Faculty Bibliography

We consider unsupervised classification by means of a latent multinomial variable which categorizes a scalar response into one of the L components of a mixture model which incorporates scalar and functional covariates. This process can be thought as a hierarchical model with the first level modelling a scalar response according to a mixture of parametric distributions and the second level modelling the mixture probabilities by means of a generalized linear model with functional and scalar covariates. The traditional approach of treating functional covariates as vectors not only suffers from the curse of dimensionality, since functional covariates can be measured at very small intervals leading to a highly parametrized model, but also does not take into account the nature of the data. We use basis expansions to reduce the dimensionality and a Bayesian approach for estimating the parameters while providing predictions of the latent classification vector. The method is motivated by two data examples that are not easily handled by existing methods. The first example concerns identifying placebo responders on a clinical trial (normal mixture model) and the other predicting illness for milking cows (zero-inflated mixture of the Poisson model).

IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) are highly effective, but only 22% of individuals in the US with opioid use disorder receive them. Hospitalization potentially provides an opportunity to initiate MOUD and link patients to ongoing treatment. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To study the effectiveness of interprofessional hospital addiction consultation services in increasing MOUD treatment initiation and engagement. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This pragmatic stepped-wedge cluster randomized implementation and effectiveness (hybrid type 1) trial was conducted in 6 public hospitals in New York, New York, and included 2315 adults with hospitalizations identified in Medicaid claims data between October 2017 and January 2021. Data analysis was conducted in December 2023. Hospitals were randomized to an intervention start date, and outcomes were compared during treatment as usual (TAU) and intervention conditions. Bayesian analysis accounted for the clustering of patients within hospitals and open cohort nature of the study. The addiction consultation service intervention was compared with TAU using posterior probabilities of model parameters from hierarchical logistic regression models that were adjusted for age, sex, and study period. Eligible participants had an admission or discharge diagnosis of opioid use disorder or opioid poisoning/adverse effects, were hospitalized at least 1 night in a medical/surgical inpatient unit, and were not receiving MOUD before hospitalization. INTERVENTIONS/UNASSIGNED:Hospitals implemented an addiction consultation service that provided inpatient specialty care for substance use disorders. Consultation teams comprised a medical clinician, social worker or addiction counselor, and peer counselor. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:The dual primary outcomes were (1) MOUD treatment initiation during the first 14 days after hospital discharge and (2) MOUD engagement for the 30 days following initiation. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Of 2315 adults, 628 (27.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 47.0 (12.4) years. Initiation of MOUD was 11.0% in the Consult for Addiction Treatment and Care in Hospitals (CATCH) program vs 6.7% in TAU, engagement was 7.4% vs 5.3%, respectively, and continuation for 6 months was 3.2% vs 2.4%. Patients hospitalized during CATCH had 7.96 times higher odds of initiating MOUD (log-odds ratio, 2.07; 95% credible interval, 0.51-4.00) and 6.90 times higher odds of MOUD engagement (log-odds ratio, 1.93; 95% credible interval, 0.09-4.18). CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:This randomized clinical trial found that interprofessional addiction consultation services significantly increased postdischarge MOUD initiation and engagement among patients with opioid use disorder. However, the observed rates of MOUD initiation and engagement were still low; further efforts are still needed to improve hospital-based and community-based services for MOUD treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION/UNASSIGNED:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03611335.

BACKGROUND:There is a need to understand the relationship between COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels and clinical outcomes to optimize CCP use. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between recipient baseline clinical status, clinical outcomes, and CCP antibody levels. METHODS:The study analyzed data from the COMPILE study, a meta-analysis of pooled individual patient data from 8 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) assessing the efficacy of CCP vs. control, in adults hospitalized for COVID-19 who were not receiving mechanical ventilation at randomization. SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels, referred to as 'dose' of CCP treatment, were retrospectively measured in donor sera or the administered CCP, semi-quantitatively using the VITROS Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG chemiluminescent immunoassay (Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics) with a signal-to-cutoff ratio (S/Co). The association between CCP dose and outcomes was investigated, treating dose as either continuous or categorized (higher vs. lower vs. control), stratified by recipient oxygen supplementation status at presentation. RESULTS:A total of 1714 participants were included in the study, 1138 control- and 576 CCP-treated patients for whom donor CCP anti-SARS-CoV2 antibody levels were available from the COMPILE study. For participants not receiving oxygen supplementation at baseline, higher-dose CCP (/control) was associated with a reduced risk of ventilation or death at day 14 (OR = 0.19, 95% CrI: [0.02, 1.70], posterior probability Pr(OR < 1) = 0.93) and day 28 mortality (OR = 0.27 [0.02, 2.53], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.87), compared to lower-dose CCP (/control) (ventilation or death at day 14 OR = 0.79 [0.07, 6.87], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.58; and day 28 mortality OR = 1.11 [0.10, 10.49], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.46), exhibiting a consistently positive CCP dose effect on clinical outcomes. For participants receiving oxygen at baseline, the dose-outcome relationship was less clear, although a potential benefit for day 28 mortality was observed with higher-dose CCP (/control) (OR = 0.66 [0.36, 1.13], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.93) compared to lower-dose CCP (/control) (OR = 1.14 [0.73, 1.78], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.28). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Higher-dose CCP is associated with its effectiveness in patients not initially receiving oxygen supplementation, however, further research is needed to understand the interplay between CCP anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels and clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients initially receiving oxygen supplementation.

Evolving medical technologies have motivated the development of treatment decision rules (TDRs) that incorporate complex, costly data (e.g., imaging). In clinical practice, we aim for TDRs to be valuable by reducing unnecessary testing while still identifying the best possible treatment for a patient. Regardless of how well any TDR performs in the target population, there is an associated degree of uncertainty about its optimality for a specific patient. In this paper, we aim to quantify, via a confidence measure, the uncertainty in a TDR as patient data from sequential procedures accumulate in real-time. We first propose estimating confidence using the distance of a patient's vector of covariates to a treatment decision boundary, with further distances corresponding to higher certainty. We further propose measuring confidence through the conditional probabilities of ultimately (with all possible information available) being assigned a particular treatment, given that the same treatment is assigned with the patient's currently available data or given the treatment recommendation made using only the currently available patient data. As patient data accumulate, the treatment decision is updated and confidence reassessed until a sufficiently high confidence level is achieved. We present results from simulation studies and illustrate the methods using a motivating example from a depression clinical trial. Recommendations for practical use of the measures are proposed.

BACKGROUND:Emerging evidence suggests the potential mediating role of microbiome in health disparities. However, no analytic framework can be directly used to analyze microbiome as a mediator between health disparity and clinical outcome, due to the non-manipulable nature of the exposure and the unique structure of microbiome data, including high dimensionality, sparsity, and compositionality. METHODS:Considering the modifiable and quantitative features of the microbiome, we propose a microbial causal mediation model framework, SparseMCMM_HD, to uncover the mediating role of microbiome in health disparities, by depicting a plausible path from a non-manipulable exposure (e.g., ethnicity or region) to the outcome through the microbiome. The proposed SparseMCMM_HD rigorously defines and quantifies the manipulable disparity measure that would be eliminated by equalizing microbiome profiles between comparison and reference groups and innovatively and successfully extends the existing microbial mediation methods, which are originally proposed under potential outcome or counterfactual outcome study design, to address health disparities. RESULTS:Through three body mass index (BMI) studies selected from the curatedMetagenomicData 3.4.2 package and the American gut project: China vs. USA, China vs. UK, and Asian or Pacific Islander (API) vs. Caucasian, we exhibit the utility of the proposed SparseMCMM_HD framework for investigating the microbiome's contributions in health disparities. Specifically, BMI exhibits disparities and microbial community diversities are significantly distinctive between reference and comparison groups in all three applications. By employing SparseMCMM_HD, we illustrate that microbiome plays a crucial role in explaining the disparities in BMI between ethnicities or regions. 20.63%, 33.09%, and 25.71% of the overall disparity in BMI in China-USA, China-UK, and API-Caucasian comparisons, respectively, would be eliminated if the between-group microbiome profiles were equalized; and 15, 18, and 16 species are identified to play the mediating role respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed SparseMCMM_HD is an effective and validated tool to elucidate the mediating role of microbiome in health disparity. Three BMI applications shed light on the utility of microbiome in reducing BMI disparity by manipulating microbial profiles. Video Abstract.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Cognitive activity and awareness during cardiac arrest (CA) are reported but ill understood. This first of a kind study examined consciousness and its underlying electrocortical biomarkers during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). METHODS:) monitoring into CPR during in-hospital CA (IHCA). Survivors underwent interviews to examine for recall of awareness and cognitive experiences. A complementary cross-sectional community CA study provided added insights regarding survivors' experiences. RESULTS:=43%) normal EEG activity (delta, theta and alpha) consistent with consciousness emerged as long as 35-60 minutes into CPR. CONCLUSIONS:Consciousness. awareness and cognitive processes may occur during CA. The emergence of normal EEG may reflect a resumption of a network-level of cognitive activity, and a biomarker of consciousness, lucidity and RED (authentic "near-death" experiences).

This paper develops a Bayesian model with a flexible link function connecting a binary treatment response to a linear combination of covariates and a treatment indicator and the interaction between the two. Generalized linear models allowing data-driven link functions are often called "single-index models" and are among popular semi-parametric modeling methods. In this paper, we focus on modeling heterogeneous treatment effects, with the goal of developing a treatment benefit index (TBI) incorporating prior information from historical data. The model makes inference on a composite moderator of treatment effects, summarizing the effect of the predictors within a single variable through a linear projection of the predictors. This treatment benefit index can be useful for stratifying patients according to their predicted treatment benefit levels and can be especially useful for precision health applications. The proposed method is applied to a COVID-19 treatment study.

OBJECTIVE:Chronic mental and physical fatigue and post-exertional malaise are the more debilitating symptoms of long COVID-19. The study objective was to explore factors contributing to exercise intolerance in long COVID-19 to guide development of new therapies. Exercise capacity data of patients referred for a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) and included in a COVID-19 Survivorship Registry at one urban health center were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS:pulse peak % predicted (of 79 ± 12.9) was reduced, supporting impaired energy metabolism as a mechanism of exercise intolerance in long COVID, n = 59. We further identified blunted rise in heart rate peak during maximal CPET. Our preliminary analyses support therapies that optimize bioenergetics and improve oxygen utilization for treating long COVID-19.

BACKGROUND/UNASSIGNED:The optimal revascularization approach in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and ischemic heart disease ("ischemic cardiomyopathy") is unknown. Physician preferences regarding clinical equipoise for mode of revascularization and their willingness to consider offering enrollment in a randomized trial to patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy have not been characterized. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:We conducted two anonymous online surveys: 1) a clinical case scenario-based survey to assess willingness to offer clinical trial enrollment for a patient with ischemic cardiomyopathy (overall response rate to email invitation 0.45 %), and 2) a Delphi consensus-building survey to identify specific areas of clinical equipoise (overall response rate to email invitation 37 %). RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:< 0.0001). In 17 scenarios (11.8 %), there was no difference in CABG or PCI appropriateness ratings, suggesting clinical equipoise in these settings. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Our findings demonstrate willingness to consider offering enrollment in a randomized clinical trial and areas of clinical equipoise, two factors that support the feasibility of a randomized trial to compare clinical outcomes after revascularization with CABG vs. PCI in selected patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, suitable coronary anatomy and co-morbidity profile.