Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 pandemic is creating severe issues for healthcare and broad social structures, exposing societal vulnerabilities. Among the populations affected by COVID-19 are people engaged in substance use, such as people who smoke; vape (e-cigarette use); use opioids, cannabis, alcohol, or psychoactive prescription drugs; or have a substance use disorder (SUD). Monitoring substance use and SUD during the pandemic is essential, as people who engage in substance use or present with SUD are at greater risk for COVID-19, and the economic and social changes resulting from the pandemic may aggravate SUD. There have been several reviews focused on COVID-19 in relation to substance use and SUD. Reviews generally did not consider on a large range of substance use variants or SUDs. We plan a scoping review that seeks to fill gaps in our current understanding of substance use and SUD, in the COVID-19 era. METHODS:A scoping review focused on substance use and SUD, in relation to COVID-19, will be conducted. We will search (from January 2020 onwards) Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Africa-Wide Information, Web of Science Core Collection, Embase, Global Health, WHO Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease Database, WHO Global Index Medicus, PsycINFO, PubMed, Middle Eastern Central Asian Studies, CINAHL Complete, and Sociological Abstracts. Grey literature will be identified using Disaster Lit, Google Scholar, HSRProj, governmental websites, and clinical trials registries (e.g., ClinicalTrial.gov , World Health Organization, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and International Standard Randomized Con-trolled Trial Number registry). Study selection will conform to Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewers' Manual 2015 Methodology for JBI Scoping Reviews. Only English language, original studies investigating substance use and SUD, in relation to COVID-19 in all populations and settings, will be considered for inclusion. Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, full-text articles, and abstract data. A narrative summary of findings will be conducted. Data analysis will involve quantitative (e.g., frequencies) and qualitative (e.g., content and thematic analysis) methods. DISCUSSION:Original research is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 on substance use and SUD. The planned scoping review will help to address this gap. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION:Open Science Framework (osf/io/tzgm5).

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE:Individuals with poor physical and mental health may face elevated risk for suicide, particularly suicide by firearm. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study used statewide, longitudinally-linked ED patient record and mortality data to examine 12-month incidence of firearm suicide among emergency department (ED) patients presenting with a range of physical health problems. Participants included all residents presenting to a California ED in 2009-2013 with nonfatal visits for somatic diagnoses hypothesized to increase suicide risk, including myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, cancer, back pain, headache, joint disorder, and injuries. For each patient diagnostic group, we calculated rates of firearm suicide per 100,000 person-years and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) relative to the demographically matched California population. RESULTS:Firearm suicide rates per 100,000 person-years ranged from 9.6 (among patients presenting with unintentional injury) to 55.1 (patients with cancer diagnoses), with SMRs from 1.48 to 7.45 (all p<0.05). SMRs for patients with cardiovascular conditions ranged from 2.45 to 5.10. Males and older individuals had higher firearm suicide rates, and there was substantial between-group variability in the proportion of suicide decedents who used a firearm. CONCLUSIONS:ED patients presenting with deliberate self-harm injuries, substance use, and cancer were especially at risk for firearm suicide. To avoid missed suicide-prevention opportunities, EDs should implement evidence-based suicide interventions as a best practice for their patients.

OBJECTIVES:The rapid increase in opioid overdose and opioid use disorder (OUD) over the past 20 years is a complex problem associated with significant economic costs for healthcare systems and society. Simulation models have been developed to capture and identify ways to manage this complexity and to evaluate the potential costs of different strategies to reduce overdoses and OUD. A review of simulation-based economic evaluations is warranted to fully characterize this set of literature. METHODS:A systematic review of simulation-based economic evaluation (SBEE) studies in opioid research was initiated by searches in PubMed, EMBASE, and EbscoHOST. Extraction of a predefined set of items and a quality assessment were performed for each study. RESULTS:The screening process resulted in 23 SBEE studies ranging by year of publication from 1999 to 2019. Methodological quality of the cost analyses was moderately high. The most frequently evaluated strategies were methadone and buprenorphine maintenance treatments; the only harm reduction strategy explored was naloxone distribution. These strategies were consistently found to be cost-effective, especially naloxone distribution and methadone maintenance. Prevention strategies were limited to abuse-deterrent opioid formulations. Less than half (39%) of analyses adopted a societal perspective in their estimation of costs and effects from an opioid-related intervention. Prevention strategies and studies' accounting for patient and physician preference, changing costs, or result stratification were largely ignored in these SBEEs. CONCLUSION:The review shows consistently favorable cost analysis findings for naloxone distribution strategies and opioid agonist treatments and identifies major gaps for future research.

BACKGROUND:The rapid growth of opioid abuse and related mortality across the United States has spurred the development of predictive models for the allocation of public health resources. These models should characterize heterogeneous growth across states using a drug epidemic framework that enables assessments of epidemic onset, rates of growth, and limited capacities for epidemic growth. METHODS:We used opioid overdose mortality data for 146 North and South Carolina counties from 2001 through 2014 to compare the retrodictive and predictive performance of a logistic growth model that parameterizes onsets, growth, and carrying capacity within a traditional Bayesian Poisson space-time model. RESULTS:In fitting the models to past data, the performance of the logistic growth model was superior to the standard Bayesian Poisson space-time model (deviance information criterion: 8088 vs. 8256), with reduced spatial and independent errors. Predictively, the logistic model more accurately estimated fatality rates 1, 2, and 3 years in the future (root mean squared error medians were lower for 95.7% of counties from 2012 to 2014). Capacity limits were higher in counties with greater population size, percent population age 45 to 64, and percent white population. Epidemic onset was associated with greater same-year and past-year incidence of overdose hospitalizations. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Growth in annual rates of opioid fatalities was capacity limited, heterogeneous across counties, and spatially correlated, requiring spatial epidemic models for the accurate and reliable prediction of future outcomes related to opioid abuse. Indicators of risk are identifiable and can be used to predict future mortality outcomes.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will have a lasting impact on public health. In addition to the direct effects of COVID-19 infection, physical distancing and quarantine interventions have indirect effects on health. While necessary, physical distancing interventions to control the spread of COVID-19 could have multiple impacts on people living with opioid use disorder, including impacts on mental health that lead to greater substance use, the availability of drug supply, the ways that people use drugs, treatment-seeking behaviors, and retention in care. The degree to which COVID-19 will impact the opioid epidemic and through which of the possible mechanisms that we discuss is important to monitor. We employed simulation modeling to demonstrate the potential impact of physical distancing on overdose mortality.

BACKGROUND:In 2016, California updated its prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP), adding two key features: automated proactive reports to prescribers and mandatory registration for prescribers and pharmacists. The effects of these changes on prescribing patterns have not yet been examined. We aimed to evaluate the joint effect of these two PDMP features on county-level prescribing practices in California. METHODS:Using county-level quarterly data from 2012 to 2017, we estimated the absolute change associated with the implementation of these two PDMP features in seven prescribing indicators in California versus a control group comprising counties in Florida and Washington: opioid prescription rate per 1000 residents; patients' mean daily opioid dosage in milligrams of morphine equivalents[MME]; prescribers' mean daily MME prescribed; prescribers' mean number of opioid prescriptions per day; percentage of patients getting >90 MME/day; percentage of days with overlapping prescriptions for opioids and benzodiazepines; multiple opioid provider episodes per 100,000 residents. RESULTS:Proactive reports and mandatory registration were associated with a 7.7 MME decrease in patients' mean daily opioid dose (95 %CI: -11.4, -2.9); a 1.8 decrease in the percentage of patients prescribed high-dose opioids (95 %CI: -2.3, -0.9); and a 6.3 MME decrease in prescribers' mean daily dose prescribed (95 %CI: -10.0, -1.3). CONCLUSIONS:California's implementation of these two PDMP features was associated with decreases in the total quantity of opioid MMEs prescribed, and indicators of patients prescribed high-dose opioids compared to states that had PDMP's without these features. Rates of opioid prescribing and other high-risk prescribing patterns remained unchanged.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS/OBJECTIVE:Uruguay and Chile have the highest levels of marijuana use in Latin America and experienced consistent increases over the last 2 decades. We aim to calculate separate age-period-cohort (APC) effects for past-year marijuana use in Uruguay and Chile, which have similar epidemiologic and demographic profiles, but diverging paths in cannabis regulation. DESIGN/METHODS:Age, period and cohort study in which period and cohort effects were estimated as first derivative deviations from their linear age trend, separately by country and gender. SETTING/METHODS:Uruguay and Chile. PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:General population between 15 and 64 years of age. MEASUREMENTS/METHODS:Past-year marijuana use from household surveys with five repeated cross-sections between 2001-2018 in Uruguay (median n=4,616) and 13 between 1994-2018 in Chile (median n=15,895). FINDINGS/RESULTS:Marijuana use prevalence in both countries peaked at 20-24 years of age and increased consistently across calendar years. Period effects were strong and positive, indicating that increases in use were evident across age groups. Relative to 2006 (reference year), Chilean period effects were about 48% lower in 1994 and about four times higher in 2018; in Uruguay, these effects were about 56% lower in 2001 and almost quadrupled in 2018. We observed non-linear cohort effects in Chile, and similar patterns in Uruguay for the overall sample and women. In both countries, marijuana use increased for cohorts born between the mid-1970s and early 1990s even in the context of rising period effects. Prevalence was consistently larger for men, but period increases were stronger in women. CONCLUSIONS:Age-period-cohort effects on past-year marijuana use appear to have been similar in Chile and Uruguay, decreasing with age and increasing over time at heterogeneous growth rates depending on gender and cohort. Current levels of marijuana use, including age and gender disparities, seem to be associated with recent common historical events in these two countries.