Faculty Bibliography

Low engagement with HIV services persists among young men with harmful alcohol use in South Africa. We previously piloted a rural community-based HIV service delivery model to engage this key population. In the initial study, male nurses visited alcohol-serving venues to provide HIV testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) services. From November 1 to December 30, 2021, we conducted interviews with 17 of 34 male pilot participants to evaluate program barriers, facilitators, and suggestions. All interviewees were satisfied with HIV testing and PrEP services. Participants overcame testing avoidance through peer influence and enhanced privacy. Barriers for PrEP initiation were stigma (PrEP mistaken for HIV treatment) and complacency toward HIV, while facilitators included desire to mitigate alcohol-associated risks, social support, and comfort with male community nurses. Most participants self-reported good adherence due to daily routines, nurse follow-ups, and social support, with lapses due to travel and alcohol use. Post-pilot, only three participants transferred to clinics to continue PrEP due to inconvenient access, unwelcoming environment, and stigma of clinic attendance. All participants wanted to restart community-based PrEP due to convenience, preference for male nurses, and avoidance of stigma. A few participants reported privacy concerns regarding peer-pressure to disclose test results and pills or home visits being mistaken for HIV treatment. Future suggestions included school/church visits, unmarked vehicles, nurse assistance with facilitated PrEP disclosure, patient ambassadors, and injectable PrEP. Community-based PrEP services using male nurses at alcohol-serving venues can reach men who otherwise would not engage in HIV services.

BACKGROUND:IPMN consensus guidelines make implicit judgments on what cancer risk level should prompt surgery. We used decision modeling to estimate this cancer risk threshold (CRT) for BD-IPMN patients. METHODS:We created a decision model to compare quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) following surgery or surveillance for BD-IPMNs. We simulated treatment decisions for hypothetical patients, varying age, comorbidities and lesion location (pancreatic head/tail). The base case was a 60-year-old patient with mild comorbidities and pancreatic head IPMN. Probabilities, life expectancies, and utilities were incorporated from literature/public datasets. CRT was defined as the level of cancer risk at which the expected value of QALYs for surgery first exceeded that of surveillance. RESULTS:In the base case, surgery was preferred over surveillance, yielding 21.90 vs. 21.88 QALYs. The optimal CRT for a BD-IPMN patient depended on age, comorbidities, and location. CRT in the base case was 20 % and 3 % for an IPMN in the head and tail of the pancreas, respectively. Other drivers of preferred treatment were age and likelihood of postoperative mortality. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:For BD-IPMNs, the optimal CRT varies depending on patient age and risk of surgical complications. Personalized risk threshold values could guide treatment decisions and inform future treatment consensus guidelines.

BACKGROUND:New HIV infections are increasing among heterosexual Black and Latino populations in the United States, yet little is known about the shared characteristics of HIV risk behaviors and oral PrEP use among these populations. This study sought to understand factors influencing HIV risk behaviors and oral PrEP use among low income, limited English proficient (LEP), Black and Latino men with heterosexual contact in New York City (NYC). METHODS:Sixteen Black and Latino cisgender men with heterosexual contact and indication for PrEP were recruited from an urban safety net hospital in NYC between 2021 and 2022. In-depth interviews were conducted with participants in English and Spanish. Thematic content analysis was conducted. RESULTS:Participants described multi-faceted experiences around PrEP use informed by HIV stigma, limited understanding of PrEP, and PrEP attitudes from participants and their social networks. Participants' HIV risk behaviors were informed by sexual decision making rooted in hegemonic masculinity, trust, and perceived HIV and STI susceptibility. Participants disclosed the mixed and diverse nature of their sexual networks (i.e., cisgender women, gay men, transgender women, and sex workers). Among LEP Spanish-speaking participants, HIV risk behaviors were contextually embedded in histories of sexual or physical abuse, child labor, and/or substance use problems. CONCLUSIONS:Our results call for interventions that improve sexual health knowledge, reduce stigma, and foster open discussions around sexual networks. Combined, these interventions may contribute to more accurate understanding of HIV risk behaviors and reduction of HIV transmission, especially among communities impacted by sociopolitical disenfranchisement such as LEP Spanish-speakers.

UNLABELLED: HIGHLIGHTS/UNASSIGNED:Diminishing marginal lifespan utility (DMLU) means that the value of extending lifespan may differ based on the duration of life already lived.DMLU is not typically considered in cost-effectiveness analyses.Not considering DMLU may bias cost-effectiveness analyses against equity.Not considering DMLU may reduce the accuracy of distributive cost-effectiveness analyses and other approaches to consider equity along with efficiency.

Important barriers to the use of QALYs in the United States include concerns about disability and age discrimination.Modifications to the utility function underlying QALYs have been proposed to mitigate these concerns, but some find them challenging to consider and/or to apply.Unrelated to these concerns, QALYs have been adapted within the framework of distributional cost-effectiveness analysis to allow consideration of inequality as well as efficiency.I outline how this framework can also remediate concerns about disability and age discrimination.

BACKGROUND:Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) drive HIV transmission in many sub-Saharan African settings. The impact of screening and treating AUD and MDD on HIV outcomes is unknown. We aimed to identify the cost-effectiveness of AUD and MDD interventions in Zimbabwe, and their potential contribution to reaching Zimbabwe's Ending the HIV Epidemic 2030 goal. METHODS:Using a validated HIV compartmental transmission model in Zimbabwe, we compared four policy scenarios: prevention as usual (baseline); implement AUD screening (using AUDIT) and treatment (motivational interviewing and cognitive-behavioral therapy); implement MDD screening (using PHQ-9) and treatment (cognitive-behavioral therapy); and implement screening and treatment for both. Outcomes were HIV incidence projections, infections averted through 2030, quality-adjusted life-years gained, cost per infection averted, and cost per QALY gained. Analyses considered "spillover," when treatment for AUD also results in an improvement in MDD and the converse. Sensitivity analyses identified cost reductions necessary for AUD and MDD interventions to be as cost-effective as other HIV interventions, particularly the scale-up of long-acting PrEP. RESULTS:AUD and MDD combined will be responsible for 21.1% of new HIV infections in Zimbabwe by 2030. Without considering spillover, compared to the baseline, MDD intervention can reduce new infections by 5.4% at $2039/infection averted and $3186/QALY. AUD intervention can reduce new infections by 5.8%, but at $2,968/infection averted and $4753/QALY, compared to baseline. Both MDD and AUD interventions can reduce new infections by 11.1% at $2810/infection averted and $4229/QALY, compared to baseline. Considering spillover, compared to the baseline, MDD intervention can reduce new infections by 6.4% at $1714/infection averted and $2630/QALY. AUD intervention can reduce new infections by 7.4%, but at $2299/infection averted and $3560/QALY compared to baseline. Both MDD and AUD interventions can reduce new infections by 11.9% at $2247/infection averted and $3382/QALY compared to baseline. For MDD intervention to match the cost-effectiveness of scaling long-acting PrEP, the cost of MDD intervention would need to be reduced from $16.64 to $12.88 per person. CONCLUSIONS:Implementing AUD and MDD interventions can play an important role in HIV reduction in Zimbabwe, particularly if intervention cost can be decreased while preserving effectiveness.

In mid-2022, New York City (NYC) became the epicenter of the US mpox outbreak. We provided real-time mpox case forecasts to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to aid in outbreak response. Forecasting methodologies evolved as the epidemic progressed. Initially, lacking knowledge of at-risk population size, we used exponential growth models to forecast cases. Once exponential growth slowed, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Retrospectively, we explored if forecasts could have been improved using an SEIR model in place of our early exponential growth model, with or without knowing the case detection rate. Early forecasts from exponential growth models performed poorly, as 2-week mean absolute error (MAE) grew from 53 cases/week (July 1-14) to 457 cases/week (July 15-28). However, when exponential growth slowed, providing insight into susceptible population size, an SEIR model was able to accurately predict the remainder of the outbreak (7-week MAE: 13.4 cases/week). Retrospectively, we found there was not enough known about the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak to parameterize an SEIR model early on. However, if the at-risk population and case detection rate were known, an SEIR model could have improved accuracy over exponential growth models early in the outbreak.

We used results from an optimization randomized controlled trial which tested five behavioral intervention components to support HIV antiretroviral adherence/HIV viral suppression, grounded in the multiphase optimization strategy and using a fractional factorial design to identify intervention components with cost-effectiveness sufficiently favorable for scalability. Results were incorporated into a validated HIV computer simulation to simulate longer-term effects of combinations of components on health and costs. We simulated the 32 corresponding long-term trajectories for viral load suppression, health related quality of life (HRQoL), and costs. The components were designed to be culturally and structurally salient. They were: motivational interviewing counseling sessions (MI), pre-adherence skill building (SB), peer mentorship (PM), focused support groups (SG), and patient navigation (short version [NS], long version [NL]. All participants also received health education on HIV treatment. We examined four scenarios: one-time intervention with and without discounting and continuous interventions with and without discounting. In all four scenarios, interventions that comprise or include SB and NL (and including health education) were cost effective (< $100,000/quality-adjusted life year). Further, with consideration of HRQoL impact, maximal intervention became cost-effective enough to be scalable. Thus, a fractional factorial experiment coupled with cost-effectiveness analysis is a promising approach to optimize multi-component interventions for scalability. The present study can guide service planning efforts for HIV care settings and health departments.

BACKGROUND:People in Connecticut are now more likely to die of a drug-related overdose than a traffic accident. While Connecticut has had some success in slowing the rise in overdose death rates, substantial additional progress is necessary. METHODS:We developed, verified, and calibrated a mechanistic simulation of alternative overdose prevention policy options, including scaling up naloxone (NLX) distribution in the community and medications for opioid use disorder (OUD) among people who are incarcerated (MOUD-INC) and in the community (MOUD-COM) in a simulated cohort of people with OUD in Connecticut. We estimated how maximally scaling up each option individually and in combinations would impact 5-year overdose deaths, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years. All costs were assessed in 2021 USD, employing a health sector perspective in base-case analyses and a societal perspective in sensitivity analyses, using a 3% discount rate and 5-year and lifetime time horizons. RESULTS:Maximally scaling NLX alone reduces overdose deaths 20% in the next 5 years at a favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER); if injectable rather than intranasal NLX was distributed, 240 additional overdose deaths could be prevented. Maximally scaling MOUD-COM and MOUD-INC alone reduce overdose deaths by 14% and 6% respectively at favorable ICERS. Considering all permutations of scaling up policies, scaling NLX and MOUD-COM together is the cost-effective choice, reducing overdose deaths 32% at ICER $19,000/QALY. In sensitivity analyses using a societal perspective, all policy options were cost saving and overdose deaths reduced 33% over 5 years while saving society $338,000 per capita over the simulated cohort lifetime. CONCLUSIONS:Maximally scaling access to naloxone and MOUD in the community can reduce 5-year overdose deaths by 32% among people with OUD in Connecticut under realistic budget scenarios. If societal cost savings due to increased productivity and reduced crime costs are considered, one-third of overdose deaths can be reduced by maximally scaling all three policy options, while saving money.