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Which adolescents develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood? Using population-representative longitudinal data to inform universal risk assessment
Meier, M H; Hall, W; Caspi, A; Belsky, D W; Cerda, M; Harrington, H L; Houts, R; Poulton, R; Moffitt, T E
BACKGROUND:To our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood. METHOD/METHODS:Participants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ⩾3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years. RESULTS:A cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80). CONCLUSIONS:A cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood.
PMID: 26620720
ISSN: 1469-8978
CID: 3301982
Do Sexual Networks of Men Who Have Sex with Men in New York City Differ by Race/Ethnicity?
Tieu, Hong-Van; Nandi, Vijay; Hoover, Donald R; Lucy, Debbie; Stewart, Kiwan; Frye, Victoria; Cerda, Magdalena; Ompad, Danielle; Latkin, Carl; Koblin, Beryl A
The United States HIV epidemic disproportionately affects Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM). This disparity might be partially explained by differences in social and sexual network structure and composition. A total of 1267 MSM in New York City completed an ACASI survey and egocentric social and sexual network inventory about their sex partners in the past 3 months, and underwent HIV testing. Social and sexual network structure and composition were compared by race/ethnicity of the egos: black, non-Hispanic (N = 365 egos), white, non-Hispanic (N = 466), and Hispanic (N = 436). 21.1% were HIV-positive by HIV testing; 17.2% reported serodiscordant and serostatus unknown unprotected anal/vaginal intercourse (SDUI) in the last 3 months. Black MSM were more likely than white and Hispanic MSM to report exclusively having partners of same race/ethnicity. Black and Hispanic MSM had more HIV-positive and unknown status partners than white MSM. White men were more likely to report overlap of social and sex partners than black and Hispanic men. No significant differences by race/ethnicity were found for network size, density, having concurrent partners, or having partners with >/=10 years age difference. Specific network composition characteristics may explain racial/ethnic disparities in HIV infection rates among MSM, including HIV status of sex partners in networks and lack of social support within sexual networks. Network structural characteristics such as size and density do not appear to have such an impact. These data add to our understanding of the complexity of social factors affecting black MSM and Hispanic MSM in the U.S.
PMCID:4717505
PMID: 26745143
ISSN: 1557-7449
CID: 2598072
Beyond METs: types of physical activity and depression among older adults
Joshi, Spruha; Mooney, Stephen J; Kennedy, Gary J; Benjamin, Ebele O; Ompad, Danielle; Rundle, Andrew G; Beard, John R; Cerda, Magdalena
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: physical activity may be beneficial in reducing depression incidence among the elderly. A key unanswered question is whether certain types of physical activity are particularly associated with decreased depression incidence. We examined the relationship between quantity and type of physical activity and subsequent depression using longitudinal data from elderly adults in New York City (NYC). METHODS: we followed 3,497 adults aged 65-75 living in NYC for three years. Total physical activity was measured using the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) and type of physical activity was measured using a latent class analysis of PASE item responses. We used generalised estimating equations to measure the relationship between quantity and latent class of physical activity at waves 1-2 and depression at waves 2-3, controlling for wave-1 depression. RESULTS: individuals in the second highest quartile (50-75%) (odds ratio (OR) = 0.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23, 0.88) and highest quartile of activity (OR = 0.31; 95% CI = 0.16, 0.63) had lower odds of depression. Among all subjects, athletic types (OR = 0.25; 95% CI = 0.12, 0.51) and walker types (OR = 0.58; 95% CI = 0.34, 0.99) had lower odds of depression. Among non-disabled participants, walkers (OR = 0.36; 95% CI = 0.18, 0.73), athletic types (OR = 0.14; 95% CI = 0.06, 0.32), domestic/gardening types (OR = 0.29; 95% CI = 0.12, 0.73) and domestic/gardening athletic types (OR = 0.13; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.75) had lower odds of depression. CONCLUSION: respondents who practised the highest levels of physical activity and who performed athletic activities were at lower risk for depression. Interventions aimed at promoting athletic physical activity among older adults may generate benefits for mental health.
PMCID:4711656
PMID: 26764399
ISSN: 1468-2834
CID: 2598062
Patterns of Physical Activity Among Older Adults in New York City: A Latent Class Approach
Mooney, Stephen J; Joshi, Spruha; Cerda, Magdalena; Quinn, James W; Beard, John R; Kennedy, Gary J; Benjamin, Ebele O; Ompad, Danielle C; Rundle, Andrew G
INTRODUCTION: Little research to date has explored typologies of physical activity among older adults. An understanding of physical activity patterns may help to both determine the health benefits of different types of activity and target interventions to increase activity levels in older adults. This analysis, conducted in 2014, used a latent class analysis approach to characterize patterns of physical activity in a cohort of older adults. METHODS: A total of 3,497 men and women aged 65-75 years living in New York City completed the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) in 2011. PASE scale items were used to classify subjects into latent classes. Multinomial regression was then used to relate individual and neighborhood characteristics to class membership. RESULTS: Five latent classes were identified: "least active," "walkers," "domestic/gardening," "athletic," and "domestic/gardening athletic." Individual-level predictors, including more education, higher income, and better self-reported health, were associated with membership in the more-active classes, particularly the athletic classes. Residential characteristics, including living in single-family housing and living in the lower-density boroughs of New York City, were predictive of membership in one of the domestic/gardening classes. Class membership was associated with BMI even after controlling for total PASE score. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that individual and neighborhood characteristics are associated with distinct physical activity patterns in a group of older urban adults. These patterns are associated with body habitus independent of overall activity.
PMCID:4546879
PMID: 26091927
ISSN: 1873-2607
CID: 2597782
Erratum to: Nonmedical prescription drug use among US young adults by educational attainment [Correction]
Martins, Silvia S; Kim, June H; Chen, Lian-Yu; Levin, Deysia; Keyes, Katherine M; Cerda, Magdalena; Storr, Carla L
PMID: 25539589
ISSN: 1433-9285
CID: 3300992
How Well Does the Patient Health Questionarre-9 Item "thoughts of you would be better off dead or hurting yourself" Identify Community Residents with Explicit Ideas of Suicide? [Meeting Abstract]
Kennedy, Gary; Beard, John; Cerda, Magdalena; Joshi, Spruha; Rundle, Andrew; Ompad, Danielle; Finkelstein, Ruth; Benjamin, Ebele O; Bader, Caroline
ISI:000350829500158
ISSN: 1545-7214
CID: 2622092
Sexual orientation- and race-based discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior among urban MSM
Frye, Victoria; Nandi, Vijay; Egan, James; Cerda, Magdalena; Greene, Emily; Van Tieu, Hong; Ompad, Danielle C; Hoover, Donald R; Lucy, Debbie; Baez, Eduardo; Koblin, Beryl A
Understanding what social factors are associated with risk of HIV acquisition and transmission among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) is a critical public health goal. Experiencing discrimination may increase risk of HIV infection among MSM. This analysis assessed relations between experiences of sexual orientation- and race-based discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior among MSM in New York City. 1,369 MSM completed a self-administered computerized assessment of past 3-month sexual behavior, experience of social discrimination and other covariates. Regression models assessed relations between recent experience of discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior. Mean age was 32 years; 32 % were white; 32 % Latino/Hispanic; 25 % African American/Black. Of MSM who self-reported HIV-positive or unknown status (377), 7 % (N = 27) reported having unprotected insertive anal intercourse with an HIV-negative or unknown status partner ("HIV transmission risk"). Of MSM who self-reported HIV-negative status (992), 11 % (110) reported unprotected receptive anal intercourse with an HIV-positive or unknown status partner ("HIV acquisition risk"). HIV acquisition risk was positively associated with sexual orientation-based discrimination in home or social neighborhoods, but not race-based discrimination. We observed that sexual orientation-based discrimination was associated with sexual HIV risk behavior among urban-dwelling MSM. Addressing environmental sources of this form of discrimination, as well as the psychological distress that may result, should be prioritized in HIV prevention efforts.
PMCID:4702509
PMID: 25381561
ISSN: 1573-3254
CID: 2597812
Mental health and general wellness in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike
Lowe, Sarah R; Joshi, Spruha; Pietrzak, Robert H; Galea, Sandro; Cerda, Magdalena
Exposure to natural disasters has been linked to a range of adverse outcomes, including mental health problems (e.g., posttraumatic stress symptoms [PTSS], depression), declines in role functioning (e.g., occupational difficulties), and physical health problems (e.g., somatic complaints). However, prior research and theory suggest that the modal postdisaster response in each of these domains is resilience, defined as low levels of symptoms or problems in a given outcome over time, with minimal elevations that are limited to the time period during the disaster and its immediate aftermath. However, the extent to which disaster survivors exhibit mental health wellness (resilience across multiple mental health conditions) or general wellness (resilience across mental health, physical health, and role functioning domains) remains unexplored. The purpose of this study was to quantify mental health and general wellness, and to examine predictors of each form of wellness, in a three-wave population-based study of Hurricane Ike survivors (N = 658). Latent class growth analysis was used to determine the frequency of resilience on four outcomes (PTSS: 74.9%; depression: 57.9%; functional impairment: 45.1%; days of poor health: 52.6%), and cross-tabulations were used to determine the frequency of mental health wellness (51.2%) and general wellness (26.1%). Significant predictors of both mental health and general wellness included lower peri-event emotional reactions and higher community-level collective efficacy; loss of sentimental possessions or pets and disaster-related financial loss were negative predictors of mental health wellness, and loss of personal property was a negative predictor of general wellness. The results suggest that studies focusing on a single postdisaster outcome may have overestimated the prevalence of mental health and general wellness, and that peri-event responses, personal property loss and collective efficacy have a cross-cutting influence across multiple domains of postdisaster functioning.
PMCID:4276466
PMID: 25461873
ISSN: 1873-5347
CID: 1798752
Incident non-medical use of prescription opioids is associated with heroin initiation among U.S. veterans: A prospective cohort study [Meeting Abstract]
Banerjee, G; Edelman, E J; Barry, D T; Becker, W; Cerda, M; Crystal, S; Gaither, J R; Gordon, A J; Gordon, K S; Kerns, R; Martins, S; Fiellin, D A; Marshall, B D
Aims: We assessed whether incident non-medical use of prescription opioids (NMUPO) is associated with heroin initiation among U.S. veterans in primary care who had no prior history of NUMPO or heroin use. Methods: The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) is a prospective cohort study of HIV-infected and uninfected veterans in care. Werestricted our analysis to subjectswhoreported no prior history of injection drug use, heroin use, or NMUPO at baseline. Incident NMUPO and date of heroin initiation were ascertained from surveys administered over six follow up interviews (2002-2012). We used Cox regression to examine the relationship between incident NMUPO and heroin use, adjusting for HIV status, sociodemographics, pain interference, receipt of chronic opioid therapy, and previous diagnosis of PTSD and major depression. Results: Among 3430 eligible participants, the mean age was 49.7 (SD = 10.6) and 2203 (66.4%) were African American. Over the 10-year study period, the incidence of heroin initiation was 2.76 per 100 person-years, and greater among those who reported any NMUPO (log-rank p-value < 0.001). In a multivariable model, incident NMUPO was positively and independently associated with heroin initiation (adjusted hazard ratio = 5.25, 95% CI: 4.20, 6.57). Conclusions: NMUPO is a strong risk factor for heroin initiation among veterans seen in primary care. Most reported new onset NMUPO prior to or concurrent with heroin initiation. Strategies are needed to identify and address NMUPO among veterans
EMBASE:72176427
ISSN: 0376-8716
CID: 1946392
Unit support protects against sexual harassment and assault among national guard soldiers
Walsh, Kate; Galea, Sandro; Cerda, Magdalena; Richards, Catherine; Liberzon, Israel; Tamburrino, Marijo B; Calabrese, Joseph; Koenen, Karestan C
OBJECTIVE:Despite concerns about increased sexual harassment and assault after the 2013 legislation repealing the ban on women in combat, little research has examined military factors that could prevent sexual harassment and assault during deployment. This study examined whether unit support, which reflects the quality of service members' relationships within their unit, protects against sexual harassment and assault during deployment. METHODS:Participants were 1,674 Ohio Army National Guard service members who reported at least one deployment during a telephone survey conducted in 2008 and 2009. Participants completed measures of sexual harassment/assault, unit support, and psychosocial support. Logistic regression was used to model odds of sexual harassment/assault. RESULTS:Approximately 13.2% of men (n = 198) and 43.5% of women (n = 74) reported sexual harassment, and 1.1% of men (n = 17) and 18.8% of women (n = 32) reported sexual assault during their most recent deployment. Greater unit support was associated with decreased odds of sexual harassment and assault. CONCLUSIONS:A substantial proportion of men and women reported sexual harassment/assault. Greater unit support was associated with diminished odds of sexual harassment/assault during deployment. Programming designed to improve unit cohesion has the potential to reduce sexual harassment and assault.
PMCID:4254542
PMID: 25442705
ISSN: 1878-4321
CID: 3096582