Faculty Bibliography

We describe a selection process for a multivariable risk prediction model of death within 30 days of hospital discharge in the SILVER-AMI study. This large, multi-site observational study included observational data from 2000 persons 75 years and older hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 94 community and academic hospitals across the United States and featured a large number of candidate variables from demographic, cardiac, and geriatric domains, whose missing values were multiply imputed prior to model selection. Our objective was to demonstrate that Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) represents a viable model selection approach in this context. BMA was compared to three other backward-selection approaches: Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and traditional p-value. Traditional backward-selection was used to choose 20 candidate variables from the initial, larger pool of five imputations. Models were subsequently chosen from those candidates using the four approaches on each of 10 imputations. With average posterior effect probability ≥ 50% as the selection criterion, BMA chose the most parsimonious model with four variables, with average C statistic of 78%, good calibration, optimism of 1.3%, and heuristic shrinkage of 0.93. These findings illustrate the utility and flexibility of using BMA for selecting a multivariable risk prediction model from many candidates over multiply imputed datasets.

Real-world outcomes in patients with chronic stable angina treated with ranolazine and other antianginal medications as second- or third-line therapy are limited. In a historical cohort study of veterans with chronic stable angina, we compared time with coronary revascularization procedures, hospitalizations, and 1-year healthcare costs between new-users of ranolazine versus conventional antianginals (i.e., calcium channel blockers, β blockers, or long-acting nitrates) as second- or third-line. Weighted regression models calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) at up to 8-year follow-up, and adjusted incremental costs in the first year. Weighted groups comprised 4,699 ranolazine users and 31,815 conventional antianginal users. Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) occurred more often in ranolazine users compared with conventional antianginal users (HR 1.16; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.08 to 1.25, p <0.001), and coronary artery bypass grafting occurred less often (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.68 to 1.00, p <0.046). All-cause and atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalizations were less common with ranolazine users compared with conventional users (all-cause: HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.90 to 0.99, p <0.010; AF:HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.82, p <0.001), and acute coronary syndrome was more common (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.27, p <0.042). Adjusted 1-year costs were $24,517 in ranolazine users and $24,798 in conventional users (difference, $-280; 95% CI $-1,742 to $1,181, p = 0.71). In conclusion, ranolazine users had lower rates of coronary artery bypass grafting and all-cause and AF hospitalizations, but higher rates of percutaneous coronary intervention and hospitalizations due to acute coronary syndrome compared with conventional antianginal users. Healthcare costs were similar between ranolazine and conventional antianginal users.

BACKGROUND:Studies have demonstrated the value of transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE) diastolic parameters in predicting left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus; however, these studies have been small. We aim to clarify the relationship between TTE diastolic parameters, in particular average e', and LAA thrombus or sludge. METHODS:A case-control review was conducted of subjects with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (n = 2263) who had undergone TEE (transesophageal echocardiogram) and had a TTE within 1 year of TEE. Cases of LAA sludge or thrombus were matched to controls by age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and anticoagulation status. RESULTS:Forty-three subjects (mean age 73 ± 12, 65% male, LVEF 47%, 44% on anticoagulation) with LAA sludge or thrombus were identified. Compared to matched controls, average TTE e' (7.3 ± 2.1 cm/s vs 8.7 ± 2.1 cm/s, P < 0.001) and the E:e' ratio (15 ± 7 cm/s vs 12 ± 5 cm/s; P = 0.005) were significant predictors of LAA sludge or thrombus. Average TTE e' value of >11 cm/s had 100% sensitivity for ruling out LAA sludge or thrombus. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:In individuals with atrial fibrillation, average e' >11 cm/s on TTE is a promising independent predictor of the absence of LAA sludge or thrombus on TEE.

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to determine whether frailty is associated with increased bleeding risk in the setting of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). BACKGROUND:Frailty is a common syndrome in older adults. METHODS:Frailty was examined among AMI patients ≥65 years of age treated at 775 U.S. hospitals participating in the ACTION (Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network) Registry from January 2015 to December 2016. Frailty was classified on the basis of impairments in 3 domains: walking (unassisted, assisted, wheelchair/nonambulatory), cognition (normal, mildly impaired, moderately/severely impaired), and activities of daily living. Impairment in each domain was scored as 0, 1, or 2, and a summary variable consisting of 3 categories was then created: 0 (fit/well), 1 to 2 (vulnerable/mild frailty), and 3 to 6 (moderate-to-severe frailty). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between frailty and bleeding. RESULTS:Among 129,330 AMI patients, 16.4% had any frailty. Frail patients were older, more often female, and were less likely to undergo cardiac catheterization. Major bleeding increased across categories of frailty (fit/well 6.5%; vulnerable/mild frailty 9.4%; moderate-to-severe frailty 9.9%; p < 0.001). Among patients who underwent catheterization, both frailty categories were independently associated with bleeding risk compared with the non-frail group (vulnerable/mild frailty adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23 to 1.44; moderate-to-severe frailty adjusted OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.58). Among patients managed conservatively, there was no association of frailty with bleeding (vulnerable/mild frailty adjusted OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.19; moderate-to-severe frailty adjusted OR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.81 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS:Frail patients had lower use of cardiac catheterization and higher risk of major bleeding (when catheterization was performed) than nonfrail patients, making attention to clinical strategies to avoid bleeding imperative in this population.

More than 13 million persons in the United States aged 65 and older have cardiovascular disease (CVD), and this population is expected to increase exponentially over the next several decades. In the absence of clinical studies that would inform how best to manage this population, there is an urgent need for collaborative, thoughtful approaches to their care. Although cardiologists are traditionally regarded as leaders in the care of older adults with CVD, these individuals have multiple comorbidities, physiological differences, and distinct goals of care than younger patients that require a specialized geriatric lens. Thus, collaboration is needed between geriatricians, cardiologists, and other specialists to address the unique needs of this growing population. Accordingly, clinicians at New York University Langone Health and School of Medicine established a monthly Geriatric Cardiology Conference to foster an integrative approach to the care of older adults with CVD by uniting specialists across disciplines to collaborate on treatment strategies. At each conference, an active case is discussed and analyzed in detail, and a consensus is reached among participants regarding optimal treatment strategies. The conference attracts faculty and trainees at multiple levels from geriatrics, cardiology, and cardiothoracic surgery. The model may serve as a paradigm for other institutions moving towards geriatric-informed care of older adults with CVD.

Background/Introduction: The 2016 ESC Guideline on the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute and Chronic Heart Failure endorsed sacubitril/valsartan (S/V) as class I-B treatment for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction(HFrEF) based on the PARADIGM-HF trial. Data on characteristics of S/V initiators and S/V adherence among renin-angiotensin aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi)-nai ve patients treated in the community are limited. Purpose: Determine associated baseline patient and healthcare facility characteristics and medication adherence of S/V vs angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) in RAASi-naive HFrEF patients. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of U.S. Veterans Affairs (VA) data including HFrEF ( = 1 record of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) = 40%) patients with = 1 in/outpatient visit for HF within 1-year pre-index (baseline period) treated with S/V, ACEI, or ARB from July 2015-June 2017. The index date was first S/V pharmacy fill and if none, first ACEI or ARB fill. RAASi-naive defined as no S/V, ACEI, or ARB fills during the baseline period. Poisson regression models with robust errors were used to compare baseline characteristics and 4-month medication adherence (i.e. follow-up fills, proportion of days covered [PDC], and discontinuation) for S/V vs ACEI or ARB. Medication adherence comparisons were adjusted for baseline characteristics using matching weights. Results: Among RAASi-naive HFrEF Veterans (N = 10,743),most (97.5%)weremale and 371 (3.5%) had an S/V pharmacy fill and 10,372 (96.5%) had an ACEI or ARB fill on the index date. Mean (standard deviation) baseline age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and LVEF in S/V vs ACEI or ARB initiators were 73.6 (10.7) vs 70.3 (11.4) years, 61.3 (19.1) vs 66.4 (25.2) mL/min/1.73 m2, and 27.9% (8.3%) vs 34.4% (12.0%), respectively. History of ischemic cardiomyopathy was associated with S/V vs ACEI or ARB initiation. Veterans with lower systolic blood pressure, history of stroke, hypertension, myocardial infarction, or a visit with a Cardiologist on the index date were less likely to initiate S/V. In Veterans with a 30 day-supply index fill (N = 251 S/V and N = 3,101 ACEI or ARB) the adjusted risk ratio for 4-month PDC >80% was 0.78, 95% (confidence interval: 0.66-0.93) for S/V vs ACEI or ARB. Follow-up fills and discontinuation were similar for S/V vs ACEI or ARB. Adherence was similar for S/V vs ACEI or ARB among Veterans with a 90 day-supply. Conclusions: In a large, integrated healthcare system, 3.5% RAASi-naive HFrEF patients initiated S/V during the first 2-years post U.S. FDA approval. Overall, our findings suggest that S/V adherence is similar to ACEI or ARB in community-treated RAASi-naive HFrEF patients. The low numbers of S/V initiation may reflect a lag in formulary availability; S/V was added to the VA Formulary in October 2016. The reasons for lack of guideline-directed S/V initiation needs further elucidation