Faculty Bibliography

The recent CMS conditions of participation are based on risk-adjusted models produced by the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients (SRTR). The accuracy of these models in identifying poor-performing centers is unknown. In this stochastic simulation study, 1-year mortality outcomes were simulated in virtual transplant centers, and used to flag centers according to the methods used by CMS, evaluating nine overlapping 2.5-year periods of simulated data. In a simulation where all centers had the same underlying risk, 10.2% were falsely flagged at least once during the 4.5 years of simulated evaluations. The probability of false-positive flagging was lowest in low-volume centers (2.5%) and highest in high-volume centers (16.2%). In another simulation where 5% of centers were assigned twofold risk ("poor-performing centers"), only 32% of poor-performing centers were correctly flagged. In a final simulation where each center was assigned a unique mortality risk, 94% of flagged centers had greater-than-median risk, but only 32% of flagged centers were among the 5% with highest risk. Even after disregarding known covariate limitations to the risk adjustment models, statistical noise alone leads to spurious flagging of many adequately-performing transplant centers, yet the methods used by CMS fail to flag most centers with true elevated risk.

Severe geographic disparities exist in liver transplantation; for patients with comparable disease severity, 90-day transplant rates range from 18% to 86% and death rates range from 14% to 82% across donation service areas (DSAs). Broader sharing has been proposed to resolve geographic inequity; however, we hypothesized that the efficacy of broader sharing depends on the geographic partitions used. To determine the potential impact of redistricting on geographic disparity in disease severity at transplantation, we combined existing DSAs into novel regions using mathematical redistricting optimization. Optimized maps and current maps were evaluated using the Liver Simulated Allocation Model. Primary analysis was based on 6700 deceased donors, 28 063 liver transplant candidates, and 242 727 Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) changes in 2010. Fully regional sharing within the current regional map would paradoxically worsen geographic disparity (variance in MELD at transplantation increases from 11.2 to 13.5, p = 0.021), although it would decrease waitlist deaths (from 1368 to 1329, p = 0.002). In contrast, regional sharing within an optimized map would significantly reduce geographic disparity (to 7.0, p = 0.002) while achieving a larger decrease in waitlist deaths (to 1307, p = 0.002). Redistricting optimization, but not broader sharing alone, would reduce geographic disparity in allocation of livers for transplant across the United States.

Early hospital readmission (EHR) after kidney transplantation (KT) is associated with increased morbidity and higher costs. Registry-based recipient, transplant and center-level predictors of EHR are limited, and novel predictors are needed. We hypothesized that frailty, a measure of physiologic reserve initially described and validated in geriatrics and recently associated with early KT outcomes, might serve as a novel, independent predictor of EHR in KT recipients of all ages. We measured frailty in 383 KT recipients at Johns Hopkins Hospital. EHR was ascertained from medical records as ≥1 hospitalization within 30 days of initial post-KT discharge. Frail KT recipients were much more likely to experience EHR (45.8% vs. 28.0%, p = 0.005), regardless of age. After adjusting for previously described registry-based risk factors, frailty independently predicted 61% higher risk of EHR (adjusted RR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.18-2.19, p = 0.002). In addition, frailty improved EHR risk prediction by improving the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (p = 0.01) as well as the net reclassification index (p = 0.04). Identifying frail KT recipients for targeted outpatient monitoring and intervention may reduce EHR rates.

BACKGROUND: More than 25% of pediatric kidney transplants are lost within 7 years, necessitating dialysis or retransplantation. Retransplantation practices and the outcomes of repeat transplantations, particularly among those with early graft loss, are not clear. METHODS: We examined retransplantation practice patterns and outcomes in 14,799 pediatric (ages <18 years) patients between 1987 and 2010. Death-censored graft survival was analyzed using extended Cox models and retransplantation using competing risks regression. RESULTS: After the first graft failure, 50.4% underwent retransplantation and 12.1% died within 5 years; after the second graft failure, 36.1% underwent retransplantation and 15.4% died within 5 years. Prior preemptive transplantation and graft loss after 5 years were associated with increased rates of retransplantation. Graft loss before 5 years, older age, non-Caucasian race, public insurance, and increased panel-reactive antibody were associated with decreased rates of retransplantation. First transplants had lower risk of graft loss compared with second (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.80; P<0.001), third (aHR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78; P<0.001), and fourth (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.24-0.78; P=0.005) transplants. However, among patients receiving two or more transplants (conditioned on having lost a first transplant), second graft median survival was 8.5 years despite a median survival of 4.5 years for the first transplant. Among patients receiving three or more transplants, third graft median survival was 7.7 years despite median survivals of 2.1 and 3.1 years for the first and second transplants. CONCLUSIONS: Among pediatric kidney transplant recipients who experience graft loss, racial and socioeconomic disparities exist with regard to retransplantation, and excellent graft survival can be achieved with retransplantation despite poor survival of previous grafts.

BACKGROUND:Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. METHODS:The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987-1999 and 2000-2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. RESULTS:Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs. 4.2%; P = .006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs. 31.9%; P < .001). From 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was highest at extremes of age, especially in thoracic organ recipients (ages 0-34 years: range, 1.74%-3.28%; aged >50 years; range, 0.36%-2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%-1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%-0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%-3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%-0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast cancer was similar or lower in transplantation recipients than at the recommended ages of screening in the general population. CONCLUSIONS:Subgroups of transplantation recipients have a high absolute risk of some cancers and may benefit from targeted prevention or screening.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE:The risk of graft loss after pediatric kidney transplantation increases during late adolescence and early adulthood, but the extent to which this phenomenon affects all recipients is unknown. This study explored interactions between recipient factors and this high-risk age window, searching for a recipient phenotype that may be less susceptible during this detrimental age interval. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:With use of Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from 1987 to 2010, risk of graft loss across recipient age was quantified using a multivariable piecewise-constant hazard rate model with time-varying coefficients for recipient risk factors. RESULTS:Among 16,266 recipients, graft loss during ages ≥17 and <24 years was greater than that for both 3-17 years (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.61; P<0.001) and ≥24 years (aHR, 1.28; P<0.001). This finding was consistent across age at transplantation, sex, race, cause of renal disease, insurance type, pretransplant dialysis history, previous transplant, peak panel-reactive antibody (PRA), and type of induction immunosuppression. The high-risk window was seen in both living-donor and deceased-donor transplant recipients, at all levels of HLA mismatch, regardless of centers' pediatric transplant volume, and consistently over time. The relationship between graft loss risk and donor type, PRA, transplant history, insurance type, and cause of renal disease was diminished upon entry into the high-risk window. CONCLUSIONS:No recipient subgroups are exempt from the dramatic increase in graft loss during late adolescence and early adulthood, a high-risk window that modifies the relationship between typical recipient risk factors and graft loss.

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:To quantify the prevalence of frailty in adults of all ages undergoing chronic hemodialysis, its relationship to comorbidity and disability, and its association with adverse outcomes of mortality and hospitalization. DESIGN/METHODS:Prospective cohort study. SETTING/METHODS:Single hemodialysis center in Baltimore, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:One hundred forty-six individuals undergoing hemodialysis enrolled between January 2009 and March 2010 and followed through August 2012. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Frailty, comorbidity, and disability on enrollment in the study and subsequent mortality and hospitalizations. RESULTS:At enrollment, 50.0% of older (≥ 65) and 35.4% of younger (<65) individuals undergoing hemodialysis were frail; 35.9% and 29.3%, respectively, were intermediately frail. Three-year mortality was 16.2% for nonfrail, 34.4% for intermediately frail, and 40.2% for frail participants. Intermediate frailty and frailty were associated with a 2.7 times (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-7.07, P = .046) and 2.6 times (95% CI = 1.04-6.49, P = .04) greater risk of death independent of age, sex, comorbidity, and disability. In the year after enrollment, median number of hospitalizations was 1 (interquartile range 0-3). The proportion with two or more hospitalizations was 28.2% for nonfrail, 25.5% for intermediately frail, and 42.6% for frail participants. Although intermediate frailty was not associated with number of hospitalizations (relative risk = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.49-1.16, P = .21), frailty was associated with 1.4 times (95% CI = 1.00-2.03, P = .049) more hospitalizations independent of age, sex, comorbidity, and disability. The association between frailty and mortality (interaction P = .64) and hospitalizations (P = .14) did not differ between older and younger participants. CONCLUSIONS:Adults of all ages undergoing hemodialysis have a high prevalence of frailty, more than five times as high as community-dwelling older adults. In this population, regardless of age, frailty is a strong, independent predictor of mortality and number of hospitalizations.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Sirolimus has inhibitory effects on epithelial healing and cholangiocyte regeneration. In liver transplantation (LT) patients, these effects may be greatest at the biliary anastomosis. We therefore investigated whether sirolimus use is associated with need for early or emergent repeat therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) in LT patients with anastomotic biliary stricture (ABS). MATERIAL AND METHODS/METHODS:Medical records of patients who underwent LT from 1998-2009 at Johns Hopkins were reviewed and patients with ABS identified. Primary outcome was early repeat ERC, defined as need for unscheduled (i.e. unplanned) or emergent repeat therapeutic ERC. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses (adjusting for age, sex, LT to ERC time, and stent number) were performed to assess association between sirolimus and early repeat ERC. RESULTS:45 patients developed ABS and underwent 156 ERCs total. Early (median 26 days) repeat ERC occurred in 14/56 (25%) and 6/100 (6%) ERCs performed with and without concomitant sirolimus-based immunosuppression, respectively (OR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02-1.45; p = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, sirolimus use was associated with early repeat ERC (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.04-1.47; p = 0.015); this association remained significant when sirolimus dose was modeled as a continuous variable (OR 1.04 for each mg of sirolimus per day; 95% CI 1.02-1.08; p = 0.038). CONCLUSIONS:Sirolimus-based immunosuppression appears to be associated with a modest but significantly increased, dose-dependent risk of early repeat ERC in LT patients with ABS. Prospective studies are needed to further investigate these findings and determine if sirolimus use or dose should potentially be reconsidered once ABS is diagnosed.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE:Living donor kidney transplantation is encouraged for children with end-stage renal disease given the superior survival of living donor grafts, but pediatric candidates are also given preference for kidneys from younger deceased donors. METHODS:Death-censored graft survival of pediatric kidney-only transplants performed in the U.S. between 1987-2012 was compared across living related (LRRT) (n=7741), living unrelated (LURT) (n=618), and deceased donor renal transplants (DDRT) (n=8945) using Kaplan-Meier analysis, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, and matched controls analysis. RESULTS:As expected, HLA mismatch was greater among LURT compared to LRRT (p<0.001). Unadjusted graft survival was lower, particularly long-term, for LURT compared to LRRT (p=0.009). However, LURT graft survival was still superior to DDRT graft survival, even when compared only to deceased donors under age 35 (p=0.002). The difference in graft survival between LURT and LRRT was not seen when adjusting for HLA mismatch, year of transplantation, and donor and recipient characteristics using a Cox model (aHR=1.04, 95% CI: 0.87-1.24, p=0.7) or matched controls (HR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.82-1.27, p=0.9). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Survival of LURT grafts is superior to grafts from younger deceased donors and equivalent to LRRT grafts when adjusting for other factors, most notably differences in HLA mismatch.