Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVES: To estimate global, regional (21 regions) and national (187 countries) sodium intakes in adults in 1990 and 2010. DESIGN: Bayesian hierarchical modelling using all identifiable primary sources. DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY: We searched and obtained published and unpublished data from 142 surveys of 24 h urinary sodium and 103 of dietary sodium conducted between 1980 and 2010 across 66 countries. Dietary estimates were converted to urine equivalents based on 79 pairs of dual measurements. MODELLING METHODS: Bayesian hierarchical modelling used survey data and their characteristics to estimate mean sodium intake, by sex, 5 years age group and associated uncertainty for persons aged 20+ in 187 countries in 1990 and 2010. Country-level covariates were national income/person and composition of food supplies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean sodium intake (g/day) as estimable by 24 h urine collections, without adjustment for non-urinary losses. RESULTS: In 2010, global mean sodium intake was 3.95 g/day (95% uncertainty interval: 3.89 to 4.01). This was nearly twice the WHO recommended limit of 2 g/day and equivalent to 10.06 (9.88-10.21) g/day of salt. Intake in men was approximately 10% higher than in women; differences by age were small. Intakes were highest in East Asia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe (mean >4.2 g/day) and in Central Europe and Middle East/North Africa (3.9-4.2 g/day). Regional mean intakes in North America, Western Europe and Australia/New Zealand ranged from 3.4 to 3.8 g/day. Intakes were lower (<3.3 g/day), but more uncertain, in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Between 1990 and 2010, modest, but uncertain, increases in sodium intakes were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Sodium intakes exceed the recommended levels in almost all countries with small differences by age and sex. Virtually all populations would benefit from sodium reduction, supported by enhanced surveillance.

OBJECTIVE: Limited studies suggest that blood pressure variability over time is a risk factor of long-term cardiovascular outcomes. However, most of these were in populations with pre-existing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and studies in general population are lacking. METHODS: The study included 11,153 participants in a population-based, prospective cohort study in Araihazar, Bangladesh. Resting blood pressure was measured at baseline and every two years thereafter. Participants were followed up for an average of 6.5years (2002-2009). RESULTS: Male gender, older age, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP), and absence of betel leaf use were independently positively associated with greater SBP variability over time. There was a significant association between SBP variability and the risk of death from overall CVD, especially from major CVD events. The positive association with the risk of death from any cause and stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models was attenuated in fully-adjusted models. In addition, the hazard ratio (HR) of stroke mortality was greater for individuals with both high baseline and high SBP variability. Similar patterns of HRs were observed for all-cause and CVD mortalities. CONCLUSION: In this rural Bangladeshi population, variability in SBP contributes to the risk of death from CVD and may further potentiate the increased mortality risk associated with high SBP.

BACKGROUND: Arsenic exposure through drinking water is a serious global health issue. Observational studies suggest that individuals who metabolize arsenic efficiently are at lower risk for toxicities such as arsenical skin lesions. Using two single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs) in the 10q24.32 region (near AS3MT) that show independent associations with metabolism efficiency, Mendelian randomization can be used to assess whether the association between metabolism efficiency and skin lesions is likely to be causal. METHODS: Using data on 2060 arsenic-exposed Bangladeshi individuals, we estimated associations for two 10q24.32 SNPs with relative concentrations of three urinary arsenic species (representing metabolism efficiency): inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonic acid(MMA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA). SNP-based predictions of iAs%, MMA% and DMA% were tested for association with skin lesion status among 2483 cases and 2857 controls. RESULTS: Causal odds ratios for skin lesions were 0.90 (95% confidence interval[CI]: 0.87, 0.95), 1.19 (CI: 1.10, 1.28) and 1.23 (CI: 1.12, 1.36)for a one standard deviation increase in DMA%, MMA% and iAs%,respectively. We demonstrated genotype-arsenic interaction, with metabolism-related variants showing stronger associations with skin lesion risk among individuals with high arsenic exposure (synergy index: 1.37; CI: 1.11, 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: We provide strong evidence for a causal relationship between arsenic metabolism efficiency and skin lesion risk. Mendelian randomization can be used to assess the causal role of arsenic exposure and metabolism in a wide array of health conditions.exposure and metabolism in a wide array of health conditions.Developing interventions that increase arsenic metabolism efficiency are likely to reduce the impact of arsenic exposure on health.

The effect of dietary composition on mortality in low-income countries is largely unknown. We evaluated whether percentages of dietary energy derived from protein, fat and carbohydrates were associated with all-cause and cancer mortalities in a Bangladeshi population. Data from a prospective population-based cohort study of 17,244 men and women were used. Percentages of dietary energy derived from protein, fat and carbohydrates, assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire at baseline, were analyzed in relation to mortality over an average of 9 years (155,126 person-years) of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios for all cause, all cancer and cancers of the digestive organs mortalities. Percentage of dietary energy from protein appeared to be significantly associated with cancer mortality. Fully adjusted hazard ratios for cancer mortality in increasing tertiles of percentage of dietary energy from protein were 1.0 (reference), 1.21 (0.73, 2.00) and 1.84 (1.08, 3.15) (p for trend = 0.023). These associations were much stronger for deaths from cancers of the digestive organs with fully adjusted hazard ratios in increasing tertiles of percentage of dietary energy from protein being 1.0 (reference), 2.25 (0.91, 5.59) and 4.85 (1.88, 12.51) (p for trend = 0.001). No significant associations in relation to cancer-related mortality were observed for percentage of dietary energy from fat. Novel findings from this prospective study show protein is an important risk factor or proxy to an important risk factor for cancer mortality especially from digestive organ cancers in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of evidence that prenatal and early childhood exposure to arsenic from drinking water can have serious long-term health implications. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to understand the potential long-term health and disease risks associated with in utero and early life exposure to arsenic, as well as to examine parallels between findings from epidemiological studies with those from experimental animal models. METHODS: We examined the current literature and identified relevant studies through PubMed by using combinations of the search terms "arsenic", "in utero", "transplacental", "prenatal" and "fetal". DISCUSSION: Ecological studies have indicated associations between in utero and/or early life exposure to arsenic at high levels and increases in mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease. Additional data from epidemiologic studies suggest intermediate effects in early life that are related to risk of these and other outcomes in adulthood. Experimental animal studies largely support studies in humans, with strong evidence of transplacental carcinogenesis, atherosclerosis and respiratory disease, as well as insight into potential underlying mechanisms of arsenic's health effects. CONCLUSIONS: As millions worldwide are exposed to arsenic and evidence continues to support a role for in utero arsenic exposure in the development of a range of later life diseases, there is a need for more prospective studies examining arsenic's relation to early indicators of disease and at lower exposure levels.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between body mass index and mortality from overall cardiovascular disease and specific subtypes of cardiovascular disease in east and south Asians. DESIGN: Pooled analyses of 20 prospective cohorts in Asia, including data from 835,082 east Asians and 289,815 south Asians. Cohorts were identified through a systematic search of the literature in early 2008, followed by a survey that was sent to each cohort to assess data availability. SETTING: General populations in east Asia (China, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, and Korea) and south Asia (India and Bangladesh). PARTICIPANTS: 1,124,897 men and women (mean age 53.4 years at baseline). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of death from overall cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, and (in east Asians only) stroke subtypes. RESULTS: 49,184 cardiovascular deaths (40,791 in east Asians and 8393 in south Asians) were identified during a mean follow-up of 9.7 years. East Asians with a body mass index of 25 or above had a raised risk of death from overall cardiovascular disease, compared with the reference range of body mass index (values 22.5-24.9; hazard ratio 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.15), 1.27 (1.20 to 1.35), 1.59 (1.43 to 1.76), 1.74 (1.47 to 2.06), and 1.97 (1.44 to 2.71) for body mass index ranges 25.0-27.4, 27.5-29.9, 30.0-32.4, 32.5-34.9, and 35.0-50.0, respectively). This association was similar for risk of death from coronary heart disease and ischaemic stroke; for haemorrhagic stroke, the risk of death was higher at body mass index values of 27.5 and above. Elevated risk of death from cardiovascular disease was also observed at lower categories of body mass index (hazard ratio 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.39) and 2.16 (1.37 to 3.40) for body mass index ranges 15.0-17.4 and <15.0, respectively), compared with the reference range. In south Asians, the association between body mass index and mortality from cardiovascular disease was less pronounced than that in east Asians. South Asians had an increased risk of death observed for coronary heart disease only in individuals with a body mass index greater than 35 (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 3.12). CONCLUSIONS: Body mass index shows a U shaped association with death from overall cardiovascular disease among east Asians: increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease is observed at lower and higher ranges of body mass index. A high body mass index is a risk factor for mortality from overall cardiovascular disease and for specific diseases, including coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and haemorrhagic stroke in east Asians. Higher body mass index is a weak risk factor for mortality from cardiovascular disease in south Asians.

RATIONALE: Exposure to arsenic through drinking water has been linked to respiratory symptoms, obstructive lung diseases, and mortality from respiratory diseases. Limited evidence for the deleterious effects on lung function exists among individuals exposed to a high dose of arsenic. OBJECTIVES: To determine the deleterious effects on lung function that exist among individuals exposed to a high dose of arsenic. METHODS: In 950 individuals who presented with any respiratory symptom among a population-based cohort of 20,033 adults, we evaluated the association between arsenic exposure, measured by well water and urinary arsenic concentrations measured at baseline, and post-bronchodilator-administered pulmonary function assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For every one SD increase in baseline water arsenic exposure, we observed a lower level of FEV1 (-46.5 ml; P < 0.0005) and FVC (-53.1 ml; P < 0.01) in regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, socioeconomic status, betel nut use, and arsenical skin lesions status. Similar inverse relationships were observed between baseline urinary arsenic and FEV1 (-48.3 ml; P < 0.005) and FVC (-55.2 ml; P < 0.01) in adjusted models. Our analyses also demonstrated a dose-related decrease in lung function with increasing levels of baseline water and urinary arsenic. This association remained significant in never-smokers and individuals without skin lesions, and was stronger in male smokers. Among male smokers and individuals with skin lesions, every one SD increase in water arsenic was related to a significant reduction of FEV1 (-74.4 ml, P < 0.01; and -116.1 ml, P < 0.05) and FVC (-72.8 ml, P = 0.02; and -146.9 ml, P = 0.004), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This large population-based study confirms that arsenic exposure is associated with impaired lung function and the deleterious effect is evident at low- to moderate-dose range.

BACKGROUND: Total or red meat intake has been shown to be associated with a higher risk of mortality in Western populations, but little is known of the risks in Asian populations. OBJECTIVE: We examined temporal trends in meat consumption and associations between meat intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia. DESIGN: We used ecological data from the United Nations to compare country-specific meat consumption. Separately, 8 Asian prospective cohort studies in Bangladesh, China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan consisting of 112,310 men and 184,411 women were followed for 6.6 to 15.6 y with 24,283 all-cause, 9558 cancer, and 6373 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We estimated the study-specific HRs and 95% CIs by using a Cox regression model and pooled them by using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Red meat consumption was substantially lower in the Asian countries than in the United States. Fish and seafood consumption was higher in Japan and Korea than in the United States. Our pooled analysis found no association between intake of total meat (red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood) and risks of all-cause, CVD, or cancer mortality among men and women; HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality from a comparison of the highest with the lowest quartile were 1.02 (0.91, 1.15) in men and 0.93 (0.86, 1.01) in women. CONCLUSIONS: Ecological data indicate an increase in meat intake in Asian countries; however, our pooled analysis did not provide evidence of a higher risk of mortality for total meat intake and provided evidence of an inverse association with red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood. Red meat intake was inversely associated with CVD mortality in men and with cancer mortality in women in Asian countries.