Faculty Bibliography

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE:In a period of dynamic change in health care technology, delivery, and behaviors, tracking trends in health and health care can provide a perspective on what is being achieved. OBJECTIVE:To comprehensively describe national trends in mortality, hospitalizations, and expenditures in the Medicare fee-for-service population between 1999 and 2013. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/METHODS:Serial cross-sectional analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older between 1999 and 2013 using Medicare denominator and inpatient files. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/METHODS:For all Medicare beneficiaries, trends in all-cause mortality; for fee-for-service beneficiaries, trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalization-associated outcomes and expenditures. Geographic variation, stratified by key demographic groups, and changes in the intensity of care for fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 1, 3, and 6 months of life were also assessed. RESULTS:The sample consisted of 68,374,904 unique Medicare beneficiaries (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage). All-cause mortality for all Medicare beneficiaries declined from 5.30% in 1999 to 4.45% in 2013 (difference, 0.85 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.83-0.87). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries (n = 60,056,069), the total number of hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years decreased from 35,274 to 26,930 (difference, 8344; 95% CI, 8315-8374). Mean inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditures per Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary declined from $3290 to $2801 (difference, $489; 95% CI, $487-$490). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 6 months of life, the number of hospitalizations decreased from 131.1 to 102.9 per 100 deaths (difference, 28.2; 95% CI, 27.9-28.4). The percentage of beneficiaries with 1 or more hospitalizations decreased from 70.5 to 56.8 per 100 deaths (difference, 13.7; 95% CI, 13.5-13.8), while the inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditure per death increased from $15,312 in 1999 to $17,423 in 2009 and then decreased to $13,388 in 2013. Findings were consistent across geographic and demographic groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/CONCLUSIONS:Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, all-cause mortality rates, hospitalization rates, and expenditures per beneficiary decreased from 1999 to 2013. In the last 6 months of life, total hospitalizations and inpatient expenditures decreased in recent years.

BACKGROUND:Young women (<65 years) experience a 2- to 3-fold greater mortality risk than younger men after an acute myocardial infarction. However, it is unknown whether they are at higher risk for 30-day readmission, and if this association varies by age. We examined sex differences in the rate, timing, and principal diagnoses of 30-day readmissions, including the independent effect of sex following adjustment for confounders. METHODS AND RESULTS/RESULTS:We included patients aged 18 to 64 years with a principal diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. Data were used from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-State Inpatient Database for California (07-09). Readmission diagnoses were categorized by using an aggregated version of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' Condition Categories, and readmission timing was determined from the day after discharge. Of 42,518 younger patients with acute myocardial infarction (26.4% female), 4775 (11.2%) had at least 1 readmission. The 30-day all-cause readmission rate was higher for women (15.5% versus 9.7%, P<0.0001). For both sexes, readmission risk was highest on days 2 to 4 after discharge and declined thereafter, and women were more likely to present with noncardiac diagnoses (44.4% versus 40.6%, P=0.01). Female sex was associated with a higher rate of 30-day readmission, which persisted after adjustment (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.30). There was no significant interaction between age and sex on readmission. CONCLUSIONS:In comparison with men, younger women have a higher risk for readmission, even after the adjustment for confounders. The timing of 30-day readmission was similar in women and men, and both sexes were susceptible to a wide range of causes for readmission.

BACKGROUND:Early clopidogrel administration to patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been demonstrated to improve outcomes in a large Chinese trial. However, patterns of use of clopidogrel for patients with AMI in China are unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS/RESULTS:From a nationally representative sample of AMI patients from 2006 and 2011, we identified 11 944 eligible patients for clopidogrel therapy and measured early clopidogrel use, defined as initiation within 24 hours of hospital admission. Among the patients eligible for clopidogrel, the weighted rate of early clopidogrel therapy increased from 45.7% in 2006 to 79.8% in 2011 (P<0.001). In 2006 and 2011, there was significant variation in early clopidogrel use by region, ranging from 1.5% to 58.0% in 2006 (P<0.001) and 48.7% to 87.7% in 2011 (P<0.001). While early use of clopidogrel was uniformly high in urban hospitals in 2011 (median 89.3%; interquartile range: 80.1% to 94.5%), there was marked heterogeneity among rural hospitals (median 50.0%; interquartile range: 11.5% to 84.4%). Patients without reperfusion therapy and those admitted to rural hospitals were less likely to be treated with clopidogrel. CONCLUSIONS:Although the use of early clopidogrel therapy in patients with AMI has increased substantially in China, there is notable wide variation across hospitals, with much less adoption in rural hospitals. Quality improvement initiatives are needed to increase consistency of early clopidogrel use for patients with AMI. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION/BACKGROUND:URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT01624883.

BACKGROUND:Medicare hospital core process measures have improved over time, but little is known about how the distribution of performance across hospitals has changed, particularly among the lowest performing hospitals. METHODS:We studied all US hospitals reporting performance measure data on process measures for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia (PN) to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services from 2006 to 2011. We assessed changes in performance across hospital ranks, variability in the distribution of performance rates, and linear trends in the 10th percentile (lowest) of performance over time for both individual measures and a created composite measure for each condition. RESULTS:More than 4000 hospitals submitted measure data each year. There were marked improvements in hospital performance measures (median performance for composite measures: AMI: 96%-99%, HF: 85%-98%, PN: 83%-97%). A greater number of hospitals reached the 100% performance level over time for all individual and composite measures. For the composite measures, the 10th percentile significantly improved (AMI: 90%-98%, P<0.0001 for trend; HF: 70%-92%, P=0.0002; PN: 71%-92%, P=0.0003); the variation (90th percentile rate minus 10th percentile rate) decreased from 9% in 2006 to 2% in 2011 for AMI, 25%-8% for HF, and 20%-7% for PN. CONCLUSIONS:From 2006 to 2011, not only did the median performance improve but the distribution of performance narrowed. Focus needs to shift away from processes measures to new measures of quality.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates after aortic valve replacement have declined, but little is known about the risk of hospitalization among survivors and how that has changed with time. METHODS: Among Medicare patients who underwent aortic valve replacement from 1999 to 2010 and survived to 1 year, we assessed trends in 1-year hospitalization rates, mean cumulative length of stay (average number of hospitalization days per patient in the entire year), and adjusted annual Medicare payments per patient toward hospitalizations. We characterized hospitalizations by principal diagnosis and mean length of stay. RESULTS: Among 1-year survivors of aortic valve replacement, 43% of patients were hospitalized within that year, of whom 44.5% were hospitalized within 30 days (19.2% for overall cohort). Hospitalization rates were higher for older (50.3% for >85 years), female (45.1%), and black (48.9%) patients. One-year hospitalization rate decreased from 44.2% (95% confidence interval, 43.5 to 44.8) in 1999 to 40.9% (95% confidence interval, 40.3 to 41.4) in 2010. Mean cumulative length of stay decreased from 4.8 days to 4.0 days (p < 0.05 for trend); annual Medicare payments per patient were unchanged ($5,709 to $5,737; p = 0.32 for trend). The three most common principal diagnoses in hospitalizations were heart failure (12.7%), arrhythmia (7.9%), and postoperative complications (4.4%). Mean length of stay declined from 6.0 days to 5.3 days (p < 0.05 for trend). CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries who survived 1 year after aortic valve replacement, 3 in 5 remained free of hospitalization; however, certain subgroups had higher rates of hospitalization. After the 30-day period, the hospitalization rate was similar to that of the general Medicare population. Hospitalization rates and cumulative days spent in hospital decreased with time.

BACKGROUND:China is experiencing increasing burden of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the face of limited medical resources. Hospital length of stay (LOS) is an important indicator of resource utilization. METHODS:We used data from the Retrospective AMI Study within the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events, a nationally representative sample of patients hospitalized for AMI during 2001, 2006, and 2011. Hospital-level variation in risk-standardized LOS (RS-LOS) for AMI, accounting for differences in case mix and year, was examined with two-level generalized linear mixed models. A generalized estimating equation model was used to evaluate hospital characteristics associated with LOS. Absolute differences in RS-LOS and 95% confidence intervals were reported. RESULTS:The weighted median and mean LOS were 13 and 14.6 days, respectively, in 2001 (n = 1,901), 11 and 12.6 days in 2006 (n = 3,553), and 11 and 11.9 days in 2011 (n = 7,252). There was substantial hospital level variation in RS-LOS across the 160 hospitals, ranging from 9.2 to 18.1 days. Hospitals in the Central regions had on average 1.6 days (p = 0.02) shorter RS-LOS than those in the Eastern regions. All other hospital characteristics relating to capacity for AMI treatment were not associated with LOS. CONCLUSIONS:Despite a marked decline over the past decade, the mean LOS for AMI in China in 2011 remained long compared with international standards. Inter-hospital variation is substantial even after adjusting for case mix. Further improvement of AMI care in Chinese hospitals is critical to further shorten LOS and reduce unnecessary hospital variation.

BACKGROUND: Older patients who undergo mitral valve surgery (MVS) have high 1-year survival rates, but little is known about the experience of survivors. Our objective was to determine trends in 1-year hospital readmission rates and length of stay (LOS) in these individuals. METHODS: We included 100% of Medicare Fee-for-Service patients >/=65 years of age who underwent MVS between 1999-2010 and survived to 1 year (N = 146,877). We used proportional hazards regression to analyze the post-MVS 1-year readmission rate in each year, mean hospital LOS (after index admission), and readmission rates by subgroups (age, sex, race). RESULTS: The 1-year survival rate among patients undergoing MVS was 81.3%. Among survivors, 49.1% experienced a hospital readmission within 1 year. The post-MVS 1-year readmission rate declined from 1999-2010 (49.5% to 46.9%, P<0.01), and mean hospital LOS decreased from 6.2 to 5.3 (P<0.01). Readmission rates were highest in oldest patients, but declined in all age subgroups (65-74: 47.4% to 44.4%; 75-84: 51.4% to 49.2%, >/=85: 56.4% to 50.0%, all P<0.01). There were declines in women and men (women: 51.7% to 50.8%, P<0.01; men: 46.9% to 43.0%, P<0.01), and in whites and patients of other race, but not in blacks (whites: 49.0% to 46.2%, P<0.01; other: 55.0% to 48.9%, P<0.01; blacks: 58.1% to 59.0%, P = 0.18). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults surviving MVS to 1 year, slightly fewer than half experience a hospital readmission. There has been a modest decline in both the readmission rate and LOS over time, with worse outcomes in women and blacks.