Faculty Bibliography

BACKGROUND:With the rapid accumulation of microbiome-wide association studies, a great amount of microbiome data are available to study the microbiome's role in human disease and advance the microbiome's potential use for disease prediction. However, the unique features of microbiome data hinder its utility for disease prediction. METHODS:Motivated from the polygenic risk score framework, we propose a microbial risk score (MRS) framework to aggregate the complicated microbial profile into a summarized risk score that can be used to measure and predict disease susceptibility. Specifically, the MRS algorithm involves two steps: (1) identifying a sub-community consisting of the signature microbial taxa associated with disease and (2) integrating the identified microbial taxa into a continuous score. The first step is carried out using the existing sophisticated microbial association tests and pruning and thresholding method in the discovery samples. The second step constructs a community-based MRS by calculating alpha diversity on the identified sub-community in the validation samples. Moreover, we propose a multi-omics data integration method by jointly modeling the proposed MRS and other risk scores constructed from other omics data in disease prediction. RESULTS:Through three comprehensive real-data analyses using the NYU Langone Health COVID-19 cohort, the gut microbiome health index (GMHI) multi-study cohort, and a large type 1 diabetes cohort separately, we exhibit and evaluate the utility of the proposed MRS framework for disease prediction and multi-omics data integration. In addition, the disease-specific MRSs for colorectal adenoma, colorectal cancer, Crohn's disease, and rheumatoid arthritis based on the relative abundances of 5, 6, 12, and 6 microbial taxa, respectively, are created and validated using the GMHI multi-study cohort. Especially, Crohn's disease MRS achieves AUCs of 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and 0.86 (0.78-0.95) in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed MRS framework sheds light on the utility of the microbiome data for disease prediction and multi-omics integration and provides a great potential in understanding the microbiome's role in disease diagnosis and prognosis. Video Abstract.

BACKGROUND:The link between oral diseases and mortality remains under-explored. We aimed to evaluate the associations between tooth count, untreated caries and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS:Data on 24 029 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988-94/1999-2010, with mortality linkage to the National Death Index to 31 December 2015, were analysed. Baseline total number of permanent teeth and any untreated caries were assessed by trained dental professionals. RESULTS:During up to 27 years of follow-up, 5270 deaths occurred. Fewer permanent teeth were associated with higher all-cause mortality, including heart disease and cancer mortality (all P <0.05 for trend) but not cerebrovascular disease mortality. For every 10 teeth missing, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.13 (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.18) for all-cause, 1.16 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.29) for heart disease and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.29) for cancer mortality. Untreated caries was associated with increased all-cause (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.39) and heart disease mortality (HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.88) but not cerebrovascular disease/cancer mortality, after adjusting for tooth count, periodontitis and sociodemographic/lifestyle factors. Compared with those without untreated caries and with 25-28 teeth, individuals with untreated caries and 1-16 teeth had a 53% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.27, 1.85) and 96 % increased risk of heart disease mortality (HR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.28, 3.01). CONCLUSIONS:In nationally representative cohorts, fewer permanent teeth and untreated caries were associated with all-cause and heart disease mortality. Fewer teeth were also associated with higher cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND:Incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among individuals aged less than 50 years has been increasing. As screening guidelines lower the recommended age of screening initiation, concerns including the burden on screening capacity and costs have been recognized, suggesting that an individualized approach may be warranted. We developed risk prediction models for early-onset CRC that incorporate an environmental risk score (ERS), including 16 lifestyle and environmental factors, and a polygenic risk score (PRS), of 141 variants. METHODS:Relying on risk score weights for ERS and PRS derived from studies of CRC at all ages, we evaluated risks for early-onset CRC in 3,486 cases and 3,890 controls aged less than 50 years. Relative and absolute risks for early-onset CRC were assessed according to values of the ERS and PRS. The discriminatory performance of these scores was estimated using the covariate-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS:Increasing values of ERS and PRS were associated with increasing relative risks for early-onset CRC (odds ratio per standard deviation of ERS = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08, 1.20; odds ratio per standard deviation of PRS = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.51, 1.68), both contributing to case-control discrimination (area under the curve = 0.631, 95% CI = 0.615, 0.647). Based on absolute risks, we can expect 26 excess cases per 10,000 men and 21 per 10,000 women, among those scoring at the 90th percentile for both risk scores. CONCLUSIONS:Personal risk scores have the potential to identify individuals at differential relative and absolute risk for early-onset CRC. Improved discrimination may aid in targeted CRC screening of younger, high-risk individuals, potentially improving outcomes.

Since the 1990s, the incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (at <50 years of age) in the US has increased by more than 50%; similar increases have also been observed internationally. These increases are found particularly among individuals born during and after the 1960s, raising the possibility that the increased rates of early-onset colorectal cancer are attributable to changes in risk-factor patterns throughout successive generations. The reasons for these alarming epidemiologic patterns for early-onset colorectal cancer worldwide are only recently being investigated and major gaps in our knowledge remain. In the current issue of this journal, Arif and colleagues differentiated characteristics and outcomes of early-onset colorectal cancer in patients with the predisposing conditions of inflammatory bowel disease or hereditary genetic syndromes, compared with patients who have sporadic disease. Also, in this issue, Schumacher and colleagues investigated risk factors for early-onset colorectal adenocarcinoma in a nested case-control study among Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health plan members. The research presented on characteristics and outcomes points to the importance of sporadic disease in the rise of early-onset colorectal cancer, while the research presented on risk factors points to the importance of obesity as a potential explanatory factor for this rise.See related articles by Arif et al., p. 1785 and by Schumacher et al., p. 1792.

BACKGROUND:Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) shows lasting benefits in advanced melanoma; however, not all patients respond to this treatment and many develop potentially life-threatening immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Identifying individuals who will develop irAEs is critical in order to improve the quality of care. Here, we prospectively demonstrate that the gut microbiome predicts irAEs in melanoma patients undergoing ICB. METHODS:Pre-, during, and post-treatment stool samples were collected from 27 patients with advanced stage melanoma treated with IPI (anti-CTLA-4) and NIVO (anti-PD1) ICB inhibitors at NYU Langone Health. We completed 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, DNA deep shotgun metagenomic, and RNA-seq metatranscriptomic sequencing. The divisive amplicon denoising algorithm (DADA2) was used to process 16S data. Taxonomy for shotgun sequencing data was assigned using MetaPhlAn2, and gene pathways were assigned using HUMAnN 2.0. Compositionally aware differential expression analysis was performed using ANCOM. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to assess the prospective role of the gut microbiome (GMB) in irAES, with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, immune ICB treatment type, and sequencing batch. RESULTS:= 0.88, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:We identified two distinct fecal bacterial community clusters which are associated differentially with irAEs in ICB-treated advanced melanoma patients.

Background/UNASSIGNED:Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies, but current evidence on smoking in association with survival after CRC diagnosis is limited. Methods/UNASSIGNED:We pooled data from 12 345 patients with stage I-IV CRC from 11 epidemiologic studies in the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the associations of prediagnostic smoking behavior with overall, CRC-specific, and non-CRC-specific survival. Results/UNASSIGNED:Among 12 345 patients with CRC, 4379 (35.5%) died (2515 from CRC) over a median follow-up time of 7.5 years. Smoking was strongly associated with worse survival in stage I-III patients, whereas no association was observed among stage IV patients. Among stage I-III patients, clear dose-response relationships with all survival outcomes were seen for current smokers. For example, current smokers with 40 or more pack-years had statistically significantly worse overall, CRC-specific, and non-CRC-specific survival compared with never smokers (hazard ratio [HR] =1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.68 to 2.25; HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.78; and HR = 2.67, 95% CI = 2.19 to 3.26, respectively). Similar associations with all survival outcomes were observed for former smokers who had quit for less than 10 years, but only a weak association with non-CRC-specific survival was seen among former smokers who had quit for more than 10 years. Conclusions/UNASSIGNED:This large consortium of CRC patient studies provides compelling evidence that smoking is strongly associated with worse survival of stage I-III CRC patients in a clear dose-response manner. The detrimental effect of smoking was primarily related to noncolorectal cancer events, but current heavy smoking also showed an association with CRC-specific survival.

It was not known whether the polygenic risk scores (PRSs) that predict colorectal cancer could predict colorectal cancer for people with inherited pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair genes-people with Lynch syndrome. We tested a PRS comprising 107 established single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with colorectal cancer in European populations for 826 European-descent carriers of pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair genes (293 MLH1, 314 MSH2, 126 MSH6, 71 PMS2, and 22 EPCAM) from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, of whom 504 had colorectal cancer. There was no evidence of an association between the PRS and colorectal cancer risk, irrespective of which DNA mismatch repair gene was mutated, or sex (all 2-sided P > .05). The hazard ratio per standard deviation of the PRS for colorectal cancer was 0.97 (95% confidence interval = 0.88 to 1.06; 2-sided P = .51). Whereas PRSs are predictive of colorectal cancer in the general population, they do not predict Lynch syndrome colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND:Increasing evidence suggests that tobacco smoking, a well-known driver of carcinogenesis, influences the gut microbiome; however, these relationships remain understudied in diverse populations. Thus, we performed an analysis of smoking and the gut microbiome in a subset of 803 adults from the multi-ethnic NYU FAMiLI study. METHODS:We assessed fecal microbiota using 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and clustered samples into Amplicon Sequence Variants using QIIME2. We evaluated inferred microbial pathway abundance using PICRUSt. We compared population beta diversity, and relative taxonomic and functional pathway abundance, between never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers. RESULTS:We found that the overall composition of the fecal microbiome in former and current smokers differs significantly from that of never smokers. The taxa Prevotella and Veillonellaceae were enriched in current and former smokers, while the taxa Lachnospira and Tenericutes were depleted, relative to never smokers. These shifts were consistent across racial and ethnic subgroups. Relative to never smokers, the abundance of taxa enriched in current smokers were positively correlated with the imputed abundance of pathways involving smoking-associated toxin breakdown and response to reactive oxygen species (ROS). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings suggest common mechanisms of smoking associated microbial change across racial subgroups, regardless of initial microbiome composition. The correlation of these differentials with ROS exposure pathways may suggest a role for these taxa in the known association between smoking, ROS and carcinogenesis. IMPACT/CONCLUSIONS:Smoking shifts in the microbiome may be independent of initial composition, stimulating further studies on the microbiome in carcinogenesis and cancer prevention.

Background/UNASSIGNED:Incidence of early-onset (younger than 50 years of age) colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing in many countries. Thus, elucidating the role of traditional CRC risk factors in early-onset CRC is a high priority. We sought to determine whether risk factors associated with late-onset CRC were also linked to early-onset CRC and whether association patterns differed by anatomic subsite. Methods/UNASSIGNED:Using data pooled from 13 population-based studies, we studied 3767 CRC cases and 4049 controls aged younger than 50 years and 23 437 CRC cases and 35 311 controls aged 50 years and older. Using multivariable and multinomial logistic regression, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between risk factors and early-onset CRC and by anatomic subsite. Results/UNASSIGNED: = .04). Conclusion/UNASSIGNED:In this large study, we identified several nongenetic risk factors associated with early-onset CRC, providing a basis for targeted identification of those most at risk, which is imperative in mitigating the rising burden of this disease.