Faculty Bibliography

Trauma, violence, and their consequences for population health are shaped by complex, intersecting forces across the life span. We aimed to illustrate the strengths of agent-based modeling (ABM), a computational approach in which population-level patterns emerge from the behaviors and interactions of simulated individuals, for advancing trauma research; Method: We provide an overview of agent-based modeling for trauma research, including a discussion of the model development process, ABM as a complement to other causal inference and complex systems approaches in trauma research, and past ABM applications in the trauma literature; Results: We use existing ABM applications to illustrate the strengths of ABM for trauma research, including incorporating interactions between individuals, simulating processes across multiple scales, examining life-course effects, testing alternate theories, comparing intervention strategies in a virtual laboratory, and guiding decision making. We also discuss the challenges of applying ABM to trauma research and offer specific suggestions for incorporating ABM into future studies of trauma and violence; Conclusion: Agent-based modeling is a useful complement to other methodological advances in trauma research. We recommend a more widespread adoption of ABM, particularly for research into patterns and consequences of individual traumatic experiences across the life course and understanding the effects of interventions that may be influenced by social norms and social network structures. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

OBJECTIVES/OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to examine trends in cannabis-positive urine drug screens (UDSs) among emergency department (ED) patients from 2008 to 2019 using data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health care system, and whether these trends differed by age group (18-34, 35-64, and 65-75 years), sex, and race, and ethnicity. METHOD/METHODS:VHA electronic health records from 2008 to 2019 were used to identify the percentage of unique VHA patients seen each year at an ED, received a UDS, and screened positive for cannabis. Trends in cannabis-positive UDS were examined by age, race and ethnicity, and sex within age groups. RESULTS:Of the VHA ED patients with a UDS, the annual prevalence positive for cannabis increased from 16.42% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2019. The largest increases in cannabis-positive UDS were observed in the younger age groups. Male and female ED patients tested positive for cannabis at similar levels. Although the prevalence of cannabis-positive UDS was consistently highest among non-Hispanic Black patients, cannabis-positive UDS increased in all race and ethnicity groups. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:The increasing prevalence of cannabis-positive UDS supports the validity of previously observed population-level increases in cannabis use and cannabis use disorder from survey and administrative records. Time trends via UDS results provide additional support that previously documented increases in self-reported cannabis use and disorder from surveys and claims data are not spuriously due to changes in patient willingness to report use as it becomes more legalized, or due to greater clinical attention over time.

BACKGROUND:Cannabis legalization for medical and recreational purposes has been suggested as an effective strategy to reduce opioid and benzodiazepine use and deaths. We examined the county-level association between medical and recreational cannabis laws and poisoning deaths involving opioids and benzodiazepines in the US from 2002 to 2020. METHODS:Our ecologic county-level, spatiotemporal study comprised 49 states. Exposures were state-level implementation of medical and recreational cannabis laws and state-level initiation of cannabis dispensary sales. Our main outcomes were poisoning deaths involving any opioid, any benzodiazepine, and opioids with benzodiazepines. Secondary analyses included overdoses involving natural and semi-synthetic opioids, synthetic opioids, and heroin. RESULTS:Implementation of medical cannabis laws was associated with increased deaths involving opioids (rate ratio [RR] = 1.14; 95% credible interval [CrI] = 1.11, 1.18), benzodiazepines (RR = 1.19; 95% CrI = 1.12, 1.26), and opioids+benzodiazepines (RR = 1.22; 95% CrI = 1.15, 1.30). Medical cannabis legalizations allowing dispensaries was associated with fewer deaths involving opioids (RR = 0.88; 95% CrI = 0.85, 0.91) but not benzodiazepine deaths; results for recreational cannabis implementation and opioid deaths were similar (RR = 0.81; 95% CrI = 0.75, 0.88). Recreational cannabis laws allowing dispensary sales was associated with consistent reductions in opioid- (RR = 0.83; 95% CrI = 0.76, 0.91), benzodiazepine- (RR = 0.79; 95% CrI = 0.68, 0.92), and opioid+benzodiazepine-related poisonings (RR = 0.83; 95% CrI = 0.70, 0.98). CONCLUSIONS:Implementation of medical cannabis laws was associated with higher rates of opioid- and benzodiazepine-related deaths, whereas laws permitting broader cannabis access, including implementation of recreational cannabis laws and medical and recreational dispensaries, were associated with lower rates. The estimated effects of the expanded availability of cannabis seem dependent on the type of law implemented and its provisions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Both local socio-economic conditions and prescription opioid supply are associated with drug overdose deaths, which exhibit substantial geographical heterogeneity across the United States. We measured whether the associations of prescription opioid supply with drug overdose deaths vary by local socio-economic conditions. DESIGN:Ecological county-level study, including 3109 US counties between 2006 and 2019 (n = 43 526 county-years) using annual mortality data. SETTING:United States. CASES:A total of 711 447 drug overdose deaths. MEASUREMENTS:We modeled overdose counts using Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models, estimating associations between four types of drug overdose deaths (deaths involving any drugs, any opioid, prescription opioids only and heroin), prescription opioid supply and five socio-economic indicators: unemployment, poverty rate, income inequality, Rey index (components include mean household income, % high school graduates, % blue-collar workers and unemployment rate), and American human development index (HDI; an indicator of community wellbeing). FINDINGS:Drug overdose deaths and all substance-specific overdose deaths were higher in counties with higher income inequality [adjusted odds ratios (aORs) = 1.09-1.13], Rey index (aORs = 1.15-1.21) and prescription opioid supply (aORs = 1.14-1.21), and lower in counties with higher HDI scores (aORs = 0.75-0.92). Poverty rate, income inequality and HDI scores were found to modify the effect of prescription opioid supply on heroin overdose deaths. The plot of the interactions showed that when disadvantage is high, increasing prescription opioid supply does not increase heroin overdose deaths. The less disadvantage there is, indicated by lower poverty rates, higher HDI scores and lower income inequality, the greater the effect of increasing prescription opioid supply relative to population size on heroin overdose deaths in US counties. CONCLUSIONS:In the United States, prescription opioid supply is associated with higher drug overdose deaths; associations are stronger in counties with less disadvantage and less income inequality, but only for heroin overdose deaths.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Low outcome prevalence, often observed with opioid-related outcomes, poses an underappreciated challenge to accurate predictive modeling. Outcome class imbalance, where non-events (i.e. negative class observations) outnumber events (i.e. positive class observations) by a moderate to extreme degree, can distort measures of predictive accuracy in misleading ways, and make the overall predictive accuracy and the discriminatory ability of a predictive model appear spuriously high. We conducted a simulation study to measure the impact of outcome class imbalance on predictive performance of a simple SuperLearner ensemble model and suggest strategies for reducing that impact. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS:Using a Monte Carlo design with 250 repetitions, we trained and evaluated these models on four simulated data sets with 100 000 observations each: one with perfect balance between events and non-events, and three where non-events outnumbered events by an approximate factor of 10:1, 100:1, and 1000:1, respectively. MEASUREMENTS:We evaluated the performance of these models using a comprehensive suite of measures, including measures that are more appropriate for imbalanced data. FINDINGS:Increasing imbalance tended to spuriously improve overall accuracy (using a high threshold to classify events vs non-events, overall accuracy improved from 0.45 with perfect balance to 0.99 with the most severe outcome class imbalance), but diminished predictive performance was evident using other metrics (corresponding positive predictive value decreased from 0.99 to 0.14). CONCLUSION:Increasing reliance on algorithmic risk scores in consequential decision-making processes raises critical fairness and ethical concerns. This paper provides broad guidance for analytic strategies that clinical investigators can use to remedy the impacts of outcome class imbalance on risk prediction tools.

PURPOSE/UNASSIGNED:We aimed to synthesize insights from systems science approaches applied to domestic and gender-based violence. METHODS/UNASSIGNED:We conducted a systematic review of systems science studies (systems thinking, group model-building, agent-based modeling [ABM], system dynamics [SD] modeling, social network analysis [SNA], and network analysis [NA]) applied to domestic or gender-based violence, including victimization, perpetration, prevention, and community responses. We used blinded review to identify papers meeting our inclusion criteria (i.e., peer-reviewed journal article or published book chapter that described a systems science approach to domestic or gender-based violence, broadly defined) and assessed the quality and transparency of each study. RESULTS/UNASSIGNED:Our search yielded 1,841 studies, and 74 studies met our inclusion criteria (45 SNA, 12 NA, 8 ABM, and 3 SD). Although research aims varied across study types, the included studies highlighted social network influences on risks for domestic violence, clustering of risk factors and violence experiences, and potential targets for intervention. We assessed the quality of the included studies as moderate, though only a minority adhered to best practices in model development and dissemination, including stakeholder engagement and sharing of model code. CONCLUSIONS/UNASSIGNED:Systems science approaches for the study of domestic and gender-based violence have shed light on the complex processes that characterize domestic violence and its broader context. Future research in this area should include greater dialogue between different types of systems science approaches, consideration of peer and family influences in the same models, and expanded use of best practices, including continued engagement of community stakeholders. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION/UNASSIGNED:The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10896-023-00578-8.

BACKGROUND:Common adolescent psychiatric symptoms cluster into two dominant domains: internalizing and externalizing. Both domains are linked to self-esteem, which serves as a protective factor against a wide range of internalizing and externalizing problems. This study examined trends in US adolescents' self-esteem and externalizing symptoms, and their correlation, by sex and patterns of time use. METHODS:= 338 896 adolescents, grades:8/10/12, years:1991-2020), we generated six patterns of time use using latent profile analysis with 17 behavior items (e.g. sports participation, parties, paid work). Groups were differentiated by high/low engagement in sports and either paid work or high/low peer socialization. Within each group, we mapped annual, sex-stratified means of (and correlation between) self-esteem and externalizing factors. We also examined past-decade rates of change for factor means using linear regression and mapped proportions with top-quartile levels of poor self-esteem, externalizing symptoms, or both. RESULTS:We found consistent increases in poor self-esteem, decreases in externalizing symptoms, and a positive correlation between the two across nearly all activity groups. We also identified a relatively constant proportion of those with high levels of both in every group. Increases in poor self-esteem were most pronounced for female adolescents with low levels of socializing, among whom externalizing symptoms also increased. CONCLUSIONS:Rising trends in poor self-esteem are consistent across time use groups, as is the existence of a group facing poor self-esteem and externalizing symptoms. Effective interventions for adolescents' poor self-esteem/co-occurring symptoms are needed broadly, but especially among female adolescents with low peer socialization.

The association between recent release from incarceration and dramatically increased risk of fatal overdose is well-established at the individual level. Fatal overdose and. arrest/release are spatially clustered, suggesting that this association may persist at the neighborhood level. We analyzed multicomponent data from Rhode Island, 2016-2020, and observed a modest association at the census tract level between rates of release per 1000 population and fatal overdose per 100,000 person-years, adjusting for spatial autocorrelation in both the exposure and outcome. Our results suggest that for each additional person released to a given census tract per 1000 population, there is a corresponding increase in the rate of fatal overdose by 2 per 100,000 person years. This association is more pronounced in suburban tracts, where each additional release awaiting trial is associated with an increase in the rate of fatal overdose of 4 per 100,000 person-years and 6 per 100,000 person-years for each additional release following sentence expiration. This association is not modified by the presence or absence of a licensed medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) treatment provider in the same or surrounding tracts. Our results suggest that neighborhood-level release rates are moderately informative as to tract-level rates of fatal overdose and underscore the importance of expanding pre-release MOUD access in correctional settings. Future research should explore risk and resource environments particularly in suburban and rural areas and their impacts on overdose risk among individuals returning to the community.

IMPORTANCE:Cannabis use disorder (CUD) is increasing among US adults. Few national studies have addressed the role of medical cannabis laws (MCLs) and recreational cannabis laws (RCLs) in these increases, particularly in patient populations with high rates of CUD risk factors. OBJECTIVE:To quantify the role of MCL and RCL enactment in the increases in diagnosed CUD prevalence among Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients from 2005 to 2019. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Staggered-adoption difference-in-difference analyses were used to estimate the role of MCL and RCL in the increases in prevalence of CUD diagnoses, fitting a linear binomial regression model with fixed effects for state, categorical year, time-varying cannabis law status, state-level sociodemographic covariates, and patient age group, sex, and race and ethnicity. Patients aged 18 to 75 years with 1 or more VHA primary care, emergency department, or mental health visit and no hospice/palliative care within a given calendar year were included. Time-varying yearly state control covariates were state/year rates from American Community Survey data: percentage male, Black, Hispanic, White, 18 years or older, unemployed, income below poverty threshold, and yearly median household income. Analysis took place between February to December 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:As preplanned, International Classification of Diseases, Clinical Modification, ninth and tenth revisions, CUD diagnoses from electronic health records were analyzed. RESULTS:The number of individuals analyzed ranged from 3 234 382 in 2005 to 4 579 994 in 2019. Patients were largely male (94.1% in 2005 and 89.0% in 2019) and White (75.0% in 2005 and 66.6% in 2019), with a mean (SD) age of 57.0 [14.4] years. From 2005 to 2019, adjusted CUD prevalences increased from 1.38% to 2.25% in states with no cannabis laws (no CLs), 1.38% to 2.54% in MCL-only enacting states, and 1.39% to 2.56% in RCL-enacting states. Difference-in-difference results indicated that MCL-only enactment was associated with a 0.05% (0.05-0.06) absolute increase in CUD prevalence, ie, that 4.7% of the total increase in CUD prevalence in MCL-only enacting states could be attributed to MCLs, while RCL enactment was associated with a 1.12% (95% CI, 0.10-0.13) absolute increase in CUD prevalence, ie, that 9.8% of the total increase in CUD prevalence in RCL-enacting states could be attributed to RCLs. The role of RCL in the increases in CUD prevalence was greatest in patients aged 65 to 75 years, with an absolute increase of 0.15% (95% CI, 0.13-0.17) in CUD prevalence associated with RCLs, ie, 18.6% of the total increase in CUD prevalence in that age group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:In this study of VHA patients, MCL and RCL enactment played a significant role in the overall increases in CUD prevalence, particularly in older patients. However, consistent with general population studies, effect sizes were relatively small, suggesting that cumulatively, laws affected cannabis attitudes diffusely across the country or that other factors played a larger role in the overall increases in adult CUD. Results underscore the need to screen for cannabis use and CUD and to treat CUD when it is present.

Policy Points People are dying at record numbers from overdose in the United States. Concerted action has led to a number of successes, including reduced inappropriate opioid prescribing and increased availability of opioid use disorder treatment and harm-reduction efforts, yet ongoing challenges include criminalization of drug use and regulatory and stigma barriers to expansion of treatment and harm-reduction services. Priorities for action include investing in evidence-based and compassionate policies and programs that address sources of opioid demand, decriminalizing drug use and drug paraphernalia, enacting policies to make medication for opioid use disorder more accessible, and promoting drug checking and safe drug supply.