Faculty Bibliography

Whether inclusion of the coronary artery calcium score improves cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with CKD, a population with unique calcium-phosphate homeostasis, is unknown. Among 6553 participants ages 45-84 years without prior cardiovascular disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, coronary artery calcium score was assessed for cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the Framingham predictors in those with (n=1284) and without CKD and contrasted with carotid intima-media thickness and ankle-brachial index (two other measures of subclinical atherosclerosis). During a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 650 cardiovascular events (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease) occurred (236 events in subjects with CKD). In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for Framingham predictors, each subclinical measure was independently associated with cardiovascular outcomes, with larger adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; per 1 SD) for coronary artery calcium score than carotid intima-media thickness or ankle-brachial index in subjects without and with CKD (HR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.45 to 1.97 versus HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.25 and HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.32, respectively). Compared with inclusion of carotid intima-media thickness or ankle-brachial index, inclusion of the coronary artery calcium score led to greater increases in C statistic for predicting cardiovascular disease and net reclassification improvement. Coronary artery calcium score performed best for the prediction of coronary heart disease and heart failure, regardless of CKD status. In conclusion, each measure improved cardiovascular risk prediction in subjects with CKD, with the greatest improvement observed with coronary artery calcium score.

BACKGROUND:Decreased kidney function and kidney damage may predate hypertension, but only a few studies have investigated both types of markers simultaneously, and these studies have obtained conflicting results. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Cross-sectional for prevalent and prospective observational study for incident hypertension. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:9,593 participants from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study, aged 53-75 years in 1996-1998. PREDICTORS/METHODS:Several markers of kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate using serum creatinine and/or cystatin C and 2 novel markers [β-trace protein and β2-microglobulin]) and 1 marker of kidney damage (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio [ACR]). Every kidney marker was categorized by its quintiles (top quintile as a reference for estimated glomerular filtration rates and bottom quintile for the rest). OUTCOMES/RESULTS:Prevalent and incident hypertension. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Prevalence ratios and HRs of hypertension based on modified Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively. RESULTS:There were 4,378 participants (45.6%) with prevalent hypertension at baseline and 2,175 incident hypertension cases during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. Although all 5 kidney function markers were associated significantly with prevalent hypertension, prevalent hypertension was associated most notably with higher ACR (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.50-1.71] for the highest vs lowest ACR quintile). Similarly, ACR was associated consistently with incident hypertension in all models tested (adjusted HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.10-1.49] for top quintile), while kidney function markers demonstrated significant associations in some, but not all, models. Even mildly increased ACR (9.14-14.0mg/g) was associated significantly with incident hypertension. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Self-reported use of antihypertensive medication for defining incident hypertension, single assessment of kidney markers, and relatively narrow age range. CONCLUSIONS:Although all kidney markers were associated with prevalent hypertension, only elevated albuminuria was associated consistently with incident hypertension, suggesting that kidney damage is related more closely to hypertension than moderate reduction in overall kidney function.

BACKGROUND:Whether the association of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with cardiovascular risk differs based on diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) status remains unanswered. METHODS:We investigated 11,050 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (fourth examination (1996-1998)) with follow-up for cardiovascular outcomes (coronary disease, heart failure and stroke) through 2009. Using the Cox regression models, we quantified cardiovascular risk associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in individuals with and without DM and/or HTN and assessed their interactions. RESULTS:Individuals with DM and HTN generally had higher cardiovascular risk relative to those without at all the levels of eGFR and ACR. Cardiovascular risk increased with lower eGFR and higher ACR regardless of DM and HTN status (e.g. adjusted hazards ratio (HR) for eGFR 30-44 vs. 90-104 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 2.32 (95% CI, 1.66-3.26) in non-diabetics vs. 1.83 (1.25-2.67) in diabetics and 2.45 (2.20-5.01) in non-hypertensives vs. 1.51 (1.27-1.81) in hypertensives and corresponding adjusted HR for ACR 30-299 vs. <10 mg/g, 1.70 (1.45-2.00) vs. 1.34 (1.10-1.64) and 1.42 (1.10-1.85) vs. 1.57 (1.36-1.81), respectively). Only the ACR-DM interaction reached significance, with a shallower relative risk gradient among diabetics than among non-diabetics (p = 0.02). Analysis of individual cardiovascular outcomes showed similar results. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Although individuals with DM and HTN generally had higher cardiovascular risk relative to those without these complications, both low eGFR and high ACR were associated with cardiovascular diseases regardless of the presence or absence of DM and HTN. These findings reinforce the importance of CKD in cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND:The currently established end points for clinical trials of progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) are end-stage renal disease and doubling of serum creatinine level, which approximates a 57% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). There is increased interest in using alternative end points in clinical trials to shorten trial duration and reduce sample size. As part of an evaluation of using lesser declines in GFR as alternative end points, we examined the associations of various levels of eGFR decline with the subsequent development of established end points and assess the consistency of alternate levels of eGFR decline across varying clinical manifestations of kidney disease and interventions. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Observational analysis of randomized controlled trials. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:9,488 participants in 37 randomized controlled trials in CKD. PREDICTOR/METHODS:Alternative end points, defined as 30% and 40% declines in eGFR from baseline to month 12. Effect modification by baseline eGFR, proteinuria, cause of disease, and interventions. OUTCOMES/RESULTS:Established end point, defined as end-stage renal disease, eGFR<15mL/min/1.73m(2), or doubling of serum creatinine level. RESULTS:From baseline to 12 months, 16.1% and 7.8% of participants had eGFR declines of ≥30% or ≥40%, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 2.0 (IQR, 1.2-3.1) years after the 12-month baseline period, 2,661 established end points were observed. A strong linear association was observed between eGFR decline and subsequent established end points. HRs for the established end point for 30% and 40% decreases in eGFR compared to a 0% decline were 9.6 (95% CI, 7.3-12.6) and 20.3 (95% CI, 14.1-29.3), respectively. The associations were consistent regardless of baseline eGFR, proteinuria, causes of disease, and interventions. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:Observational study subject to residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS:The strong associations between lesser declines in eGFR and the subsequent development of established end points were consistent across different clinical characteristics of kidney disease and interventions and support implementation of alternative end points in clinical trials of CKD progression.

Some suggest race-specific cutpoints for kidney measures to define and stage chronic kidney disease (CKD), but evidence for race-specific clinical impact is limited. To address this issue, we compared hazard ratios of estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and albuminuria across races using meta-regression in 1.1 million adults (75% Asians, 21% Whites, and 4% Blacks) from 45 cohorts. Results came mainly from 25 general population cohorts comprising 0.9 million individuals. The associations of lower eGFR and higher albuminuria with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were largely similar across races. For example, in Asians, Whites, and Blacks, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for eGFR 45-59 versus 90-104 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) were 1.3 (1.2-1.3), 1.1 (1.0-1.2), and 1.3 (1.1-1.7) for all-cause mortality, 1.6 (1.5-1.7), 1.4 (1.2-1.7), and 1.4 (0.7-2.9) for cardiovascular mortality, and 27.6 (11.1-68.7), 11.2 (6.0-20.9), and 4.1 (2.2-7.5) for ESRD, respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio 30-299 mg/g or dipstick 1+ versus an albumin-to-creatinine ratio under 10 or dipstick negative were 1.6 (1.4-1.8), 1.7 (1.5-1.9), and 1.8 (1.7-2.1) for all-cause mortality, 1.7 (1.4-2.0), 1.8 (1.5-2.1), and 2.8 (2.2-3.6) for cardiovascular mortality, and 7.4 (2.0-27.6), 4.0 (2.8-5.9), and 5.6 (3.4-9.2) for ESRD, respectively. Thus, the relative mortality or ESRD risks of lower eGFR and higher albuminuria were largely similar among three major races, supporting similar clinical approach to CKD definition and staging, across races.

BACKGROUND:In epidemiologic research, incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) commonly is determined by laboratory tests performed at planned study visits. Given the morbidity and mortality associated with CKD, persons with incident disease may be less likely to attend scheduled visits, affecting observed associations. The objective of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up by CKD status and determine whether supplementation with diagnostic code data improves capture of incident CKD. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS:Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:11,560 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study underwent continuous surveillance for hospitalizations and death from baseline visit (1996-1999) to follow-up visit (2011-2013). A subset of hospitalizations in Washington County, MD, was used in diagnostic code validation (n=2,540). PREDICTOR/METHODS:Baseline demographics and comorbid conditions. OUTCOMES/RESULTS:Incident CKD stage 3 ascertained by follow-up visit (visit-based definition) or hospitalization surveillance (hospitalization-based definition). MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Visit-based definition: ≥25% decline from baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate to <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at follow-up visit; hospitalization-based definition: hospitalization CKD diagnostic code. RESULTS:Of 11,560 participants, 5,951 attended the follow-up visit and 9,264 were hospitalized. Never-hospitalized participants were younger, more often female, and had fewer comorbid conditions; 73.5% attended the follow-up visit. Incident CKD stage 3 occurred in 1,172 participants by the visit-based definition (251 were never hospitalized) and 1,078 participants by the hospitalization-based definition (237 attended the follow-up study visit). Sensitivity of the hospitalization-based CKD definition was 35.5% (95% CI, 31.6%-39.7%); specificity was 95.7% (95% CI, 94.2%-96.8%). Sensitivity was higher with later time period, older participant age, and baseline prevalent diabetes and CKD. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS:A subset of hospitalizations was used for validation; 15-year gap between study visits. CONCLUSIONS:The sensitivity of diagnostic code-identified CKD is low and varies by certain factors; however, supplementing a visit-based definition with hospitalization information can increase disease identification during periods of follow-up without study visits.

OBJECTIVE:Traditional predictors suboptimally predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study compared 5 nontraditional cardiac and kidney markers on the improvement of cardiovascular prediction among those with CKD. APPROACH AND RESULTS/RESULTS:Among 8622 participants aged 52 to 75 years in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, β2-microglobulin, and β-trace protein were compared for improvement in predicting incident CVD after stratifying by CKD status (940 participants with CKD [kidney dysfunction or albuminuria]). During a median follow-up of 11.9 years, there were 1672 CVD events including coronary disease, stroke, and heart failure (336 cases in CKD). Every marker was independently associated with incident CVD in participants with and without CKD. The adjusted hazard ratios (per 1 SD) were larger for cardiac markers than for kidney markers, particularly in CKD (1.61 [95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.81] for cardiac troponin T, 1.50 [1.34-1.68] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and <1.26 for kidney markers). Particularly in CKD group, cardiac markers compared with kidney markers contributed to greater c-statistic increment (0.032-0.036 versus 0.012-0.015 from 0.679 with only conventional predictors in CKD and 0.008-0.011 versus 0.002-0.010 from 0.697 in non-CKD) and categorical net reclassification improvement (0.086-0.127 versus 0.020-0.066 in CKD and 0.057-0.077 versus 0.014-0.048 in non-CKD). The superiority of cardiac markers was largely consistent in individual CVD outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:A greater improvement in cardiovascular prediction was observed for cardiac markers than for kidney markers in people with CKD. These results suggest that cardiac troponin T and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide are useful for better CVD risk classification in this population.

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE:The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE:To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION/METHODS:Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS/METHODS:Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/METHODS:End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS:The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/CONCLUSIONS:Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:Billing codes are frequently used to identify AKI events in epidemiologic research. The goals of this study were to validate billing code-identified AKI against the current AKI consensus definition and to ascertain whether sensitivity and specificity vary by patient characteristic or over time. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:The study population included 10,056 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants hospitalized between 1996 and 2008. Billing code-identified AKI was compared with the 2012 Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) creatinine-based criteria (AKIcr) and an approximation of the 2012 KDIGO creatinine- and urine output-based criteria (AKIcr_uop) in a subset with available outpatient data. Sensitivity and specificity of billing code-identified AKI were evaluated over time and according to patient age, race, sex, diabetes status, and CKD status in 546 charts selected for review, with estimates adjusted for sampling technique. RESULTS:A total of 34,179 hospitalizations were identified; 1353 had a billing code for AKI. The sensitivity of billing code-identified AKI was 17.2% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 13.2% to 21.2%) compared with AKIcr (n=1970 hospitalizations) and 11.7% (95% CI, 8.8% to 14.5%) compared with AKIcr_uop (n=1839 hospitalizations). Specificity was >98% in both cases. Sensitivity was significantly higher in the more recent time period (2002-2008) and among participants aged 65 years and older. Billing code-identified AKI captured a more severe spectrum of disease than did AKIcr and AKIcr_uop, with a larger proportion of patients with stage 3 AKI (34.9%, 19.7%, and 11.5%, respectively) and higher in-hospital mortality (41.2%, 18.7%, and 12.8%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:The use of billing codes to identify AKI has low sensitivity compared with the current KDIGO consensus definition, especially when the urine output criterion is included, and results in the identification of a more severe phenotype. Epidemiologic studies using billing codes may benefit from a high specificity, but the variation in sensitivity may result in bias, particularly when trends over time are the outcome of interest.

The Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) was established in 2009 to provide comprehensive evidence about the prognostic impact of two key kidney measures that are used to define and stage CKD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, on mortality and kidney outcomes. CKD-PC currently consists of 46 cohorts with data on these kidney measures and outcomes from >2 million participants spanning across 40 countries/regions all over the world. CKD-PC published four meta-analysis articles in 2010-11, providing key evidence for an international consensus on the definition and staging of CKD and an update for CKD clinical practice guidelines. The consortium continues to work on more detailed analysis (subgroups, different eGFR equations, other exposures and outcomes, and risk prediction). CKD-PC preferably collects individual participant data but also applies a novel distributed analysis model, in which each cohort runs statistical analysis locally and shares only analysed outputs for meta-analyses. This distributed model allows inclusion of cohorts which cannot share individual participant level data. According to agreement with cohorts, CKD-PC will not share data with third parties, but is open to including further eligible cohorts. Each cohort can opt in/out for each topic. CKD-PC has established a productive and effective collaboration, allowing flexible participation and complex meta-analyses for studying CKD.