Faculty Bibliography

The impact of donor quality on post-kidney transplant (KT) survival may vary by candidate condition. Characterizing this variation would increase access to KT without sacrificing outcomes. We developed a tool to estimate post-KT survival for combinations of donor quality and candidate condition. We studied deceased donor KT recipients (n = 120 818) and waitlisted candidates (n = 376 272) between 2005 and 2016 by using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Donor quality and candidate condition were measured by using the Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) and the Estimated Post Transplant Survival (EPTS) score. We estimated 5-year post-KT survival based on combinations of KDPI and EPTS score using random forest algorithms and waitlist survival by EPTS score using Weibull regressions. Survival benefit was defined as absolute reduction in mortality risk with KT. For candidates with an EPTS score of 80, 5-year waitlist survival was 47.6%, and 5-year post-KT survival was 78.9% after receiving kidneys with a KDPI of 20 and was 70.7% after receiving kidneys with a KDPI of 80. The impact of KDPI on survival benefit varied greatly by EPTS score. For candidates with low EPTS scores (eg, <40), the KDPI had limited impact on survival benefit. For candidates with middle or high EPTS scores (eg, >40), survival benefit decreased with higher KDPI but was still substantial even with a KDPI of 100 (>16 percentage points). Our prediction tool (www.transplantmodels.com/kdpi-epts) can support individualized decision-making on kidney offers in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND:Many kidneys are discarded every year, with 3631 kidneys discarded in 2016 alone. Identifying kidneys at high risk of discard could facilitate "rescue" allocation to centers more likely to transplant them. The Probability of Delay or Discard (PODD) model was developed to identify marginal kidneys at risk of discard or delayed allocation beyond 36 hours of cold ischemia time. However, PODD has not been prospectively validated, and patterns of discard may have changed after policy changes such as the introduction of Kidney Donor Profile Index and implementation of the Kidney Allocation System (KAS). METHODS:We prospectively validated the PODD model using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data in the KAS era (January 1, 2015, to March 1, 2018). C statistic was calculated to assess accuracy in predicting kidney discard. We assessed clustering in centers' utilization of kidneys with PODD >0.6 ("high-PODD") using Gini coefficients. Using match run data from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2016, we examined distribution of these high-PODD kidneys offered to centers that never accepted a high-PODD kidney. RESULTS:The PODD model predicted discard accurately under KAS (C-statistic, 0.87). Compared with utilization of low-PODD kidneys (Gini coefficient = 0.41), utilization of high-PODD kidneys was clustered more tightly among a few centers (Gini coefficient, 0.84 with >60% of centers never transplanted a high-PODD kidneys). In total, 11684 offers (35.0% of all high-PODD offers) were made to centers that never accepted a high-PODD kidney. CONCLUSIONS:Prioritizing allocation of high-PODD kidneys to centers that are more likely to transplant them might help reduce kidney discard.

BACKGROUND:Allocation for pediatric deceased-donor kidney transplantation (pDDKT) in the United States now de-emphasizes HLA matching to improve equality in access to transplantation, but other national systems still consider HLA matching due to concerns about graft survival. We hypothesized that the impact of HLA mismatching has decreased over time due to advances including improved immunosuppression. METHODS:Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient data, we analyzed whether the association between the number of HLA mismatches and outcomes of first-time pDDKTs changed between 2 eras: 1995 to 2004 (N = 2854) and 2005 to 2014 (N = 4643). RESULTS:Between eras, the median number of mismatches increased from 4 to 5 (P < 0.001). Overall graft failure risk was higher among HLA-mismatched versus HLA-matched transplants (adjusted hazard ratio 1.211.431.69 for 3-6 versus 0-2 mismatches; P < 0.001), and this association was similar pre-2005 and post-2005 (Pinteraction = 0.5). Median panel-reactive antibody change at relisting increased from 79 to 85 (P = 0.01), but the association between number of HLA mismatches and panel-reactive antibody change was similar between eras (Pinteraction = 0.6). CONCLUSIONS:Our finding that increased HLA mismatching continues to impact graft survival, with 43% higher risk of graft failure, highlights the tradeoff between transplant access equity and outcomes and calls into question the deemphasis on HLA matching in pDDKT allocation in the United States.

The increased use of split-liver transplantation (SLT) represents a strategy to increase the supply of organs. Although outcomes after SLT and whole liver transplantation (WLT) are similar on average among pediatric recipients, we hypothesized that the relationship between graft type and outcomes may vary depending on patient, donor, and surgical characteristics. We evaluated graft survival among pediatric (<18 years) deceased donor, liver-only transplant recipients from March 2002 until December 2015 using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Graft survival was assessed in a Cox proportional hazards model, with and without effect modification between graft type and donor, recipient, and surgical characteristics, to identify conditions where the risk of graft loss for SLT and WLT were similar. In a traditional multivariable model, characteristics associated with graft loss included donor age >50 years, recipient weight <10 kg, acute hepatic necrosis, autoimmune diseases, tumor, public insurance, and cold ischemia time (CIT) >8 hours. In an analysis that explored whether these characteristics modified the relationship between graft type and graft loss, many characteristics associated with loss actually had similar outcomes regardless of graft type, including weight <10 kg, acute hepatic necrosis, autoimmune diseases, and tumor. In contrast, several subgroups had worse outcomes when SLT was used, including recipient weight 10-35 kg, non-biliary atresia cholestasis, and metabolic disease. Allocation score, share type, or CIT did not modify risk of graft type and graft failure. Although one might anticipate that individuals with higher rates of graft loss would be worse candidates for SLT, data suggest that these patients actually have similar rates of graft loss. These findings can guide surgical decision making and may support policy changes that promote the increased use of SLT for specific pediatric recipients.