Faculty Bibliography

In this paper we propose a unified Bayesian joint modeling framework for studying association between a binary treatment outcome and a baseline matrix-valued predictor. Specifically, a joint modeling approach relating an outcome to a matrix-valued predictor through a probabilistic formulation of multilinear principal component analysis (MPCA) is developed. This framework establishes a theoretical relationship between the outcome and the matrix-valued predictor although the predictor is not explicitly expressed in the model. Simulation studies are provided showing that the proposed method is superior or competitive to other methods, such as a two-stage approach and a classical principal component regression (PCR) in terms of both prediction accuracy and estimation of association; its advantage is most notable when the sample size is small and the dimensionality in the imaging covariate is large. Finally, our proposed joint modeling approach is shown to be a very promising tool in an application exploring the association between baseline EEG data and a favorable response to treatment in a depression treatment study by achieving a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy in comparison to competing methods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Differences in motivation during adolescence relative to childhood and adulthood in autism was tested in a cross-sectional study. 156 Typically developing individuals and 79 individuals with autism ages 10-30 years of age completed a go/nogo task with social and non-social cues. To assess age effects, linear and quadratic models were used. Consistent with prior studies, typically developing adolescents and young adults demonstrated more false alarms for positive relative to neutral social cues. In autism, there were no changes in attention across age for social or non-social cues. Findings suggest reduced orienting to motivating cues during late adolescence and early adulthood in autism. The findings provide a unique perspective to explain the challenges for adolescents with autism transitioning to adulthood.

This tutorial introduces recent developments in precision medicine for estimating treatment decision rules. The objective of these developments is to advance personalised healthcare by identifying an optimal treatment option for each individual patient based on each patient's characteristics. The methods detailed in this tutorial define composite variables from the patient measures that can be viewed as 'biosignatures' for differential treatment response, which we have termed 'generated effect modifiers'. In contrast to most machine learning approaches to precision medicine, these biosignatures are derived from linear and non-linear regression models and thus have the advantage of easy visualisation and ready interpretation. The methods are illustrated using examples from randomised clinical trials.

SESSION TITLE: Wednesday Abstract Posters SESSION TYPE: Original Investigation Posters PRESENTED ON: 10/23/2019 09:45

Hutson and Vexler (2018) demonstrate an example of aliasing with the beta and normal distribution. This letter presents another illustration of aliasing using the beta and normal distributions via an infinite mixture model, inspired by the problem of modeling placebo response.

Treatment response heterogeneity poses serious challenges for selecting treatment for many diseases. To better understand this heterogeneity and to help in determining the best patient-specific treatments for a given disease, many clinical trials are collecting large amounts of patient-level data prior to administering treatment in the hope that some of these data can be used to identify moderators of treatment effect. These data can range from simple scalar values to complex functional data such as curves or images. Combining these various types of baseline data to discover "biosignatures" of treatment response is crucial for advancing precision medicine. Motivated by the problem of selecting optimal treatment for subjects with depression based on clinical and neuroimaging data, we present an approach that both (1) identifies covariates associated with differential treatment effect and (2) estimates a treatment decision rule based on these covariates. We focus on settings where there is a potentially large collection of candidate biomarkers consisting of both scalar and functional data. The validity of the proposed approach is justified via extensive simulation experiments and illustrated using data from a placebo-controlled clinical trial investigating antidepressant treatment response in subjects with depression.

Statistical learning-extracting regularities in the environment-may underlie complex social behavior. 124 children, 56 with autism and 68 typically developing, ages 2-8 years, completed a novel visual statistical learning task on an iPad. Averaged together, children with autism demonstrated less learning on the task compared to typically developing children. However, multivariate classification analyses characterized individual behavior patterns, and demonstrated a subset of children with autism had similar learning patterns to typically developing children and that subset of children had less severe autism symptoms. Therefore, statistically averaging data resulted in missing critical heterogeneity. Variability in statistical learning may help to understand differences in autism symptoms across individuals and could be used to tailor and inform treatment decisions.

Smartphones offer a flexible tool to collect data about mental health, but less is known about their effectiveness as a method to assess variability in children's problem behaviors. Caregivers of children with autism completed daily questions about irritability, anxiety and mood delivered via smartphones across 8-weeks. Smartphone questions were consistent with subscales on standard caregiver questionnaires. Data collection from 7 to 10 days at the beginning and 7 to 10 days at the end of the study were sufficient to capture similar amounts of variance as daily data across 8-weeks. Other significant findings included effects of caregiver socioeconomic status and placebo-like effects from participation even though the study included no specific treatment. Nevertheless, single questions via smartphones collected over relatively brief periods reliably represent subdomains in standardized behavioral questionnaires, thereby decreasing burden on caregivers.

Latent class models are widely used to identify unobserved subgroups (i.e., latent classes) based upon one or more manifest variables. The probability of belonging to each subgroup is typically modeled as a function of a set of measured covariates. In this paper, we extend existing latent class models to incorporate matrix covariates. This research is motivated by a randomized placebo-controlled depression clinical trial. One study goal is to identify a subgroup of subjects who experience symptoms improvement early on during antidepressant treatment, which is considered to be an indication of a placebo rather than a true pharmacological response. We want to relate the likelihood of belonging to this subgroup of early responders to baseline electroencephalography (EEG) measurement that takes the form of a matrix. The proposed method is built upon a low rank Candecomp/Parafac (CP) decomposition of the target coefficient matrix through low-dimensional latent variables, which effectively reduces the model dimensionality. We adopt a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to estimate the latent variables, which allows a flexible way to incorporate prior knowledge about covariate effect heterogeneity and offers a data-driven method of regularization. Simulation studies suggest that the proposed method is robust against potentially misspecified rank in the CP decomposition. With the motivating example we show how the proposed method can be applied to extract valuable information from baseline EEG measurements that explains the likelihood of belonging to the early responder subgroup, helping to identify placebo responders and suggesting new targets for the study of placebo response.