Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVE:We aimed to better understand patients' treatment preferences and quantify the level of cancer risk at which treatment preferences change (risk threshold) to inform better counseling of patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA/BACKGROUND:The complexity of IPMN management provides an opportunity to align treatment with individual preference. METHODS:We surveyed a sample of healthy volunteers simulating a common scenario: undergoing an imaging study that incidentally identifies an IPMN. In the scenario, the estimated risk of cancer in the IPMN was 5%. Patients were asked their treatment preference (surgery or surveillance), to quantify the level of cancer risk in the IPMN at which their treatment preference would change (i.e. risk threshold), and their level of cancer anxiety as measured on a 5-point Likert scale. We examined associations between participant characteristics, treatment preferences, and risk threshold using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS:The median risk threshold among the 520 participants was 25% (IQR 2.3-50%). The risk threshold had a bimodal distribution: 40% of participants had a risk threshold between 0-10% and 47% had a risk threshold above 30%. When informed that the risk of cancer was 5%, 62% of participants (n=323) preferred surveillance, and the remaining 38% (n=197) preferred surgery. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants who expressed "worry" or "extreme worry" about the malignancy risk of IPMN had significantly lower risk thresholds than participants who were "not at all worried" (Coefficient -12, 95%CI -21 to -2, P=0.015 and Coefficient -18, 95%CI -29 to -8, P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Participants varied in treatment preference and risk threshold of incidentally identified IPMNs. Given the uncertainty in estimating the true malignant potential of IPMNs, a better understanding of a patient's risk threshold, as influenced by patient concern about malignancy, will help inform the shared decision-making process.

BACKGROUND:People in Connecticut are now more likely to die of a drug-related overdose than a traffic accident. While Connecticut has had some success in slowing the rise in overdose death rates, substantial additional progress is necessary. METHODS:We developed, verified, and calibrated a mechanistic simulation of alternative overdose prevention policy options, including scaling up naloxone (NLX) distribution in the community and medications for opioid use disorder (OUD) among people who are incarcerated (MOUD-INC) and in the community (MOUD-COM) in a simulated cohort of people with OUD in Connecticut. We estimated how maximally scaling up each option individually and in combinations would impact 5-year overdose deaths, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years. All costs were assessed in 2021 USD, employing a health sector perspective in base-case analyses and a societal perspective in sensitivity analyses, using a 3% discount rate and 5-year and lifetime time horizons. RESULTS:Maximally scaling NLX alone reduces overdose deaths 20% in the next 5 years at a favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER); if injectable rather than intranasal NLX was distributed, 240 additional overdose deaths could be prevented. Maximally scaling MOUD-COM and MOUD-INC alone reduce overdose deaths by 14% and 6% respectively at favorable ICERS. Considering all permutations of scaling up policies, scaling NLX and MOUD-COM together is the cost-effective choice, reducing overdose deaths 32% at ICER $19,000/QALY. In sensitivity analyses using a societal perspective, all policy options were cost saving and overdose deaths reduced 33% over 5 years while saving society $338,000 per capita over the simulated cohort lifetime. CONCLUSIONS:Maximally scaling access to naloxone and MOUD in the community can reduce 5-year overdose deaths by 32% among people with OUD in Connecticut under realistic budget scenarios. If societal cost savings due to increased productivity and reduced crime costs are considered, one-third of overdose deaths can be reduced by maximally scaling all three policy options, while saving money.

HIV infections disproportionately impact Latinx populations in the United States, yet oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake is low. This study was a secondary gendered analysis of interviews with Latina cisgender women (n = 20) recruited from an urban safety net hospital inNew York City between August 2019 and October 2022. All women were indicated for PrEP by the provider. In-depth interviews were conducted with participants in English and Spanish and asked about social determinants of health, sexual partnerships and behaviors, and PrEP-specific enablers and barriers. Secondary thematic content analysis was conducted to identify gender-related factors influencing PrEP uptake. The following themes emerged from the data:structural factors (e.g., employment), partner-related factors, low sexual health knowledge, and resilience and empowerment. Partner-related factors were the most salient; partner infidelity served as reasons for initiating PrEP. Despite being constrained by low power in relationships, women made empowered choices to initiate PrEP and protect themselves. Findings indicated that the impact of gender inequity was an important factor in Latina women's PrEP decision making, pointing to a need to address partner-driven HIV risk, imbalance of power in relationships, and gender norms.

Background Given the disproportionate rates of incarceration and lower life expectancy (LE) among Black sexual minority men (BSMM) and Black transgender women (BTW) with HIV, we modeled the impact of decarceration and screening for psychiatric conditions and substance use on LE of US BSMM/BTW with HIV. Methods We augmented a microsimulation model previously validated to predict LE and leading causes of death in the US with estimates from the HPTN 061 cohort and the Veteran's Aging Cohort Studies. We estimated independent associations among psychiatric and substance use disorders, to simulate the influence of treatment of one condition on improvement on others. We used this augmented simulation to estimate LE for BSMM/BTW with HIV with a history of incarceration under alternative policies of decarceration (i.e., reducing the fraction exposed to incarceration), screening for psychiatric conditions and substance use, or both. Results Baseline LE was 61.3 years. Reducing incarceration by 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100% increased LE by 0.29 years, 0.31 years, 0.53 years, and 1.08 years, respectively, versus no reductions in incarceration. When reducing incarceration by 33% and implementing screening for alcohol, tobacco, substance use, and depression, in which a positive screen triggers diagnostic assessment for all psychiatric and substance use conditions and linkage to treatment, LE increased by 1.52 years compared to no screening or decarceration. Discussion LE among BSMM/BTW with HIV is short compared with other people with HIV. Reducing incarceration and improving screening and treatment of psychiatric conditions and substance use could substantially increase LE in this population.

BACKGROUND:Quitting smoking may lead to improvement in substance use, psychiatric symptoms, and pain, especially among high-risk populations who are more likely to experience comorbid conditions. However, causal inferences regarding smoking cessation and its subsequent benefits have been limited. METHODS:We emulated a hypothetical open-label randomized control trial of smoking cessation using longitudinal observational data of HIV-positive and HIV-negative US veterans from 2003-2015 in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study. We followed individuals from the first time they self-reported current cigarette smoking (baseline). We categorized participants as quitters or non-quitters at the first follow-up visit (approximately 1 year after baseline). Using inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounding and selection bias, we estimated odds ratios for improvement of co-occurring conditions (unhealthy alcohol use, cannabis use, illicit opioid use, cocaine use, depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and pain symptoms) at second follow-up (approximately 2 years after baseline) for those who quit smoking compared to those who did not, among individuals who had the condition at baseline. RESULTS:Of 4,165 eligible individuals (i.e., current smokers at baseline), 419 reported no current smoking and 2,330 reported current smoking at the first follow-up. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for associations between quitting smoking and improvement of each condition at second follow-up were: 2.10 (1.01, 4.35) for unhealthy alcohol use, 1.75 (1.00, 3.06) for cannabis use, 1.10 (0.58, 2.08) for illicit opioid use, and 2.25 (1.20, 4.24) for cocaine use, 0.78 (0.44, 1.38) for depressive symptoms, 0.93 (0.58, 1.49) for anxiety symptoms, and 1.31 (0.84, 2.06) for pain symptoms. CONCLUSIONS:While a causal interpretation of our findings may not be warranted, we found evidence for decreased substance use among veterans who quit cigarette smoking but none for the resolution of psychiatric conditions or pain symptoms. Findings suggest the need for additional resources combined with smoking cessation to reduce psychiatric and pain symptoms for high-risk populations.

OBJECTIVES:We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations. BACKGROUND:Surgeons vary widely in management of IPMN. METHODS:We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association, presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold. RESULTS:One hundred fifty surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery [19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2] and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range: 2%-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 interquartile range: 10%-20%, V2 20-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI: 11%-4%; P <0.001). The median risk threshold at which surgeons would change their recommendation was 15% (V1 and V2). Surgeons who recommended surgery had a lower risk threshold for changing their recommendation than those who recommended surveillance (V1: 10.0 vs 15.0, P =0.06; V2: 7.0 vs 15.0, P =0.05). CONCLUSIONS:The treatment that patients receive for IPMNs depends greatly on how their surgeons perceive the risk of cancer in the lesion. Efforts to improve cancer risk prediction for IPMNs may lead to decreased variations in care.

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of IPMN is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA/BACKGROUND:Surgeons vary widely in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN). METHODS:We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association (AHPBA), presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold. RESULTS:150 surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery (19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2) and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range [IQR] 2-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 IQR 10-20%, V2 20-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs. 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI 11,34%; P<0.001). The median risk threshold at which surgeons would change their recommendation was 15% (V1 and V2). Surgeons who recommended surgery had a lower risk threshold for changing their recommendation than those who recommended surveillance (V1: 10.0 vs. 15.0, P=0.06; V2: 7.0 vs. 15.0, P=0.05). CONCLUSIONS:The treatment that patients receive for IPMNs depends greatly on how their surgeons perceive the risk of cancer in the lesion. Efforts to improve cancer risk prediction for IPMNs may lead to decreased variations in care.

There is strong evidence linking stimulant use, namely methamphetamine use, to sexual risk behavior among sexual minority men (SMM); we do not, however, have a good understanding of this relationship among other at-risk populations. In this study, we systematically reviewed associations between stimulant use (i.e., methamphetamine, crack cocaine, cocaine) and sexual risk behaviors among populations facing elevated risk of HIV transmission and acquisition (i.e., SMM, people who inject drugs (PWID), and people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH)). Random-effects meta-analyses and sensitivity analyses that included crude and adjusted estimates separately were conducted to evaluate the impact of potential confounding variables. The results showed strong relationships between stimulant use and condomless sex, transactional sex, and multiple sexual partners. Results were broadly consistent when analyses were stratified by type of stimulant (methamphetamine, crack cocaine, and other stimulants) and risk group. Sensitivity analyses with confounding variables did not greatly impact results. The results indicate that stimulant use is associated with numerous sexual risk behaviors regardless of risk group, suggesting prevention efforts focused on reducing methamphetamine-related HIV risk should target a range of at-risk populations.

BACKGROUND:Alcohol use, tobacco use, and other substance use often co-occur with depression, anxiety, and chronic pain, forming a constellation of alcohol, substance, and mood-related (CASM) conditions that disproportionately affects people with HIV in the USA. We used a microsimulation model to evaluate how alternative screening strategies accounting for CASM interdependence could affect life expectancy in people with HIV in the USA. METHODS:We augmented a microsimulation model previously validated to predict US adult life expectancy, including in people with HIV. Using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, we incorporated CASM co-occurrence, inferred causal relationships between CASM conditions, and assessed the effects of CASM on HIV treatment and preventive care. We simulated an in-care HIV cohort exposed to alternative CASM screening and diagnostic assessment strategies, ranging from currently recommended screenings (alcohol, tobacco, and depression, with diagnostic assessments for conditions screening positive) to a series of integrated strategies (screening for alcohol, tobacco, or depression with additional diagnostic assessments if any screened positive) to a maximal saturation strategy (diagnostic assessments for all CASM conditions). FINDINGS/RESULTS:The saturation strategy increased life expectancy by 0·95 years (95% CI 0·93-0·98) compared with no screening. Recommended screenings provided much less benefit: 0·06 years (0·03-0·09) gained from alcohol screening, 0·08 years (0·06-0·11) from tobacco screening, 0·10 years (0·08-0·11) from depression screening, and 0·25 years (0·22-0·27) from all three screenings together. One integrated strategy (screening alcohol, tobacco, and depression with diagnostic assessment for all CASM conditions if any screened positive) produced near-maximal benefit (0·82 years [0·80-0·84]) without adding substantial screening burden, albeit requiring additional diagnostic assessments. INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSIONS:Primary care providers for people with HIV should consider comprehensive diagnostic assessment of CASM conditions if one or more conditions screen positive. FUNDING/BACKGROUND:US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

BACKGROUND:Prioritization of higher-risk people for COVID-19 vaccination could prevent more deaths, but could slow vaccination speed. We used mathematical modeling to examine the trade-off between vaccination speed and prioritization for individuals age 65+ and essential workers. METHODS:We used a stochastic, discrete-time susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model with age- and comorbidity-adjusted COVID-19 outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, and deaths). The model was calibrated to COVID-19 hospitalizations, ICU census, and deaths in NYC. We assumed 10,000 vaccinations per day, initially restricted to healthcare workers and nursing home populations, and subsequently expanded to other populations at alternative times (4, 5, or 6 weeks after vaccine launch) and speeds (20,000, 50,000, 100,000, or 150,000 vaccinations per day), as well as prioritization options (+/- prioritization of people age 65+ and essential workers). In sensitivity analyses, we examined the effect of a SARS-COV-2 variant with greater transmissibility. RESULTS:To be beneficial, prioritization must not create a bottleneck that decreases vaccination speed by > 50% without a more transmissible variant, or by > 33% with the emergence of the more transmissible variant. More specifically, prioritizing people age 65+ and essential workers increased the number of lives saved per vaccine dose delivered: 3000 deaths could be averted by delivering 83,000 vaccinations per day without prioritization or 50,000 vaccinations per day with prioritization. Other tradeoffs involve vaccination speed and timing. Compared to the slowest-examined vaccination speed of 20,000 vaccinations per day, achieving the fastest-examined vaccination speed of 150,000 vaccinations per day would avert additional 313,700 (28.6%) infections and 1693 (24.1%) deaths. Emergence of a more transmissible variant would double COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths over the first 6 months of vaccination. The fastest-examined vaccination speed could only offset the harm of the more transmissible variant if achieved within 5 weeks of vaccine launch. CONCLUSIONS:Faster vaccination speed with sooner vaccination expansion would save more lives. Prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines to higher-risk populations would be more beneficial only if it does not create an excessive vaccine delivery bottleneck.