Faculty Bibliography

In studies with time-to-event outcomes, multiple, inter-correlated, and time-varying covariates are commonly observed. It is of great interest to model their joint effects by allowing a flexible functional form and to delineate their relative contributions to survival risk. A class of semiparametric transformation (ST) models offers flexible specifications of the intensity function and can be a general framework to accommodate nonlinear covariate effects. In this paper, we propose a partial-linear single-index (PLSI) transformation model that reduces the dimensionality of multiple covariates into a single index and provides interpretable estimates of the covariate effects. We develop an iterative algorithm using the regression spline technique to model the nonparametric single-index function for possibly nonlinear joint effects, followed by nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation. We also propose a nonparametric testing procedure to formally examine the linearity of covariate effects. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to compare the PLSI transformation model with the standard ST model and apply it to NYU Langone Health de-identified electronic health record data on COVID-19 hospitalized patients' mortality and a Veteran's Administration lung cancer trial.

The stepped wedge design is often used to evaluate interventions as they are rolled out across schools, health clinics, communities, or other clusters. Most models used in the design and analysis of stepped wedge trials assume that the intervention effect is immediate and constant over time following implementation of the intervention (the "exposure time"). This is known as the IT (immediate treatment effect) assumption. However, recent research has shown that using methods based on the IT assumption when the treatment effect varies over exposure time can give extremely misleading results. In this manuscript, we discuss the need to carefully specify an appropriate measure of the treatment effect when the IT assumption is violated and we show how a stepped wedge trial can be powered when it is anticipated that the treatment effect will vary as a function of the exposure time. Specifically, we describe how to power a trial when the exposure time indicator (ETI) model of Kenny et al. (Statistics in Medicine, 41, 4311-4339, 2022) is used and the estimand of interest is a weighted average of the time-varying treatment effects. We apply these methods to the ADDRESS-BP trial, a type 3 hybrid implementation study designed to address racial disparities in health care by evaluating a practice-based implementation strategy to reduce hypertension in African American communities.

BACKGROUND:There is a need to understand the relationship between COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels and clinical outcomes to optimize CCP use. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between recipient baseline clinical status, clinical outcomes, and CCP antibody levels. METHODS:The study analyzed data from the COMPILE study, a meta-analysis of pooled individual patient data from 8 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) assessing the efficacy of CCP vs. control, in adults hospitalized for COVID-19 who were not receiving mechanical ventilation at randomization. SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels, referred to as 'dose' of CCP treatment, were retrospectively measured in donor sera or the administered CCP, semi-quantitatively using the VITROS Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG chemiluminescent immunoassay (Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics) with a signal-to-cutoff ratio (S/Co). The association between CCP dose and outcomes was investigated, treating dose as either continuous or categorized (higher vs. lower vs. control), stratified by recipient oxygen supplementation status at presentation. RESULTS:A total of 1714 participants were included in the study, 1138 control- and 576 CCP-treated patients for whom donor CCP anti-SARS-CoV2 antibody levels were available from the COMPILE study. For participants not receiving oxygen supplementation at baseline, higher-dose CCP (/control) was associated with a reduced risk of ventilation or death at day 14 (OR = 0.19, 95% CrI: [0.02, 1.70], posterior probability Pr(OR < 1) = 0.93) and day 28 mortality (OR = 0.27 [0.02, 2.53], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.87), compared to lower-dose CCP (/control) (ventilation or death at day 14 OR = 0.79 [0.07, 6.87], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.58; and day 28 mortality OR = 1.11 [0.10, 10.49], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.46), exhibiting a consistently positive CCP dose effect on clinical outcomes. For participants receiving oxygen at baseline, the dose-outcome relationship was less clear, although a potential benefit for day 28 mortality was observed with higher-dose CCP (/control) (OR = 0.66 [0.36, 1.13], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.93) compared to lower-dose CCP (/control) (OR = 1.14 [0.73, 1.78], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.28). CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Higher-dose CCP is associated with its effectiveness in patients not initially receiving oxygen supplementation, however, further research is needed to understand the interplay between CCP anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels and clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients initially receiving oxygen supplementation.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND:Diverse neurological conditions are reported associated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus; neurological symptoms are the most common conditions to persist after the resolution of acute infection, affecting 20% of patients 6 months after acute illness. The COVID-19 Neuro Databank (NeuroCOVID) was created to overcome the limitations of siloed small local cohorts to collect detailed, curated, and harmonized de-identified data from a large diverse cohort of adults with new or worsened neurological conditions associated with COVID-19 illness, as a scientific resource. METHODS:A Steering Committee including US and international experts meets quarterly to provide guidance. Initial study sites were recruited to include a wide US geographic distribution; academic and non-academic sites; urban and non-urban locations; and patients of different ages, disease severity, and comorbidities seen by a variety of clinical specialists. The NeuroCOVID REDCap database was developed, incorporating input from professional guidelines, existing common data elements, and subject matter experts. A cohort of eligible adults is identified at each site; inclusion criteria are: a new or worsened neurological condition associated with a COVID-19 infection confirmed by testing. De-identified data are abstracted from patients' medical records, using standardized common data elements and five case report forms. The database was carefully enhanced in response to feedback from site investigators and evolving scientific interest in post-acute conditions and their timing. Additional US and international sites were added, focusing on diversity and populations not already described in published literature. By early 2024, NeuroCOVID included over 2,700 patient records, including data from 16 US and 5 international sites. Data are being shared with the scientific community in compliance with NIH requirements. The program has been invited to share case report forms with the National Library of Medicine as an ongoing resource for the scientific community. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:The NeuroCOVID database is a unique and valuable source of comprehensive de-identified data on a wide variety of neurological conditions associated with COVID-19 illness, including a diverse patient population. Initiated early in the pandemic, data collection has been responsive to evolving scientific interests. NeuroCOVID will continue to contribute to scientific efforts to characterize and treat this challenging illness and its consequences.

IMPORTANCE/UNASSIGNED:Hypertension management has traditionally been based on office visits. Integrating remote monitoring into routine clinical practices and leveraging social support might improve blood pressure (BP) control. OBJECTIVE/UNASSIGNED:To evaluate the effectiveness of a bidirectional text monitoring program focused on BP control and medication adherence with and without social support in adults with hypertension. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS/UNASSIGNED:This randomized clinical trial included adults aged 18 to 75 treated at an academic family medicine practice in Philadelphia in 2018 and 2019. Patients had been seen at least twice in the prior 24 months and had at least 2 elevated BP measurements (>150/90 mm Hg or >140/90 mm Hg for patients aged 18-59 years or with diabetes or chronic kidney disease) during visits. All participants had a cell phone with text messaging, offered at least 1 support partner, and were taking maintenance medications to treat hypertension. Patients were randomized 2:2:1 to remote monitoring of BP and medication adherence (RM), remote monitoring of BP and medication adherence with feedback provided to a social support partner (SS), or usual care (UC). Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis between October 14, 2019, and May 30, 2020, and were revisited from May 23 through June 2, 2023. INTERVENTIONS/UNASSIGNED:The RM and SS groups received an automatic home BP monitor, 3 weekly texts requesting BP measurements, 1 weekly text inquiring about medication adherence, and a weekly text with feedback. In the SS arm, support partners received a weekly progress report. The UC group received UC through their primary care practice. Clinicians caring for the patients in the intervention groups received nudges via electronic health records to adjust medications when 3 of 10 reported BP measurements were elevated. Patients were followed up for 4 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES/UNASSIGNED:The primary outcome was systolic BP at 4 months measured during the final follow-up visit. Secondary outcomes included achievement of normotension and diastolic BP. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:In all, 246 patients (mean [SD] age, 50.9 [11.4] years; 175 females [71.1%]; 223 Black individuals [90.7%] and 13 White individuals [5.3%]) were included in the intention-to-treat analysis: 100 patients in the RM arm, 97 in the SS arm, and 49 in the UC arm. Compared with the UC arm, there was no significant difference in systolic or diastolic BP at the 4-month follow-up visit in the RM arm (systolic BP adjusted mean difference, -5.25 [95% CI, -10.65 to 0.15] mm Hg; diastolic BP adjusted mean difference, -1.94 [95% CI, -5.14 to 1.27] mm Hg) or the SS arm (systolic BP adjusted mean difference, -0.91 [95% CI, -6.37 to 4.55] mm Hg; diastolic BP adjusted mean difference, -0.63 [95% CI, -3.77 to 2.51] mm Hg). Of the 206 patients with a final BP measurement at 4 months, BP was controlled in 49% (41 of 84) of patients in the RM arm, 31% (27 of 87) of patients in the SS arm, and 40% (14 of 35) of patients in the UC arm; these rates did not differ significantly between the intervention arms and the UC group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE/UNASSIGNED:In this randomized clinical trial, neither remote BP monitoring nor remote BP monitoring with social support improved BP control compared with UC in adults with hypertension. Additional efforts are needed to examine whether interventions directed at helping patients remember to take their BP medications can lead to improved BP control. TRIAL REGISTRATION/UNASSIGNED:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03416283.

BACKGROUND:Colorectal cancer screening uptake in the United States overall has increased, but racial/ethnic disparities persist and data on colonoscopy uptake by racial/ethnic subgroups are lacking. We sought to better characterize these trends and to identify predictors of colonoscopy uptake, particularly among Asian and Hispanic subgroups. STUDY/METHODS:We used data from the New York City Community Health Survey to generate estimates of up-to-date colonoscopy use in Asian and Hispanic subgroups across 6 time periods spanning 2003-2016. For each subgroup, we calculated the percent change in colonoscopy uptake over the study period and the difference in uptake compared to non-Hispanic Whites in 2015-2016. We also used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of colonoscopy uptake. RESULTS:All racial and ethnic subgroups with reliable estimates saw a net increase in colonoscopy uptake between 2003 and 2016. In 2015-2016, compared with non-Hispanic Whites, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and Central/South Americans had higher colonoscopy uptake, whereas Chinese, Asian Indians, and Mexicans had lower uptake. On multivariable analysis, age, marital status, insurance status, primary care provider, receipt of flu vaccine, frequency of exercise, and smoking status were the most consistent predictors of colonoscopy uptake (≥4 time periods). CONCLUSIONS:We found significant variation in colonoscopy uptake among Asian and Hispanic subgroups. We also identified numerous demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related predictors of colonoscopy uptake. These findings highlight the importance of examining health disparities through the lens of disaggregated racial/ethnic subgroups and have the potential to inform future public health interventions.

BACKGROUND:There are no effective medical therapies for patients with meningioma who progress beyond surgical and radiotherapeutic interventions. Somatostatin receptor Type 2 (SSTR2) represents a promising treatment target in meningiomas. In this multicenter, single-arm phase II clinical study (NCT03971461), the SSTR2-targeting radiopharmaceutical 177Lu-DOTATATE is evaluated for its feasibility, safety, and therapeutic efficacy in these patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS/METHODS:Adult patients with progressive intracranial meningiomas received 177Lu-DOTATATE at a dose of 7.4 GBq (200 mCi) every eight weeks for four cycles. 68Ga-DOTATATE PET-MRI was performed before and six months after begin of treatment. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) at 6 months (PFS-6). Secondary endpoints were safety and tolerability, overall survival (OS) at 12 months (OS-12), median PFS, and median OS. RESULTS:Fourteen patients (F=11, M=3) with progressive meningiomas (WHO 1=3, 2=10, 3=1) were enrolled. Median age was 63.1 (range 49.7-78) years. All patients previously underwent tumor resection and at least one course of radiation. Treatment with 177Lu-DOTATATE was well tolerated. Seven patients (50%) achieved PFS-6. Best radiographic response by modified Macdonald criteria was stable disease (SD) in all seven patients. A >25% reduction in 68Ga-DOTATATE (PET) was observed in five meningiomas and two patients. In one lesion, this corresponded to >50% reduction in bidirectional tumor measurements (MRI). CONCLUSIONS:Treatment with 177Lu-DOTATATE was well tolerated. The predefined PFS-6 threshold was met in this interim analysis, thereby allowing this multicenter clinical trial to continue enrollment. 68Ga-DOTATATE PET may be a useful imaging biomarker to assess therapeutic outcome in patients with meningioma.

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard of clinical research for comparing therapies in well-defined groups of participants.¹ Randomization avoids confounding due to unmeasured variables or to treatment selection and enables a causal interpretation of the estimated treatment effect. It has long been recognized, however, that standard explanatory clinical trials are slow, costly, and subject to participant selection. To preserve the strengths of randomized trials while mitigating their weaknesses, pragmatic randomized clinical trials emerged; these trials aim to facilitate decision-making rather than explicate a mechanism of action and enroll a diverse set of participants using existing structures and data sources.².