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Target trial emulation for comparative effectiveness research with observational data: Promise and challenges for studying medications for opioid use disorder

Christine, Paul J; Lodi, Sara; Hsu, Heather E; Bovell-Ammon, Benjamin; Yan, Shapei; Bernson, Dana; Novo, Patricia; Lee, Joshua D; Rotrosen, John; Liebschutz, Jane; Walley, Alexander Y; Larochelle, Marc R
Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) increase retention in care and decrease mortality during active treatment; however, information about the comparative effectiveness of different forms of MOUD is sparse. Observational comparative effectiveness studies are subject to many types of bias; a robust framework to minimize bias would improve the quality of comparative effectiveness evidence. This paper discusses the use of target trial emulation as a framework to conduct comparative effectiveness studies of MOUD with administrative data. Using examples from our planned research project comparing buprenorphine-naloxone and extended-release naltrexone with respect to the rates of MOUD discontinuation, we provide a primer on the challenges and approaches to employing target trial emulation in the study of MOUD.
PMID: 38519819
ISSN: 1360-0443
CID: 5641042

Individual-Level Risk Prediction of Return to Use During Opioid Use Disorder Treatment

Luo, Sean X; Feaster, Daniel J; Liu, Ying; Balise, Raymond R; Hu, Mei-Chen; Bouzoubaa, Layla; Odom, Gabriel J; Brandt, Laura; Pan, Yue; Hser, Yih-Ing; VanVeldhuisen, Paul; Castillo, Felipe; Calderon, Anna R; Rotrosen, John; Saxon, Andrew J; Weiss, Roger D; Wall, Melanie; Nunes, Edward V
IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:No existing model allows clinicians to predict whether patients might return to opioid use in the early stages of treatment for opioid use disorder. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To develop an individual-level prediction tool for risk of return to use in opioid use disorder. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This decision analytical model used predictive modeling with individual-level data harmonized in June 1, 2019, to October 1, 2022, from 3 multicenter, pragmatic, randomized clinical trials of at least 12 weeks' duration within the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN) performed between 2006 and 2016. The clinical trials covered a variety of treatment settings, including federally licensed treatment sites, physician practices, and inpatient treatment facilities. All 3 trials enrolled adult participants older than 18 years, with broad pragmatic inclusion and few exclusion criteria except for major medical and unstable psychiatric comorbidities. INTERVENTION/UNASSIGNED:All participants received 1 of 3 medications for opioid use disorder: methadone, buprenorphine, or extended-release naltrexone. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:Predictive models were developed for return to use, which was defined as 4 consecutive weeks of urine drug screen (UDS) results either missing or positive for nonprescribed opioids by week 12 of treatment. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:The overall sample included 2199 trial participants (mean [SD] age, 35.3 [10.7] years; 728 women [33.1%] and 1471 men [66.9%]). The final model based on 4 predictors at treatment entry (heroin use days, morphine- and cocaine-positive UDS results, and heroin injection in the past 30 days) yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.71). Adding UDS in the first 3 treatment weeks improved model performance (AUROC, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.78-0.85). A simplified score (CTN-0094 OUD Return-to-Use Risk Score) provided good clinical risk stratification wherein patients with weekly opioid-negative UDS results in the 3 weeks after treatment initiation had a 13% risk of return to use compared with 85% for those with 3 weeks of opioid-positive or missing UDS results (AUROC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.84). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:The prediction model described in this study may be a universal risk measure for return to opioid use by treatment week 3. Interventions to prevent return to regular use should focus on this critical early treatment period.
PMCID:10551817
PMID: 37792357
ISSN: 2168-6238
CID: 5625732

Optimizing the use of ketamine to reduce chronic postsurgical pain in women undergoing mastectomy for oncologic indication: study protocol for the KALPAS multicenter randomized controlled trial

Wang, Jing; Doan, Lisa V; Axelrod, Deborah; Rotrosen, John; Wang, Binhuan; Park, Hyung G; Edwards, Robert R; Curatolo, Michele; Jackman, Carina; Perez, Raven; ,
BACKGROUND:Mastectomies are commonly performed and strongly associated with chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP), more specifically termed postmastectomy pain syndrome (PMPS), with 25-60% of patients reporting pain 3 months after surgery. PMPS interferes with function, recovery, and compliance with adjuvant therapy. Importantly, it is associated with chronic opioid use, as a recent study showed that 1 in 10 patients continue to use opioids at least 3 months after curative surgery. The majority of PMPS patients are women, and, over the past 10 years, women have outpaced men in the rate of growth in opioid dependence. Standard perioperative multimodal analgesia is only modestly effective in prevention of CPSP. Thus, interventions to reduce CPSP and PMPS are urgently needed. Ketamine is well known to improve pain and reduce opioid use in the acute postoperative period. Additionally, ketamine has been shown to control mood in studies of anxiety and depression. By targeting acute pain and improving mood in the perioperative period, ketamine may be able to prevent the development of CPSP. METHODS:Ketamine analgesia for long-lasting pain relief after surgery (KALPAS) is a phase 3, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial to study the effectiveness of ketamine in reducing PMPS. The study compares continuous perioperative ketamine infusion vs single-dose ketamine in the postanesthesia care unit vs placebo for reducing PMPS. Participants are followed for 1 year after surgery. The primary outcome is pain at the surgical site at 3 months after the index surgery as assessed with the Brief Pain Inventory-short form pain severity subscale. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:This project is part of the NIH Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) Initiative, a nationwide effort to address the opioid public health crisis. This study can substantially impact perioperative pain management and can contribute significantly to combatting the opioid epidemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION/BACKGROUND:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05037123. Registered on September 8, 2021.
PMCID:10797799
PMID: 38243266
ISSN: 1745-6215
CID: 5624462

Rudolph et al. Respond to "Mathematization of Epidemiology" [Comment]

Rudolph, Kara E; Williams, Nicholas T; Díaz, Iván; Luo, Sean X; Rotrosen, John; Nunes, Edward V
PMID: 36721371
ISSN: 1476-6256
CID: 5791772

Optimally Choosing Medication Type for Patients With Opioid Use Disorder

Rudolph, Kara E; Williams, Nicholas T; Díaz, Iván; Luo, Sean X; Rotrosen, John; Nunes, Edward V
Patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) tend to get assigned to one of 3 medications based on the treatment program to which the patient presents (e.g., opioid treatment programs tend to treat patients with methadone, while office-based practices tend to prescribe buprenorphine). It is possible that optimally matching patients with treatment type would reduce the risk of return to regular opioid use (RROU). We analyzed data from 3 comparative effectiveness trials from the US National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN0027, 2006-2010; CTN0030, 2006-2009; and CTN0051 2014-2017), in which patients with OUD (n = 1,459) were assigned to treatment with either injection extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX), sublingual buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX), or oral methadone. We learned an individualized rule by which to assign medication type such that risk of RROU during 12 weeks of treatment would be minimized, and then estimated the amount by which RROU risk could be reduced if the rule were applied. Applying our estimated treatment rule would reduce risk of RROU compared with treating everyone with methadone (relative risk (RR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60, 0.97) or treating everyone with XR-NTX (RR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.96). Applying the estimated treatment rule would have resulted in a similar risk of RROU to that of with treating everyone with BUP-NX (RR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.11).
PMID: 36549900
ISSN: 1476-6256
CID: 5791792

Secondary Analysis of Agreement Between Negative Timeline Follow Back Report and Negative Urine Toxicology in a Large Trial of Individuals with Opioid Use Disorder

Shulman, Matisyahu; Choo, Tse-Hwei; Scodes, Jennifer; Pavlicova, Martina; Novo, Patricia; Campbell, Aimee N C; Greiner, Miranda; Lee, Joshua D; Rotrosen, John; Nunes, Edward V
OBJECTIVES:Timeline follow-back (TLFB) is a self-report measure commonly used as a method of assessing historical drug use in both clinical and research settings. Our study considered rates of agreement between TLFB and an objective biological assay of opioid use. METHODS:We calculated the rates of agreement between negative report of opioid use for the most recent 8 days on TLFB and urine toxicology (UTOX) results in a large multisite opioid use disorder treatment trial. RESULTS:In total, 3986 assessments were provided by trial participants with both UTOX and TLFB during weeks 1 to 12, 2716 during weeks 13 to 24, and 325 at week 28. Rates of disagreement between negative TLFB and positive opioid UTOX were 2.33% of all assessments (21.68% of those with positive UTOX) over weeks 1 to 12, 2.06% of all assessment (25.00% of those with positive UTOX) over weeks 13 to 24, and 9.85% of all assessments (26.02% of those with positive UTOX) at week 28. CONCLUSIONS:Negative TLFB seems to be generally associated with negative results on urine toxicology.
PMCID:10593984
PMID: 37788622
ISSN: 1935-3227
CID: 5672622

Retention and critical outcomes among new methadone maintenance patients following extended take-home reforms: a retrospective observational cohort study

Williams, Arthur Robin; Krawczyk, Noa; Hu, Mei-Chen; Harpel, Lexa; Aydinoglo, Nicole; Cerda, Magdalena; Rotrosen, John; Nunes, Edward V
BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:Approximately 1800 opioid treatment programs (OTPs) in the US dispense methadone to upwards of 400,000 patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) annually, operating under longstanding highly restrictive guidelines. OTPs were granted novel flexibilities beginning March 15, 2020, allowing for reduced visit frequency and extended take-home doses to minimize COVID exposure with great variation across states and sites. We sought to use electronic health records to compare retention in treatment, opioid use, and adverse events among patients newly entering methadone maintenance in the post-reform period in comparison with year-ago, unexposed, controls. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:Retrospective observational cohort study across 9 OTPs, geographically dispersed, in the National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA) Clinical Trials Network. Newly enrolled patients between April 15 and October 14, 2020 (post-COVID, reform period) v. March 15-September 14, 2019 (pre-COVID, control period) were assessed. The primary outcome was 6-month retention. Secondary outcomes were opioid use and adverse events including emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and overdose. FINDINGS/UNASSIGNED: INTERPRETATION/UNASSIGNED:Policies allowing for extended take-home schedules were not associated with worse retention or adverse events despite slightly elevated rates of measured opioid use while in care. Relaxed guidelines were not associated with measurable increased harms and findings could inform future studies with prospective trials. FUNDING/UNASSIGNED:USDHHSNIDACTNUG1DA013035-15.
PMCID:10751716
PMID: 38152421
ISSN: 2667-193x
CID: 5623252

Implementation of substance use screening in rural federally-qualified health center clinics identified high rates of unhealthy alcohol and cannabis use among adult primary care patients

McNeely, Jennifer; McLeman, Bethany; Gardner, Trip; Nesin, Noah; Amarendran, Vijay; Farkas, Sarah; Wahle, Aimee; Pitts, Seth; Kline, Margaret; King, Jacquie; Rosa, Carmen; Marsch, Lisa; Rotrosen, John; Hamilton, Leah
BACKGROUND:Screening for substance use in rural primary care clinics faces unique challenges due to limited resources, high patient volumes, and multiple demands on providers. To explore the potential for electronic health record (EHR)-integrated screening in this context, we conducted an implementation feasibility study with a rural federally-qualified health center (FQHC) in Maine. This was an ancillary study to a NIDA Clinical Trials Network study of screening in urban primary care clinics (CTN-0062). METHODS:Researchers worked with stakeholders from three FQHC clinics to define and implement their optimal screening approach. Clinics used the Tobacco, Alcohol, Prescription Medication, and Other Substance (TAPS) Tool, completed on tablet computers in the waiting room, and results were immediately recorded in the EHR. Adult patients presenting for annual preventive care visits, but not those with other visit types, were eligible for screening. Data were analyzed for the first 12 months following implementation at each clinic to assess screening rates and prevalence of reported unhealthy substance use, and documentation of counseling using an EHR-integrated clinical decision support tool, for patients screening positive for moderate-high risk alcohol or drug use. RESULTS:Screening was completed by 3749 patients, representing 93.4% of those with screening-eligible annual preventive care visits, and 18.5% of adult patients presenting for any type of primary care visit. Screening was self-administered in 92.9% of cases. The prevalence of moderate-high risk substance use detected on screening was 14.6% for tobacco, 30.4% for alcohol, 10.8% for cannabis, 0.3% for illicit drugs, and 0.6% for non-medical use of prescription drugs. Brief substance use counseling was documented for 17.4% of patients with any moderate-high risk alcohol or drug use. CONCLUSIONS:Self-administered EHR-integrated screening was feasible to implement, and detected substantial alcohol, cannabis, and tobacco use in rural FQHC clinics. Counseling was documented for a minority of patients with moderate-high risk use, possibly indicating a need for better support of primary care providers in addressing substance use. There is potential to broaden the reach of screening by offering it at routine medical visits rather than restricting to annual preventive care visits, within these and other rural primary care clinics.
PMCID:10510292
PMID: 37726839
ISSN: 1940-0640
CID: 5610272

Homelessness and Treatment Outcomes Among Black Adults With Opioid Use Disorder: A Secondary Analysis of X:BOT

Justen, Marissa; Scodes, Jennifer; Pavlicova, Martina; Choo, Tse-Hwei; Gopaldas, Manesh; Haeny, Angela; Opara, Onumara; Rhee, Taeho Greg; Rotrosen, John; Nunes, Edward V; Hawk, Kathryn; Edelman, E Jennifer
OBJECTIVE:We sought to identify the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with homelessnesss, and explore the relationship between homelessnesss and treatment outcomes among Black individuals. METHODS:This is a secondary analysis of the subgroup of Black participants (n = 73) enrolled in "X:BOT," a 24-week multisite randomized clinical trial comparing the effectiveness of extended-release naltrexone versus sublingual buprenorphine-naloxone (n = 570). Outcomes included medication initiation, return to extramedical use of opioids assessed by both self-report and urine toxicology, and engagement in medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) treatment at 28 weeks postrandomization. Descriptive statistics were performed. RESULTS:Black participants were mostly unmarried and male, and about a third were aged 21-30 years. Among people experiencing homelessnesss, more were uninsured (45.5% [10/22] vs 19.6% [10/51]), unemployed (77.3% [17/22] vs 64.7% [33/51]), and reported alcohol (40.9% [9/22] vs 23.5% [12/51]) and sedative use (54.5% [12/22] vs 17.6% [9/51]) within the previous 30 days. Compared with housed Black individuals, a slightly higher proportion of Black individuals experiencing homelessnesss successfully initiated study medication (81.1% [18/22] vs 72.6% [37/51]); similar proportions returned to opioid use during the trial (68.2% [15/22] vs 68.6% [35/51]) and were engaged in MOUD at 28 weeks after trial entry (72.2% [13/18] vs 69.7% [23/33]) among participants located for follow-up. CONCLUSIONS:These descriptive results among Black patients participating in a trial of MOUD suggest that efficacious MOUD is possible despite homelessnesss with additional clinical supports such as those provided by a clinical trial.
PMCID:10323031
PMID: 37579110
ISSN: 1935-3227
CID: 5609332

Clinical and psychosocial outcomes by sex among individuals prescribed buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) or extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX) for opioid use disorder

Paschen-Wolff, Margaret; Greenfield, Shelly F; Kathryn McHugh, R; Burlew, Kathleen; Pavlicova, Martina; Choo, Tse-Hwei; Barbosa-Leiker, Celestina; Ruglass, Lesia M; Mennenga, Sarah; Rotrosen, John; Nunes, Edward V; Campbell, Aimee N C
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Limited research has explored sex differences in opioid use disorder medication (MOUD) treatment outcomes. The purpose of this study was to examine MOUD initiation onto buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) versus extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX) by sex, and sex differences in clinical and psychosocial outcomes. METHODS:Using data from a 24-week open-label comparative effectiveness trial of BUP-NX or XR-NTX, this study examined MOUD initiation (i.e., receiving a minimum one XR-NTX injection or first BUP-NX dose) and 24-week self-report outcomes. We used regression models to estimate the probability of MOUD initiation failure among the intent-to-treat sample (N = 570), and the main and interaction effects of sex on outcomes of interest among the subsample of participants who successfully initiated MOUD (n = 474). RESULTS:In the intent-to-treat sample, the odds of treatment initiation failure were not significantly different by sex. In the subsample of successful MOUD initiates, the effect of treatment on employment at week 24 was significantly moderated by sex (p = .003); odds of employment were not significantly different among males by MOUD type; females randomized to XR-NTX versus BUP-NX had 4.63 times greater odds of employment (p < .001). Males had significantly lower odds of past 30-day exchanging sex for drugs versus females (adjusted odds ratios [aOR] = 0.10, p = .004), controlling for treatment and baseline outcomes. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS:Further research should explore how to integrate employment support into OUD treatment to improve patient outcomes, particularly among women. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE:The current study addressed gaps in the literature by examining sex differences in MOUD initiation and diverse treatment outcomes in a large, national sample.
PMID: 37583120
ISSN: 1521-0391
CID: 5607192