Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to examine trends in cannabis-positive urine drug screens (UDSs) among emergency department (ED) patients from 2008 to 2019 using data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health care system, and whether these trends differed by age group (18-34, 35-64, and 65-75 years), sex, and race, and ethnicity. METHOD/METHODS:VHA electronic health records from 2008 to 2019 were used to identify the percentage of unique VHA patients seen each year at an ED, received a UDS, and screened positive for cannabis. Trends in cannabis-positive UDS were examined by age, race and ethnicity, and sex within age groups. RESULTS:Of the VHA ED patients with a UDS, the annual prevalence positive for cannabis increased from 16.42% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2019. The largest increases in cannabis-positive UDS were observed in the younger age groups. Male and female ED patients tested positive for cannabis at similar levels. Although the prevalence of cannabis-positive UDS was consistently highest among non-Hispanic Black patients, cannabis-positive UDS increased in all race and ethnicity groups. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:The increasing prevalence of cannabis-positive UDS supports the validity of previously observed population-level increases in cannabis use and cannabis use disorder from survey and administrative records. Time trends via UDS results provide additional support that previously documented increases in self-reported cannabis use and disorder from surveys and claims data are not spuriously due to changes in patient willingness to report use as it becomes more legalized, or due to greater clinical attention over time.

IMPORTANCE:Cannabis use disorder (CUD) is increasing among US adults. Few national studies have addressed the role of medical cannabis laws (MCLs) and recreational cannabis laws (RCLs) in these increases, particularly in patient populations with high rates of CUD risk factors. OBJECTIVE:To quantify the role of MCL and RCL enactment in the increases in diagnosed CUD prevalence among Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients from 2005 to 2019. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Staggered-adoption difference-in-difference analyses were used to estimate the role of MCL and RCL in the increases in prevalence of CUD diagnoses, fitting a linear binomial regression model with fixed effects for state, categorical year, time-varying cannabis law status, state-level sociodemographic covariates, and patient age group, sex, and race and ethnicity. Patients aged 18 to 75 years with 1 or more VHA primary care, emergency department, or mental health visit and no hospice/palliative care within a given calendar year were included. Time-varying yearly state control covariates were state/year rates from American Community Survey data: percentage male, Black, Hispanic, White, 18 years or older, unemployed, income below poverty threshold, and yearly median household income. Analysis took place between February to December 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:As preplanned, International Classification of Diseases, Clinical Modification, ninth and tenth revisions, CUD diagnoses from electronic health records were analyzed. RESULTS:The number of individuals analyzed ranged from 3 234 382 in 2005 to 4 579 994 in 2019. Patients were largely male (94.1% in 2005 and 89.0% in 2019) and White (75.0% in 2005 and 66.6% in 2019), with a mean (SD) age of 57.0 [14.4] years. From 2005 to 2019, adjusted CUD prevalences increased from 1.38% to 2.25% in states with no cannabis laws (no CLs), 1.38% to 2.54% in MCL-only enacting states, and 1.39% to 2.56% in RCL-enacting states. Difference-in-difference results indicated that MCL-only enactment was associated with a 0.05% (0.05-0.06) absolute increase in CUD prevalence, ie, that 4.7% of the total increase in CUD prevalence in MCL-only enacting states could be attributed to MCLs, while RCL enactment was associated with a 1.12% (95% CI, 0.10-0.13) absolute increase in CUD prevalence, ie, that 9.8% of the total increase in CUD prevalence in RCL-enacting states could be attributed to RCLs. The role of RCL in the increases in CUD prevalence was greatest in patients aged 65 to 75 years, with an absolute increase of 0.15% (95% CI, 0.13-0.17) in CUD prevalence associated with RCLs, ie, 18.6% of the total increase in CUD prevalence in that age group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:In this study of VHA patients, MCL and RCL enactment played a significant role in the overall increases in CUD prevalence, particularly in older patients. However, consistent with general population studies, effect sizes were relatively small, suggesting that cumulatively, laws affected cannabis attitudes diffusely across the country or that other factors played a larger role in the overall increases in adult CUD. Results underscore the need to screen for cannabis use and CUD and to treat CUD when it is present.

Prior applications of machine learning to population health have relied on conventional model assessment criteria, limiting the utility of models as decision supports for public health practitioners. To facilitate practitioner use of machine learning as decision support for area-level intervention, this study developed and applied four practice-based predictive model evaluation criteria (implementation capacity, preventive potential, health equity, and jurisdictional practicalities). We used a case study of overdose prevention in Rhode Island to illustrate how these criteria could inform public health practice and health equity promotion. We used Rhode Island overdose mortality records from January 2016 to June 2020 (N=1,408) and neighborhood-level Census data. We learned two disparate machine learning models, Gaussian process and random forest, to illustrate the comparative utility of our criteria to guide interventions. Our models predicted 7.5-36.4% of overdose deaths during the test period, illustrating the preventive potential of overdose interventions assuming 5-20% statewide implementation capacities for neighborhood-level resource deployment. We described the health equity implications of predictive modeling to guide interventions along urbanicity, racial/ethnic composition, and poverty. In sum, our study discussed considerations to complement predictive model evaluation criteria and inform the prevention and mitigation of spatially dynamic public health problems across the breadth of practice.

The association between recent release from incarceration and dramatically increased risk of fatal overdose is well-established at the individual level. Fatal overdose and. arrest/release are spatially clustered, suggesting that this association may persist at the neighborhood level. We analyzed multicomponent data from Rhode Island, 2016-2020, and observed a modest association at the census tract level between rates of release per 1000 population and fatal overdose per 100,000 person-years, adjusting for spatial autocorrelation in both the exposure and outcome. Our results suggest that for each additional person released to a given census tract per 1000 population, there is a corresponding increase in the rate of fatal overdose by 2 per 100,000 person years. This association is more pronounced in suburban tracts, where each additional release awaiting trial is associated with an increase in the rate of fatal overdose of 4 per 100,000 person-years and 6 per 100,000 person-years for each additional release following sentence expiration. This association is not modified by the presence or absence of a licensed medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) treatment provider in the same or surrounding tracts. Our results suggest that neighborhood-level release rates are moderately informative as to tract-level rates of fatal overdose and underscore the importance of expanding pre-release MOUD access in correctional settings. Future research should explore risk and resource environments particularly in suburban and rural areas and their impacts on overdose risk among individuals returning to the community.

Policy Points People are dying at record numbers from overdose in the United States. Concerted action has led to a number of successes, including reduced inappropriate opioid prescribing and increased availability of opioid use disorder treatment and harm-reduction efforts, yet ongoing challenges include criminalization of drug use and regulatory and stigma barriers to expansion of treatment and harm-reduction services. Priorities for action include investing in evidence-based and compassionate policies and programs that address sources of opioid demand, decriminalizing drug use and drug paraphernalia, enacting policies to make medication for opioid use disorder more accessible, and promoting drug checking and safe drug supply.

BACKGROUND:Naloxone distribution is central to ongoing efforts to address the opioid overdose crisis. Some critics contend that naloxone expansion may inadvertently promote high-risk substance use behaviors among adolescents, but this question has not been directly investigated. METHODS:We examined relationships between naloxone access laws and pharmacy naloxone distribution with lifetime heroin and injection drug use (IDU), 2007-2019. Models generating adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) included year and state fixed effects, controlled for demographics and sources of variation in opioid environments (e.g., fentanyl penetration), as well as additional policies expected to impact substance use (e.g., prescription drug monitoring). Exploratory and sensitivity analyses further examined naloxone law provisions (e.g., third-party prescribing) and applied e-value testing to assess vulnerability to unmeasured confounding. RESULTS:Adoption of any naloxone law was not associated with changes in adolescent lifetime heroin or IDU. For pharmacy dispensing, we observed a small decrease in heroin use (aOR: 0.95 [CI: 0.92, 0.99]) and a small increase in IDU (aOR: 1.07 [CI: 1.02, 1.11]). Exploratory analyses of law provisions suggested that third-party prescribing (aOR: 0.80, [CI: 0.66, 0.96]) and non-patient-specific dispensing models (aOR: 0.78, [CI: 0.61, 0.99]) were associated with decreased heroin use but not decreased IDU. Small e-values associated with the pharmacy dispensing and provision estimates indicate that unmeasured confounding may explain observed findings. CONCLUSION:Naloxone access laws and pharmacy naloxone distribution were more consistently associated with decreases rather than increases in lifetime heroin and IDU among adolescents. Our findings therefore do not support concerns that naloxone access promotes high-risk adolescent substance use behaviors. As of 2019, all US states have adopted legislation to improve naloxone access and facilitate use. However, further removal of adolescent naloxone access barriers is an important priority given that the opioid epidemic continues to affect people of all ages.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE:Adolescent internalizing symptoms are increasing in the United States. Changes in parenting practices, including monitoring and communication, have been hypothesized to contribute to these increases. We aimed to estimate trends in parenting practices and understand whether shifts in such practices explain increases in internalizing symptoms. METHODS:Using 1991-2019 Monitoring the Future data (N = 933,645), we examined trends in five parental practices (i.e., knowledge [three combined indicators], monitoring [four combined indicators], communication, weekend curfew, social permission) with ordinal regressions. We tested associations between parental practices and indicators of being in the top decile of depressive affect, low self-esteem, and self-derogation using survey-weighted logistic regressions, adjusted for gender, race/ethnicity, grade, and parental education. RESULTS:The prevalences of parental practices have not changed over time, with the exception of increases in parental knowledge, specifically parents knowing where an adolescent is after school (1999-2019 mean increase: 4.34 to 4.61 out of 5) and knowing an adolescent's location (4.16-4.49) and company at night (4.26-4.51). Higher levels of each practice were associated with lower internalizing symptoms (e.g., adjusted odds ratio for a high depressive affect based on a one-unit increase in parental knowledge: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.88, 0.90). Patterns were consistent across internalizing outcomes and decade. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:Parental knowledge, monitoring, and other practices are stable protective factors for adolescent mental health. These factors are not changing in a manner that would plausibly underlie increases in internalizing symptoms. Future interventions should provide resources that support these parental practices which are tied to adolescent internalizing symptoms.

Opioid-related overdose deaths have increased since 2010 in the U.S., but information on trends in opioid use disorder (OUD) prevalence is limited due to unreliable data. Multiplier methods are a classical epidemiological technique to estimate prevalence when direct estimation is infeasible or unreliable. We used two different multiplier approaches to estimate OUD prevalence from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimated OUD in National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and based on existing capture-recapture studies, multiplied prevalence by 4.5x. Second, we estimated the probability of drug poisoning death among people with OUD (Meta-analysis indicates 0.52/100,000), and divided the number of drug poisoning deaths in the US by this probability. Estimates were weighted to account for increase in drug-related mortality in recent years due to fentanyl. Estimated OUD prevalence was lowest when estimated in NSDUH with no multiplier, and highest when estimated from vital statistics data without adjustment. Consistent findings emerged with two methods: NSDUH data with multiplier correction, and vital statistics data with multiplier and adjustment. From these two methods, OUD prevalence increased from 2010 to 2014; then stabilized and slightly declined annually (survey data with multiplier, highest prevalence of 4.0% in 2015; death data with a multiplier and correction, highest prevalence of 2.35% in 2016). The number of US adolescent and adult individuals with OUD in 2019 was estimated between 6.7-7.6 million. When multipliers and corrections are used, OUD may have stabilized or slightly declined after 2015. Nevertheless, it remains highly prevalent, affecting 6-7 million US adolescents and adults.