Faculty Bibliography

OBJECTIVE: This article discusses broad statistical issues common to much medical research: intent-to-treat analysis vs. completers analysis; clustered hierarchical and repeated-measures data; missing data and dropouts; and assessment of direct, indirect, and total effects. Traditional approaches and statistical techniques are reviewed and contrasted with modern methods for analysis of medical studies. METHOD: The concepts are introduced and discussed in general terms; they are illustrated with an example. The example comes from a study of the effect of residence in special care units (SCUs) for demented elderly on the daily function of nursing homes residents. More than 700 residents from 22 nursing facilities, residing in either an SCU or a non-SCU were assessed three times at approximate 6-month intervals. RESULTS: Results from both the application of traditional statistical techniques and modern methods for the analysis of repeated-measures of hierarchical multicenter data are presented, interpreted, and compared. Advantages and shortcomings of these approaches are discussed. CONCLUSION: This article advocates the use of mixed models and proper causal reasoning and terminology in the analysis and publication of results from studies on aging and life course

Some studies indicate that the blind in clinical trials of the efficacy of antidepressant drugs is less than perfect. It has been suggested that, as a consequence of this incomplete blind, biased raters inflate efficacy and that, in fact, these drugs are relatively ineffective. However, in the literature, we could find no prior attempt to quantify rater bias and, thus, measure its contribution to claims of antidepressant efficacy. We used the distribution of SCL-90 (Symptom Check List) depression scale scores to derive a patient-based effect size, and contrasted this with the clinician-based effect size. We propose the difference between these two effect sizes (patient self-rating and clinician-derived) to be an indirect measure of bias. If patients had a prodrug bias, this method would be invalid. However the response rate from studies with active placebo suggest a patient prodrug bias is unlikely. The effect sizes derived from patient self-ratings are smaller than those derived from clinician ratings. This allows for the possibility that some clinician ratings were biased. However, quantifying the effect of bias suggests that it was insufficient to invalidate the original study conclusions based on clinician ratings, because the proportion of responders, based on patient self-ratings, differed significantly between the two drugs and placebo. Their 95% confidence intervals (CI) did not overlap. This analysis allows that some clinician ratings may be biased. However, the extent of bias appears insufficient to alter conclusions based on clinician ratings regarding efficacy of antidepressant drugs in this trial. Application of our approach in other trials is necessary to establish generalizability.

OBJECTIVE: The atypical subtype of depression appears to be both well validated and common. Although monoamine oxidase inhibitors are effective in treating atypical depression, their side effects and prescription-associated dietary restrictions reduce their suitability as a first-line treatment. The objective of this study was to estimate the efficacy of the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) fluoxetine in the treatment of major depression with atypical features. METHOD: One hundred fifty-four subjects with DSM-IV major depression who met the Columbia criteria for atypical depression were randomly assigned to receive fluoxetine, imipramine, or placebo for a 10-week clinical trial. Imipramine was included because its known efficacy for treatment of atypical depression helped to calibrate the appropriateness of the study group. RESULTS: In both intention-to-treat and completer groups, the effectiveness of both fluoxetine and imipramine was significantly better than that of placebo. The two medications did not differ from each other in effectiveness. Significantly more patients dropped out of treatment with imipramine than with fluoxetine. Before treatment, patients on average rated themselves as very impaired on psychological dimensions of general health and moderately impaired on physical dimensions, compared with population norms. The self-ratings of patients who responded to treatment essentially normalized on these measures. CONCLUSIONS: Despite earlier data that SSRIs might be the treatment of choice, fluoxetine appeared to be no better than imipramine in the treatment of atypical depression, although fluoxetine was better tolerated than imipramine.

BACKGROUND: In spite of the virtually ubiquitous nature of the initial 10-day placebo run-in period (IPR) in drug trials, there is little empirical data establishing its relevance. METHOD: Data from 593 subjects were examined retrospectively to determine whether or not the prognosis of subjects minimally improved during the IPR was different to those who were unimproved. The IPR period was single-blind and was followed by a six-week double-blind phase in all studies. RESULTS: Twenty-six per cent of the subjects were minimally improved and 74% were unimproved. Approximately 10% of the subjects who were much improved were not followed systematically. Across a range of diagnosis, severity and chronicity subjects minimally improved (versus unimproved) after IPR had a more favourable prognosis whether assigned to drug or placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Change during IPR appears to be a meaningful predictor. Stratification should be considered in future antidepressant studies.

This study was designed to investigate the biological underpinnings of the observed deficit in satiety in patients with bulimia nervosa. Eight women with bulimia nervosa and 10 age- and weight-matched control subjects consumed three laboratory meals consisting of 200, 400, and 600 g of a radiolabeled liquid meal. For 1 h after each meal, blood samples were obtained at 10-min intervals for measurement of cholecystokinin concentration and gastric emptying was measured. Subjects also completed perceptual rating scales at 10-min intervals. Compared with control subjects, patients with bulimia nervosa showed a blunting of postprandial cholecystokinin release, particularly with larger meal sizes, as well as delayed gastric emptying. Increasing meal size was associated with increased desire to binge eat in patients but not in control subjects. These data lend support to a model in which increased gastric capacity, perhaps resulting from repeated binge eating, gives rise to delayed gastric emptying and blunted postprandial cholecystokinin release, leading to an impaired satiety response, which tends to perpetuate the illness.

BACKGROUND: We attempt to identify the time when patients whose conditions are unimproved while receiving antidepressants are unlikely to respond and should have their treatment changed. METHODS: A total of 593 patients were studied. The course of treatment for patients was examined to determine the weeks at which patients who received drug therapy had a better chance of being rated as responders at the study end (week 6) vs patients who received placebo. RESULTS: At the end of week 3, 19 (32%) of the 59 patients who received drug therapy and 6 (10%) of the 57 patients who received placebo and who never minimally improved were rated as responders at week 6. For those who showed no improvement by week 4, the effects of drug therapy and the placebo were equal. Patients who received drug therapy and whose conditions were unimproved but who had been minimally improved at some point had a superior prognosis with drug therapy vs placebo until week 4. Of those unimproved at week 4 but minimally improved at some point previously, 20 (39%) of the 51 patients who received drug therapy vs 3 (8%) of the 36 patients who received placebo were rated as responders at week 6. Of the 75 patients who minimally improved while receiving drug therapy at the end of week 5, 33 (44%) had a chance of being rated a responder at the end of week 6 vs 9 (26%) of the 35 patients receiving placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Patients tolerant of an adequate dose, whose conditions have never been at least minimally improved by the end of week 4, should have their treatment regimen altered. These patients represented a minority of drug-treated patients in the sample studied (ie, 39/392 [10%]). Patients whose conditions minimally improve at some prior week but not after week 5 should have their treatment changed. Patients whose conditions minimally improve in week 5 should continue treatment until week 6.