Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular safety of dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors (DPP-4i) in patients without cardiovascular or renal disease, a majority of newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes often excluded from clinical trials on this association, is poorly understood. Thus, we investigate the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) associated with DPP-4i in low-risk patients with diabetes. METHODS:Using a new-user retrospective cohort derived from IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters (2010-2015), we identified patients aged 35-65 with type 2 diabetes, without cardiovascular or renal disease, initiating DPP-4i, sulfonylureas, or metformin. Primary composite outcome of time to first MACE was defined as the first of any of the following: myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, coronary artery bypass graft, coronary angioplasty, heart failure, and stroke. Secondary outcomes were time to first heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke. We compared outcomes for DPP-4i versus sulfonylurea and DPP-4i versus metformin using propensity score weighted Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, baseline comorbidities, concomitant medications, and cumulative exposure. RESULTS:Of 445,701 individuals, 236,431 (53.0%) were male, median age was 51 (interquartile range: [44, 57]), 30,267 (6.79%) initiated DPP-4i, 52,138 (11.70%) initiated sulfonylureas, and 367,908 (82.55%) initiated metformin. After adjustment, DPP-4i was associated with lower risk of MACE than sulfonylurea (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-0.98), and similar risk to metformin (aHR = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.18). Risk for acute myocardial infarction (aHR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.51-0.96), stroke (aHR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.41-0.79), and heart failure (aHR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.41-0.79) with DPP-4i was lower compared to sulfonylureas. CONCLUSION:Our findings show that for this cohort of low-risk patients newly treated for type 2 diabetes, DPP-4i exhibited 13% lower risk for MACE compared to sulfonylureas and similar risk for MACE compared to metformin, suggesting DPP-4i is a low cardiovascular risk option for low-risk patients initiating antihyperglycemic treatment.

BACKGROUND:Choice of vascular access for older hemodialysis patients presents a special challenge since the rate of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) primary failure is high. The Lok's risk equation predicting AVF primary failure has achieved good prediction accuracy and holds great potential for clinical use, but it has not been validated in the United States older hemodialysis patients. METHODS:We assembled a validation data set of 14,892 patients aged 67 years and older who initiated hemodialysis with a central venous catheter between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012, and had a subsequent, incident AVF placement from the United States Renal Data System. We examined the external validity of Lok's model by applying it to this validation data set. The discriminatory accuracy and calibration were evaluated by the concordance index (C-statistics) and calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS:The observed frequency of AVF primary failure varied from 0.45 to 0.53 in hemodialysis patients in the validation data set. The predicted probabilities of AVF primary failure calculated by using the Lok's risk equation ranged from 0.08 to 0.61, and 77.8, 40.5, and 51.7% of patients were categorized as having high, intermediate, and low risk of AVF primary failure, respectively. The C-statistics of the Lok's risk equation in the validation data set was 0.53 (95% CI 0.52-0.54). The predicted probabilities of AVF primary failure corresponded poorly with the observed proportions in the calibration plot. CONCLUSIONS:When externally applied to a cohort of U.S. older hemodialysis patients, the Lok's risk equation exhibited poor discrimination and calibration accuracy. It is invalid to use it to predict AVF primary failure. A more complex model with strong predictors is expected to better serve clinical determination for AVF placement in this population.

Epidemiology should aim to improve population health; however, no consensus exists regarding the activities and skills that should be prioritized to achieve this goal. We performed a scoping review of articles addressing the translation of epidemiologic knowledge into improved population health outcomes. We identified 5 themes in the translational epidemiology literature: foundations of epidemiologic thinking, evidence-based public health or medicine, epidemiologic education, implementation science, and community-engaged research (including literature on community-based participatory research). We then identified 5 priority areas for advancing translational epidemiology: 1) scientific engagement with public health; 2) public health communication; 3) epidemiologic education; 4) epidemiology and implementation; and 5) community involvement. Using these priority areas as a starting point, we developed a conceptual framework of translational epidemiology that emphasizes interconnectedness and feedback among epidemiology, foundational science, and public health stakeholders. We also identified 2-5 representative principles in each priority area that could serve as the basis for advancing a vision of translational epidemiology. We believe an emphasis on translational epidemiology can help the broader field to increase the efficiency of translating epidemiologic knowledge into improved health outcomes and to achieve its goal of improving population health.

Importance:Among liver transplant candidates, obesity and frailty are associated with increased risk of death while they are on the wait-list. However, use of body mass index (BMI) may not detect candidates at a higher risk of death owing to the fact that ascites and muscle wasting are seen across transplant candidates of all BMI measurements. Objective:To evaluate whether the association between wait-list mortality and frailty varied by BMI of liver transplant candidates. Design, Setting, and Participants:A prospective cohort study was conducted at 9 liver transplant centers in the United States from March 1, 2012, to May 1, 2018, among 1108 adult liver transplant candidates without hepatocellular carcinoma. Exposures:At outpatient evaluation, the Liver Frailty Index score was calculated (grip strength, chair stands, and balance), with frailty defined as a Liver Frailty Index score of 4.5 or more. Candidates' BMI was categorized as nonobese (18.5-29.9), class 1 obesity (30.0-34.9), and class 2 or greater obesity (≥35.0). Main Outcomes and Measures:The risk of wait-list mortality was quantified using competing risks regression by candidate frailty, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, Model for End-stage Liver Disease Sodium score, cause of liver disease, and ascites, including an interaction with candidate BMI. Results:Of 1108 liver transplant candidates (474 women and 634 men; mean [SD] age, 55 [10] years), 290 (26.2%) were frail; 170 of 670 nonobese candidates (25.4%), 64 of 246 candidates with class 1 obesity (26.0%), and 56 of 192 candidates with class 2 or greater obesity (29.2%) were frail (P = .57). Frail nonobese candidates and frail candidates with class 1 obesity had a higher risk of wait-list mortality compared with their nonfrail counterparts (nonobese candidates: adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.02-2.33; P = .04; and candidates with class 1 obesity: adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.72; 95% CI, 0.99-2.99; P = .06; P = .75 for interaction). However, frail candidates with class 2 or greater obesity had a 3.19-fold higher adjusted risk of wait-list mortality compared with nonfrail candidates with class 2 or greater obesity (95% CI, 1.75-5.82; P < .001; P = .047 for interaction). Conclusions and Relevance:This study's finding suggest that among nonobese liver transplant candidates and candidates with class 1 obesity, frailty was associated with a 2-fold higher risk of wait-list mortality. However, the mortality risk associated with frailty differed for candidates with class 2 or greater obesity, with frail candidates having a more than 3-fold higher risk of wait-list mortality compared with nonfrail patients. Frailty assessments may help to identify vulnerable patients, particularly those with a BMI of 35.0 or more, in whom a clinician's visual evaluation may be less reliable to assess muscle mass and nutritional status.

Impacts of the prescription opioid epidemic have not yet been examined in the context of heart transplantation. We examined a novel database in which national U.S. transplant registry records were linked to a large pharmaceutical claims warehouse (2007-2016) to characterize prescription opioid use before and after heart transplant, and associations (adjusted hazard ratio, _{95% LCL} aHR_{95% UCL} ) with death and graft loss. Among 13 958 eligible patients, 40% filled opioids in the year before transplant. Use was more common among recipients who were female, white, or unemployed, or who underwent transplant in more recent years. Of those with the highest level of pretransplant opioid use, 71% continued opioid use posttransplant. Pretransplant use had graded associations with 1-year posttransplant outcomes; compared with no use, the highest-level use (>1000 mg morphine equivalents) predicted 33% increased risk of death (aHR _1.10 1.33_1.61 ) in the year after transplant. Risk relationships with opioid use in the first year posttransplant were stronger, with highest level use predicting 70% higher mortality (aHR _1.46 1.70_1.98 ) over the subsequent 4 years (from >1 to 5 years posttransplant). While associations may, in part, reflect underlying conditions or behaviors, opioid use history is relevant in assessing and providing care to transplant candidates and recipients.

BACKGROUND:Recipients of nonkidney solid organ transplants (nkSOT) are living longer, and 11%-18% will develop end stage renal disease (ESRD). While our general inclination is to treat nkSOT recipients who develop ESRD with a kidney transplant (KT), an increasing number are developing ESRD at an older age where KT may not be the most appropriate treatment. It is possible that the risk of older age and prior nkSOT might synergize to make KT too risky, but this has never been explored. METHODS:To examine death-censored graft loss and mortality for KT recipients with and without prior nkSOT, we used Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data to identify 42 089 older (age ≥65) KT recipients between 1995 and 2016. Additionally, to better understand treatment options for these patients and survival benefit of KT, we identified 5023 older (age ≥65) with prior nkSOT recipients listed for subsequent KT, of whom 863 received transplants. RESULTS:Compared with 41 159 older KT recipients without prior nkSOT, death-censored graft loss was similar (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.13, 95% CI: 0.93-1.37, P = 0.2), but mortality (aHR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.28-1.54, P < 0.001) was greater for older KT recipients with prior nkSOT. Nonetheless, in a survival benefit model (survival with versus without the transplant), among older prior nkSOT recipients, KT decreased the risk of mortality by more than half (aHR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.42-0.54, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Older prior nkSOT recipients who subsequently develop ESRD derive survival benefit from KT, but graft longevity is limited by overall survival in this population. These findings can help guide patient counseling for this challenging population.

Pediatric kidney transplant candidates often have multiple potential living donors (LDs); no evidence-based tool exists to compare potential LDs, or to decide between marginal LDs and deceased donor (DD) kidney transplantation (KT). We developed a pediatric living kidney donor profile index (P-LKDPI) on the same scale as the DD KDPI by using Cox regression to model the risk of all-cause graft loss as a function of living donor characteristics and DD KDPI. HLA-B mismatch (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per mismatch = _1.04 1.27_1.55 ), HLA-DR mismatch (aHR per mismatch = _1.02 1.23_1.49 ), ABO incompatibility (aHR = _1.20 3.26_8.81 ), donor systolic blood pressure (aHR per 10 mm Hg = _1.01 1.07_1.18 ), and donor estimated GFR (eGFR; aHR per 10 mL/min/1.73 m² = _0.88 0.94_0.99 ) were associated with graft loss after LDKT. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) P-LKDPI was -25 (-56 to 12). 68% of donors had P-LKDPI <0 (less risk than any DD kidney) and 25% of donors had P-LKDPI >14 (more risk than median DD kidney among pediatric KT recipients during the study period). Strata of LDKT recipients of kidneys with higher P-LKDPI had a higher cumulative incidence of graft loss (39% at 10 years for P-LDKPI ≥20, 28% for 20> P-LKDPI ≥-20, 23% for -20 > P-LKDPI ≥-60, 19% for P-LKDPI <-60 [log rank P < .001]). The P-LKDPI can aid in organ selection for pediatric KT recipients by allowing comparison of potential LD and DD kidneys.