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How often do sensitivity analyses for economic parameters change cost-utility analysis conclusions?

Schackman, Bruce R; Gold, Heather Taffet; Stone, Patricia W; Neumann, Peter J
BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the extent to which sensitivity analysis has been used in the cost-effectiveness literature. Sensitivity analyses for health-related QOL (HR-QOL), cost and discount rate economic parameters are of particular interest because they measure the effects of methodological and estimation uncertainties. AIM: To investigate the use of sensitivity analyses in the pharmaceutical cost-utility literature in order to test whether a change in economic parameters could result in a different conclusion regarding the cost effectiveness of the intervention analysed. METHODS: Cost-utility analyses of pharmaceuticals identified in a prior comprehensive audit (70 articles) were reviewed and further audited. For each base case for which sensitivity analyses were reported (n = 122), up to two sensitivity analyses for HR-QOL (n = 133), cost (n = 99), and discount rate (n = 128) were examined. Article mentions of thresholds for acceptable cost-utility ratios were recorded (total 36). Cost-utility ratios were denominated in US dollars for the year reported in each of the original articles in order to determine whether a different conclusion would have been indicated at the time the article was published. Quality ratings from the original audit for articles where sensitivity analysis results crossed the cost-utility ratio threshold above the base-case result were compared with those that did not. RESULTS: The most frequently mentioned cost-utility thresholds were $US20,000/QALY, $US50,000/QALY, and $US100,000/QALY. The proportions of sensitivity analyses reporting quantitative results that crossed the threshold above the base-case results (or where the sensitivity analysis result was dominated) were 31% for HR-QOL sensitivity analyses, 20% for cost-sensitivity analyses, and 15% for discount-rate sensitivity analyses. Almost half of the discount-rate sensitivity analyses did not report quantitative results. Articles that reported sensitivity analyses where results crossed the cost-utility threshold above the base-case results (n = 25) were of somewhat higher quality, and were more likely to justify their sensitivity analysis parameters, than those that did not (n = 45), but the overall quality rating was only moderate. CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity analyses for economic parameters are widely reported and often identify whether choosing different assumptions leads to a different conclusion regarding cost effectiveness. Changes in HR-QOL and cost parameters should be used to test alternative guideline recommendations when there is uncertainty regarding these parameters. Changes in discount rates less frequently produce results that would change the conclusion about cost effectiveness. Improving the overall quality of published studies and describing the justifications for parameter ranges would allow more meaningful conclusions to be drawn from sensitivity analyses
PMID: 15061679
ISSN: 1170-7690
CID: 131998

Influence of surgical subspecialty training on in-hospital mortality for gastrectomy and colectomy patients

Callahan, Mark A; Christos, Paul J; Gold, Heather T; Mushlin, Alvin I; Daly, John M
OBJECTIVE: This study examined the relationship of surgeon subspecialty training and interests to in-hospital mortality while controlling for both hospital and surgeon volume. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The relationship between volume of surgical procedures and in-hospital mortality has been studied and shows an inverse relationship. METHODS: A large Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System was used to identify all 55,016 inpatients who underwent gastrectomy (n = 6434) or colectomy (n = 48,582) between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2001. Surgical subspecialty training and interest was defined as surgeons who were members of the Society of Surgical Oncology (training/interest; n = 68) or the Society of Colorectal Surgery (training; n = 61) during the study period. The association of in-hospital mortality and subspecialty training/interest was examined using a logistic regression model, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, insurance status, and hospital and surgeon volume. RESULTS: Overall mortality for colectomy patients was 4.6%; the adjusted mortality rate for subspecialty versus nonsubspecialty-trained surgeons was 2.4% versus 4.8%, respectively (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.34, 0.60; P < 0.0001). Gastrectomy patients experienced an overall mortality rate of 8.4%; the adjusted mortality rate for patients treated by subspecialty trained surgeons was 6.5%, while the adjusted mortality rate for nonsubspecialty trained surgeons was 8.7% (adjusted OR = 0.70; 95% CI = 0.46, 1.08; P = 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: For gastrectomies and colectomies, risk-adjusted mortality is substantially lower when performed by subspecialty interested and trained surgeons, even after accounting for hospital and surgeon volume and patient characteristics. These findings may have implications for surgical training programs and for regionalization of complex surgical procedures
PMCID:1360121
PMID: 14530734
ISSN: 0003-4932
CID: 131999

Cost utility of public clinics to increase pneumococcal vaccines in the elderly

Mukamel, D B; Gold, H T; Bennett, N M
BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal immunization has been shown to be cost effective, is recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, and is covered by Medicare. Despite that, over 50% of the population aged > or =65 is not vaccinated, leading to significant mortality and morbidity. The objective of this study is to evaluate the costs and the cost utility of immunization in nontraditional settings (community clinics set up to provide influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations) as a strategy to increase pneumococcal immunization rates. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis of public immunization clinics in Monroe County, New York, during the fall of 1998. The study included 1207 adults aged > or =65. Costs of operating the clinics and of vaccine administration were measured. The cost of health sequela and estimates of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from prior studies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test several important assumptions. RESULTS: Unlike immunizations in physician offices, immunizations in nontraditional settings are not cost saving. Estimates of incremental cost-utility ratios ranged from $4215 per QALY to $12,617 per QALY, depending on the underlying assumptions of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Clinics in nontraditional settings offering pneumococcal immunization have cost-utility ratios near and below those of other recommended vaccines. These results suggest that such clinics should be considered a viable strategy for increasing pneumococcal immunization rates
PMID: 11418254
ISSN: 0749-3797
CID: 132000