Faculty Bibliography

The Y-chromosome is a valuable kinship indicator in family history and forensic research. To reconstruct genealogies, the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) between paternal relatives can be estimated through Y-STR analysis. Existing models are the stepwise mutation model (SMM, only one-step Y-STR changes) and the infinite allele model (IAM, new allele per Y-STR change). In this study, these mutation models and all existing tMRCA calculators were validated through a genetic-genealogy database containing 1,120 biologically related genealogical pairs confirmed by 46 Y-STRs with known tMRCA (18,109 generations). Consistent under- and overestimation and broad confidence intervals were observed, leading to dubious tMRCA estimates. This is because they do not include individual mutation rates or multi-step changes and ignore hidden multiple, back, or parallel modifications. To improve tMRCA estimation, we developed a user-friendly calculator, the "YMrCA", including all previously mentioned mutation characteristics. After extensive validation, we observed that the YMrCA calculator demonstrated a promising performance. The YMrCA yields a significantly higher tMRCA success rate (96%; +20%) and a lower tMRCA error (7; -3) compared to the mutation models and all online tMRCA calculators. Therefore, YMrCA offers the next step towards more objective tMRCA estimation for DNA kinship research.

Anellovirus infections are highly prevalent in mammals, however, prior to this study only a handful of anellovirus genomes had been identified in members of the Felidae family. Here we characterise anelloviruses in pumas (Puma concolor), bobcats (Lynx rufus), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), caracals (Caracal caracal) and domestic cats (Felis catus). The complete anellovirus genomes (n = 220) recovered from 149 individuals were diverse. ORF1 protein sequence similarity network analysis coupled with phylogenetic analysis, revealed two distinct clusters that are populated by felid-derived anellovirus sequences, a pattern mirroring that observed for the porcine anelloviruses. Of the two-felid dominant anellovirus groups, one includes sequences from bobcats, pumas, domestic cats and an ocelot, and the other includes sequences from caracals, Canada lynx, domestic cats and pumas. Coinfections of diverse anelloviruses appear to be common among the felids. Evidence of recombination, both within and between felid-specific anellovirus groups, supports a long coevolution history between host and virus.

COVID-19 transmission rates are often linked to locally circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Here we describe 203 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences analyzed from strains circulating in Rwanda from May 2020 to February 2021. In particular, we report a shift in variant distribution towards the emerging sub-lineage A.23.1 that is currently dominating. Furthermore, we report the detection of the first Rwandan cases of the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants of concern among incoming travelers tested at Kigali International Airport. To assess the importance of viral introductions from neighboring countries and local transmission, we exploit available individual travel history metadata to inform spatio-temporal phylogeographic inference, enabling us to take into account infections from unsampled locations. We uncover an important role of neighboring countries in seeding introductions into Rwanda, including those from which no genomic sequences were available. Our results highlight the importance of systematic genomic surveillance and regional collaborations for a durable response towards combating COVID-19.

At the end of 2020, several new variants of SARS-CoV-2-designated variants of concern-were detected and quickly suspected to be associated with a higher transmissibility and possible escape of vaccine-induced immunity. In Belgium, this discovery has motivated the initiation of a more ambitious genomic surveillance program, which is drastically increasing the number of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to analyse for monitoring the circulation of viral lineages and variants of concern. In order to efficiently analyse the massive collection of genomic data that are the result of such increased sequencing efforts, streamlined analytical strategies are crucial. In this study, we illustrate how to efficiently map the spatio-temporal dispersal of target mutations at a regional level. As a proof of concept, we focus on the Belgian province of Liège that has been consistently sampled throughout 2020, but was also one of the main epicenters of the second European epidemic wave. Specifically, we employ a recently developed phylogeographic workflow to infer the regional dispersal history of viral lineages associated with three specific mutations on the spike protein (S98F, A222V and S477N) and to quantify their relative importance through time. Our analytical pipeline enables analysing large data sets and has the potential to be quickly applied and updated to track target mutations in space and time throughout the course of an epidemic.

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease which is caused by negative strand RNA-viruses belonging to the genus Lyssavirus. Within this genus, rabies viruses circulate in a diverse set of mammalian reservoir hosts, is present worldwide, and is almost always fatal in non-vaccinated humans. Approximately 59,000 people are still estimated to die from rabies each year, leading to a global initiative to work towards the goal of zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030, requiring scientific efforts from different research fields. The past decade has seen a much increased use of phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses to study the evolution and spread of rabies virus. We here review published studies in these research areas, making a distinction between the geographic resolution associated with the available sequence data. We pay special attention to environmental factors that these studies found to be relevant to the spread of rabies virus. Importantly, we highlight a knowledge gap in terms of applying these methods when all required data were available but not fully exploited. We conclude with an overview of recent methodological developments that have yet to be applied in phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses of rabies virus.

BACKGROUND:Different types of proteins diverge at vastly different rates. Moreover, the same type of protein has been observed to evolve with different rates in different phylogenetic lineages. In the present study we measured the rates of protein evolution in Eutheria (placental mammals) and Metatheria (marsupials) on a genome-wide basis and we propose that the gene position in the genome landscape has an important influence on the rate of protein divergence. RESULTS:We analyzed a protein-encoding gene set (n = 15,727) common to 16 mammals (12 Eutheria and 4 Metatheria). Using sliding windows that averaged regional effects of protein divergence we constructed landscapes in which strong and lineage-specific regional effects were seen on the molecular clock rate of protein divergence. Within each lineage, the relatively high rates were preferentially found in subtelomeric chromosomal regions. Such regions were observed to contain important and well-studied loci for fetal growth, uterine function and the generation of diversity in the adaptive repertoire of immunoglobulins. CONCLUSIONS:A genome landscape approach visualizes lineage-specific regional differences between Eutherian and Metatherian rates of protein evolution. This phenomenon of chromosomal position is a new element that explains at least part of the lineage-specific effects and differences between proteins on the molecular clock rates.

More than a year after the first identification of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as the causative agent of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China, the emergence and spread of genomic variants of this virus through travel raise concerns regarding the introduction of lineages in previously unaffected regions, requiring adequate containment strategies. Concomitantly, such introductions fuel worries about a possible increase in transmissibility and disease severity, as well as a possible decrease in vaccine efficacy. Military personnel are frequently deployed on missions around the world. As part of a COVID-19 risk mitigation strategy, Belgian Armed Forces that engaged in missions and operations abroad were screened (7683 RT-qPCR tests), pre- and post-mission, for the presence of SARS-CoV-2, including the identification of viral lineages. Nine distinct viral genotypes were identified in soldiers returning from operations in Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, and Mali. The SARS-CoV-2 variants belonged to major clades 19B, 20A, and 20B (Nextstrain nomenclature), and included "variant of interest" B.1.525, "variant under monitoring" A.27, as well as lineages B.1.214, B.1, B.1.1.254, and A (pangolin nomenclature), some of which are internationally monitored due to the specific mutations they harbor. Through contact tracing and phylogenetic analysis, we show that isolation and testing policies implemented by the Belgian military command appear to have been successful in containing the influx and transmission of these distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants into military and civilian populations.

After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain¹. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave². Here we build a phylogeographical model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries more than half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since 15 June 2020. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with the local incidence of COVID-19 during this period. The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted, and this needs to be carefully considered in strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain the spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination is reducing disease burden.

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017-2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017-2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018-2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5-10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.