trial: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02790437), EudraCT Number: 2016-002064-13.
PMID: 34236770
ISSN: 1600-6143
CID: 4951052

Impact of the 2014 kidney allocation system changes on trends in A2/A2B into B kidney transplantation and organ procurement organization reporting of donor subtyping

Stern, Jeffrey; Alnazari, Nasser; Tatapudi, Vasishta S; Ali, Nicole M; Stewart, Zoe A; Montgomery, Robert A; Lonze, Bonnie E
The current kidney allocation system (KAS) preferentially allocates kidneys from blood type A2 or A2B (A/A2B) donors to blood type B candidates. We used national data to evaluate center-level performance of A2/A2B to B transplants, and organ procurement organization (OPO) reporting of type A or AB donor subtyping, in 5-year time periods prior to (2009-2014) and following (2015-2019) KAS implementation. The number of centers performing A2/A2B to B transplants increased from 17 pre-KAS to 76 post-KAS, though this still represents only a minority of centers (7.3% pre-KAS and 32.6% post-KAS). For high-performing centers, the median net increase in A2/A2B to B transplants was 19 cases (range -2-72) per center in the 5 years post-KAS. The median net increase in total B recipient transplants was 21 cases (range -17-119) per center. Despite requirements for performance of subtyping, in 2019 subtyping was reported on only 56.4% of A/AB donors. This translates into potential missed opportunities for B recipients, and even post-KAS up to 2322 A2/A2B donor kidneys may have been allocated for transplantation as A/AB. Further progress must be made both at center and OPO levels to broaden implementation of A2/A2B to B transplants for the benefit of underserved recipients.
PMID: 34165821
ISSN: 1399-0012
CID: 4934142

The Importance of Bringing Transplantation Tolerance to the Clinic

Cosimi, A Benedict; Ascher, Nancy L; Emond, Jean C; Kaufman, Dixon B; Madsen, Joren C; Miller, Joshua; Monaco, Anthony P; Montgomery, Robert A; Newell, Kenneth A; Sánchez-Fueyo, Alberto; Sarwal, Minnie M; Scandling, John D; Strober, Samuel; Todo, Satoru; Weir, Matthew R; Sachs, David H
PMID: 33901128
ISSN: 1534-6080
CID: 4873722

Early detection of SARS-CoV-2 and other infections in solid organ transplant recipients and household members using wearable devices

Keating, Brendan J; Mukhtar, Eyas H; Elftmann, Eric D; Eweje, Feyisope R; Gao, Hui; Ibrahim, Lina I; Kathawate, Ranganath G; Lee, Alexander C; Li, Eric H; Moore, Krista A; Nair, Nikhil; Chaluvadi, Venkata; Reason, Janaiya; Zanoni, Francesca; Honkala, Alexander T; Al-Ali, Amein K; Abdullah Alrubaish, Fatima; Ahmad Al-Mozaini, Maha; Al-Muhanna, Fahad A; Al-Romaih, Khaldoun; Goldfarb, Samuel B; Kellogg, Ryan; Kiryluk, Krzysztof; Kizilbash, Sarah J; Kohut, Taisa J; Kumar, Juhi; O'Connor, Matthew J; Rand, Elizabeth B; Redfield, Robert R; Rolnik, Benjamin; Rossano, Joseph; Sanchez, Pablo G; Alavi, Arash; Bahmani, Amir; Bogu, Gireesh K; Brooks, Andrew W; Metwally, Ahmed A; Mishra, Tejas; Marks, Stephen D; Montgomery, Robert A; Fishman, Jay A; Amaral, Sandra; Jacobson, Pamala A; Wang, Meng; Snyder, Michael P
The increasing global prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting COVID-19 disease pandemic pose significant concerns for clinical management of solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR). Wearable devices that can measure physiologic changes in biometrics including heart rate, heart rate variability, body temperature, respiratory, activity (such as steps taken per day) and sleep patterns, and blood oxygen saturation show utility for the early detection of infection before clinical presentation of symptoms. Recent algorithms developed using preliminary wearable datasets show that SARS-CoV-2 is detectable before clinical symptoms in >80% of adults. Early detection of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and other pathogens in SOTR, and their household members, could facilitate early interventions such as self-isolation and early clinical management of relevant infection(s). Ongoing studies testing the utility of wearable devices such as smartwatches for early detection of SARS-CoV-2 and other infections in the general population are reviewed here, along with the practical challenges to implementing these processes at scale in pediatric and adult SOTR, and their household members. The resources and logistics, including transplant-specific analyses pipelines to account for confounders such as polypharmacy and comorbidities, required in studies of pediatric and adult SOTR for the robust early detection of SARS-CoV-2, and other infections are also reviewed.
PMID: 33735480
ISSN: 1432-2277
CID: 4873672

Delayed graft function and acute rejection following HLA-incompatible living donor kidney transplantation

Motter, Jennifer D; Jackson, Kyle R; Long, Jane J; Waldram, Madeleine M; Orandi, Babak J; Montgomery, Robert A; Stegall, Mark D; Jordan, Stanley C; Benedetti, Enrico; Dunn, Ty B; Ratner, Lloyd E; Kapur, Sandip; Pelletier, Ronald P; Roberts, John P; Melcher, Marc L; Singh, Pooja; Sudan, Debra L; Posner, Marc P; El-Amm, Jose M; Shapiro, Ron; Cooper, Matthew; Verbesey, Jennifer E; Lipkowitz, George S; Rees, Michael A; Marsh, Christopher L; Sankari, Bashir R; Gerber, David A; Wellen, Jason R; Bozorgzadeh, Adel; Gaber, A Osama; Heher, Eliot C; Weng, Francis L; Djamali, Arjang; Helderman, J Harold; Concepcion, Beatrice P; Brayman, Kenneth L; Oberholzer, Jose; Kozlowski, Tomasz; Covarrubias, Karina; Massie, Allan B; Segev, Dorry L; Garonzik-Wang, Jacqueline M
Incompatible living donor kidney transplant recipients (ILDKTr) have pre-existing donor-specific antibody (DSA) that, despite desensitization, may persist or reappear with resulting consequences, including delayed graft function (DGF) and acute rejection (AR). To quantify the risk of DGF and AR in ILDKT and downstream effects, we compared 1406 ILDKTr to 17 542 compatible LDKT recipients (CLDKTr) using a 25-center cohort with novel SRTR linkage. We characterized DSA strength as positive Luminex, negative flow crossmatch (PLNF); positive flow, negative cytotoxic crossmatch (PFNC); or positive cytotoxic crossmatch (PCC). DGF occurred in 3.1% of CLDKT, 3.5% of PLNF, 5.7% of PFNC, and 7.6% of PCC recipients, which translated to higher DGF for PCC recipients (aOR = 1.03 1.682.72 ). However, the impact of DGF on mortality and DCGF risk was no higher for ILDKT than CLDKT (p interaction > .1). AR developed in 8.4% of CLDKT, 18.2% of PLNF, 21.3% of PFNC, and 21.7% of PCC recipients, which translated to higher AR (aOR PLNF = 1.45 2.093.02 ; PFNC = 1.67 2.403.46 ; PCC = 1.48 2.243.37 ). Although the impact of AR on mortality was no higher for ILDKT than CLDKT (p interaction = .1), its impact on DCGF risk was less consequential for ILDKT (aHR = 1.34 1.621.95 ) than CLDKT (aHR = 1.96 2.292.67 ) (p interaction = .004). Providers should consider these risks during preoperative counseling, and strategies to mitigate them should be considered.
PMID: 33370502
ISSN: 1600-6143
CID: 4815272

Trajectories of glomerular filtration rate and progression to end stage kidney disease after kidney transplantation

Raynaud, Marc; Aubert, Olivier; Reese, Peter P; Bouatou, Yassine; Naesens, Maarten; Kamar, Nassim; Bailly, Élodie; Giral, Magali; Ladrière, Marc; Le Quintrec, Moglie; Delahousse, Michel; Juric, Ivana; Basic-Jukic, Nikolina; Gupta, Gaurav; Akalin, Enver; Yoo, Daniel; Chin, Chen-Shan; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Böhmig, Georg; Oberbauer, Rainer; Stegall, Mark D; Bentall, Andrew J; Jordan, Stanley C; Huang, Edmund; Glotz, Denis; Legendre, Christophe; Montgomery, Robert A; Segev, Dorry L; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Jouven, Xavier; Lefaucheur, Carmen; Loupy, Alexandre
Although the gold standard of monitoring kidney transplant function relies on glomerular filtration rate (GFR), little is known about GFR trajectories after transplantation, their determinants, and their association with outcomes. To evaluate these parameters we examined kidney transplant recipients receiving care at 15 academic centers. Patients underwent prospective monitoring of estimated GFR (eGFR) measurements, with assessment of clinical, functional, histological and immunological parameters. Additional validation took place in seven randomized controlled trials that included a total of 14,132 patients with 403,497 eGFR measurements. After a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 1,688 patients developed end-stage kidney disease. Using unsupervised latent class mixed models, we identified eight distinct eGFR trajectories. Multinomial regression models identified seven significant determinants of eGFR trajectories including donor age, eGFR, proteinuria, and several significant histological features: graft scarring, graft interstitial inflammation and tubulitis, microcirculation inflammation, and circulating anti-HLA donor specific antibodies. The eGFR trajectories were associated with progression to end stage kidney disease. These trajectories, their determinants and respective associations with end stage kidney disease were similar across cohorts, as well as in diverse clinical scenarios, therapeutic eras and in the seven randomized control trials. Thus, our results provide the basis for a trajectory-based assessment of kidney transplant patients for risk stratification and monitoring.
PMID: 32781106
ISSN: 1523-1755
CID: 4756732

Pancreas Transplantation from Hepatitis C Viremic Donors to Uninfected Recipients

Lonze, Bonnie E; Baptiste, Gillian; Ali, Nicole M; Dagher, Nabil N; Gelb, Bruce E; Mattoo, Aprajita; Soomro, Irfana; Tatapudi, Vashista S; Montgomery, Robert A; Stewart, Zoe A
Despite utilization of hepatitis C viremic organs for hepatitis C naïve recipients (HCV D+/R-) in other solid organ transplants, HCV viremic pancreata remain an unexplored source of donor organs. This study reports the first series of HCV D+/R- pancreas transplants. HCV D+/R- had shorter wait list times compared to HCV D-/R-, waiting a mean of 16 days from listing for HCV positive organs. HCV D+/R- had a lower match allocation sequence than HCV D-/R-, and this correlated to receipt of organs with a lower Pancreas Donor Risk Index (PDRI) score. All HCV D+R- had excellent graft function with a mean follow up of 438 days and had undetectable HCV RNA levels by a mean of 23 days after initiation of HCV-directed therapy. The rates of infectious complications, re-operation, readmission, rejection, and length of stay were not impacted by donor HCV status. A national review of potential ideal pancreas donors found that 37% of ideal HCV negative pancreas allografts were transplanted, compared to only 5% of ideal HCV positive pancreas allografts. The results of the current study demonstrate the safety of accepting HCV positive pancreata for HCV naïve recipients and advocates for increased utilization of ideal HCV positive pancreas allografts.
PMID: 33346951
ISSN: 1600-6143
CID: 4726692