Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVE:: To compare the value and effectiveness of different prioritization strategies of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in New York City (NYC). DESIGN:: Mathematical modelling utilized as clinical trial is not feasible. METHODS:: Using a model accounting for both sexual and parenteral transmission of HIV, we compare different PrEP prioritization strategies (PPS) with two scenarios - no PrEP and PrEP for all susceptible at-risk individuals. The PPS included PrEP for all MSM, only high-risk MSM, high-risk heterosexuals, and IDUs, and all combinations of these four strategies. Outcomes included HIV infections averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness (per-infection averted) ratios. Initial assumptions regarding PrEP included a 44% reduction in HIV transmission, 50% uptake in the prioritized population and an annual cost per person of $9762. Sensitivity analyses on key parameters were conducted. RESULTS:: Prioritization to all MSM results in a 19% reduction in new HIV infections. Compared with PrEP for all persons at-risk, this PPS retains 79% of the preventive effect at 15% of the total cost. PrEP prioritized to only high-risk MSM results in a reduction in new HIV infections of 15%. This PPS retains 60% of the preventive effect at 6% of the total cost. There are diminishing returns when PrEP utilization is expanded beyond this group. CONCLUSION:: PrEP implementation is relatively cost-inefficient under our initial assumptions. Our results suggest that PrEP should first be promoted among MSM who are at particularly high risk of HIV acquisition. Further expansion beyond this group may be cost-effective, but is unlikely to be cost-saving.

INTRODUCTION: Rates of screening colonoscopies, an effective method of preventing colorectal cancer, have increased in New York City over the past decade, and racial disparities in screening have declined. However, vulnerable subsets of the population may not be reached by traditional surveillance and intervention efforts to improve colorectal cancer screening rates. METHODS: We compared rates of screening colonoscopies among black men aged 50 or older from a citywide random-digit-dial sample and a location-based sample focused on hard-to-reach populations to evaluate the representativeness of the random-digit-dial sample. The location-based sample (N = 5,568) was recruited from 2010 through 2013 from community-based organizations in New York City. Descriptive statistics were used to compare these data with data for all black men aged 50 or older from the 2011 cohort of the Community Health Survey (weighted, N = 334) and to compare rates by community-based setting. RESULTS: Significant differences in screening colonoscopy history were observed between the location-based and random-digit-dial samples (49.1% vs 62.8%, P < .001). We observed significant differences between participants with and without a working telephone among the location-based sample and between community-based settings. CONCLUSIONS: Vulnerable subsets of the population such as those with inconsistent telephone access are excluded from random-digit-dial samples. Practitioners and researchers should consider the target population of proposed interventions to address disparities, and whether the type of setting reaches those most in need of services.

BACKGROUND: Many analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART). OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS. METHODS: We enhanced a previously described simulation model of the optimal time to initiate ART to incorporate the rate of availability of new antiviral drugs. We assumed that the future rate of availability of new drugs would be similar to the past rate of availability of new drugs, and we estimated the past rate by fitting a statistical model to actual HIV drug approval data from 1982-2010. We then tested whether or not the future availability of new drugs affected the model-predicted optimal time to initiate ART based on clinical outcomes, considering treatment initiation thresholds of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm3. We also quantified the impact of the future availability of new drugs on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). RESULTS: In base case analysis, considering the availability of new drugs raised the optimal starting CD4 threshold for most patients to 500 cells/mm3. The predicted gains in outcomes due to availability of pipeline drugs were generally small (less than 1%), but for young patients with a high viral load could add as much as a 4.9% (1.73 years) increase in LE and a 8% (2.43 QALY) increase in QALE, because these patients were particularly likely to exhaust currently available ART regimens before they died. In sensitivity analysis, increasing the rate of availability of new drugs did not substantially alter the results. Lowering the toxicity of future ART drugs had greater potential to increase benefit for many patient groups, increasing QALE by as much as 10%. CONCLUSIONS: The future availability of new ART drugs without lower toxicity raises optimal treatment initiation for most patients, and improves clinical outcomes, especially for younger patients with higher viral loads. Reductions in toxicity of future ART drugs could impact optimal treatment initiation and improve clinical outcomes for all HIV patients.

Objectives: The objectives of this systematic literature review were to identify all published literature on wearable defibrillators, assess the wearable defibrillator's efficacy and effectiveness in general and among specific patient groups, including post-myocardial infarction, post coronary artery bypass grafting or percutaneous coronary intervention, non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, and ischemic cardiomyopathy, and to evaluate the quality of evidence. Methods: The search and synthesis was informed by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement, and the quality of evidence was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation and the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Results: A total of thirty-six articles and conference abstracts from thirty-three studies were included in the review. It appears that wearable defibrillator use compared with no defibrillator use reduces the chance of ventricular tachycardia and ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) associated deaths by an absolute risk reduction of approximately 1 percent, achieved by averting approximately 4/5th of all VT/VF associated deaths. The quality of evidence was low to very low quality, such that our confidence in the reported estimates is weak. Conclusions: To validate beneficial results, further investigation using robust study designs conducted by independent researchers is warranted.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have been reported in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) in North America, Europe and Asia. Transmission is believed to be the result of exposure to blood during sexual contact. In those infected with HIV, acute HCV infection is more likely to become chronic, treatment for both HIV and HCV is more complicated and HCV disease progression may be accelerated. There is a need for systematic reviews and meta-analyses to synthesize the epidemiology, prevention and methods to control HCV infection in this population. METHODS/DESIGN: Eligible studies will include quantitative empirical data related to sexual transmission of HCV in HIV-positive MSM, including data describing incidence or prevalence, and associations between risk factors or interventions and the occurrence or progression of HCV disease. Care will be taken to ensure that HCV transmission related to injection drug use is excluded from the incidence estimates. Scientific databases will be searched using a comprehensive search strategy. Proceedings of scientific conferences, reference lists and personal files will also be searched. Quality ratings will be assigned to each eligible report using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Pooled estimates of incidence rates and measures of association will be calculated using random effects models. Heterogeneity will be assessed at each stage of data synthesis. DISCUSSION: HIV-positive MSM are a key HCV-affected population in the US and other high-income countries. This review seeks to identify modifiable risk factors and settings that will be the target of interventions, and will consider how to constitute a portfolio of interventions to deliver the greatest health benefit. This question must be considered in relation to the magnitude of HCV infection and its consequences in other key affected populations, namely, young prescription opioid users who have transitioned to illicit opiate injection, and older injection drug users among whom HCV prevalence and incidence are extremely high. This review is part of a series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses that will synthesize the evidence across all these population groups and develop recommendations and decision tools to guide public health resource allocation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number: CRD42013006462.

BACKGROUND: HIV remains a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Kenya. The effects of behaviors that accompany unhealthy alcohol consumption are a pervasive risk factor for HIV transmission and progression. Our objective was to estimate the portion of HIV infections attributable to unhealthy alcohol use and to evaluate the impact of hypothetical interventions directed at unhealthy alcohol use on HIV infections and deaths. METHODS: We estimated outcomes over a time horizon of 20 years using a computer simulation of the Kenyan population. This computer simulation integrates a compartmental model of HIV transmission with a mechanistic model of HIV progression that was previously validated in sub-Saharan Africa. Integration of the transmission and progression models allows simultaneous consideration of alcohol's effects on HIV transmission and progression (e.g., lowering antiretroviral adherence may increase transmission risk by elevating viral load, and may simultaneously increase progression by increasing the likelihood of AIDS). The simulation considers important aspects of heterogeneous sexual mixing patterns, including assortativeness of partners by age and activity level, age-discordant relationships, and high activity subgroups. Outcomes included number of new HIV infections, number of AIDS deaths, and infectivity (number of new infections per infected person per year). RESULTS: Our model estimated that the effects of behaviors accompanying unhealthy alcohol consumption are responsible for 13.0% of new HIV infections in Kenya. An alcohol intervention with effectiveness similar to that observed in a published randomized controlled trial of a cognitive-behavioral therapy-based intervention in Kenya (45% reduction in unhealthy alcohol consumption) could prevent nearly half of these infections, reducing their number by 69,858 and reducing AIDS deaths by 17,824 over 20 years. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions with respect to the magnitude of alcohol's underlying effects on condom use, antiretroviral therapy adherence, and sexually transmitted infection prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of new HIV infections in Kenya are attributable to unhealthy alcohol use. An alcohol intervention with the effectiveness observed in a published randomized controlled trial has the potential to reduce infections over 20 years by nearly 5% and avert nearly 18,000 deaths related to HIV.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that weekend hospital care is inferior to weekday care and that this difference may be related to diminished care intensity. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a metric for measuring intensity of hospital care based on utilization of the electronic health record (EHR) was associated with patient-level outcomes. METHODS: We performed a cohort study of hospitalizations at an academic medical center. Intensity of care was defined as the hourly number of provider accessions of the electronic health record, termed "EHR interactions." Hospitalizations were categorized based on the mean difference in EHR interactions between the first Friday and Saturday of hospitalization. We used regression models to determine the association of these categories with patient outcomes after adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: EHR interactions decreased from Friday to Saturday in 77% of the 9,051 hospitalizations included in the study. As compared to hospitalizations with no change in Friday to Saturday EHR interactions, the relative lengths of stay for hospitalizations with a small, moderate, and large decrease in EHR interactions were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00-1.10), 1.11 (95% CI 1.05-1.17), and 1.25 (95% CI 1.15-1.35), respectively. Although a large decrease in EHR interactions was associated with in-hospital mortality, these findings were not significant after risk adjustment (odds ratio 1.74, 95% CI 0.93-3.25). CONCLUSIONS: Intensity of inpatient care, measured by EHR interactions, significantly diminished from Friday to Saturday, and this decrease was associated with length of stay. Hospitals should consider monitoring and correcting temporal fluctuations in care intensity.