Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Accurate preoperative malignancy risk assessment in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is essential to balance timely intervention for high-grade dysplasia or invasive cancer (HGD/IC) against avoiding unnecessary or premature surgery in low-grade IPMN. This study aimed to externally validate the 2023 International Association of Pancreatology (IAP)/Kyoto guidelines and develop a combined prediction model incorporating routinely collected clinical data and laboratory parameters. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 194 patients who underwent resection for IPMN between 2012 and 2024. We evaluated the predictive performance of the current IAP/Kyoto criteria ("Kyoto model"), developed a clinical model using routinely available laboratory and clinical variables, and integrated both into a combined model. Model performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration metrics, with internal validation via bootstrapping and five-fold cross-validation. RESULTS:The Kyoto model demonstrated modest discrimination (AUC 0.62). The clinical model, incorporating neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), smoking history, blood glucose, CA19-9, and alkaline phosphatase, achieved an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.76. Compared to the Kyoto model, the combined model (AUC 0.77) significantly improved discrimination and calibration (p < 0.001). At a predicted probability threshold of >0.75, the combined model achieved a 90% specificity and 91% positive predictive value for HGD/IC, identifying a high-risk subgroup suitable for surgical intervention. CONCLUSIONS:Integrating routinely collected clinical and laboratory parameters with guideline-based imaging features shows promise to enhance preoperative identification of high-risk IPMN in patients already being considered for surgical resection. The combined model offers a practical, high-specificity tool to support surgical decision-making in this selected population, though its performance metrics should not be extrapolated to unselected surveillance cohorts. External validation is required before broader clinical implementation.

BACKGROUND:Risk calculators (RCs) support clinicians estimating the likelihood that a pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) would progress so that surveillance might be discontinued for low-risk lesions. We tested the effect of an RC on clinicians' judgment and decision-making and identified their cancer risk threshold for changing their decision. PATIENTS AND METHODS/METHODS:We presented clinicians with three vignettes (V1, V2, and V3) of patients with low-risk IPMNs and asked them to assess the likelihood that the IPMN would progress to develop high-risk features and whether they would recommend continuing surveillance imaging. Clinicians were randomly assigned to the clinical vignettes alone (n = 35) or supplemented by data from the Dutch-American Risk Stratification Tool (DART-1 RC: n = 37). We compared clinicians' judgments and decisions between groups and assessed their cancer risk threshold (level of risk at which recommendation would change). RESULTS:Across all vignettes, the RC resulted in no change in clinicians' judged likelihood of IPMN progression (V1 8.49 vs. 8.41%, p = 0.09; V2 4.39 vs. 6.75%, p = 0.99; V3 13.61 vs. 13.29%, p = 0.27) or recommendation to continue surveillance (V1 57 vs. 41%, p = 0.78; V2 41 vs. 59%, p = 0.55; V3 66 vs. 34%, p = 0.31). Clinicians varied in their reported risk threshold (V1 9%, interquartile range [IQR] 2, 13%; V2 9% [IQR 1, 15%], V3 8% [IQR 3, 20%]). CONCLUSIONS:An RC did not significantly influence clinicians' risk perception or decision to continue surveillance, although the study was limited by low sample size. The cancer risk threshold at which clinicians would change their recommendation varies widely. Future work is needed to understand why RCs do not appear to alter decision-making.

OBJECTIVE:We aimed to better understand patients' treatment preferences and quantify the level of cancer risk at which treatment preferences change (risk threshold) to inform better counseling of patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA/BACKGROUND:The complexity of IPMN management provides an opportunity to align treatment with individual preference. METHODS:We surveyed a sample of healthy volunteers simulating a common scenario: undergoing an imaging study that incidentally identifies an IPMN. In the scenario, the estimated risk of cancer in the IPMN was 5%. Patients were asked their treatment preference (surgery or surveillance), to quantify the level of cancer risk in the IPMN at which their treatment preference would change (i.e. risk threshold), and their level of cancer anxiety as measured on a 5-point Likert scale. We examined associations between participant characteristics, treatment preferences, and risk threshold using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS:The median risk threshold among the 520 participants was 25% (IQR 2.3-50%). The risk threshold had a bimodal distribution: 40% of participants had a risk threshold between 0-10% and 47% had a risk threshold above 30%. When informed that the risk of cancer was 5%, 62% of participants (n=323) preferred surveillance, and the remaining 38% (n=197) preferred surgery. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants who expressed "worry" or "extreme worry" about the malignancy risk of IPMN had significantly lower risk thresholds than participants who were "not at all worried" (Coefficient -12, 95%CI -21 to -2, P=0.015 and Coefficient -18, 95%CI -29 to -8, P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Participants varied in treatment preference and risk threshold of incidentally identified IPMNs. Given the uncertainty in estimating the true malignant potential of IPMNs, a better understanding of a patient's risk threshold, as influenced by patient concern about malignancy, will help inform the shared decision-making process.

AIM/OBJECTIVE:To evaluate whether transitional circulating tumor cells (trCTCs) predict systemic recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and assess their potential role in risk stratification for systemic treatment. BACKGROUND:The high metastatic potential of PDAC is believed to be associated with early dissemination after cancer cell reprogramming via an epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition. These cells are detectable in circulation as trCTCs and could serve as valuable biomarker capturing systemic disease involvement. METHODS:The prospective CLUSTER trial enrolled patients scheduled for PDAC resection (2016-2018). Pre- and postoperative CTCs were isolated with the Isolation-by-SizE-of-Tumor-Cells device and characterized by immunofluorescence. Cox regression with spline terms assessed associations between preoperative biomarkers and systemic recurrence, while multivariable subgroup analyses with interaction tests evaluated overall survival (OS) stratified by adjuvant chemotherapy. RESULTS:In preoperative samples, trCTCs were detected in 82 (67%) of 123 patients with a median number of two cells per ml (IQR 1-3). A linear association between preoperative trCTC counts and systemic recurrence (χ²=13.2, P=0.004) was observed, but no relevant correlation with CA19-9 levels was found (Pearson correlation=0.05, 95% CI:-0.13-0.23). Furthermore, trCTC-positivity after resection predicts recurrence and is associated with prolonged OS associated with adjuvant therapy (HR 0.21, 95%CI: 0.09-0.49) after adjustment for tumor stage and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS:Preoperatively, higher trCTC counts are associated with increased risk of systemic recurrence, while postoperative presence reflects minimal residual disease. Integrating trCTC assessment alongside currently used biomarkers into the clinical pathway for patients with PDAC could enhance risk stratification and support more personalized treatment decisions.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) with extensive peripancreatic vessel involvement is classified as locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). For this group of patients, the current standard of care does not include considering a potentially curative oncologic resection. However, recent advances in multiagent chemotherapy and surgical techniques are challenging this paradigm. Moreover, the current determination of anatomic resectability is vague and unreliable. Here we propose a definition of local resectability, based on pre- and intra-operative assessment. This anatomic definition of resectability assumes careful patient selection based on tumor biology and patient condition. The pre-operative evaluation of vascular anatomy and tumor involvement is conducted using 3D-rendering of pancreas-protocol computed tomography. Identifying a disease-free arterial or venous segment above and below the tumor involvement ("suitable target") is the single critical factor that determines anatomic resectability. Intraoperative isolation of these target vessels confirms the feasibility of vascular reconstruction before resection. This approach, which focuses on identifying target vessels rather than circumferential involvement, offers a more straightforward and clinically relevant method for assessing surgical eligibility in LAPC patients at centers of excellence. In summary, reconstructability-based on surgical expertise and guided by tumor biology-now defines the modern paradigm of resectability in LAPC.

BACKGROUND:Pancreatic cancer with early onset is increasing but comparisons with average onset cases have yielded mixed results (EOPC versus AOPC; age <50 versus ≥50). We compared clinicopathologic features, prognosis, and molecular traits of resected EOPC versus AOPC. METHODS:We retrospectively included patients with PDAC resected between 2010 and 2017 from The National Cancer Database (NCDB). Clinicopathologic data were compared across EOPC versus AOPC. Kaplan-Meier curves and cox-regression were used to perform survival analysis. Molecular features were compared using data from the cBioPortal. RESULTS:24,078 patients with resected PDAC were included, of whom 1698 (7.1 %) had EOPC. Poor prognostic factors, including high grade, advanced T-stage, and lymphovascular invasion, were less prevalent in EOPC (All p < 0.05). Patients with EOPC more frequently received neoadjuvant (28 % vs. 22 %; p < 0.001) and adjuvant chemotherapy (68 % vs. 58 %; p < 0.001) and experienced improved OS (median OS 29.5 vs 25.9 months, p = 0.023; 5-year OS: 26.9 % vs 20.8 %). No differences in the presence of key driver mutations were observed between the two groups but some distinct oncogenic mutations were observed in EOPC. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:EOPC and AOPC are clinically similar but some cases of EOPC may harbor divergent molecular changes. These patients may have only marginally improved survival.

BACKGROUND:The 2024 Kyoto guidelines for the management of intraductal mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) build on previous guidelines that consider worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS) to recommend surveillance or resection. These new guidelines have not yet been validated. METHODS:Patients undergoing pancreatectomy for an IPMN at an academic medical center between 2012 and 2023 were included. IPMNs were categorized as low-grade dysplasia (LGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), or invasive carcinoma (IC). Preoperative imaging was used to determine HRS and WF in accordance with the 2024 Kyoto guidelines. We compared IPMNs with LGD to those with HGD or IC using univariate analyses and evaluated logistic regression models with c-statistics. RESULTS:Of 211 patients, 84 (40%) had LGD, 49 (23%) had HGD, and 78 (37%) had IC. Among HRS, obstructive jaundice (p = 0.004), pancreatic duct ≥ 10 mm (p < 0.001), and suspicious or positive cytology (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with HGD/IC. An increasing number of HRS were associated with higher rates of HGD/IC. Among WFs, an abrupt change in the caliber of pancreatic duct with distal pancreatic atrophy (p = 0.001) and cystic growth ≥ 2.5 mm/year (p = 0.033) were significantly associated with higher rates of HGD/IC. Increasing numbers of WFs were also associated with higher rates of HGD/IC. The 2024 Kyoto model showed improved discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.849) compared with the 2017 Fukuoka model (AUC=0.780, p = 0.06). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:The risk of HGD/IC in IPMNs increased in a stepwise fashion as the number of WFs increased. The 2024 guidelines represent an advancement over the 2017 guidelines, notably with the inclusion of suspicious cytology as an HRS.