Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:The association between exposure to air pollution and papillary thyroid carcinoma is unknown. We sought to estimate the relationship between long-term exposure to the fine (diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) particulate matter component of air pollution and the risk of papillary thyroid cancer. METHODS:Adult (age ≥18) patients with newly diagnosed papillary thyroid carcinoma between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016 across a single health system were identified using electronic medical records. Data from 1,990 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma were compared with 3,980 age- and sex-matched control subjects without any evidence of thyroid disease. Cumulative fine (diameter <2.5 μm) particulate matter exposure was estimated by incorporating patients' residential zip codes into a deep learning neural networks model, which uses both meteorological and satellite-based measurements. Conditional logistic regression was performed to assess for association between papillary thyroid carcinoma and increasing fine (diameter ≤2.5 μm) particulate matter concentrations over 1, 2, and 3 years of cumulative exposure preceding papillary thyroid carcinoma diagnosis. RESULTS:n = 0.04). Among current smokers (n = 623), the risk of developing papillary thyroid carcinoma was highest (adjusted odds ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.63). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Increasing concentration of fine (diameter ≤2.5 μm) particulate matter in air pollution is significantly associated with the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma with 2 and 3 years of exposure. Our novel findings provide additional insight into the potential associations between risk factors and papillary thyroid carcinoma and warrant further investigation, specifically in areas with high levels of air pollution both nationally and internationally.

BACKGROUND:In older adults (≥65) access to and outcomes following kidney transplantation (KT) have improved over the past three decades. It is unknown if there were parallel trends in re-KT. We characterized the trends, changing landscape, and outcomes of re-KT in older adults. METHODS:Among the 44,149 older kidney-only recipients (1995-2016) in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified 1,743 who underwent re-KT. We analyzed trends and outcomes (mortality, death-censored graft failure [DCGF]) by eras (1995-2002, 2003-2014 and 2015-2016) that were defined by changes to the ECD and KDPI policies. RESULTS:Among all older kidney-only recipients during 1995-2002, 2003-2014, 2015-2016 the proportion that were re-KTs increased from 2.7%-4.2%-5.7% p<0.001, respectively. Median age at re-KT (67-68-68, p=0.04), years on dialysis after graft failure (1.4-1.5-2.2, p=0.003), donor age (40.0-43.0-43.5, p=0.04), proportion with PRA 80-100 (22.0%-32.7%-48.7%, p<0.001) and donations after circulatory death (1.1%-13.4%-19.5%, p<0.001) have increased. Despite this, the 3-year cumulative incidence for mortality (22.3%-19.1%-11.5%, p=0.002) and DCGF (13.3%-10.0%-5.1%, p=0.01) decreased over time. Compared with deceased donor re-transplant recipients during 1995-2002, those during 2003-2014 and 2015-2016 had lower mortality hazard (aHR=0.78, 95%CI:0.63-0.86 and aHR=0.55, 95%CI:0.35-0.86, respectively). These declines were noted but not significant for DCGF and in living donor re-KTs. CONCLUSIONS:In older re-transplant recipients, outcomes have improved significantly over time despite higher risk profiles; yet they represent a fraction of the KTs performed. Our results support increasing access to re-KT in older adults; however, approaches to guide the selection and management in those with graft failure need to be explored.

BACKGROUND:Early steroid withdrawal (ESW) is a viable maintenance immunosuppression strategy in low-risk kidney transplant recipients. A low panel reactive antibody (PRA) may indicate low-risk condition amenable to ESW. We aimed to identify the threshold value of PRA above which ESW may pose additional risk, and to compare the association of ESW with transplant outcomes across PRA strata. METHODS:We studied 121,699 deceased-donor kidney-only recipients in 2002-2017 from SRTR. Using natural splines and ESW-PRA interaction terms, we explored how the associations of ESW with transplant outcomes change with increasing PRA values, and identified a threshold value for PRA. Then, we assessed whether PRA exceeding the threshold modified the associations of ESW with 1-year acute rejection, death-censored graft failure, and death. RESULTS:The association of ESW with acute rejection exacerbated rapidly when PRA exceeded 60. Among PRA≤60 recipients, ESW was associated with a minor increase in rejection (aOR=1.001.051.10) and with a tendency of decreased graft failure (aHR=0.910.971.03). However, among PRA>60 recipients, ESW was associated with a substantial increase in rejection (aOR=1.191.271.36; interaction p<0.001) and with a tendency of increased graft failure (aHR=0.981.081.20; interaction p=0.028). The association of ESW with death was similar between PRA strata (PRA≤60, aHR=0.910.961.01; and PRA>60, aHR=0.900.991.09; interaction p=0.5). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings show that the association of ESW with transplant outcomes is less favorable in recipients with higher PRA, especially those with PRA>60, suggesting a possible role of PRA in the risk assessment for ESW.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) and frailty are major drivers of outcomes among patients with cirrhosis. What is unknown is the impact of physical frailty on the development of AKI. We included adults with cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma listed for liver transplantation at nine US centers (n = 1,033). Frailty was assessed using the Liver Frailty Index (LFI); "frail" was defined by LFI ≥ 4.2. Chronic kidney disease as a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m² . Our primary outcome, AKI, was defined as an increase in serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dL or a serum creatinine ≥1.5-fold increase. Wait-list mortality was defined as either a death on the wait list or removal for being too sick. We performed Cox regression analyses to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for AKI and wait-list mortality. Of 1,033 participants, 41% were frail and 23% had CKD. Twenty-one percent had an episode of AKI during follow-up. Frail versus nonfrail patients were more likely to develop AKI (25% vs. 19%) and wait-list mortality (21% vs. 13%) (P < 0.01 for each). In multivariable Cox regression, each of the following groups was associated with a higher risk of AKI as compared with not frail/no CKD: frail/no CKD (adjusted HR [aHR] = 1.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29-2.72); not frail/CKD (aHR = 4.30, CI = 2.88-6.42); and frail/CKD (aHR = 4.85, CI = 3.33-7.07). We use a readily available metric, LFI, to identify those patients with cirrhosis most at risk for AKI. We highlight that serum creatinine and creatinine-based estimations of glomerular filtration rate may not fully capture a patient's vulnerability to AKI among the frail phenotype. Conclusion: Our work lays the foundation for implementing physical frailty in clinical practice to identify AKI earlier, implement reno-protective strategies, and expedite liver transplantation.