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Latent Regression Analysis
Tarpey T; Petkova E
Finite mixture models have come to play a very prominent role in modelling data. The finite mixture model is predicated on the assumption that distinct latent groups exist in the population. The finite mixture model therefore is based on a categorical latent variable that distinguishes the different groups. Often in practice distinct sub-populations do not actually exist. For example, disease severity (e.g. depression) may vary continuously and therefore, a distinction of diseased and not-diseased may not be based on the existence of distinct sub-populations. Thus, what is needed is a generalization of the finite mixture's discrete latent predictor to a continuous latent predictor. We cast the finite mixture model as a regression model with a latent Bernoulli predictor. A latent regression model is proposed by replacing the discrete Bernoulli predictor by a continuous latent predictor with a beta distribution. Motivation for the latent regression model arises from applications where distinct latent classes do not exist, but instead individuals vary according to a continuous latent variable. The shapes of the beta density are very flexible and can approximate the discrete Bernoulli distribution. Examples and a simulation are provided to illustrate the latent regression model. In particular, the latent regression model is used to model placebo effect among drug treated subjects in a depression study
PMCID:2897159
PMID: 20625443
ISSN: 1471-082x
CID: 138266
Modelling Placebo Response via Infinite Mixtures
Tarpey, Thaddeus; Petkova, Eva
Non-specific treatment response, also known as placebo response, is ubiquitous in the treatment of mental illness, particularly in treating depression. The study of placebo effect is complicated because the factors that constitute non-specific treatment effects are latent and not directly observed. A flexible infinite mixture model is introduced to model these nonspecific treatment effects. The infinite mixture model stipulates that the non-specific treatment effects are continuous and this is contrasted with a finite mixture model that is based on the assumption that the non-specific treatment effects are discrete. Data from a depression clinical trial is used to illustrate the model and to study the evolution of the placebo effect over the course of treatment.
PMCID:3145361
PMID: 21804745
ISSN: 0973-5143
CID: 818022
On Distance-Based Permutation Tests for Between-Group Comparisons
Reiss, Philip T; Stevens, M Henry H; Shehzad, Zarrar; Petkova, Eva; Milham, Michael P
Summary. Permutation tests based on distances among multivariate observations have found many applications in the biological sciences. Two major testing frameworks of this kind are multiresponse permutation procedures and pseudo-F tests arising from a distance-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance. In this article, we derive conditions under which these two frameworks are equivalent. The methods and equivalence results are illustrated by reanalyzing an ecological data set and by a novel application to functional magnetic resonance imaging data
PMID: 19673867
ISSN: 1541-0420
CID: 101777
Principal Point Classification: Applications to Differentiating Drug and Placebo Responses in Longitudinal Studies
Tarpey T; Petkova E
Principal points are cluster means for theoretical distributions. A discriminant methodology based on principal points is introduced. The principal point classification method is useful in clinical trials where the goal is to distinguish and differentiate between different treatment effects. Particularly, in psychiatric studies where placebo response rates can be very high, the principal point classification is illustrated to distinguish specific drug responders from non-specific placebo responders
PMCID:2885612
PMID: 20563220
ISSN: 0378-3758
CID: 138267
Optimal Partitioning for Linear Mixed Effects Models: Applications to Identifying Placebo Responders
Tarpey, Thaddeus; Petkova, Eva; Lu, Yimeng; Govindarajulu, Usha
A long-standing problem in clinical research is distinguishing drug treated subjects that respond due to specific effects of the drug from those that respond to non-specific (or placebo) effects of the treatment. Linear mixed effect models are commonly used to model longitudinal clinical trial data. In this paper we present a solution to the problem of identifying placebo responders using an optimal partitioning methodology for linear mixed effects models. Since individual outcomes in a longitudinal study correspond to curves, the optimal partitioning methodology produces a set of prototypical outcome profiles. The optimal partitioning methodology can accommodate both continuous and discrete covariates. The proposed partitioning strategy is compared and contrasted with the growth mixture modelling approach. The methodology is applied to a two-phase depression clinical trial where subjects in a first phase were treated openly for 12 weeks with fluoxetine followed by a double blind discontinuation phase where responders to treatment in the first phase were randomized to either stay on fluoxetine or switched to a placebo. The optimal partitioning methodology is applied to the first phase to identify prototypical outcome profiles. Using time to relapse in the second phase of the study, a survival analysis is performed on the partitioned data. The optimal partitioning results identify prototypical profiles that distinguish whether subjects relapse depending on whether or not they stay on the drug or are randomized to a placebo.
PMCID:3007089
PMID: 21494314
ISSN: 0162-1459
CID: 818032
The Resting Brain: Unconstrained yet Reliable
Shehzad, Zarrar; Kelly, A M Clare; Reiss, Philip T; Gee, Dylan G; Gotimer, Kristin; Uddin, Lucina Q; Lee, Sang Han; Margulies, Daniel S; Roy, Amy Krain; Biswal, Bharat B; Petkova, Eva; Castellanos, F Xavier; Milham, Michael P
Recent years have witnessed an upsurge in the usage of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine functional connectivity (fcMRI), both in normal and pathological populations. Despite this increasing popularity, concerns about the psychologically unconstrained nature of the 'resting-state' remain. Across studies, the patterns of functional connectivity detected are remarkably consistent. However, the test-retest reliability for measures of resting state fcMRI measures has not been determined. Here, we quantify the test-retest reliability, using resting scans from 26 participants at 3 different time points. Specifically, we assessed intersession (>5 months apart), intrasession (<1 h apart), and multiscan (across all 3 scans) reliability and consistency for both region-of-interest and voxel-wise analyses. For both approaches, we observed modest to high reliability across connections, dependent upon 3 predictive factors: 1) correlation significance (significantly nonzero > nonsignificant), 2) correlation valence (positive > negative), and 3) network membership (default mode > task positive network). Short- and long-term measures of the consistency of global connectivity patterns were highly robust. Finally, hierarchical clustering solutions were highly reproducible, both across participants and sessions. Our findings provide a solid foundation for continued examination of resting state fcMRI in typical and atypical populations
PMCID:3896030
PMID: 19221144
ISSN: 1460-2199
CID: 92918
A developmental approach to complex PTSD: childhood and adult cumulative trauma as predictors of symptom complexity
Cloitre, Marylene; Stolbach, Bradley C; Herman, Judith L; van der Kolk, Bessel; Pynoos, Robert; Wang, Jing; Petkova, Eva
Exposure to multiple traumas, particularly in childhood, has been proposed to result in a complex of symptoms that includes posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as well as a constrained, but variable group of symptoms that highlight self-regulatory disturbances. The relationship between accumulated exposure to different types of traumatic events and total number of different types of symptoms (symptom complexity) was assessed in an adult clinical sample (N = 582) and a child clinical sample (N = 152). Childhood cumulative trauma but not adulthood trauma predicted increasing symptom complexity in adults. Cumulative trauma predicted increasing symptom complexity in the child sample. Results suggest that Complex PTSD symptoms occur in both adult and child samples in a principled, rule-governed way and that childhood experiences significantly influenced adult symptoms
PMID: 19795402
ISSN: 1573-6598
CID: 138380
Predicting potential placebo effect in drug treated subjects
Petkova, Eva; Tarpey, Thaddeus; Govindarajulu, Usha
Non-specific responses to treatment (commonly known as placebo response) are pervasive when treating mental illness. Subjects treated with an active drug may respond in part due to non-specific aspects of the treatment, i.e, those not related to the chemical effect of the drug. To determine the extent a subject responds due to the chemical effect of a drug, one must disentangle the specific drug effect from the non-specific placebo effect. This paper presents a unique statistical model that allows for the separate prediction of a specific effect and non-specific effects in drug treated subjects. Data from a clinical trial comparing fluoxetine to a placebo for treating depression is used to illustrate this methodology.
PMCID:3085382
PMID: 21556319
ISSN: 1557-4679
CID: 818042
Mentoring in psychiatric residency programs: a survey of chief residents
Lis, Lea DeFrancisci; Wood, William C; Petkova, Eva; Shatkin, Jess
OBJECTIVE: Mentorship is an important component of graduate education. This study assessed the perceptions of general psychiatry chief residents regarding the adequacy of mentorship provided during training. METHODS: The authors surveyed 229 chief residents participating in the APA National Chief Residents Leadership Program in 2004 and 2005. The survey assessed domains such as work hours, didactics, home and family life, and mentorship. RESULTS: Of the chief psychiatric residents surveyed, 49% reported that they did not have a clearly defined career development mentor, and 39% reported that they did not feel adequately mentored. Gender, race/ethnicity, marital status, moonlighting, medical school (American versus international), and type of residency program (academic versus community based) did not show significant association with either 'having a clearly defined mentor' or 'feeling adequately mentored,' based on chi-squared tests for independence. Chief residents who had authored peer-reviewed publications were significantly more likely to report having a clearly defined mentor and to feel adequately mentored than those who did not author publications. Logistic regression analysis showed that having a clearly defined mentor was associated with twice the odds for feeling well prepared to practice psychiatry upon graduation compared with those who did not have a clearly defined mentor, even after controlling for gender, race, medical school, and residency program type. CONCLUSION: Half of the psychiatric chief residents surveyed reported the lack of a clearly defined career development mentor. In addition, a chief resident's response of lacking a clear mentor was associated with the perception of being less prepared to practice psychiatry upon graduation. Psychiatric residency training programs may benefit from further clarification and implementation of effective mentorship programs
PMID: 19690111
ISSN: 1545-7230
CID: 114733
A randomized trial comparing telemedicine case management with usual care in older, ethnically diverse, medically underserved patients with diabetes mellitus: 5 year results of the IDEATel study
Shea, Steven; Weinstock, Ruth S; Teresi, Jeanne A; Palmas, Walter; Starren, Justin; Cimino, James J; Lai, Albert M; Field, Lesley; Morin, Philip C; Goland, Robin; Izquierdo, Roberto E; Ebner, Susana; Silver, Stephanie; Petkova, Eva; Kong, Jian; Eimicke, Joseph P
CONTEXT Telemedicine is a promising but largely unproven technology for providing case management services to patients with chronic conditions and lower access to care. OBJECTIVES To examine the effectiveness of a telemedicine intervention to achieve clinical management goals in older, ethnically diverse, medically underserved patients with diabetes. DESIGN, Setting, and Patients A randomized controlled trial was conducted, comparing telemedicine case management to usual care, with blinded outcome evaluation, in 1,665 Medicare recipients with diabetes, aged >/= 55 years, residing in federally designated medically underserved areas of New York State. Interventions Home telemedicine unit with nurse case management versus usual care. Main Outcome Measures The primary endpoints assessed over 5 years of follow-up were hemoglobin A1c (HgbA1c), low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and blood pressure levels. RESULTS Intention-to-treat mixed models showed that telemedicine achieved net overall reductions over five years of follow-up in the primary endpoints (HgbA1c, p = 0.001; LDL, p < 0.001; systolic and diastolic blood pressure, p = 0.024; p < 0.001). Estimated differences (95% CI) in year 5 were 0.29 (0.12, 0.46)% for HgbA1c, 3.84 (-0.08, 7.77) mg/dL for LDL cholesterol, and 4.32 (1.93, 6.72) mm Hg for systolic and 2.64 (1.53, 3.74) mm Hg for diastolic blood pressure. There were 176 deaths in the intervention group and 169 in the usual care group (hazard ratio 1.01 [0.82, 1.24]). CONCLUSIONS Telemedicine case management resulted in net improvements in HgbA1c, LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure levels over 5 years in medically underserved Medicare beneficiaries. Mortality was not different between the groups, although power was limited. Trial Registration http://clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00271739
PMCID:2705246
PMID: 19390093
ISSN: 1067-5027
CID: 114735