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Association Between All-Cause Mortality and Locally-Defined Extreme Heat Events: A Global Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Al Ali, Hannah; Tesfaldet, Yacob T; Bershteyn, Anna; Mukandavire, Zindoga; Azan, Alexander; Salari, Nader; Daneshkhah, Alireza
Extreme heat events are a growing health threat, but their impact is heterogeneous because different settings have different levels of heat adaptation. Previous reviews have assessed morbidity and mortality as a function of meteorological conditions such as air temperature. We aimed to conduct the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between meeting local definitions of extreme heat events and risks of hospitalization and mortality overall and by population segment. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar on February 05, 2025, with no restrictions on language or publication date. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment were conducted by multiple reviewers. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) for hospitalization and mortality when meeting local definitions of extreme heat events using a random effects model to account for heterogeneity. In subgroup analysis, we examined variations by date, global region, country income group, extreme heat event definition type (absolute thresholds, percentile-based, composite indices), and population characteristics including age, socioeconomic context, and urban versus rural settings. In sensitivity analysis, we assessed the robustness of results by excluding lower-quality studies and applying alternative regression models. From 6,015 initial records, 21 studies (n = 126,930,288 individuals) met inclusion criteria. The pooled RR for mortality associated with extreme heat events was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.06-1.46) with substantial heterogeneity across studies (I2 = 99.8%), which was explored through subgroup, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis. The meta-regression showed a significant increase in RR over time (p < 0.05). No significant publication bias was detected (Begg's test, p = 0.458). In subgroup analysis, higher RRs were observed in studies from Europe (RR range: 1.16-4.24) and low- and middle-income countries, in older adults (RR range: 1.16-2.24), in urban populations, in older populations, and in studies using absolute temperature thresholds or composite indices. Findings were similar when excluding lower-quality studies and applying alternative regression models. Extreme heat events were significantly associated with mortality, with risks increasing over time and elevated among older adults and urban populations. Municipal and health authorities should prioritize extreme heat adaptation, as mortality is likely to increase as the climate warms.
PMID: 41418864
ISSN: 1096-0953
CID: 5979812

Trends in cool roof solar reflectivity degradation in New York City (2014–2020): an important consideration for health-based evaluations of high albedo urban roofing interventions [Case Report]

Bonanni, Luke; Bershteyn, Anna; Heris, Mehdi Pourpeikari; Titus, Andrea; Wei, Hanxue; Babayode, Oyinkansola; Rom, William; Azan, Alexander
ORIGINAL:0017784
ISSN: 2624-9634
CID: 5950142

REACH-OUT: Race, Ethnicity, and Air Pollution in COVID-19 Hospitalization OUTcomes

Stingone, J A; Lovinsky-Desir, S; Kannoth, S; Shafiq, M; Zhang, C; Albrecht, S; Azan, A; Chambers, E C; Qian, M; Sheffield, P; Thompson, A B; Baidal, J W
INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:), this study aimed to estimate the effect of chronic air pollutant exposures on the risk of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality and to determine whether these effects vary by neighborhood-level vulnerability as defined by social and structural factors. METHODS:) by using zip code-level 11-year averages based on data from the 2009-2019 New York City Community Air Survey. For each pollutant, we constructed Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazards of fatality (i.e., dying from COVID among individuals with COVID) and hospital length of stay. Additionally, for each pollutant, we constructed Poisson regression models to estimate RRs (RRs) for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia, mechanical ventilation, and dialysis during hospitalization and risk of hospitalization among ED patients. Models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, history of chronic disease, and a neighborhood environmental vulnerability index (NEVI). Interaction terms were used to evaluate effect modification between pollutant exposures and the NEVI metric. Additionally, we conducted supplementary analyses to determine the joint effects of air pollution and pre-existing chronic diseases and whether those relationships varied by NEVI tertile. To supplement the fatality analysis, we conducted an excess mortality analysis among the full urban population using all-cause mortality data from public health records for 2015-2020. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the effect of selection bias. RESULTS:, and BC exposures throughout the study period. Even after accounting for the NEVI metric and pre-existing chronic disease, racial disparities persisted in the effect of air pollution on risks of pneumonia and hospitalization, with the largest RRs among Black and Hispanic populations. Results of the all-cause mortality analysis also showed no evidence of greater excess mortality in areas with higher levels of air pollution. The greatest excess mortality was observed in areas with high NEVI metrics, regardless of air pollutant exposures. CONCLUSIONS:When limiting to individuals in the hospital's typical catchment areas, the observed positive associations between air pollutant exposures and COVID-19-related morbidities such as ARDS, pneumonia, and use of dialysis were strongest in areas with higher neighborhood-level environmental vulnerability. Inverse associations between air pollutant exposures and severe outcomes like death and use of mechanical ventilation were unexpected findings that highlighted challenges in examining such associations at the population level in NYC.
PMID: 41316683
ISSN: 1041-5505
CID: 5968922

The relationship between chronic air pollution exposure, neighborhood environmental vulnerability, and adverse COVID-19 morbidities among hospitalized New York City residents

Kannoth, Sneha; Zhang, Cong; Shafiq, Mehr; Albrecht, Sandra S; Azan, Alexander; Chambers, Earle C; Qian, Min; Sheffield, Perry E; Thompson, Azure; Woo Baidal, Jennifer A; Lovinsky-Desir, Stephanie; Stingone, Jeanette A
INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Communities disproportionately burdened by adverse neighborhood-level social and structural factors may experience greater vulnerability to environmental exposures, contributing to health inequities, including adverse COVID-19. We assessed the effects of chronic air pollution on COVID-19 morbidities in NYC and examined whether these effects varied by neighborhood-level vulnerability. METHODS:)) was assigned using residential ZIP Code (NYC Community Air Survey; 2009-2019). Modified Poisson regression estimated risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia, ventilation, and dialysis, and Cox regression estimated risk of discharge, adjusting for age, sex, BMI, smoking, asthma, diabetes, and hypertension. We assessed effect modification by neighborhood-level environmental vulnerability index (NEVI) tertiles. RESULTS:and pneumonia's relationship was stronger in individuals within higher NEVI tertiles (T1: aRR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.02-1.25; T2: aRR: 2.11, 95%CI: 1.73-2.56; T3: aRR: 6.36, 95%CI: 4.71-8.60). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:Differences in neighborhood-level social and structural factors contribute to unequal health burdens associated with air pollution. Public health resources targeted toward neighborhoods with greater environmental vulnerability can encourage population-level pandemic preparedness.
PMID: 40651278
ISSN: 1873-6750
CID: 5891472

Neighborhood environmental vulnerability factors strongly drove COVID-19 fatality and excess all-cause mortality in New York City, while long-term air pollutant associations were weak and varied

Azan, Alexander; Kannoth, Sneha; Zhang, Cong; Shafiq, Mehr; Chambers, Earle C; Sheffield, Perry E; Albrecht, Sandra S; Thompson, Azure; Baidal, Jennifer Woo; Qian, Min; Lovinsky-Desir, Stephanie; Stingone, Jeanette A
PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE:We evaluated associations among long-term air pollution exposure, neighborhood-level social and structural drivers of environmental vulnerability, and COVID-19 death during the first pandemic year in New York City (NYC). METHODS:) exposures as 11-year mean concentrations. Social and structural factors were integrated into a neighborhood environmental vulnerability index (NEVI), with higher scores indicating greater vulnerability. RESULTS:(32.39) with high NEVI scores. CONCLUSIONS:, and COVID-19 death associations were unexpected, highlighting challenges in examining these associations in NYC. Future pandemic preparedness efforts should prioritize urban communities burdened by structurally rooted health vulnerabilities, even in areas with low air pollution exposure.
PMID: 40517711
ISSN: 1879-1026
CID: 5870322

Examining the Association between Heat Exposure and Crime in Cities across the United States: A Scoping Review

Azan, Alexander; Choi, Jin; Matthay, Ellicott C; Pezzella, Frank; Heris, Mehdi; Lee, David C; Kim, Byoungjun
Growing evidence suggests exposure to high temperatures may result in increased urban crime, a known driver of health and health inequity. Theoretical explanations have been developed to describe the heat-crime relationship without consensus yet achieved among experts. This scoping review aims to summarize evidence of heat-crime associations in U.S. cities. Further examination of empirical and translational inconsistencies in this literature will ensure future studies of urban heat-crime relationships in the U.S., and their policy impacts are informed by a thorough understanding of existing evidence. We performed a comprehensive literature search of empirical studies on heat-crime relationships in U.S. cities published between January 2000 and August 2023. The included studies were qualitatively synthesized based on operationalized exposures, outcomes, covariates, methodologies, theoretical framing, and policy implications. In total, 46 studies were included in this review. Most studies (93%) reported significant, positive associations between urban heat exposure and both violent and non-violent crime outcomes. The shape and strength of these associations varied based on operational definitions of urban heat exposures, crime outcomes, and relevant covariates in employed methods. We also found inconsistencies in the theoretical explanations and policy implications reported across studies. Climate-driven extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and severity. Our findings underscore the urgency of refining the understanding and translation of the complex relationship between urban heat and crime. In this review, we highlight opportunities to improve the methodological quality and responsible policy translation of future research in U.S. cities, which has implications for research globally.
PMID: 40067571
ISSN: 1468-2869
CID: 5808322

Exceeding the limits of paediatric heat stress tolerance: the risk of losing a generation to climate inaction

Azan, Alexander; Nyimbili, Sulani; Babayode, Oyinkansola O; Bershteyn, Anna
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are creating unprecedented climate-driven extreme weather, with levels of heat and humidity surpassing human physiological tolerance for heat stress. These conditions create a risk of mass casualties, with some populations particularly vulnerable due to physiological, behavioural and socioeconomic conditions (eg, lack of adequate shelter, limited healthcare infrastructure, sparse air conditioning access and electrical grid vulnerabilities). Children, especially young children, are uniquely vulnerable to extreme heat-related morbidity and mortality due to factors including low body mass, high metabolism, suboptimal thermoregulatory mechanisms and behavioural vulnerabilities. Children are also uniquely vulnerable to non-fatal heat-related morbidities, including malnutrition due to agricultural disruptions and cardiometabolic, respiratory and mental illnesses from heat exposure and/or confinement during heat avoidance. Climate mitigation through GHG reductions is central to reducing harms to children and preventing the loss of a generation to climate change. In regions most predisposed to extreme heat-driven mass casualties under various GHG emission scenarios-particularly South Asian and Southwest Asian and North African regions-adaptation tools specific to children's needs are the most urgently needed. Existing public health interventions (eg, cooling infrastructure and preventative educational campaigns) to reduce acute heat mortality, and medical infrastructure capacity to treat heat-related illnesses are currently inadequate to meet children's growing heat resiliency needs. Paediatricians and other clinical and community child healthcare providers in these regions lack education about children's heat risks and adaptation tools. Paediatricians and other child healthcare providers have a crucial role in research, education, clinical practice and advocacy to protect children during extreme heat events. Paediatricians, other child healthcare providers and stakeholders of children's well-being are urged to act on young children's behalf and to elevate youth leadership in GHG mitigation and extreme heat adaptation policy-making.
PMID: 39842863
ISSN: 2399-9772
CID: 5774592

Building Climate Change into Medical Education: A Society of General Internal Medicine Position Statement

Ghosh, Arnab K; Azan, Alexander; Basu, Gaurab; Bernstein, Joanna; Gillespie, Elizabeth; Gordon, Lesley B; Krishnamurthy, Sudarshan; LeFrancois, Darlene; Marcus, Erin N; Tejani, Mehul; Townley, Theresa; Rimler, Eva; Whelan, Heather; ,
Building expertise in climate and planetary health among healthcare professionals cannot come with greater urgency as the threats from climate change become increasingly apparent. Current and future healthcare professionals-particularly internists-will increasingly need to understand the interconnectedness of natural systems and human health to better serve their patients longitudinally. Despite this, few national medical societies and accreditation bodies espouse frameworks for climate change and planetary health-related education at the undergraduate (UME), graduate (GME), and continuing (CME) medical education level. As a community of medical educators with an enduring interest in climate change and planetary health, the Society of General Internal Medicine (SGIM) recognizes the need to explicitly define structured educational opportunities and core competencies in both UME and GME as well as pathways for faculty development. In this position statement, we build from the related SGIM Climate and Health position statement, and review and synthesize existing position statements made by US-based medical societies and accreditation bodies that focus on climate change and planetary health-related medical education, identify gaps using Bloom's Hierarchy, and provide recommendations on behalf of SGIM regarding the development of climate and planetary health curricula development. Identified gaps include (1) limited systematic approach to climate and planetary health medical education at all levels; (2) minimal emphasis on learner-driven approaches; (3) limited focus on physician and learner well-being; and (4) limited role for health equity and climate justice. Recommendations include a call to relevant accreditation bodies to explicitly include climate change and planetary health as a competency, extend the structural competency framework to climate change and planetary health to build climate justice, proactively include learners in curricular development and teaching, and ensure resources and support to design and implement climate and planetary health-focused education that includes well-being and resiliency.
PMID: 38424345
ISSN: 1525-1497
CID: 5637492

Beyond traffic jam alleviation: evaluating the health and health equity impacts of New York City's congestion pricing plan

Ghassabian, Akhgar; Titus, Andrea R; Conderino, Sarah; Azan, Alexander; Weinberger, Rachel; Thorpe, Lorna E
New York City (NYC) is slated to be the first jurisdiction in the USA to implement a cordon-based congestion tax, which will be levied on vehicles entering its Central Business District. Several cities around the world, for example, London and Stockholm, have had similar cordon-based pricing programmes, defined as road pricing that charges drivers a fee for entering a specified area (typically a congested urban centre). In addition to reducing congestion and creating revenue, projections suggest the NYC congestion pricing plan may yield meaningful traffic-related air quality improvements that could result in health benefits. NYC is a large city with high air pollution and substantial racial/ethnic and socioeconomic health inequities. The distinct geography and meteorological conditions of the city also suggest that the policy's impact on air quality may extend beyond the NYC metropolitan area. As such, the potential breadth, directionality and magnitude of health impacts on communities who might be heavily affected by the nation's first congestion pricing plan should be empirically investigated. We briefly review evaluation studies of other cordon-based congestion pricing policies and argue that implementation of this policy provides an excellent opportunity to employ a quasi-experimental study design to evaluate the policy's impacts on air quality and health outcomes across population subgroups using a health equity lens. We discuss why real-time evaluations of the NYC congestion pricing plan can potentially help optimise benefits for communities historically negatively affected by traffic-related air pollution. Assessing intended and unintended impacts on health equity is key to achieving these goals.
PMID: 38195634
ISSN: 1470-2738
CID: 5624072

Primary care needs to rise to the challenge of caring for patients during climate disasters

Azan, Alexander
PMID: 38052471
ISSN: 1756-1833
CID: 5624062