Faculty Bibliography

INTRODUCTION: Falls are the leading cause of injury in older people. Reducing falls could reduce financial pressures on health services. We carried out this research to develop a falls risk model, using routine primary care and hospital data to identify those at risk of falls, and apply a cost analysis to enable commissioners of health services to identify those in whom savings can be made through referral to a falls prevention service. METHODS: Multilevel logistical regression was performed on routinely collected general practice and hospital data from 74751 over 65's, to produce a risk model for falls. Validation measures were carried out. A cost-analysis was performed to identify at which level of risk it would be cost-effective to refer patients to a falls prevention service. 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a Monte Carlo Model (MCM), allowing us to adjust for uncertainty in the estimates of these variables. RESULTS: A risk model for falls was produced with an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.87. The risk cut-off with the highest combination of sensitivity and specificity was at p = 0.07 (sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 78%). The risk cut-off at which savings outweigh costs was p = 0.27 and the risk cut-off with the maximum savings was p = 0.53, which would result in referral of 1.8% and 0.45% of the over 65's population respectively. Above a risk cut-off of p = 0.27, costs do not exceed savings. CONCLUSIONS: This model is the best performing falls predictive tool developed to date; it has been developed on a large UK city population; can be readily run from routine data; and can be implemented in a way that optimises the use of health service resources. Commissioners of health services should use this model to flag and refer patients at risk to their falls service and save resources.

BACKGROUND: No study has examined the longitudinal trends in National Council Licensure Exam for Registered Nurse (NCLEX-RN) applicants and pass rates among internationally-educated nurses (IENs) seeking to work in the United States, nor has any analysis explored the impact of specific events on these trends, including changes to the NCLEX-RN exam, the role of the economic crisis, or the passing of the WHO Code on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel. This study seeks to understand the impact of the three aforementioned factors that may be influencing current and future IEN recruitment patterns in the United States. METHODS: In this random effects panel data analysis, we analyzed 11 years (2003-2013) of annual IEN applicant numbers and pass rates for registered nurse credentialing. Data were obtained from publicly available reports on exam pass rates. With the global economic crisis and NCLEX-RN changes in 2008 coupled with the WHO Code passage in 2010, we sought to compare if (1) the number of applicants changed significantly after those 2 years and (2) if pass rates changed following exam modifications implemented in 2008 and 2011. RESULTS: A total of 177 countries were eligible for inclusion in this analysis, representing findings from 200,453 IEN applicants to the United States between 2003 and 2013. The majority of applicants were from the Philippines (58 %) and India (11 %), with these two countries combined representing 69 % of the total. Candidates from Sub-Saharan African countries totalled 7133 (3 % of all applications) over the study period, with half of these coming from Nigeria alone. No significant changes were found in the number of candidates following the 2008 economic crisis or the 2010 WHO Code, although pass rates decreased significantly following the 2008 exam modifications and the WHO Code implementation. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that, while the WHO Code has had an influence on overall IEN migration dynamics to the United States by decreasing candidate numbers, in most cases, the WHO Code was not the single cause of these fluctuations. Indeed, the impact of the NCLEX-RN exam changes appears to exert a larger influence.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study are the following: to describe the female population of reproductive age having bariatric surgery in the UK, to assess the age and ethnicity of women accessing surgery, and to assess the effect of bariatric surgery on factors that underlie fertility and pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: Demographic details, comorbidities, and operative type of women aged 18-45 years were extracted from the National Bariatric Surgery Registry (NBSR). A comparison was made with non-operative cases (aged 18-45 and BMI >/=40 kg/m2) from the Health Survey for England (HSE, 2007-2013). Analyses were performed using "R" software. RESULTS: Data were extracted on 15,222 women from NBSR and 1073 from HSE. Women aged 18-45 comprised 53 % of operations. Non-Caucasians were under-represented in NBSR compared to HSE (10 vs 16 % respectively, p < 0.0001). The NBSR group was older than the HSE group-median 38 (IQR 32-42) vs 36 (IQR 30-41) years (Wilcoxon test p < 0.0001). Almost one third of women in NBSR had menstrual dysfunction at baseline (33.0 %). BMI fell in the first year postoperatively from 48.2 +/- 8.3 to 37.4 +/- 7.5 kg/m2 (t test, p < 0.001). From NBSR, in the postoperative period, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes fell by 54 %, polycystic ovarian syndrome by 15 %, and any menstrual dysfunction by 12 %. CONCLUSIONS: Over half of all bariatric procedures are carried out on women of reproductive age. More work is required to provide prompt and equal access across ethnic groups. At least one in three women suffers from menstrual dysfunction at baseline. Bariatric surgery improves factors that underlie fertility and pregnancy outcomes. A prospective study is required to verify these effects.

PURPOSE: The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) is one of the longest established primary care sentinel networks. In 2015, it established a new data and analysis hub at the University of Surrey. This paper evaluates the representativeness of the RCGP RSC network against the English population. PARTICIPANTS AND METHOD: The cohort includes 1 042 063 patients registered in 107 participating general practitioner (GP) practices. We compared the RCGP RSC data with English national data in the following areas: demographics; geographical distribution; chronic disease prevalence, management and completeness of data recording; and prescribing and vaccine uptake. We also assessed practices within the network participating in a national swabbing programme. FINDINGS TO DATE: We found a small over-representation of people in the 25-44 age band, under-representation of white ethnicity, and of less deprived people. Geographical focus is in London, with less practices in the southwest and east of England. We found differences in the prevalence of diabetes (national: 6.4%, RCPG RSC: 5.8%), learning disabilities (national: 0.44%, RCPG RSC: 0.40%), obesity (national: 9.2%, RCPG RSC: 8.0%), pulmonary disease (national: 1.8%, RCPG RSC: 1.6%), and cardiovascular diseases (national: 1.1%, RCPG RSC: 1.2%). Data completeness in risk factors for diabetic population is high (77-99%). We found differences in prescribing rates and costs for infections (national: 5.58%, RCPG RSC: 7.12%), and for nutrition and blood conditions (national: 6.26%, RCPG RSC: 4.50%). Differences in vaccine uptake were seen in patients aged 2 years (national: 38.5%, RCPG RSC: 32.8%). Owing to large numbers, most differences were significant (p<0.00015). FUTURE PLANS: The RCGP RSC is a representative network, having only small differences with the national population, which have now been quantified and can be assessed for clinical relevance for specific studies. This network is a rich source for research into routine practice.

BACKGROUND: Minor surgery is a well-established part of family practice, but its safety and cost-effectiveness have been called into question. AIM: To audit the performance of GP minor surgeons in three different settings. DESIGN AND SETTING: A community-based surgery audit of GP minor surgery cases and outcomes from three settings: GPs who carried out minor surgery in their practice funded as enhanced (primary care) services (ESGPs); GPs with a special interest (GPwSIs) who worked independently within a healthcare organisation; and GPs working under acute trust governance (Model 2 GPs). METHOD: An audit form was completed by volunteer GP minor surgeons. Data were collected about areas of interest and aggregated data tables produced. Percentages were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and significant differences across the three groups of GPs tested using the chi2 test. RESULTS: A total of 6138 procedures were conducted, with 41% (2498; 95% CI = 39.5 to 41.9) of GP minor surgery procedures being on the head/face. Nearly all of the samples from a procedure that were expected to be sent to histology were sent (5344; 88.8%; 95% CI = 88.0 to 89.6). Malignant diagnosis was correct in 69% (33; 95% CI = 54.2 to 79.2) of cases for ESGPs, 93% (293; 95% CI = 90.1 to 95.5) for GPwSIs, and 91% (282; 95% CI = 87.2 to 93.6) for Model 2 GPs. Incomplete excision was significantly more frequent for ESGPs (17%; 9; 95% CI = 7.5 to 28.3, P<0.001). Complication rates were very low across all practitioners. CONCLUSION: GP minor surgery is safe and prompt. GPs working within a managed framework performed better. Consideration needs to be given on how better to support less well-supervised GPs.

OBJECTIVES: To examine associations between mortality and registered nurse (RN) staffing in English hospital trusts taking account of medical and healthcare support worker (HCSW) staffing. SETTING: Secondary care provided in acute hospital National Health Service (NHS) trusts in England. PARTICIPANTS: Two data sets are examined: Administrative data from 137 NHS acute hospital trusts (staffing measured as beds per staff member). A cross-sectional survey of 2917 registered nurses in a subsample of 31 trusts (measured patients per ward nurse). OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk-adjusted mortality rates for adult patients (administrative data). RESULTS: For medical admissions, higher mortality was associated with more occupied beds per RN (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.43, p=0.02) and per doctor (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.15, p <0.01) employed by the trust whereas, lower HCSW staffing was associated with lower mortality (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.00, p=0.04). In multivariable models the relationship was statistically significant for doctors (RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.15, p=0.02) and HCSWs (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.98, p<01) but not RNs (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.38, p=0.17). Trusts with an average of 10 patients per nurse (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.85, p<0.01). The relationship remained significant in the multivariable model (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.95, p<0.01). Results for surgical wards/admissions followed a similar pattern but with fewer significant results. CONCLUSIONS: Ward-based RN staffing is significantly associated with reduced mortality for medical patients. There is little evidence for beneficial associations with HCSW staffing. Higher doctor staffing levels is associated with reduced mortality. The estimated association between RN staffing and mortality changes when medical and HCSW staffing is considered and depending on whether ward or trust wide staffing levels are considered.

INTRODUCTION: Coupled plasma filtration and adsorption (CPFA) has been used in the treatment of severe sepsis with the intention of removing the proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory mediators from the systemic circulation. It is believed that this interrupts and moderates the septic cascade, but there is uncertainty about the benefits of this therapy. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to estimate the effects of CPFA on mortality in severe sepsis. The Cochrane CENTRAL Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE-EBSCO-Host, MEDLINE and ProQuest, were searched from 1997 to 2013. Randomised controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and retrospective cohort studies were included using the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) framework. Data were abstracted using standard pro forma, and studies independently reviewed by two authors to confirm inclusion criteria. Quality of studies and risk of bias were assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group (GRADE) and Critical Appraisal Skills (CASP) criteria, respectively. Meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager (RevMan V.5.1) software. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were mediator adsorption (picograms/mL), mean arterial BP (mm Hg) and oxygenation ratio. RESULTS: 17 studies met the inclusion criteria (n=441 patients, 242 CPFA). 14 studies reported the primary outcome of 28-day mortality. There were 88 deaths in CPFA patients versus 118 in those receiving haemofiltration: OR 0.34 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.13). Point estimates of effect on the secondary outcomes of mean arterial pressure and oxygen ratio favoured CPFA. Studies were small and heterogenous. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence for CPFA in severe sepsis is sparse, of poor quality and further research is required, however, this meta-analysis noted improvements in survival rates of those patients treated with CPFA.