Faculty Bibliography

The transformation of patient-clinician relationships with AI-based medical advice is discussed. many new tools are based on entirely new "˜black-box"™ AI-based technologies, whose inner workings are likely not fully understood by patients or clinicians. Most patients with Type 1 diabetes now use continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps to tightly manage their disease. Their clinicians carefully review the data streams from both devices to recommend dosage adjustments. Recently new automated recommender systems to monitor and analyze food intake, insulin doses, physical activity, and other factors influencing glucose levels, and provide data-intensive, AI-based recommendations on how to titrate the regimen, are in different stages of FDA approval using "˜black box"™ technology, which is an alluring proposition for a clinical scenario that requires identification of meaningful patterns in complex and voluminous data.

The rapid spread of COVID-19 cases in recent months has strained hospital resources, making rapid and accurate triage of patients presenting to emergency departments a necessity. Machine learning techniques using clinical data such as chest X-rays have been used to predict which patients are most at risk of deterioration. We consider the task of predicting two types of patient deterioration based on chest X-rays: adverse event deterioration (i.e., transfer to the intensive care unit, intubation, or mortality) and increased oxygen requirements beyond 6 L per day. Due to the relative scarcity of COVID-19 patient data, existing solutions leverage supervised pretraining on related non-COVID images, but this is limited by the differences between the pretraining data and the target COVID-19 patient data. In this paper, we use self-supervised learning based on the momentum contrast (MoCo) method in the pretraining phase to learn more general image representations to use for downstream tasks. We present three results. The first is deterioration prediction from a single image, where our model achieves an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.742 for predicting an adverse event within 96 hours (compared to 0.703 with supervised pretraining) and an AUC of 0.765 for predicting oxygen requirements greater than 6 L a day at 24 hours (compared to 0.749 with supervised pretraining). We then propose a new transformer-based architecture that can process sequences of multiple images for prediction and show that this model can achieve an improved AUC of 0.786 for predicting an adverse event at 96 hours and an AUC of 0.848 for predicting mortalities at 96 hours. A small pilot clinical study suggested that the prediction accuracy of our model is comparable to that of experienced radiologists analyzing the same information.

BACKGROUND: Clinical reasoning (CR) is a core component of medical training, yet residents often receive little feedback on their CR documentation. Here we describe the process of developing a machine learning (ML) algorithm for feedback on CR documentation to increase the frequency and quality of feedback in this domain.
METHOD(S): To create this algorithm, note quality first had to be rated by gold standard human rating. We selected the IDEA Assessment Tool-a note rating instrument across four domains (I=Interpretive summary, D=Differential diagnosis, E=Explanation of reasoning, A=Alternative diagnoses explained) that uses a 3-point Likert scale without descriptive anchors. To develop descriptive anchors we conducted an iterative process reviewing notes from the EHR written by medicine residents and validated the Revised-IDEA Assessment Tool using Messick's framework- content validity, response process, relation to other variables, internal structure, and consequences. Using the Hofstee standard setting method, cutoffs for high quality clinical reasoning for the IDEA and DEA scores were set. We then created a dataset of expertrated notes to create the ML algorithm. First, a natural language processing software was applied to the set of notes that enabled recognition and automatic encoding of clinical information as a diagnosis or disease (D's), a sign or symptom (E or A), or semantic qualifier (e.g. most likely). Input variables to the ML algorithm included counts of D's, E/A's, semantic qualifiers, and proximity of semantic qualifiers to disease/ diagnosis. ML output focused on DEA quality and was binarized to low or high quality CR. Finally, 200 notes were randomly selected for human validation review comparing ML output to human rated DEA score.
RESULT(S): The IDEA and DEA scores ranged from 0-10 and 0-6, respectively. IDEA score of >= 6.5 and a DEA score of >= 3 was deemed high quality. 252 notes were rated to create the dataset and 20% were rated by 3 raters with high intraclass correlation 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.90). 120 of these notes comprised the testing set for ML model development. The logistic regression model was the best performing model with an AUC 0.87 and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.65. 48 (40%) of the notes were high quality. There was substantial interrater reliability between ML output and human rating on the 200 note validation set with a Cohen's Kappa 0.64.
CONCLUSION(S): We have developed a ML algorithm for feedback on CR documentation that we hypothesize will increase the frequency and quality of feedback in this domain. We have subsequently developed a dashboard that will display the output of the ML model. Next steps will be to provide internal medicine residents' feedback on their CR documentation using this dashboard and assess the impact this has on their documentation quality. LEARNING OBJECTIVE #1: Describe the importance of high quality documentation of clinical reasoning. LEARNING OBJECTIVE #2: Identify machine learning as a novel assessment tool for feedback on clinical reasoning documentation

Pediatric sepsis imposes a significant burden of morbidity and mortality among children. While the speedy application of existing supportive care measures can substantially improve outcomes, further improvements in delivering that care require tools that go beyond recognizing sepsis and towards predicting its development. Machine learning techniques have great potential as predictive tools, but their application to pediatric sepsis has been stymied by several factors, particularly the relative rarity of its occurrence. We propose an alternate approach which focuses on predicting the provision of resuscitative care, rather than sepsis diagnoses or criteria themselves. Using three years of Emergency Department data from a large academic medical center, we developed a boosted tree model that predicts resuscitation within 6 hours of triage, and significantly outperforms existing rule-based sepsis alerts.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid and accurate triage of patients at the emergency department is critical to inform decision-making. We propose a data-driven approach for automatic prediction of deterioration risk using a deep neural network that learns from chest X-ray images, and a gradient boosting model that learns from routine clinical variables. Our AI prognosis system, trained using data from 3,661 patients, achieves an AUC of 0.786 (95% CI: 0.742-0.827) when predicting deterioration within 96 hours. The deep neural network extracts informative areas of chest X-ray images to assist clinicians in interpreting the predictions, and performs comparably to two radiologists in a reader study. In order to verify performance in a real clinical setting, we silently deployed a preliminary version of the deep neural network at NYU Langone Health during the first wave of the pandemic, which produced accurate predictions in real-time. In summary, our findings demonstrate the potential of the proposed system for assisting front-line physicians in the triage of COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND:Automated systems that use machine learning to estimate a patient's risk of death are being developed to influence care. There remains sparse transparent reporting of model generalizability in different subpopulations especially for implemented systems. METHODS:A prognostic study included adult admissions at a multi-site, academic medical center between 2015 and 2017. A predictive model for all-cause mortality (including initiation of hospice care) within 60 days of admission was developed. Model generalizability is assessed in temporal validation in the context of potential demographic bias. A subsequent prospective cohort study was conducted at the same sites between October 2018 and June 2019. Model performance during prospective validation was quantified with areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision recall curves stratified by site. Prospective results include timeliness, positive predictive value, and the number of actionable predictions. RESULTS:Three years of development data included 128,941 inpatient admissions (94,733 unique patients) across sites where patients are mostly white (61%) and female (60%) and 4.2% led to death within 60 days. A random forest model incorporating 9614 predictors produced areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision recall curves of 87.2 (95% CI, 86.1-88.2) and 28.0 (95% CI, 25.0-31.0) in temporal validation. Performance marginally diverges within sites as the patient mix shifts from development to validation (patients of one site increases from 10 to 38%). Applied prospectively for nine months, 41,728 predictions were generated in real-time (median [IQR], 1.3 [0.9, 32] minutes). An operating criterion of 75% positive predictive value identified 104 predictions at very high risk (0.25%) where 65% (50 from 77 well-timed predictions) led to death within 60 days. CONCLUSION/CONCLUSIONS:Temporal validation demonstrates good model discrimination for 60-day mortality. Slight performance variations are observed across demographic subpopulations. The model was implemented prospectively and successfully produced meaningful estimates of risk within minutes of admission.