Faculty Bibliography

Sheng-Chia Chung and colleagues report in The Lancet (23 January 2014) an international comparison of cardiovascular patient mortality between the UK and Sweden. They suggest that "more than 10000 deaths at 30 days would have been prevented or delayed had UK patients experienced the care of their Swedish counterparts." Further, they estimate that 1741 deaths would have been prevented in the UK had the Swedish pattern of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and beta-blocker use been replicated in the NHS from 2004 to 2010. However, their study does not provide convincing evidence that faster uptake of primary PCI or beta-blockers on discharge would have had an effect on cardiovascular patient mortality in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends postpartum and annual monitoring for diabetes for females who have had a diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). AIM: To describe the current state of follow-up after GDM in primary care, in England. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective cohort study in 127 primary care practices. The total population analysed comprised 473 772 females, of whom 2016 had a diagnosis of GDM. METHOD: Two subgroups of females were analysed using electronic general practice records. In the first group of females (n = 788) the quality of postpartum follow-up was assessed during a 6-month period. The quality of long-term annual follow-up was assessed in a second group of females (n = 718), over a 5-year period. The two outcome measures were blood glucose testing performed within 6 months postpartum (first group) and blood glucose testing performed annually (second group). RESULTS: Postpartum follow-up was performed in 146 (18.5%) females within 6 months of delivery. Annual rates of long-term follow-up stayed consistently around 20% a year. Publication of the Diabetes in Pregnancy NICE guidelines, in 2008, had no effect on long-term screening rates. Substantial regional differences were identified among rates of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Monitoring of females after GDM is markedly suboptimal despite current recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: There is no standard method of publishing the code ranges in research using routine data. We report how code selection affects the reported prevalence and precision of results. DESIGN: We compared code ranges used to report the impact of pay-for-performance (P4P), with those specified in the P4P scheme, and those used by our informatics team to identify cases. We estimated the positive predictive values (PPV) of people with chronic conditions who were included in the study population, and compared the prevalence and blood pressure (BP) of people with hypertension (HT). SETTING: Routinely collected primary care data from the quality improvement in chronic kidney disease (QICKD-ISRCTN56023731) trial. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The case study population represented roughly 85% of those in the HT P4P group (PPV = 0.842; 95%CI = 0.840-0.844; p < 0.001). We also found differences in the prevalence of stroke (PPV = 0.694; 95%CI = 0.687- 0.700) and coronary heart disease (PPV = 0.166; 95%CI = 0.162-0.170), where the paper restricted itself to myocardial infarction codes. RESULTS: We found that the long-term cardiovascular conditions and codes selected for these conditions were inconsistent with those in P4P or the QICKD trial. The prevalence of HT based on the case study codes was 10.3%, compared with 11.8% using the P4P codes; the mean BP was 138.3 mmHg (standard deviation (SD) 15.84 mmHg)/79.4 mmHg (SD 10.3 mmHg) and 137.3 mmHg (SD 15.31)/79.1 mmHg (SD 9.93 mmHg) for the case study and P4P populations, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The case study lacked precision, and excluded cases had a lower BP. Publishing code ranges made this comparison possible and should be mandated for publications based on routine data.

Background: Understanding how cancer incidence evolves during economic growth is useful for forecasting the economic impact of cancerous diseases, and for governing the process of resources allocation in planning health services. We analyse the relationship between economic growth and cancer incidence in order to describe and measure the influence of an increasing real per capita income on the overall rate of cancer incidence. Method:We test the relationship between real per capita income and the overall rate of cancer incidence with a cross-sectional analysis, using data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization databases, for 165 countries in 2008. We measure the elasticity of cancer incidence with respect to per capita income, and we decompose the elasticities coefficients into two components: age-effect and lifestyle-effect. Results: An Engel's model, in a double-log quadratic specification, explains about half of the variations in the age-standardised rates and nearly two thirds of the variations in the incidence crude rates. All the elasticities of the crude rates are positive, but less than one. The income elasticity of the age-standardised rates are negative in lower income countries, and positive (around 0.25 and 0.32) in upper middle and high income countries, respectively. Conclusions:These results are used to develop a basic framework in order to explain how demand-side economic structural changes may affect the long run evolution of cancer incidence. At theoretical level, a J-Curve is a possible general model to represents, other things being equal, how economic growth influence cancer incidence

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a known risk factor for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. We investigate the relationship between CKD stage, proteinuria, hypertension and these adverse outcomes in the people with diabetes. We also study the outcomes of people who did not have monitoring of renal function. METHODS: A cohort of people with type 1 and 2 diabetes (N = 35,502) from the Quality Improvement in Chronic Kidney Disease (QICKD) cluster randomised trial was followed up over 2.5 years. A composite of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and end stage renal failure comprised the outcome measure. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to determine correlates with this outcome. Known cardiovascular and renal risk factors were adjusted for. RESULTS: Proteinuria and reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were independently associated with adverse outcomes in people with diabetes. People with an eGFR < 60 ml/min, proteinuria, and hypertension have the greatest odds ratio (OR) of adverse outcome; 1.58 (95% CI 1.36-1.83). Renal function was not monitored in 4460 (12.6%) people. Unmonitored renal function was associated with adverse events; OR 1.35 (95% CI 1.13-1.63) in people with hypertension and OR 1.32 (95% CI 1.07-1.64) in those without. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria, eGFR < 60 ml/min, and failure to monitor renal function are associated with cardiovascular and renal events and mortality in people with diabetes.

Strict control of systolic blood pressure is known to slow progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Here we compared audit-based education (ABE) to guidelines and prompts or usual practice in lowering systolic blood pressure in people with CKD. This 2-year cluster randomized trial included 93 volunteer general practices randomized into three arms with 30 ABE practices, 32 with guidelines and prompts, and 31 usual practices. An intervention effect on the primary outcome, systolic blood pressure, was calculated using a multilevel model to predict changes after the intervention. The prevalence of CKD was 7.29% (41,183 of 565,016 patients) with all cardiovascular comorbidities more common in those with CKD. Our models showed that the systolic blood pressure was significantly lowered by 2.41 mm Hg (CI 0.59-4.29 mm Hg), in the ABE practices with an odds ratio of achieving at least a 5 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure of 1.24 (CI 1.05-1.45). Practices exposed to guidelines and prompts produced no significant change compared to usual practice. Male gender, ABE, ischemic heart disease, and congestive heart failure were independently associated with a greater lowering of systolic blood pressure but the converse applied to hypertension and age over 75 years. There were no reports of harm. Thus, individuals receiving ABE are more likely to achieve a lower blood pressure than those receiving only usual practice. The findings should be interpreted with caution due to the wide confidence intervals.

Using data for every elective procedure in 2007 in the English National Health Service, we found evidence of socioeconomic inequality in the probability of having a procedure cancelled after admission while controlling for a range of patient and provider characteristics. Whether this disparity is inequitable is inconclusive.