Searched for: in-biosketch:yes
person:alir06
Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Khalil, Ibrahim; Colombara, Danny V; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Hossein; Troeger, Christopher; Daoud, Farah; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Bcheraoui, Charbel El; Rao, Puja C; Afshin, Ashkan; Charara, Raghid; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd El; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abu-Elyazeed, Remon; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Akseer, Nadia; Alam, Khurshid; Alasfoor, Deena; Ali, Raghib; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Alomari, Mahmoud A; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad Salem; Alsharif, Ubai; Alsowaidi, Shirina; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Atique, Suleman; Awasthi, Ashish; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Barac, Aleksandra; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bensenor, Isabela M; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Abdulhak, Aref A Bin; Butt, Zahid A; Danawi, Hadi; Dubey, Manisha; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Faghmous, Imad D A; Farid, Talha; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph Robert Anderson; Gibney, Katherine B; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rahul; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Harb, Hilda L; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Hsairi, Mohamed; Husseini, Abdullatif; Jahanmehr, Nader; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jibat, Tariku; Jonas, Jost B; Kasaeian, Amir; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kissoon, Niranjan; Koyanagi, Ai; Lal, Aparna; Latif, Asma Abdul Abdul; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd El; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mehari, Alem; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Misganaw, Awoke; Mohamed, Layla Abdalla Ibrahim; Nachega, Jean B; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Peprah, Emmanuel Kwame; Platts-Mills, James A; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rana, Saleem M; Ranabhat, Chhabi L; Rao, Sowmya R; Refaat, Amany H; Riddle, Mark; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R; Sawhney, Monika; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Setegn, Tesfaye; Sliwa, Karen; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Sykes, Bryan L; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Ukwaja, Kingsley; Uthman, Olalekan A; Westerman, Ronny; Wubshet, Mamo; Yenesew, Muluken A; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Rabeeah, Abdullah A Al; Wang, Haidong; Naghavi, Mohsen; Vos, Theo; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Mokdad, Ali H
Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
PMCID:5154365
PMID: 27928080
ISSN: 1476-1645
CID: 3619412
Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Kassebaum, N J; Barber, R M; Dandona, L; Hay, S I; Larson, H J; Lim, S S; Lopez, A D; Mokdad, A H; Naghavi, M; Pinho, C; Steiner, C; Vos, T; Wang, H; Achoki, T; Anderson, G M; Arora, M; Biryukov, S; Blore, J D; Carter, A; Casey, D C; Coates, M M; Coggeshall, M; Dicker, D J; Dossou, E; Fleming, T; Fraser, M S; Friedman, J; Fullman, N; Graetz, N; Hancock, J; Huynh, C; Iannarone, M; Kemmer, L; Kulikoff, X R; Kutz, M J; Liu, P Y; Marquez, N; Misganaw, A; Mooney, M D; Moradi-Lakeh, M; Ng, M; Nguyen, G; Pain, A; Shackelford, K A; Silpakit, N; Sligar, A; Smith, J M; Sorensen, R J D; Wagner, J A; Wolock, T; Zhou, M; Murray, C J L; Ebel, B E; Futran, N D; Harun, K M; Bhutta, Z A; Nisar, M I; Akseer, N; Jeemon, P; Dandona, R; Goenka, S; Kumar, G A; Gething, P W; Bisanzio, D; Deribew, A; Cooper, C; Ali, R; Bennett, D A; Jha, V; Rahimi, K; Kinfu, Y; Murthy, G V S; Liu, S; Wang, L; Liang, X; Yu, S; Azzopardi, P; Gibney, K B; Meretoja, A; Szoeke, C E I; Alam, K; Colquhoun, S M; Weintraub, R G; Wijeratne, T; Lozano, R; Campos-Nonato, I R; Campuzano, J C; Gomez-Dantes, H; Lamadrid-Figueroa, H; Mejia-Rodriguez, F; Montanez, Hernandez J C; Montero, P; Mensah, G A; Salomon, J A; Thorne-Lyman, A L; Ajala, O N; Barnighausen, T; Ding, E L; Farvid, M S; Fitchett, J R A; Abajobir, A A; Knibbs, L D; Lalloo, R; Alam, N K M; Guo, Y; Abate, K H; Gebrehiwot, T T; Gebremedhin, A T; Abbas, K M; Abd-Allah, F; Abdallat, M A; Abdulle, A M; Abera, S F; Melaku, Y A; Tesfay, F H; Aregay, A F; Bayou, T A; Betsu, B D; Gebremedhin, M; Gebru, A A; Hailu, G B; Tekle, T; Yalew, A Z; Yebyo, H G; Aboyans, V; Abubakar, I; Aldridge, R W; Banerjee, A; AbuRmeileh, N M; Adebiyi, A O; Adelekan, A L; Ojelabi, F A; Adedeji, I A; Adou, A K; Afanvi, K A; Badawi, A; Agarwal, A; Ahmad, Kiadaliri A; Akinyemiju, T F; Schwebel, D C; Singh, J A; Al-Aly, Z; Kemp, A H; Leigh, J; Mekonnen, A B; Alasfoor, D; Aldhahri, S F; Terkawi, A S; Alhabib, S; Alkerwi, A; Alla, F; Al-Raddadi, R; Alsharif, U; Alvarez, Martin E; Alvis-Guzman, N; Amare, A T; Ciobanu, L G; Tessema, G A; Setegn, T; Amberbir, A; Amegah, A K; Kudom, A A; Ammar, W; Harb, H L; Amrock, S M; Andersen, H H; Antoine, R M; Antonio, C A T; Faraon, E J A; Arnlov, J; Larsson, A; Arsic, Arsenijevic V S; Barac, A; Artaman, A; Asayesh, H; Atique, S; Avokpaho, E F G A; Awasthi, A; Ayala, Quintanilla B P; Bacha, U; Bahit, M C; Balakrishnan, K; Barker-Collo, S L; Mohammed, S; Basu, S; Bayou, Y T; Bazargan-Hejazi, S; Beardsley, J; Bedi, N; Bekele, T; Bell, M L; Biroscak, B J; Huang, J J; Santos, I S; Bensenor, I M; Lotufo, P A; Berhane, A; Wolfe, C D; Bernabe, E; Beyene, A S; Biadgilign, S; Bikbov, B; Bin, Abdulhak A A; Bjertness, E; Htet, A S; Brainin, M; Brazinova, A; Majdan, M; Shen, J; Breitborde, N J K; Brugha, T S; Butt, Z A; Cardenas, R; Fereshtehnejad, S; Kivipelto, M; Weiderpass, E; Havmoeller, R; Sindi, S; Castaneda-Orjuela, C A; CastanedaOrjuela, C A; Castro, R E; Catala-Lopez, F; Cavalleri, F; Colistro, V; Chang, H; Chang, J; Chavan, L; Chibueze, C E; Chisumpa, V H; Mapoma, C C; Masiye, F; Choi, J J; Chowdhury, R; Christopher, D J; Cirillo, M; Cooper, L T; Dahiru, T; Damasceno, A; Danawi, H; Refaat, A H; das, Neves J; Santos, J V; De, Leo D; Dellavalle, R P; Deribe, K; Hailu, A D; Tefera, W; Giref, A Z; Jibat, T; Temam, Shifa G; Des, Jarlais D C; Dharmaratne, S D; Dubey, M; Rahman, M H U; Ram, U; Singh, A; Yadav, A K; Vollset, S E; Ellingsen, C L; Savic, M; Skirbekk, V; Elyazar, I; Ermakov, S P; Soshnikov, S; Eshrati, B; Farzadfar, F; Kasaeian, A; Pishgar, F; Esteghamati, A; Hafezi-Nejad, N; Sheikhbahaei, S; Khosravi, A; Malekzadeh, R; Roshandel, G; Sepanlou, S G; Rahimi-Movaghar, V; Farid, T A; Khan, A R; Farinha, C S E S; Faro, A; Fernandes, J C; Fischer, F; Foigt, N; Franca, E B; Franklin, R C; Furst, T; Majeed, A; Gambashidze, K; Kazanjan, K; Kereselidze, M; Khonelidze, I; Shakh-Nazarova, M; Sturua, L; Gamkrelidze, A; Gebre, T; Geleijnse, J M; Giroud, M; Gishu, M D; Tura, A K; Glaser, E; Gona, P; Goodridge, A; Gopalani, S V; Goto, A; Gugnani, H C; Gupta, R; Gupta, V; Norheim, O F; Hamadeh, R R; Hamidi, S; Handal, A J; Hankey, G J; Harikrishnan, S; Hoek, H W; Horino, M; Horita, N; Hosgood, H D; Hoy, D G; Hu, G; Huang, H; Huybrechts, I; Iburg, K M; Idrisov, B T; Iyer, V J; Jacobsen, K H; Jahanmehr, N; Jakovljevic, M B; Javanbakht, M; Jayatilleke, A U; Jee, S H; Lal, D K; Zodpey, S; Jiang, G; Jiang, Y; Jonas, J B; Kabir, Z; Kamal, R; Kesavachandran, C N; She, J; Kan, H; Karch, A; Karletsos, D; Kaul, A; Kawakami, N; Shibuya, K; Kayibanda, J F; Kazi, D S; Keiyoro, P N; Kengne, A P; Wiysonge, C S; Sliwa, K; Keren, A; Khader, Y S; Khan, E A; Khang, Y H; Won, S; Khubchandani, J; Kim, Y J; Kokubo, Y; Kosen, S; Koul, P A; Koyanagi, A; Krishnaswami, S; Kuate, Defo B; Kucuk, Bicer B; Lam, H; Lan, Q; Laryea, D O; Leung, R; Li, Y; Lipshultz, S E; Wilkinson, J D; Simard, E P; Liu, Y; Phillips, M R; Xiao, Q; Lloyd, B K; Lunevicius, R; Pope, D; Ma, S; Magdy, Abd El Razek H; Magdy, Abd El Razek M; Marcenes, W; Meaney, P A; Margolis, D J; Marzan, M B; Mason-Jones, A J; Mazorodze, T T; Mehari, A; Mehndiratta, M M; Woldeyohannes, S M; Tedla, B A; Memish, Z A; Mendoza, W; Meretoja, T J; Mhimbira, F A; Miller, T R; Mills, E J; Mohamed, Ibrahim N; Mohammad, K A; Mohammadi, A; Mola, G L D; Monasta, L; Montico, M; Ronfani, L; Monis, J D; Moore, A R; MoradiLakeh, M; Morawska, L; Norman, R E; Mori, R; Werdecker, A; Mueller, U O; Westerman, R; Murthy, S; Pourmalek, F; Nachega, J B; Paternina, Caicedo A J; Seedat, S; Tran, B X; Naheed, A; Naldi, L; Remuzzi, G; Nand, D; Nangia, V; Nash, D; Neupane, S; Newton, J N; Ngalesoni, F N; Nguhiu, P; Nguyen, Q L; Nomura, M; Nyakarahuka, L; Obermeyer, C M; Ogbo, F A; Oh, I; Olivares, P R; Olusanya, B O; Olusanya, J O; Opio, J N; Oren, E; Ota, E; Oyekale, A S; Mahesh, P A; Papantoniou, N; Stathopoulou, V; Park, E; Park, H; Patten, S B; Paul, V K; Roy, A; Sagar, R; Satpathy, M; Pereira, D M; Cortinovis, M; Perico, N; Pesudovs, K; Petzold, M; Pillay, J D; Polinder, S; Qorbani, M; Rafay, A; Rahman, M; Rahman, S U; Rai, R K; Ranabhat, C L; Rangaswamy, T; Rao, P V; Resnikoff, S; Rojas-Rueda, D; Ruhago, G M; Sunguya, B F; Saleh, M M; Sanabria, J R; Sanchez-Nino, M D; Sarmiento-Suarez, R; Sartorius, B; Sawhney, M; Saylan, M I; Schneider, I J C; Silva, D A S; Servan-Mori, E E; Shaikh, M A; Sharma, R; Shin, M; Yoon, S; Shiri, R; Shishani, K; Shiue, I; Sigfusdottir, I D; Silveira, D G A; Silverberg, J I; Yano, Y; Singh, O P; Singh, P K; Singh, V; Soneji, S; Soriano, J B; Sposato, L A; Sreeramareddy, C T; Stroumpoulis, K; Swaminathan, S; Sykes, B L; Tabares-Seisdedos, R; Tabb, K M; Talongwa, R T; Tavakkoli, M; Taye, B; Endries, A Y; Thomson, A J; Tobe-Gai, R; Topor-Madry, R; Towbin, J A; Tsala, Dimbuene Z; Tyrovolas, S; Ukwaja, K N; Uthman, O A; Vasankari, T; Venketasubramanian, N; Violante, F S; Vladimirov, S K; Vlassov, V V; Weichenthal, S; Wubshet, M; Xu, G; Yakob, B; Yip, P; Yonemoto, N; Younis, M Z; Yu, C; Zaidi, Z; Zaki, M E; Zeeb, H; Zhao, Y; Zuhlke, L J
Background In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Findings Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68% in 1990 to more than 80% in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91% coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78% of four antenatal care visits, 81% of in-facility delivery, and 87% of skilled birth attendance. Interpretation Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care-including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
PMCID:5224694
PMID: 27733286
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2621422
Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Lim, Stephen S; Allen, Kate; Bhutta, Zulficiar A; Dandona, Lalit; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W; Goldberg, Ellen M; Hay, Simon I; Holmberg, Mollie; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kutz, Michael J; Larson, Heidi J; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lopez, Alan D; Lozano, Rafael; McNellan, Claire R; Mokdad, Ali H; Mooney, Meghan D; Naghavi, Mohsen; Olsen, Helen E; Pigott, David M; Salomon, Joshua A; Vos, Theo; Wang, Haidong; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M; Abraham, Biju; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Achoki, Tom; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Arnav; Agrawal, Anurag; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Kedir Yimam; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi F; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Uzma; Alasfoor, Deena; AlBuhairan, Fadia S; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Dge, Robert William Aldr; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alkhateeb, Mohammad AB; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Christine; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Martin, Elena Alvarez; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H; Anderson, Benjamin O; Anderson, Gregory M; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Arnlov, Johan; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel GArthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barnighausen, Till; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basu, Sanjay; Bayou, Tigist Assefa; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bejot, Yannick; Bell, Michelle L; Bello, Aminu K; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Benzian, Habib; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabe, Eduardo; Bernal, Oscar Alberto; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bienhoff, Kelly A; Bikbov, Boris; Binagwaho, Agnes; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed; Bourne, Rupert RA; Brainin, Michael; Brauer, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Broday, David M; Brugha, Traolach S; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Butt, Zahid A; Cahill, Leah E; Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Carabin, Helene; Cardenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel; Caso, Valeria; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Cecilio, Pedro; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Che, Xuan; Chen, Alan Zian; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chibalabala, Mirriam; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Cirillo, Massimo; Coates, Matthew M; Coggeshall, Megan; Cohen, Aaron J; Cooke, Graham S; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cowie, Benjamin C; Crump, John A; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; das Neves, Jose; Davis, Adrian C; Davletov, Kairat; de Castro, EFilipa; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Gobbo, Liana C; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Jarlais, Don CDes; Deshpande, Aniruddha; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Dey, Subhojit; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhillon, Preet K; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, ERay; Doyle, Kerrie E; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Farid, Talha A; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Felicio, Manuela Mendonca; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G; Fernandes, Joao C; Ferrari, Alize J; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph RA; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle; Fowkes, FGerry R; Franca, Elisabeth Barboza; Franklin, Richard C; Fraser, Maya; Friedman, Joseph; Frostad, Joseph; Furst, Thomas; Gabbe, Belinda; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Gessner, Bradford D; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Godwin, William; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Graetz, Nicholas; Greenwell, Karen Fern; Griswold, Max; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gutierrez, Reyna A; Gyawali, Bishal; Haagsma, Juanita A; Haakenstad, Annie; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Harb, Hilda L; Haro, Josep Maria; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hoek, Hans W; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, HDean; Hoy, Damian G; Htet, Aung Soe; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Hsiang; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Idrisov, Bulat T; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Jacobs, Troy A; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B; James, Peter; Jansen, Henrica AFM; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jin, Ye; Jonas, Jost B; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Kandel, Amit; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine Kakizi; KarimIchani, Chante; Karunapema, Palitha; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Francoise; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemmer, Laura; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khang, Young-Ho; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Cho-il; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kissoon, Niranjan; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolte, Dhaval; Kosen, Soewarta; Kotsakis, Georgios A; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Krueger, Hans; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, GAnil; Kwan, Gene F; Kyu, Hmwe H; Lal, Aparna; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Langan, Sinead M; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Latif, Asma Abdul; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leung, Janni; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Lind, Margaret; Linn, Shai; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Patrick Y; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Lo, Loon-Tzian; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lucas, Robyn M; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mandavi, Mandi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mapoma, Chabila C; Margolis, David Joel; Martin, Randall V; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Massano, Joao; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; McGrath, John J; McKee, Martin; Meaney, Peter A; Mehari, Alem; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensink, Gert BM; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mesfin, Yonatan Moges; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mitchell, Philip B; Mock, Charles N; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Monasta, Lorenzo; Monis, Jonathan de la Cruz; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montanez; Montico, Marcella; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Mueller, Ulrich O; Murdoch, Michele E; Murimira, Brighton; Murray, Joseph; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Murthy, Srinivas; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Nachega, Jean B; Nagel, Gabriele; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Newton, Charles R; Newton, John N; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Nguhiu, Peter; Nguyen, Grant; Quyen Le Nguyen; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Nolte, Sandra; Nomura, Marika; Norheim, Ole F; Norrving, Bo; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olivares, Pedro R; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Osborne, Richard H; Ota, Erika; Owolabi, Mayowa O; Mahesh, PA; Park, Eun-Kee; Park, Hye-Youn; Parry, Charles D; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Patel, Tejas; Patel, Vikram; Caicedo, Angel JPaternina; Patil, Snehal T; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C; Paudel, Deepak; Pedro, Joao Mario; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frederic B; Pillay, Julian David; Pinho, Christine; Pishgar, Farhad; Polinder, Suzanne; Poulton, Richie G; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz HS; Radfar, Amir; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Raju, Murugesan; Ram, Usha; Rana, Saleem M; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Ranganathan, Kavitha; Rao, Puja C; Refaat, Amany H; Reitsma, Marissa B; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios; Rolm, Hirbo Shore; Roberts, Bayard; Rodriguez, Mina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Roy, Nobhojit; Sackey, Ben Benasco; Sagar, Rajesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R; Santomauro, Damian F; Santos, Itamar S; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Sawyer, Susan M; Schmidhuber, Josef; Schmidt, Maria Ines; Schneider, Ione JC; Schutte, Aletta E; Schwebel, David C; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shackelford, Katya; Shaheen, Amira; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Sheth, Kevin N; Shey, Muki; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Min-Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silpakit, Naris; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sligar, Amber; Soneji, Samir; Soreide, Kjetil; Sorensen, Reed JD; Soriano, Joan B; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stahl, Hans-Christian; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J; Steiner, Caitlyn; Stockl, Heidi; Stranges, Saverio; Strong, Mark; Sun, Jiandong; Sunguya, Bruno F; Sur, Patrick; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra EI; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Taylor, Hugh R; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku; Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Tekle, Dejen Yemane; Shifa, Girma Temam; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thakur, JS; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tonelli, Marcelo; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Tran, Bach Xuan; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Veerman, JLennert; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Verma, Raj Kumar; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Volkow, Patricia; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wang, Linhong; Wanga, Valentine; Watkins, David A; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Weiss, Daniel J; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles DA; Wolfe, Ingrid; Won, Sungho; Woolf, Anthony D; Workie, Shimelash Bitew; Wubshet, Mamo; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yakob, Bereket; Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene; Yan, Lijing L; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Zapata, Tomas; Zegeye, Elias Asfaw; Zhao, Yi; Zhou, Maigeng; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zonies, David; Murray, Christopher JL; GBD 2015 SDG Collaborators
Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.
PMCID:5055583
PMID: 27665228
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2374752
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T; Anderson, HRoss; Bhutta, Zulficiar A; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J; Cohen, Aaron J; Dandona, Lalit; Estep, Kara; Ferrari, Alize J; Frostad, Joseph J; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W; Godwin, William W; Griswold, Max; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kyu, Hmwe H; Larson, Heidi J; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Liu, Patrick Y; Lopez, Alan D; Lozano, Rafael; Marczak, Laurie; Mensah, George A; Mokdad, Ali H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Reitsma, Marissa B; Roth, Gregory A; Salomon, Joshua A; Sur, Patrick J; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Joseph A; Wang, Haidong; Zhao, Yi; Zhou, Maigeng; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Amanuel; Abajobir, Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Biju; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Ademi, Zanfina; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Adsuar, Jose C; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Agarwal, Arnav; Agrawal, Anurag; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ajala, Oluremi N; Akinyemiju, Tomi F; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore KM; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Aldridge, Robert William; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvarez Martin, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwar, Palwasha; Arnlov, Johan; Al Artaman; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Assadi, Reza; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel GArthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Baernighausen, Till; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Basu, Sanjay; Bans, Carolina; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bell, Michelle L; Bello, Aminu K; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabe, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhansali, Anil; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bikbov, Boris; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed D; Borschmann, Rohan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert RA; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Brenner, Hermann; Broday, David M; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Butt, Zahid A; Cahill, Leah E; Calabria, Bianca; Ricardo Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Cardenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David; Casey, Daniel C; Castaneda-Oquela, Carlos A; Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline; Estanislao Castro, Ruben; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chibalabala, Mirriam; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal A; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Coates, Matthew M; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cornaby, Leslie; Cortinovis, Monica; Crump, John A; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damasceno, Albertino; Dandona, Rakhi; Darby, Sarah C; Dargan, Paul I; das Neves, Jose; Davis, Adrian C; Davletov, Kairat; Filipa de Castro, E; De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Gobbo, Liana C; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribew, Amare; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhillon, Preet K; Diaz-Tome, Cesar; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, ERay; Doyle, Kerrie E; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Aquino Faraon, Emerito Jose; Farid, Talha A; Sofia E Sa Farinha, Carla; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph RA; Fleming, Tom; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle; Fowkes, FGerry R; Franklin, Richard C; Fuerst, Thomas; Futran, Neal D; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Goenka, Shifalika; Carmen Gomez-Cabrera, Mari; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guillemin, Francis; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutierrez, Reyna A; Haagsma, Juanita A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Handal, Alexis J; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Maria Haro, Josep; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Hassen, Tahir Ahmed; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana; Francisco Hernandez-Llanes, Norberto; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, HDean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Htet, Aung Soe; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J; Husseini, Abdullatif; Hutchings, Sally J; Huybrechts, Inge; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile; Inoue, Manami; Jacobs, Troy A; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B; Jansen, Henrica AFM; Jassal, Simerjot K; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jin, Ye; Johnson, Catherine O; Jonas, Jost B; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karimkhani, Chante; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khera, Sahil; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Cho-il; Kim, Daniel; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kissoon, Niranjan; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kopec, Jacek A; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Kromhout, Hans; Krueger, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kumar, GAnil; Kwan, Gene F; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lan, Qing; Larsson, Anders; Latif, Asma Abdul; Beatriz Lawrynowicz, Alicia Elena; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Leung, Janni; Levi, Miriam; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Yichong; Liang, Juan; Liu, Shiwei; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Maclntyre, Michael; Mahdavi, Mandi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Manamo, Wondimu Ayele Ayele; Mapoma, Chabila C; Marcenes, Wagner; Martin, Randall V; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Masiye, Felix; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; McGrath, John J; McKee, Martin; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehari, Alem; Mena-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensink, Gert BM; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mesfin, Yonatan Moges; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mock, Charles N; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mola, Glen Liddell D; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar; Montico, Marcella; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mullany, Erin; Mumford, John Everett; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Nachega, Jean B; Naheed, Aliya; Nangia, Vinay; Nassiri, Nariman; Newton, John N; Ng, Marie; Quyen Le Nguyen; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olivares, Pedro R; Olsen, Helen; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Orozco, Ricardo; Ortiz, Alberto; Ota, Erika; Mahesh, PA; Pana, Adrian; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Patel, Tejas; Caicedo, Angel JPaternina; Patil, Snehal T; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C; Pearce, Neil; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frederic B; Pillay, Julian David; Plass, Dietrich; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, CArden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prasad, Noela M; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz HS; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Raju, Murugesan; Ram, Usha; Rana, Saleem M; Ranganathan, Kavitha; Rao, Puja; Razo Garcia, Christian Aspacia; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Colin D; Rehm, Jurgen; Reinig, Nikolas; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Rivera, Juan A; Rolm, Hirbo Shore; Rodriguez, Anna; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Sonia; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roman, Yesenia; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R; Dolores Sanchez-Nino, Maria; Sanchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sandar, Logan; Santomauro, Damian F; Santos, Itamar S; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schmidhuber, Josef; Schmidt, Maria Ines; Schneider, Ione JC; Schoettker, Ben; Schutte, Aletta E; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Sheth, Kevin N; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Min-Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Shrime, Mark G; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Alves Silveira, Dayane Gabriele; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Sorensen, Reed JD; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stockl, Heidi; Stranges, Saverio; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra EI; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Landon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Belaynew Wasie; Taylor, Hugh R; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen; Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Tekle, Dejen Yemane; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thakur, JS; Thomas, Bernadette A; Thomas, Matthew Lloyd; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tobollik, Myriam; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey Allen; Bach Xuan Tran; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimparis, Nikolaos; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A; van Donkelaar, Aaron; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi; Veerman, JLennert; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Yanping; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wijeratne, Tissa; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles DA; Won, Sungho; Woolf, Anthony D; Wubshet, Mamo; Xavier, Denis; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yakob, Bereket; Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zhu, Jun; Zipkin, Ben; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna; Murray, Christopher JL; GBD 2015 Risk Factors
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden
PMCID:5388856
PMID: 27733284
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2374732
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Wang, Haidong; Naghavi, Mohsen; Allen, Christine; Barber, Ryan M; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Alan Zian; Coates, Matthew M; Coggeshall, Megan; Dandona, Lalit; Dicker, Daniel J; Erskine, Holly E; Ferrari, Alize J; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Foreman, Kyle; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Fraser, Maya S; Pullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W; Goldberg, Ellen M; Graetz, Nicholas; Haagsma, Juanita A; Hay, Simon I; Huynh, Chantal; Johnson, Catherine; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Kutz, Michael; Kyu, Hmwe H; Larson, Heidi J; Leung, Janni; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lind, Margaret; Lozano, Rafael; Marquez, Neal; Mensah, George A; Mikesell, Joe; Mokdad, Ali H; Mooney, Meghan D; Nguyen, Grant; Nsoesie, Elaine; Pigott, David M; Pinho, Christine; Roth, Gregory A; Salomon, Joshua A; Sandar, Logan; Silpakit, Naris; Sligar, Amber; Sorensen, Reed JD; Stanaway, Jeffrey; Steiner, Caitlyn; Teeple, Stephanie; Thomas, Bernadette A; Troeger, Christopher; VanderZanden, Amelia; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wanga, Valentine; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wolock, Timothy; Zoeckler, Leo; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abreu, Daisy MX; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Ademi, Zanfina; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Adsuar, Jose C; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Agarwal, Arnav; Agrawal, Anurag; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ajala, Oluremi N; Akanda, All Shafqat; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi F; Akseer, Nadia; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Alabed, Samer; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore KM; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alexander, Lily T; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Martin, Elena Alvarez; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H; Anderson, Benjamin; Anderson, Gregory M; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Aregay, Atsede Fantahun; Arnlov, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina SArsic; Al Artaman; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Atique, Suleman; Arthur Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G; Awasthi, Ashish; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barac, Aleksandra; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barnighausen, Till; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Bayou, Yibeltal Tebekaw; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Belay, Haileeyesus Adamu; Bell, Brent; Bell, Michelle L; Bello, Aminu K; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabe, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Biroscak, Brian J; Biryukov, Stan; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed D; Blosser, Christopher D; Bohensky, Megan A; Borschmann, Rohan; Bose, Dipan; Bourne, Rupert RA; Brainin, Michael; Brayne, Carol EG; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Brenner, Hermann; Brewer, Jerry D; Brown, Alexandria; Brown, Jonathan; Brugha, Traolach S; Buckle, Geoffrey Colin; Butt, Zahid A; Calabria, Bianca; Campos-Novato, Ismael Ricardo; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Carapetis, Jonathan R; Cardenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castaneda-Oquela, Carlos A; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Cercy, Kelly; Cerda, Jorge; Chen, Wanqing; Chew, Adrienne; Chiang, Peggy Pei -Chia; Chibalabala, Mirriam; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Cirillo, Massimo; Cohen, Aaron J; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cortinovis, Monica; Cowie, Benjamin C; Crump, John A; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Rakhi; Daoud, Farah; Darby, Sarah C; Dargan, Paul I; das Neves, Jose; Davey, Gail; Davis, Adrian C; Davitoiu, Dragos V; de Castro, EFilipa; de Jager, Pieter; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhillon, Preet K; Diaz-Torne, Cesar; Ding, Eric L; dos Santos, Kadine Priscila Bender; Dossou, Edem; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Bartholow, Bruce; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Lycke, Christian; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Faghmous, Imad DA; Fahimi, Saman; Jose, Emerito; Farid, Talha A; Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia e; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G; Fernandes, Joao C; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph RA; Flaxman, Abraham; Foigt, Nataliya; Fowkes, FGerry R; Franca, Elisabeth Barboza; Franklin, Richard C; Friedman, Joseph; Frostad, Joseph; Hirst, Thomas; Futran, Neal D; Gall, Seana L; Gambashidze, Ketevan; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Ganguly, Parthasarathi; Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tsewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Gilmour, Stuart; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Giussani, Giorgia; Glaser, Elizabeth; Godwin, William W; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gosselin, Richard A; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Greaves, Felix; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gutierrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hancock, Jamie; Handal, Alexis J; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Heckbert, Susan R; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hilderink, Henk BM; Hoek, Hans W; Hogg, Robert S; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, HDean; Hotez, Peter J; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Htet, Aung Soe; Than Htike, Maung Maung; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Cheng; Huang, Hsiang; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Huybrechts, Inge; Huynh, Grace; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Iyer, Veena J; Jacobs, Troy A; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B; James, Peter; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayaraman, Sudha P; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Jonas, Jost B; Joshi, Tushar Kant; Kabir, Zubair; Karnak, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Kant, Surya; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karimkhani, Chante; Karletsos, Dimitris; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kasaeian, Amir; Katibeh, Marzieh; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Francoise; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemmer, Laura; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young-Ho; Khera, Sahil; Muthafer Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kissela, Brett M; Kissoon, Niranjan; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolte, Dhaval; Kopec, Jacek A; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Krog, Norun Hjertager; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kudom, Andreas A; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, GAnil; Kwan, Gene F; Lal, Aparna; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O; Langan, Sinead M; Lansingh, Van C; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Latif, Asma Abdul; Lawrynowicz, Alicia Elena Beatriz; Leigh, James; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yongmei; Lindsay, MPatrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Patrick Y; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lo, Loon-Tzian; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lucas, Robyn M; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A; Ma, Stefan; Pedro Machado, Vasco Manuel; Mackay, Mark T; MacLachlan, Jennifer H; Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy; Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Ayele Manamo, Wondimu Ayele; Mandisarisa, John; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Chabila C; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David Joel; Martin, Gerard Robert; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Massano, Joao; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; McGarvey, Stephen Theodore; McGrath, John J; Mckee, Martin; McMahon, Brian J; Meaney, Peter A; Mehari, Alem; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mena-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mock, Charles N; Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Karzan; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohan, Viswanathan; Mola, Glen Liddell D; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar; Montero, Pablo; Montico, Marcella; Montine, Thomas J; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Morgan, Katherine; Mori, Rintaro; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich; Satyanarayana Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata; Murthy, Srinivas; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Nachega, Jean B; Nagel, Gabriele; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naik, Nitish; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Nash, Denis; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Subas; Newton, Charles R; Newton, John N; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Quyen Le Nguyen; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nkamedjie Pete, Patrick Martial; Nomura, Marika; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Paul E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Ojelabi, Foluke Adetola; Olivares, Pedro R; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Osman, Majdi; Ota, Erika; Ozdemir, Raziye; Pa, Mahesh; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Pant, Puspa Raj; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Park, Jae-Hyun; Parry, Charles D; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Caicedo, Angel JPaternina; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C; Paul, Vinod K; Pearce, Neil; Pedro, Joao Mario; Stokic, Ljiljana Pejin; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frederic B; Pillay, Julian David; Plass, Dietrich; Platts-Mills, James A; Polinder, Suzanne; Pope, CArden; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Qorbani, Mostafa; Quame-Amaglo, Justice; Quistberg, DAlex; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajavi, Zhale; Rajsic, Sasa; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Ranabhat, Chhabi L; Rangaswamy, Thara; Rao, Puja; Rao, Sowmya R; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jurgen; Reitsma, Marissa B; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikofff, Serge; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Ricci, Stefano; Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios; Roberts, Bayard; Roca, Anna; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Roy, Nawal K; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Sagar, Rajesh; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez-Nino, Maria Dolores; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Santos, Itamar S; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schaub, Michael P; Schmidt, Maria Ines; Schneider, Ione JC; Schottker, Ben; Schutte, Aletta E; Schwebel, David C; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shackelford, Katya A; Shaddick, Gavin; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Shen, Ziyan; Shepard, Donald S; Sheth, Kevin N; Shetty, Balakrishna P; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Min-Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Shrime, Mark G; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silberberg, Donald H; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Simard, Edgar P; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Singh, Virendra; Soneji, Samir; Soreide, Kjetil; Soriano, Joan B; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stranges, Saverio; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sunguya, Bruno F; Sur, Patrick; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra EI; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Takala, Jukka S; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tandon, Nikhil; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Taylor, Hugh R; Ao, Braden JTe; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen; Ten Have, Margreet; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tirschwell, David L; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Nx, Jeffrey Allen Towb; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach Xuan; Truelsen, Thomas; Trujillo, Ulises; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Uthman, Olalekan A; Van Dingenen, Rita; Van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Vidavalur, Ramesh; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Wagner, Joseph A; Wagner, Gregory R; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wang, Linhong; Watkins, David A; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; White, Richard A; Wijeratne, Tissa; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Wolfe, Charles DA; Won, Sungho; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Xavier, Denis; Xiao, Qingyang; Xu, Gelin; Yakob, Bereket; Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene; Yan, Lijing L; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yonga, Gerald; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Shicheng; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zannad, Faiez; Zavala, Diego E; Zeeb, Hajo; Zeleke, Berihun M; Zhang, Hao; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zonies, David; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna; Vos, Theo; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher JL; GBD 015 Mortality and Causes Death
Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems
PMCID:5388903
PMID: 27733281
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2374702
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Vos, Theo; Allen, Christine; Arora, Megha; Barber, Ryan M; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Brown, Alexandria; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Alan Z; Coggeshall, Megan; Cornaby, Leslie; Dandona, Lalit; Dicker, Daniel J; Dilegge, Tina; Erskine, Holly E; Ferrari, Alize J; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Fleming, Tom; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W; Goldberg, Ellen M; Graetz, Nicholas; Haagsma, Juanita A; Johnson, Catherine O; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Kawashima, Toana; Kemmer, Laura; Khalil, Ibrahim A; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kyu, Hmwe H; Leung, Janni; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lopez, Alan D; Lozano, Rafael; Marczak, Laurie; Mensah, George A; Mokdad, Ali H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nguyen, Grant; Nsoesie, Elaine; Olsen, Helen; Pigott, David M; Pinho, Christine; Rankin, Zane; Reinig, Nikolas; Salomon, Joshua A; Sandar, Logan; Smith, Alison; Stanaway, Jeffrey; Steiner, Caitlyn; Teeple, Stephanie; Thomas, Bernadette A; Troeger, Christopher; Wagner, Joseph A; Wang, Haidong; Wanga, Valentine; Whiteford, Harvey A; Zoeckler, Leo; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abraham, Biju; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME; Ackerman, Ilana N; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Ademi, Zanfina; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Agarwal, Arnav; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ajala, Oluremi N; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore KM; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alexander, Lily T; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H; Anderson, Gregory M; Anderson, Benjamin; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Aregay, Atsede Fantahun; Arnlov, Johan; Al Artaman; Asayesh, Hamid; Assadi, Reza; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel GArthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barac, Aleksandra; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barnighausen, Till; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Basu, Arindam; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Bell, Brent; Bell, Michelle L; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Benzian, Habib; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabe, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bienhofff, Kelly; Bikbov, Boris; Biryukov, Stan; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed; Borschmann, Rohan; Boufous, Soufiane; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Brown, Jonathan; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Buckle, Geoffrey Colin; Butt, Zahid A; Calabria, Bianca; Ricardo Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Cesar Campuzano, Julio; Carabin, Helene; Cardenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Cirillo, Massimo; Coates, Matthew M; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Cooper, Cyrus; Cortinovis, Monica; Crump, John A; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Dandona, Rakhi; Daoud, Farah; Dargan, Paul I; das Neves, Jose; Davey, Gail; Davis, Adrian C; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Gobbo, Liana C; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhillon, Preet K; Diaz-Torne, Cesar; Ding, Eric L; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endres, Matthias; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Estep, Kara; Farid, Talha A; Sofia e Sa Farinha, Carla; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Felson, David T; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G; Fernandes, Joao C; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph RA; Foreman, Kyle; Fowkes, Gerry R; Fox, Jordan; Franklin, Richard C; Friedman, Joseph; Frostad, Joseph; Furst, Thomas; Futran, Neal D; Gabbe, Belinda; Ganguly, Parthasarathi; Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gibney, Katherine B; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Glaser, Elizabeth; Godwin, William W; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Grainger, Rebecca; Greaves, Felix; Guillemin, Francis; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gutierrez, Reyna A; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hancock, Jamie; Handal, Alexis J; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Maria Haro, Josep; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Roderick J; Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hoek, Hans W; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, HDean; Hoy, Damian G; Htet, Aung Soe; Huang, Hsiang; Huang, John J; Huynh, Chantal; Iannarone, Marissa; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Iyer, Veena J; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Jin, Ye; Jonas, Jost B; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karimkhani, Chante; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Karimkhani, Chante; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Keren, Andre; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khaiff, Abdur Rahman; Khaiff, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young-Ho; Khera, Sahil; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Pauline; Kim, Cho-il; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kissoon, Niranjan; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolte, Dhaval; Kopec, Jacek A; Kosen, Soewarta; Kotsakis, Georgios A; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kudom, Andreas A; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kumar, GAnil; Kutz, Michael; Kwan, Gene F; Lal, Aparna; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O; Langan, Sinead M; Larsson, Anders; Lavados, Pablo M; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Lo, Warren D; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Looker, Katharine J; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A; Mackay, Mark T; Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy; Mahdavi, Mandi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David Joel; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Masiye, Felix; Massano, Joao; McGarvey, Stephen Theodore; McGrath, John J; McKee, Martin; McMahon, Brian J; Meaney, Peter A; Mehari, Alem; Meija-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mitchell, Philip B; Mock, Charles N; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar; Montico, Marcella; Mooney, Meghan D; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mullany, Erin; Mumford, John Everett; Murdoch, Michele E; Nachega, Jean B; Nagel, Gabriele; Naheed, Aliya; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Newton, John N; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Quyen Le Nguyen; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nkamedjie Pete, Patrick Martial; Nona, Joan M; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nunes, Bruno P; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olivares, Pedro R; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Ortiz, Alberto; Osman, Majdi; Ota, Erika; Mahesh, PA; Park, Eun-Kee; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; de Azeredo Passos, Valeria Maria; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frederic B; Pillay, Julian David; Pishgar, Farhad; Plass, Dietrich; Platts-Mills, James A; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz HS; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Rao, Puja; Refaat, Amany H; Reitsma, Marissa B; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikofff, Serge; Reynolds, Alex; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus; Rolm, Hirbo Shore; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Sagar, Rajesh; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sanabria, Juan R; Dolores Sanchez-Nino, Maria; Santos, Itamar S; Santos, Joao Vasco; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schaub, Michael P; Schmidt, Maria Ines; Schneider, Ione JC; Schottker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shackelford, Katya A; Shaheen, Amira; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Sharma, Rajesh; Sharma, Upasana; Shen, Jiabin; Shepard, Donald S; Sheth, Kevin N; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Min-Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Shrime, Mark G; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Alves Silveira, Dayane Gabriele; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Sivonda, Anna; Skirbekk, Vegard; Skogen, Jens Christoffer; Sligar, Amber; Silwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soreide, Kjetil; Soriano, Joan B; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J; Steiner, Timothy J; Steinke, Sabine; Stovner, Lars; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sunguya, Bruno F; Sur, Patrick; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra EI; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Takala, Jukka S; Landon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Taylor, Hugh R; Te Ao, Braden J; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Tran, Bach Xuan; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A; van Gool, Coen H; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Verma, Raj Kumar; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey K; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wang, Linhong; Watkins, David A; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; White, Richard A; Williams, Hywel C; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles DA; Won, Sungho; Woodbrook, Rachel; Wubshet, Mamo; Xavier, Denis; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yan, Lijing L; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zeeb, Hajo; Zhou, Maigeng; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna; Murray, Christopher JL; GBD 2015 Dis Injury Incidence
Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available
PMCID:5055577
PMID: 27733282
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2374712
Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Wang, Haidong; Bhutta, Zulfiriar A; Coates, Matthew M; Coggeshall, Megan; Dandona, Lalit; Diallo, Khassoum; Franca, Elisabeth Barboza; Fraser, Maya; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W; Hay, Simon I; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kita, Maaya; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Larson, Heidi J; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lind, Margaret; Lopez, Alan D; Lozano, Rafael; Mensah, George A; Mikesell, Joseph B; Mokdad, Ali H; Mooney, Meghan D; Nguyen, Grant; Rakovac, Ivo; Salomon, Joshua A; Silpakit, Naris; Sligar, Amber; Sorensen, Reed JD; Vos, Theo; Zhu, Jun; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Achoki, Tom; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Agarwal, Arnav; Ajala, Oluremi N; Akinyemiju, Tomi F; Akseer, Nadia; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore KM; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Martin, Elena Alvarez; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H; Anderson, Gregory M; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Arnlov, Johan; Al Artaman; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Assadi, Reza; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel GArthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Banigbe, Bolanle F; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barnighausen, Till; Barrero, Lope H; Bayou, Tigist Assefa; Bayou, Yibeltal Tebekaw; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Bello, Aminu K; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabe, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bikbov, Boris; Birlik, Sait Mentes; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed D; Bourne, Rupert RA; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Brown, Alexandria; Buckle, Geoffrey Colin; Burch, Michael; Butt, Zahid A; Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Cardenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C; Castaneda-Oquela, Carlos A; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cercy, Kelly; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Cooper, Cyrus; Cornaby, Leslie; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Rakhi; das Neves, Jose; Davis, Adrian C; de Jager, Pieter; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Jarlais, Don CDes; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhillon, Preet K; Ding, Eric L; Doshi, Pratik Pinal; Doyle, Kerrie E; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino; Farid, Talha A; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Joao C; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph RA; Foigt, Nataliya; Franklin, Richard C; Friedman, Joseph; Furst, Thomas; Gambashidze, Ketevan; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Ganguly, Parthasarathi; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Gelefinse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gyawali, Bishal; Haagsma, Juanita A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hancock, Jamie; Handal, Alexis J; Hankey, Graeme J; Harb, Hilda L; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Harun, Kimani M; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Roderick J; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hoek, Hans W; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, HDean; Hotez, Peter J; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Huang, Hsiang; Huiart, Laetitia; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Idrisov, Bulat T; Innos, Kaire; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jin, Ye; Jonas, Jost B; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Karnak, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Kang, Gagandeep; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Francoise; Kazanjan, Konstantin; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young -Ho; Khonelidze, Irma; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Cho-il; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kissoon, Niranjan; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kudom, Andreas A; Kumar, GAnil; Kyu, Hmwe H; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O; Lansingh, Van C; Larsson, Anders; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Lindsay, MPatrice; Liu, Patrick Y; Liu, Shiwei; Lloyd, Belinda K; Lo, Warren D; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Low, Nicola; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A; Ma, Stefan; Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy; Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy; Mandavi, Mandi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mapoma, Chabila C; Marcenes, Wagner; -Raga, Jose Martinez; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masiye, Felix; McGrath, John J; Meaney, Peter A; Mehari, Alem; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mock, Charles N; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Mueller, Ulrich O; Murphy, Georgina AV; Murthy, Srinivas; Nachega, Jean B; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Neupane, Subas; Newton, Charles R; Newton, John N; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Nguhiu, Peter; Quyen Le Nguyen; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Ojelabi, Foluke Adetola; Olivares, Pedro R; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Oren, Eyal; Ota, Erika; Mahesh, PA; Park, Eun-Kee; Park, Hye-Youn; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Caicedo, Angel JPaternina; Patten, Scott B; Pedro, Joao Mario; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Pillay, Julian David; Pishgar, Farhad; Polinder, Suzanne; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz HS; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz; Ur Rahman, Sajjad; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Raju, Murugesan; Ram, Usha; Rana, Saleem M; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Rao, Puja; Refaat, Amany H; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Reynolds, Alex; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A; Roy, Ambuj; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Sagar, Rajesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez-Nino, Maria Dolores; Santos, Itamar S; Santos, Joao Vasco; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schneider, Ione JC; Schottker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Setegn, Tesfaye; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Sheth, Kevin N; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Shin, Min-Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shuie, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silverberg, Jonathan; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Singh, Virendra; Soriano, Joan B; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steel, Nicholas; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra EI; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen; Tekle, Tesfaye; Shifa, Girma Temam; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thapa, Kiran; Thomson, Alan J; -Lyman, Andrew LThorne; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Tran, Bach Xuan; Troeger, Christopher; Truelsen, Thomas; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A; Vaezghasemi, Masoud; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Verma, Raj Kumar; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey K; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Yanping; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Weiss, Daniel J; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Widdowson, Marc -Alain; Wijeratne, Tissa; Williams, Thomas Neil; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles DA; Wolfe, Ingrid; Won, Sungho; Wubshet, Mamo; Xiao, Qingyang; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yakob, Bereket; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zeeb, Hajo; Zhang, Hao; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zodpey, Sanjay; Murray, Christopher JL; GBD 2015 Child Mortality
Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.7-6.0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52.0% (95% UI 50.7-53.3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42.4% (41.3-43.6) to 2.6 million (2.6-2.7) neonatal deaths and 47.0% (35.1-57.0) to 2.1 million (1.8-2.5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3.0% (2.6-3.3), falling short of the 4.4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4.4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10.3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
PMCID:5224696
PMID: 27733285
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2374742
Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Mokdad, Ali H; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Hossein; Daoud, Farah; El Bcheraoui, Charbel; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Khalil, Ibrahim; Afshin, Ashkan; Tuffaha, Marwa; Charara, Raghid; Barber, Ryan M; Wagner, Joseph; Cercy, Kelly; Kravitz, Hannah; Coates, Matthew M; Robinson, Margaret; Estep, Kara; Steiner, Caitlyn; Jaber, Sara; Mokdad, Ali A; O'Rourke, Kevin F; Chew, Adrienne; Kim, Pauline; El Razek, Mohamed Magdy Abd; Abdalla, Safa; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abraham, Jerry P; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Al-Nehmi, Abdulwahab A; Akanda, Ali S; Al Ahmadi, Hanan; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Al Rayess, Zulfa A; Alasfoor, Deena; AlBuhairan, Fadia S; Aldhahri, Saleh F; Alghnam, Suliman; Alhabib, Samia; Al-Hamad, Nawal; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Syed Danish; Alkhateeb, Mohammad; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Alomari, Mahmoud A; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Al-Sheyab, Nihaya; Alsowaidi, Shirina; Al-Thani, Mohamed; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anwari, Palwasha; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana; Assabri, Ali M; Assadi, Reza; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Bakfalouni, Talal; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Bedi, Neeraj; Bhakta, Amit R; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R A; Danawi, Hadi; Das, Jai; Deribew, Amare; Ding, Eric L; Durrani, Adnan M; Elshrek, Yousef; Ibrahim, Mohamed E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Faghmous, Imad A D; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Gankpe, Fortune G; Ginawi, Ibrahim; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Gupta, Rahul; Habash, Rami M; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hamdouni, Hayet; Hamidi, Samer; Harb, Hilda L; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hsairi, Mohamed; Husseini, Abdullatif; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jha, Vivekanand; Jonas, Jost B; Karam, Nadim E; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassa, Nega Assefa; Kaul, Anil; Khader, Yousef; Khalifa, Shams Eldin A; Khan, Ejaz A; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khoja, Tawfik; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Kinfu, Yohannes; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mansourian, Morteza; Marcenes, Wagner; Farid, Habibolah Masoudi; Mehari, Alem; Mehio-Sibai, Abla; Memish, Ziad A; Mensah, George A; Mohammad, Karzan A; Nahas, Ziad; Nasher, Jamal T; Nawaz, Haseeb; Nejjari, Chakib; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Omer, Saad B; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Peprah, Emmanuel K; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qato, Dima M; Qorbani, Mostafa; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh K; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Sowmya R; Refaat, Amany H; Resnikoff, Serge; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Saade, Georges; Saeedi, Mohammad Y; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Saleh, Shadi; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Setegn, Tesfaye; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shishani, Kawkab; Sliwa, Karen; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Uthman, Olalekan A; Westerman, Ronny; Younis, Mustafa Z; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Zannad, Faiez; Roth, Gregory A; Wang, Haidong; Naghavi, Mohsen; Vos, Theo; Al Rabeeah, Abdullah A; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L
BACKGROUND: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. METHODS: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. FINDINGS: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90.3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17.2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186.7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26.9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83.3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60-80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3.7% to 7.5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
PMID: 27568068
ISSN: 2214-109x
CID: 2281432
Erratum: Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet HIV (2016) 3 (e361-e387) PII: S235230181630087X DOI: 10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30087-X)
Wang, Haidong; Wolock, Tim M.; Carter, Austin; Nguyen, Grant; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I.; Mills, Edward J.; Trickey, Adam; Msemburi, William; Coates, Matthew M.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Fraser, Maya S.; Sligar, Amber; Salomon, Joshua; Larson, Heidi J.; Friedman, Joseph; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Razek, Mohamed Magdy Abd El; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Lami, Faris Hasan Al; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K.M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed S.; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Mohammad, Rajaa; Al-Raddadi, Salem; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Anwari, Palwasha; Ã"žrnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Assadi, Reza; Atique, Suleman; Atkins, Lydia S.; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Barac, Aleksandra; Bärnighausen, Till; Basu, Arindam; Bayou, Tigist Assefa; Bayou, Yibeltal Tebekaw; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhatia, Eesh; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bikbov, Boris; Birlik, Sait Mentes; Bisanzio, Donal; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Brown, Alexandria; Burch, Michael; Butt, Zahid A.; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Chang, Hsing Yi; Chang, Jung chen; Chavan, Laxmikant; Chen, Wanqing; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia; Chibalabala, Mirriam; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee Young Jasmine; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G.; Cooper, Cyrus; Dahiru, Tukur; Damtew, Solomon Abreha; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; das Neves, José; de Jager, Pieter; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Ding, Eric L.; Doshi, Pratik Pinal; Driscoll, Tim R.; Dubey, Manisha; Elshrek, Yousef Mohamed; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Faghmous, Imad D.A.; Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sa; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Fernandes, Joao C.; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph Robert Ander; Foigt, Nataliya; Fullman, Nancy; Fürst, Thomas; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho; Gebre, Teshome; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gething, Peter W.; Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Glaser, Elizabeth; Goenka, Shifalika; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goto, Atsushi; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guimaraes, Mark D.C.; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Haagsma, Juanita; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L.; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Haro, Josep Maria; Harun, Kimani M.; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hedayati, Mohammad T.; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hoek, Hans W.; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hoy, Damian G.; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Hsiang; Huang, John J.; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Innos, Kaire; Iyer, Veena J.; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jonas, Jost B.; Kabir, Zubair; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karletsos, Dimitris; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young Ho; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Yun Jin; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kivipelto, Miia; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, G. Anil; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O.; Langan, Sinead M.; Lansingh, Van C.; Larsson, Anders; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Li, Yongmei; Lim, Stephen S.; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Shiwei; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd El; Mahdavi, Mahdi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Makhlouf, Carla; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Marcenes, Wagner; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Mayosi, Bongani M.; McKee, Martin; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B.; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Miller, Ted R.; Mikesell, Joseph; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mokdad, Ali H.; Monasta, Lorenzo; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Mori, Rintaro; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Murimira, Brighton; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Naheed, Aliya; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Nash, Denis; Nawaz, Haseeb; Nejjari, Chakib; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In Hwan; Ojelabi, Foluke Adetola; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ota, Erika; Padukudru, Mahesh Anand; Park, Hye Youn; Park, Jae Hyun; Patil, Snehal T.; Patten, Scott B.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pearson, Katherine; Peprah, Emmanuel Kwame; Doyle, Kerrie E.; Pereira, David M.; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Pillay, Julian David; Plass, Dietrich; Polinder, Suzanne; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prokop, David M.; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Rana, Saleem M.; Rao, Paturi Vishnupriya; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roy, Ambuj; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya; Sagar, Rajesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R.; Santos, Itamar S.; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Sawhney, Monika; Schutte, Aletta E.; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silpakit, Naris; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soneji, Samir; Sorensen, Reed J.D.; Soriano, Joan B.; Soti, David O.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steel, Nicholas; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tekle, Tesfaye; Shifa, Girma Temam; Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thapa, Kiran; Thomson, Alan J.; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Topor-Madry, Roman; Towbin, Jeffrey Allen; Tran, Bach Xuan; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimparis, Nikolaos; Tura, Abera Kenay; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Venketasubramanian, N.; Vladimirov, Sergey K.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wang, Linhong; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Wijeratne, Tissa; Wilkinson, James D.; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles D.A.; Won, Sungho; Wong, John Q.; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yakob, Bereket; Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Yu, Shicheng; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zeeb, Hajo; Zhang, Hao; Zhao, Yong; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zoeckler, Leo; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna; Lopez, Alan D.; Murray, Christopher J.L.
GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980"“2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361"“87"”In this Article, Kerrie E Doyle and David M Pereira have been added to the list of collaborators and Claudia C Pereira has been removed. These corrections have been made as of Aug 22, 2016.
SCOPUS:84991574497
ISSN: 2352-3018
CID: 4184042
Economic downturns, universal health coverage, and cancer mortality in high-income and middle-income countries, 1990-2010: a longitudinal analysis
Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watkins, Johnathan; Noor, Aisyah Mohd; Williams, Callum; Ali, Raghib; Sullivan, Richard; Zeltner, Thomas; Atun, Rifat
BACKGROUND: The global economic crisis has been associated with increased unemployment and reduced public-sector expenditure on health care (PEH). We estimated the effects of changes in unemployment and PEH on cancer mortality, and identified how universal health coverage (UHC) affected these relationships. METHODS: For this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the World Bank and WHO (1990-2010). We aggregated mortality data for breast cancer in women, prostate cancer in men, and colorectal cancers in men and women, which are associated with survival rates that exceed 50%, into a treatable cancer class. We likewise aggregated data for lung and pancreatic cancers, which have 5 year survival rates of less than 10%, into an untreatable cancer class. We used multivariable regression analysis, controlling for country-specific demographics and infrastructure, with time-lag analyses and robustness checks to investigate the relationship between unemployment, PEH, and cancer mortality, with and without UHC. We used trend analysis to project mortality rates, on the basis of trends before the sharp unemployment rise that occurred in many countries from 2008 to 2010, and compared them with observed rates. RESULTS: Data were available for 75 countries, representing 2.106 billion people, for the unemployment analysis and for 79 countries, representing 2.156 billion people, for the PEH analysis. Unemployment rises were significantly associated with an increase in all-cancer mortality and all specific cancers except lung cancer in women. By contrast, untreatable cancer mortality was not significantly linked with changes in unemployment. Lag analyses showed significant associations remained 5 years after unemployment increases for the treatable cancer class. Rerunning analyses, while accounting for UHC status, removed the significant associations. All-cancer, treatable cancer, and specific cancer mortalities significantly decreased as PEH increased. Time-series analysis provided an estimate of more than 40,000 excess deaths due to a subset of treatable cancers from 2008 to 2010, on the basis of 2000-07 trends. Most of these deaths were in non-UHC countries. INTERPRETATION: Unemployment increases are associated with rises in cancer mortality; UHC seems to protect against this effect. PEH increases are associated with reduced cancer mortality. Access to health care could underlie these associations. We estimate that the 2008-10 economic crisis was associated with about 260,000 excess cancer-related deaths in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development alone. FUNDING: None.
PMID: 27236345
ISSN: 1474-547x
CID: 2281452
